Fox Mulder Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 well no but she started saying that hufflpuff should go for me for no reason other than me being horvat and pther than tht hasn't said anything except for her other post, her first post saying " " <---- littraly the only other thing she has said To be fair, that is an acceptable reason. Link to comment
Horvat Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I'll close sign ups tomorrow morning and hand out roles tomorrow pretty sure this is the post where JohnL addresses 112 saying, "please we neeeed you" idk what says mafia also this... am I mafia yet? Link to comment
Baer. Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I'm still trying to figure out this game lmao sorry if I'm not helpful yet Link to comment
Baka Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 If the Mafia forgot to submit a kill it could also just as likely include players who voted earlier and simply didn't get back on late but personally I feel like they chose not to kill anyone and took the conservative approach given the unknowns before Nightfall 1 and simply didn't want to give us any extra confirmations. Though IMO their best move would have been to hit Ravenclaw last night. To our benefit though with only 2 kills a night it is obvious who is who as the Mafia won't kill their own with so few players. Baka, Horvat, Heffy, or fwyfwed are almost a sure thing to be the Mafia target next. Horvat probably the least likely to get killed. Link to comment
NotMyBurroughs Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Ya so I'm not Mafia. Link to comment
DarthMelvin Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Ya so I'm not Mafia. Yeah same, I'm not either so that's 2 confirmed Link to comment
Beluga Whale Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 If the Mafia forgot to submit a kill it could also just as likely include players who voted earlier and simply didn't get back on late but personally I feel like they chose not to kill anyone and took the conservative approach given the unknowns before Nightfall 1 and simply didn't want to give us any extra confirmations. Though IMO their best move would have been to hit Ravenclaw last night. To our benefit though with only 2 kills a night it is obvious who is who as the Mafia won't kill their own with so few players. Baka, Horvat, Heffy, or fwyfwed are almost a sure thing to be the Mafia target next. Horvat probably the least likely to get killed. I'm pretty sure I'd be in a mix of potential mk's. Why do you think any of those listed players are likely mafia targets? Link to comment
Baka Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I'm pretty sure I'd be in a mix of potential mk's. Why do you think any of those listed players are likely mafia targets? The four duelists. JL listed this ***If a duelist dies at nightfall tomorrow, then the duel is considered a draw and no rewards will be given. The TP stand to gain 2 special abilities from the duels but killing one of the duelists voids one duel entirely. Horvat would be the unlikely target (assuming he isn't Mafia) because even if we don't lynch someone from Huffle killing him would bring the members of that house down to 2. Unless we lynch someone from Huffle who happens to be Mafia in which case Horvat may be the most likely to get hit as they may want to eliminate that house entirely as they will no longer have a foot in it. If we vote to lynch someone who is in Slytherin or Gryffindor and our target is TP odds are they will also avoid targeting that house rep as they would put their member in a 50/50 situation. fwybwed might be the most likely to get hit (if he is TP) given he is in the biggest house. At least that is how I imagine the Mafia may be thinking. Link to comment
g_bassi13 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 The Mafia not submitting their kill sounds more like a blunder than anything nefarious. And considering the likelihood of a lackey isn't likely at all, I think it's just inactivity. If it's just 4 people, it's not hard to see them getting their signals crossed, or someone forgetting to double check whether the kill was submitted. This happened some games ago when I was mafia. I don't remember how I played it off, but I tried to. Link to comment
Beluga Whale Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 The four duelists. JL listed this ***If a duelist dies at nightfall tomorrow, then the duel is considered a draw and no rewards will be given. The TP stand to gain 2 special abilities from the duels but killing one of the duelists voids one duel entirely. Horvat would be the unlikely target (assuming he isn't Mafia) because even if we don't lynch someone from Huffle killing him would bring the members of that house down to 2. Unless we lynch someone from Huffle who happens to be Mafia in which case Horvat may be the most likely to get hit as they may want to eliminate that house entirely as they will no longer have a foot in it. If we vote to lynch someone who is in Slytherin or Gryffindor and our target is TP odds are they will also avoid targeting that house rep as they would put their member in a 50/50 situation. fwybwed might be the most likely to get hit (if he is TP) given he is in the biggest house. At least that is how I imagine the Mafia may be thinking. Yeah that makes sense, I forgot to consider that for some reason. Link to comment
g_bassi13 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 The four duelists. JL listed this ***If a duelist dies at nightfall tomorrow, then the duel is considered a draw and no rewards will be given. The TP stand to gain 2 special abilities from the duels but killing one of the duelists voids one duel entirely. Horvat would be the unlikely target (assuming he isn't Mafia) because even if we don't lynch someone from Huffle killing him would bring the members of that house down to 2. Unless we lynch someone from Huffle who happens to be Mafia in which case Horvat may be the most likely to get hit as they may want to eliminate that house entirely as they will no longer have a foot in it. If we vote to lynch someone who is in Slytherin or Gryffindor and our target is TP odds are they will also avoid targeting that house rep as they would put their member in a 50/50 situation. fwybwed might be the most likely to get hit (if he is TP) given he is in the biggest house. At least that is how I imagine the Mafia may be thinking. The lynching of a Gryffindor or Slytherin member sense, but as you mentioned, guessing the mafia kill is based on assuming everyone who got into the duels was TP. If a single duellist was Mafia, which could be any of them, it would completely mess up that model you've built up. Link to comment
Beluga Whale Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I think we should just go for the scummiest player, too much WIFOMing can just lead us in circles. TRR is clearly evading the thread since I called him out yesterday. He's posted elsewhere on the forum today but hasn't checked in since his weak post last night. Virt posted a BS excuse after being called. He still hasn't made any actual game observations or "MVP" scum reads. Classic mafia Virt. 112 is nowhere to be found. Possible the scum from Hufflepuff who didn't submit a kill. Hashtag is the only player in Slytherin that wasn't active throughout yesterday. Unless there was scheming going, Baka or Time Lord would have submitted a mafia kill if they were mafia. Fox Mulder didn't show up to the thread yesterday until after the action deadline had passed. If someone from Gryffindor forgot to submit the mafia kill it probably was him. Otherwise still hasn't posted anything and could be the mafia since she wasn't around to submit a kill. TP leans: fwedbyed Horvat g_bassi 60% of the time my lists are accurate every time. Vote TRR Link to comment
Baka Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 The lynching of a Gryffindor or Slytherin member sense, but as you mentioned, guessing the mafia kill is based on assuming everyone who got into the duels was TP. If a single duellist was Mafia, which could be any of them, it would completely mess up that model you've built up. It is more so just a series of possible scenarios which I could keep going on with but it doesn't really change much if Mafia members are in the duel given it still holds risk. They could lose the duel and even if they win they are monitored by their house which will make it even harder to waste the ability for the TP. The best scenario they have is still to eliminate a TP while voiding a special entirely and keeping themselves as well hidden as possible. Say Horvat was Mafia and won his duel and we lynched TRR even if they killed 112 and gained control of that house it would expose Horvat early getting him killed and still ultimately get them the same results as killing a TP duelist but with a higher risk. I think it is best to prepare for their best move and catch them or simply force them into something less damaging for us or more damaging for them. I say this mainly for any special if we have any like a Watcher as that bunch would be the ones I look at. Link to comment
Baka Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Hashtag is the only player in Slytherin that wasn't active throughout yesterday. Unless there was scheming going, Baka or Time Lord would have submitted a mafia kill if they were mafia. I will note that Hashtag hadn't even read our house thread until this morning. Link to comment
NotMyBurroughs Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I will note that Hashtag hadn't even read our house thread until this morning. Woah woah woah. I thought we were all on a team Link to comment
DarthMelvin Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 but on maybe two in each house is a villain..... Link to comment
King Heffy Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Fox Mulder didn't show up to the thread yesterday until after the action deadline had passed. If someone from Gryffindor forgot to submit the mafia kill it probably was him. FM was more active in the house PM and wanted to get himself nominated for the duel. Vote Fox Mulder Link to comment
NotMyBurroughs Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I should probably read the first post and see what the duel is. Link to comment
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