You can look at possession metrics and xGF all you want, but you can expect 7 goals a game, it doesn't matter if they're not going in when it matters. The Lighting parked the bus and gave them the perimeter, and the Leafs were too satisfied with that. If that's what a whole period of sustained pressure with the season on the line gets you, then I don't know what to say. No adjustments were made.
They maybe woulda coulda shouda won, but chalking it up to bad luck would be a mistake, in my opinion. Not when it's the 6th time its happened. Different reasons this time, sure. Maybe the players that didn't show up last time almost played up to snuff now. But I don't see how it matters if they're just finding new ways of losing.
As someone how gets into the schadenfreude of the Leafs bouncing out early year, I'd love if they just ran it back with this same core again next year expecting a different result. That instinct just isn't there. Shuffling the bottom 6 isn't going to solve anything. Money isn't there for an elite defender.
Like even if you feel this was a 50/50 coin flip (I really don't), there would be harder more weighted flips coming against them for the next 3 rounds. This crutch some fans are using, saying it was the defending champions, is weak. Would you have rather faced the hurricanes, or the bruins, or the penguins, or the panthers? You shouldn't need to cherry pick your opponents, especially not for a first round matchup.
Just try the same thing again next year. I like the memes.