Jonathan Dahlén | C/LW

[Bruce Boudreau]

On 3/16/2017 at 3:24 PM, Derp... said:

 

So there is some data on this that you may be interested in. It's a bit old, but still applies. As you can see most NHL players peek around age 23. The better players actually peek faster. For reference Granlund and Baertschi are probably going to produce at similar numbers to this year for the next 5 years. Boucher's make or break year is next year, whatever his production is will be fairly consistent through his 20's.

Horvat should still get a bit better offensively for the next 2 years.

I love this kind of stuff about what age players begin a decline and how long do you wait for a young player to develop before he is what he is without much significant improvement.

 

What does the data say for d men or goalies?

 

In other leagues like the NFL the drop off for Cornerbacks and Runningbacks at 30 is a steep cliff.

 

Also I have heard though not sure exactly but apparently the general rule of thumb in European Football is if you have not established yourself as a regular by age 23 you are pretty much a bust and will never reach your ceiling potential wise.

[Bruce Boudreau]

“While confirming conventional wisdom that players peak in their late 20s, the study proves it is wishful thinking for managers to expect a player in his mid-20s to continue improving significantly,” says Brander, an economist. “The vast majority of players are at 90 per cent of their best by age 24, although there are a few late bloomers.”

 

This quote was from a UBC study 3 years ago. Don't think he means goalies because they take longer to develop and play till later in their careers.

 

Forwards I could see it since they develop the fastest. D can take a longer time to develop.

[Derp...]

38 minutes ago, Chip Kelly said:

“While confirming conventional wisdom that players peak in their late 20s, the study proves it is wishful thinking for managers to expect a player in his mid-20s to continue improving significantly,” says Brander, an economist. “The vast majority of players are at 90 per cent of their best by age 24, although there are a few late bloomers.”

 

This quote was from a UBC study 3 years ago. Don't think he means goalies because they take longer to develop and play till later in their careers.

 

Forwards I could see it since they develop the fastest. D can take a longer time to develop.

The data on D men is strange. For some reason they are projected to peak around age 22 using the same system as I posted for forwards. I would expect it to actually be a bit later, but opportunity would also impact how many d from each age group are in the sample size. (There are fewer elite teams, with older D than there are middling and weak teams with young D)

[Mackcanuck]

Rick Dhaliwal‏ @DhaliwalSports  14m14 minutes ago

Talked with #Canucks prospect Jonathan Dahlen who is done playing in Sweden, now he signs with the Canucks or stays 1 more year in Sweden.

 

Rick Dhaliwal‏ @DhaliwalSports  14m14 minutes ago

Dahlen says he will take his time in deciding #Canucks or Division 1 in Sweden, "I have lots of things to discuss with my family."

 

Rick Dhaliwal‏ @DhaliwalSports  14m14 minutes ago

Dahlen says the #Canucks called him over the weekend, he knows he would start in Utica next season.

 

 Rick Dhaliwal‏ @DhaliwalSports  13m13 minutes ago

Dahlen on the benefits of staying in Sweden, "the bigger rink will improve my skating, it's not a bad option." #Canucks

 

Rick Dhaliwal‏ @DhaliwalSports  13m13 minutes ago

Dahlen says he wants to get stronger this summer, "to get closer to my dream of playing for the #Canucks."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ihatetomatoes]

33 minutes ago, Mackcanuck said:

Rick Dhaliwal‏ @DhaliwalSports  14m14 minutes ago

Talked with #Canucks prospect Jonathan Dahlen who is done playing in Sweden, now he signs with the Canucks or stays 1 more year in Sweden.

 

Rick Dhaliwal‏ @DhaliwalSports  14m14 minutes ago

Dahlen says he will take his time in deciding #Canucks or Division 1 in Sweden, "I have lots of things to discuss with my family."

 

Rick Dhaliwal‏ @DhaliwalSports  14m14 minutes ago

Dahlen says the #Canucks called him over the weekend, he knows he would start in Utica next season.

 

 Rick Dhaliwal‏ @DhaliwalSports  13m13 minutes ago

Dahlen on the benefits of staying in Sweden, "the bigger rink will improve my skating, it's not a bad option." #Canucks

 

Rick Dhaliwal‏ @DhaliwalSports  13m13 minutes ago

Dahlen says he wants to get stronger this summer, "to get closer to my dream of playing for the #Canucks."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Would be nice to have him over here but if he's playing in a better mens league in Europe it really makes no difference to the AHL. He needs a few years to get bigger and faster and as long as he's playing with men in a competent league to develop he'll be fine. I think he's going to be a beauty, just a hunch but I think we will loose the Hansen trade and Goldy doesn't work out but Dahlen ends up being the real prize. Having a father that played in the NHL will be huge for his off ice work and understanding of what needs to be done to be an NHL player.

[Gaudette Celly]

1 hour ago, Mackcanuck said:

Rick Dhaliwal‏ @DhaliwalSports  13m13 minutes ago

Dahlen on the benefits of staying in Sweden, "the bigger rink will improve my skating, it's not a bad option." #Canucks

 

Rick Dhaliwal‏ @DhaliwalSports  13m13 minutes ago

Dahlen says he wants to get stronger this summer, "to get closer to my dream of playing for the #Canucks."

Good to hear he knows the main things he needs to work on.  Canucks would certainly prefer him here so they have direct control over his development, and he'd also have the opportunity as a potential call-up if he shows himself ready.

[Boudrias]

29 minutes ago, Ihatetomatoes said:

Would be nice to have him over here but if he's playing in a better mens league in Europe it really makes no difference to the AHL. He needs a few years to get bigger and faster and as long as he's playing with men in a competent league to develop he'll be fine. I think he's going to be a beauty, just a hunch but I think we will loose the Hansen trade and Goldy doesn't work out but Dahlen ends up being the real prize. Having a father that played in the NHL will be huge for his off ice work and understanding of what needs to be done to be an NHL player.

I expect his father will make the call. I do not have a lot of faith in the Euro leagues. The AHL is the premier league for training players into the NHL. The same suggestions have been made about Joulevi playing in Europe next year. No and no!

[aGENT]

19 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

I expect his father will make the call. I do not have a lot of faith in the Euro leagues. The AHL is the premier league for training players into the NHL. The same suggestions have been made about Joulevi playing in Europe next year. No and no!

I'm fine with either. Playing in Sweden would allow him to hone his skill game more and work on his skating. As good as the AHL is, it does tend to be more of a 'grinder' vs a skill league. If he does come to the AHL though, it will get him more prepared for North American hockey and the smaller ice surface.

 

IMO there's no 'right' or 'wrong' answer there. Just different ways of doing things. My gut says he stays in Sweden next year, works further on his skill, skating and getting stronger. Then at the end of his season does the ATO contract to Utica for the playoffs and then starts the following season there on his NHL contract and goes from there.

[Derp...]

If he plays 1 more year in Sweden his ELC would slide another year. They could then sign him to a 3 year ELC that would last through his 23rd birthday instead of having to resign him at 22. It will be interesting to see. I wouldn't be that ecstatic going into an unknown coaching situation in Utica. Will Green be back for another year? Will they have a new coach?

Quality guys that could move up or down next year without waivers would be Boeser, Virtanen, Dahlen, and Goldobin. (Maybe Necas if we draft him and bring him over.)

[aGENT]

25 minutes ago, Derp... said:

If he plays 1 more year in Sweden his ELC would slide another year. They could then sign him to a 3 year ELC that would last through his 23rd birthday instead of having to resign him at 22. It will be interesting to see. I wouldn't be that ecstatic going into an unknown coaching situation in Utica. Will Green be back for another year? Will they have a new coach?

Quality guys that could move up or down next year without waivers would be Boeser, Virtanen, Dahlen, and Goldobin. (Maybe Necas if we draft him and bring him over.)

If we do draft Necas, I'd assume he'd be spending another year (if not 2) in Europe.

[Derp...]

34 minutes ago, J.R. said:

If we do draft Necas, I'd assume he'd be spending another year (if not 2) in Europe.

Not many top players play their draft +1 in the Czech league, Hertl was the last. I would guess if he doesn't go to the AHL then he will play in the CHL. 

[stawns]

1 hour ago, J.R. said:

I'm fine with either. Playing in Sweden would allow him to hone his skill game more and work on his skating. As good as the AHL is, it does tend to be more of a 'grinder' vs a skill league. If he does come to the AHL though, it will get him more prepared for North American hockey and the smaller ice surface.

 

IMO there's no 'right' or 'wrong' answer there. Just different ways of doing things. My gut says he stays in Sweden next year, works further on his skill, skating and getting stronger. Then at the end of his season does the ATO contract to Utica for the playoffs and then starts the following season there on his NHL contract and goes from there.

the AHL certainly turned out to be a good choice for Nylander.  If this kid's dream is to play in the NHL, then he needs t get to North America to play.  He'll be draft+2 next year, it's time to start making that dream a reality.

[aGENT]

Just now, stawns said:

the AHL certainly turned out to be a good choice for Nylander.  If this kid's dream is to play in the NHL, then he needs t get to North America to play.  He'll be draft+2 next year, it's time to start making that dream a reality.

Like I said, fine with either route. That's just my gut feeling.

 

5 minutes ago, Derp... said:

Not many top players play their draft +1 in the Czech league, Hertl was the last. I would guess if he doesn't go to the AHL then he will play in the CHL. 

Doesn't have to play in Czech league exclusively.

[Derp...]

8 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Like I said, fine with either route. That's just my gut feeling.

 

Doesn't have to play in Czech league exclusively.

It's possible, I'm not sure of his contract status with his Czech team. Maybe they would release him or loan him to another Euro club, but they are businesses too, and it would be hard to let an asset like that walk for nothing. Jasek was in the same situation, and his team wouldn't even let him play in the CHL. Usually players have an out clause for NHL contracts, so if he signed and went to the AHL that would allow him to leave with no issues. Maybe his contract status is different, but I'm not sure.

[aGENT]

5 minutes ago, Derp... said:

It's possible, I'm not sure of his contract status with his Czech team. Maybe they would release him or loan him to another Euro club, but they are businesses too, and it would be hard to let an asset like that walk for nothing. Jasek was in the same situation, and his team wouldn't even let him play in the CHL. Usually players have an out clause for NHL contracts, so if he signed and went to the AHL that would allow him to leave with no issues. Maybe his contract status is different, but I'm not sure.

Yeah, no idea what his contract status is.

[Boudrias]

5 hours ago, J.R. said:

I'm fine with either. Playing in Sweden would allow him to hone his skill game more and work on his skating. As good as the AHL is, it does tend to be more of a 'grinder' vs a skill league. If he does come to the AHL though, it will get him more prepared for North American hockey and the smaller ice surface.

 

IMO there's no 'right' or 'wrong' answer there. Just different ways of doing things. My gut says he stays in Sweden next year, works further on his skill, skating and getting stronger. Then at the end of his season does the ATO contract to Utica for the playoffs and then starts the following season there on his NHL contract and goes from there.

I don't believe Dahlen has any NA experience. I think the smaller NA ice surface causes problems for the Euro forwards when they come over.  

[Nigerian]

I find it super intriguing the amount of points Dahlen put up in his draft +1 in comparison to what Filip Forsberg did in his draft +1 in the same league. Did we snag a player who could have Forsberg potential or is there a reason for Dahlens high goal and point totals this year?? 

[Derp...]

4 minutes ago, Nigerian said:

I find it super intriguing the amount of points Dahlen put up in his draft +1 in comparison to what Filip Forsberg did in his draft +1 in the same league. Did we snag a player who could have Forsberg potential or is there a reason for Dahlens high goal and point totals this year?? 

There's been a lot of talk on this earlier in the thread actually. I suggest reading through, it's not that big yet.

To sum up, his late birthday presents a variable that we can't account for easily in the Forsberg comparison. In his 19-20 year old season Forsberg put up 34 points in 47 AHL games and played in the WJC. Because of Dahlens Birthday, he will not be eligible for the WJC next year. If he comes over to NA and puts up similar numbers to Forsberg in his first AHL year then we can say there is a pretty strong similarity. If he stays in Sweden for 2017-2018 then it will be hard to draw the same parallels. For example Joel Eriksson Ek had 16 points in 26 SHL games this year (Draft +2 January 29th Birthday 1997). Dahlen is December 20th 1997, so almost a full year later. Just shy of 11 months. So if he does stay in Sweden and play in the SHL I will be looking to compare him against Eriksson Ek. If he can score around .75 points per game then we are looking at somebody who is probably a top prospect for many teams. Having said that William Nylander scored 0.95 points per game in the SHL in his draft +1 year (Before his 19th birthday). So if we want to go that route we would need to see him score over a point per game in the SHL or AHL next year.

If you want a close comparable in my eyes, it's probably William Karlsson. Same points per game in their draft +1 year in the Allsvenskan. Karlsson was a January birthday which makes the age difference nil. In his draft +2 year Karlsson had 28 points in 50 SHL games. Dahlen is a better goal scorer, and has shown that at many levels.

The thing to look for regardless of where he plays is the 0.7 points per game mark in my opinion. In either the SHL or AHL as a 19-20 year old that projects as top 6 for sure. Below that can just mean he needs a bit more time, or that his ceiling isn't quite that high. Eriksson Ek is an example of just needs more time, Karlsson is an example of ceiling is just not that high. Over 1 point per game in either league is a special player. projecting more towards the elite level for their age. 

[Nigerian]

1 hour ago, Derp... said:

There's been a lot of talk on this earlier in the thread actually. I suggest reading through, it's not that big yet.

To sum up, his late birthday presents a variable that we can't account for easily in the Forsberg comparison. In his 19-20 year old season Forsberg put up 34 points in 47 AHL games and played in the WJC. Because of Dahlens Birthday, he will not be eligible for the WJC next year. If he comes over to NA and puts up similar numbers to Forsberg in his first AHL year then we can say there is a pretty strong similarity. If he stays in Sweden for 2017-2018 then it will be hard to draw the same parallels. For example Joel Eriksson Ek had 16 points in 26 SHL games this year (Draft +2 January 29th Birthday 1997). Dahlen is December 20th 1997, so almost a full year later. Just shy of 11 months. So if he does stay in Sweden and play in the SHL I will be looking to compare him against Eriksson Ek. If he can score around .75 points per game then we are looking at somebody who is probably a top prospect for many teams. Having said that William Nylander scored 0.95 points per game in the SHL in his draft +1 year (Before his 19th birthday). So if we want to go that route we would need to see him score over a point per game in the SHL or AHL next year.

If you want a close comparable in my eyes, it's probably William Karlsson. Same points per game in their draft +1 year in the Allsvenskan. Karlsson was a January birthday which makes the age difference nil. In his draft +2 year Karlsson had 28 points in 50 SHL games. Dahlen is a better goal scorer, and has shown that at many levels.

The thing to look for regardless of where he plays is the 0.7 points per game mark in my opinion. In either the SHL or AHL as a 19-20 year old that projects as top 6 for sure. Below that can just mean he needs a bit more time, or that his ceiling isn't quite that high. Eriksson Ek is an example of just needs more time, Karlsson is an example of ceiling is just not that high. Over 1 point per game in either league is a special player. projecting more towards the elite level for their age. 

Thanks a lot! And 25 pages is to much for me to sift through and read a bunch of morons argue over WD and past draftees aka OJ and Virtanen. 

[Rollieo Del Fuego]

3 hours ago, Derp... said:

There's been a lot of talk on this earlier in the thread actually. I suggest reading through, it's not that big yet.

To sum up, his late birthday presents a variable that we can't account for easily in the Forsberg comparison. In his 19-20 year old season Forsberg put up 34 points in 47 AHL games and played in the WJC. Because of Dahlens Birthday, he will not be eligible for the WJC next year. If he comes over to NA and puts up similar numbers to Forsberg in his first AHL year then we can say there is a pretty strong similarity. If he stays in Sweden for 2017-2018 then it will be hard to draw the same parallels. For example Joel Eriksson Ek had 16 points in 26 SHL games this year (Draft +2 January 29th Birthday 1997). Dahlen is December 20th 1997, so almost a full year later. Just shy of 11 months. So if he does stay in Sweden and play in the SHL I will be looking to compare him against Eriksson Ek. If he can score around .75 points per game then we are looking at somebody who is probably a top prospect for many teams. Having said that William Nylander scored 0.95 points per game in the SHL in his draft +1 year (Before his 19th birthday). So if we want to go that route we would need to see him score over a point per game in the SHL or AHL next year.

If you want a close comparable in my eyes, it's probably William Karlsson. Same points per game in their draft +1 year in the Allsvenskan. Karlsson was a January birthday which makes the age difference nil. In his draft +2 year Karlsson had 28 points in 50 SHL games. Dahlen is a better goal scorer, and has shown that at many levels.

The thing to look for regardless of where he plays is the 0.7 points per game mark in my opinion. In either the SHL or AHL as a 19-20 year old that projects as top 6 for sure. Below that can just mean he needs a bit more time, or that his ceiling isn't quite that high. Eriksson Ek is an example of just needs more time, Karlsson is an example of ceiling is just not that high. Over 1 point per game in either league is a special player. projecting more towards the elite level for their age. 

....another excellent summary...with bells and whistles!

Here's hoping for a point a game or better then.