NHL Draft Lotto

[EastVanCanuck]

17 hours ago, canuckleheads fan said:

I know everybody wants Matthews  and in listening to Crawford, I think he'd be excellent, but I am still partial to Canadian kids.  We've had a lot of great Euro players over the years, Bure, the twins, Naslund, etc., and have exactly zero cups.

 

I hate to sound like Grapes, but for Canadian kids hockey is a passion not a pastime. Most Canadian kids  grow up immersed in hockey. Many are on skates from the time they can walk. They play street hockey, pond hockey, and go to bed dreaming of scoring the OT goal to win the cup. The Canadian kids will do anything to win a cup, including playing through some of the worst injuries. You don't overcome that kind of life-long muscle memory.

 

I don't dislike the European and American players, but from them always get the feeling that the NHL is a job, not a passion, and the cup is like an end of the year bonus, not something you live and die for. I give you Vrbata as an example. He said that if he wanted to be traded he would have been traded. If he was driven to win the cup he would have accepted a trade to any team in the playoff hunt. Instead he stayed mired on a crappy team because he didn't feel like moving. 

 

The best teams have almost always had a major Canadian influence and leadership, Edmonton with Gretzky and Messier, Chicago with Toews and Keith, LA with Doughty and Brown, Pittsburgh with Crosby, Letang and Fleury, NJ with Stevens, Niedermayer and Brodeur.

 

I would argue that some years in the past decade Washington has been as talented a team as there was in the league, yet zero cups, why? No Canadian leadership.

 

I live in the US and get the feeling from the kids here that football and basketball are the primary sports that kids want to excel in, and they come to hockey when they can't hit a 15 foot jumper. From there they dream of a national championship or Olympic gold, but the cup is not on their radar until their mid to late teens. I think the same is true of the Europeans, where Soccer is the number one sport, and even when they turn to hockey they dream of playing in the elite leagues and winning a world championship or Olympic gold. 

 

Thats why I'm really hoping that our new core is lead by Canadians. Just my two cents.

Yup what he said.  

[Roger Neilsons Towel]

[Roger Neilsons Towel]

[FireGillis]

2 hours ago, NUCKER67 said:

Has the lottery already been done? Seeing as they will reveal the results this Saturday, they would have to do the actual lottery beforehand? I don't think I've ever been so impatient and excited to see the results of a draft lottery before. 

No, it's done the day of and everyone in the lotto room is sequestered and not let out of the room until bill daly announces the results on tv.  Here's video of last year's draw.

 

http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=810726

 

Youtube version.

 

 

[Realtor Rod]

10 minutes ago, FireGillis said:

No, it's done the day of and everyone in the lotto room is sequestered and not let out of the room until bill daly announces the results on tv.  Here's video of last year's draw.

 

http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=810726

 

Youtube version.

 

 

So based off this video there are 4 balls drawn and the combination of those numbers determine the winner? Problem as I see it in the video is there must be a lot of combinations and the guy pulls who has those 4 ball combos out of a notebook in seconds. No tinfoil hat. Is that 1,001 combos? 

[Nucker 67]

25 minutes ago, Roger Neilson's Towel said:

This guy (who kind of resembles Patrick Kane), looks like he's filling his Depends. lol

[FireGillis]

8 minutes ago, Realtor Rod said:

So based off this video there are 4 balls drawn and the combination of those numbers determine the winner? Problem as I see it in the video is there must be a lot of combinations and the guy pulls who has those 4 ball combos out of a notebook in seconds. No tinfoil hat. Is that 1,001 combos? 

Heh, I thought the same thing last year.  The dude didn't even use a computer to match up the combo and did it by paper, so I was like wtf how did he match it so fast.  They must have some kind of system.

[Nucker 67]

It's all up to the balls, and a heaping amount of good luck. Is anyone doing anything special (superstitious) to "help" the Canucks get that #1? I'll be wearing only Canucks gear when they announce - Canucks pjs, socks, t-shirt, jersey, hat, while hugging my dog "Henrik Sedin" (yes, that's his actual name). lol

[Van 'Nuck]

On 22/04/2016 at 2:42 PM, Inge34 said:

As much as I like the idea of having a way of protecting the league from teams that intuitionally tank to get the top pick. I equally hate the idea that a team is just bad and going through transition and getting the shaft and picking worse that they truly are. I have been goofing around with the Draft simulator, just to see how many top three picks the Canucks would get. After a while I noticed that number was not that much. So I started from scratch and did 100 drafts, to give it a proper percentage to work from. Well the results were not that promising for the Canucks. 

 

1st - 6

2nd - 16

3rd - 2

4th - 6

5th - 58

6th - 12

 

Toronto won the Draft - 34

Columbus won - 16

Edmonton won - 14

 

Not a big fan of being a team in transition that finishes 28th in the league but picks 5th. I know it is just a lousy computerized simulator but it sure was deflating. 

Honestly Im fine with 5. Because the top 5 five players Im all fine getting. Matthews, 2 Fins Chychrun, and Tkachuk

[Inge34]

Just now, Van 'Nuck said:

Honestly Im fine with 5. Because the top 5 five players Im all fine getting. Matthews, 2 Fins Chychrun, and Tkachuk

I'm also fine with it. Wasn't try to whine or cry. It was just deflating that in the past years that the top 3 pick were not always lotto picks. So we suffer through a tough season and not have a higher percentage to get a top three pick, That's all. I know it's a crap shoot and when I ran the simulator it went against us and it could very well be a pleasant surprise. Tkachuk, Dubois, Chychrun all good picks out of the 5 hole, I guess we should be lucky that this is a real deep draft. 

[Wrecken]

4 hours ago, Inge34 said:

I'm also fine with it. Wasn't try to whine or cry. It was just deflating that in the past years that the top 3 pick were not always lotto picks. So we suffer through a tough season and not have a higher percentage to get a top three pick, That's all. I know it's a crap shoot and when I ran the simulator it went against us and it could very well be a pleasant surprise. Tkachuk, Dubois, Chychrun all good picks out of the 5 hole, I guess we should be lucky that this is a real deep draft. 

You are looking at it wrong. We have a good chance to move up too! We have the 3rd highest chance in the entire league to pick 1st 2nd or 3rd. Dont let all the doom sayers get to you.

[iinatcc]

On 4/25/2016 at 9:42 AM, canuckleheads fan said:

The best teams have almost always had a major Canadian influence and leadership, Edmonton with Gretzky and Messier, Chicago with Toews and Keith, LA with Doughty and Brown, Pittsburgh with Crosby, Letang and Fleury, NJ with Stevens, Niedermayer and Brodeur.

 

I would argue that some years in the past decade Washington has been as talented a team as there was in the league, yet zero cups, why? No Canadian leadership.

 

Thats why I'm really hoping that our new core is lead by Canadians. Just my two cents.

What about

 

2008 - Red Wings their core players and captain and alternate captains (except one) were European

Conn Smythe was Swedish

 

 

2012

 

Team Captains for both teams in the finals were Americans

None of the alternate captains in both teams were Canadians

Conn Smythe was an American

 

 

[canuckleheads fan]

On 4/26/2016 at 6:22 AM, iinatcc said:

What about

 

2008 - Red Wings their core players and captain and alternate captains (except one) were European

Conn Smythe was Swedish

 

 

2012

 

Team Captains for both teams in the finals were Americans

None of the alternate captains in both teams were Canadians

Conn Smythe was an American

 

 

If you read my post, it said "the best teams ALMOST ALWAYS have..." which is true. There will always be anomalies, but it is STILL Canada's game.

[iinatcc]

1 hour ago, canuckleheads fan said:

If you read my post, it said "the best teams ALMOST ALWAYS have..." which is true. There will always be anomalies, but it is STILL Canada's game.

Those are examples that spanned 5 years 2008 to 2012. So that 2 out of 5 which means it can happen quite frequently. 

Though you can also consider 2011 with the Canucks core being made up of mostly non-Canadians and the Bruins team captain is from Solvakia and it's MVP being from the US.

And it happened again in 2014 when the cup finals was between LAK and the NYR. Both whose core and top players is a mixture of nationalities with both team captains, once again, being American.

 

Anyways I can't see how Russians not wanting the Cup as much as Canadians. If you watch the various documentations like Red Army Hockey for the Russians is almost a way of life as much as the Canadians and if you look the the Red Army documentary the effort and sacrifices they made to play sport equals, if not exceeds, that of Canadians. Stories of vomiting blood and not being able to visit your dying father is pretty intense if you ask me.

 

[alfstonker]

There is no nationality to human behaviour imo. It much more depends on how a kid has grown up, the hardships he's faced, how much he sees success in hockey making his life happier and successful.

Many of the great Canadian hockey players were born into working class or fairly poor families but interestingly Jagr, a Czech, one of the best ever was from a relatively wealthy family. However even that may not be so surprising if Jagr inherited his father's determination to be successful.

 

Great hockey players are driven, just like great sportsmen are driven. Winning for them is a state of mind. Hockey is littered with stars who were/are not Canadian.

 

So no, I think the Canadian angle is not that relevant, other than in the sheer volume of hockey players produced.

[BradBest]

Question regarding the draft odds that I haven't seen explained anywhere... Do our odds increase for the 2nd and/or 3rd picks if say Toronto and/or Edmonton (who are above us) get their seeded pick?

So if Toronto gets the 1st and Edmonton the 2nd, do our odds increase to like 30% or do they stay the same at 11.3%?  I would think they increase but haven't seen an explanation for that scenario

[danaimo]

6 hours ago, BradBest said:

Question regarding the draft odds that I haven't seen explained anywhere... Do our odds increase for the 2nd and/or 3rd picks if say Toronto and/or Edmonton (who are above us) get their seeded pick?

So if Toronto gets the 1st and Edmonton the 2nd, do our odds increase to like 30% or do they stay the same at 11.3%?  I would think they increase but haven't seen an explanation for that scenario

In theory, yes.

If TOR and/or EDM get pick 1 or pick2 then our odds of getting 3 are increased.  The question is academic because VAN odds will not change unless you know the results of previous lottery selections and no one will know except the auditors doing the draw and a handful of NHL staff.  None of the draft lotto results will be made public until all lotto draws have been made and so in practice, no the odds will not change.

Bare in mind the NHL will not use a simulator  so any results you get from a simulator are 1. Irrelevant 2. Boring because no one else cares and 3. Irrelevant.  I repeated irrelevant because so many people on this site think that what they do on a simulator has an influence on reality. It is just a bit of fun. Nothing more.

[geoffcourtnall]

Something I learned as a poker player...  the odds are also far less relevant in the short term.  What I mean is that when it's only one real draft ( as opposed to hundreds of simulations) truly anything can happen and the odds don't help you much because they don't have a chance to correct things.  The difference between 20%, 13.5%, and 11.5% is insignificant, and certainly not worth tanking over. 

[Provost]

On 4/22/2016 at 2:46 PM, cuporbust said:

Like I've said before , odds are we pick 5th. Like it or not 

Actually not true... it has the single best odds of any position, but we have double the chance of NOT picking 5th as we do of picking it.

[theminister]

29 minutes ago, geoffcourtnall said:

Something I learned as a poker player...  the odds are also far less relevant in the short term.  What I mean is that when it's only one real draft ( as opposed to hundreds of simulations) truly anything can happen and the odds don't help you much because they don't have a chance to correct things.  The difference between 20%, 13.5%, and 11.5% is insignificant, and certainly not worth tanking over. 

I've been trying to tell people this. 

 

The odds don't mean that much when there is only one go around. Especially so with the percentages we are talking about. 

 

Someone will win, someone will lose. It's almost a statistical certainty. It has to happen that way. Some team is beating the odds and some team will get screwed.