Nathan MacKinnon and John Tavares

[whcanuck]

I wanted to hear your guys' opinion on something. When John Tavares was first scouted, he was considered so exceptional as a 15 year old that he was allowed to play in the OHL. He was going to be the next Crosby, but bigger. Nathan MacKinnon comes out Nova Scotia just like Crosby, and he lights up the QMJHL, makes the WJC team as a 16 year old (something that maybe only a handful of guys have ever done) and he's now the next Crosby. Tavares has had some really good years, a couple Hart Trophy nominations and he basically dragged the Isles to the 2nd round last year for the first time in more than 20 years. But he's never come close to Crosby numbers, never scored 40 goals and never reached 100 points, things that Crosby and Ovechkin have done numerous times in the past 10 years. MacKinnon had a great rookie year, looked a lot like McDavid, but since then he's just been very "meh." My question is what's going on with these guys? Do they not have the supporting cast to be the franchise saviors they were expected to be? Or were they just a little over-hyped? For MacKinnon it may still be a little early but Tavares should be hitting his peak in the next few years. 

[Bur14Kes17]

No one ever said Tavares and Mackinnon were going to be the next Crosby. Crosby and McDavid were hyped up 2-3 years before they were drafted. Even then scouts knew they would be "generational talents". 

Tavares I think has lived up to his expectations though. He may not have the gaudy numbers people expected, but who had he had to play with? Okposo? And did you see how he dragged the Islanders through playoffs? Good lord....

 

Mackinnon seems to have stalled in his development... but being on a terrible team can do that. See all of the oilers first overall picks. None of them developed properly. 

Anyway. Just my opinion

[Sygvard]

Honestly, that "next Crosby" stuff is generally just media hyperbole. It's fun to hype up the prospects, and the easiest way for most people to process that is by comparing them to current excellent players. 

 

We see it all the time. Every first overall centre is next Crosby. Every huge defence is the next Chara. Every elite 2 way prospect reminds the commentators of a young Bergeron. All the big smashing wingers have the teams talking about Lucic. 

 

I don't mind it at all, but I wouldn't try to analyse it too deeply. It more fun to read than "He is a complex an fully realised individual who will grow into his own play style, that resembles only himself". 

[Toews]

Tavares actually had a few scouts at the time question his skating and how much that would hold him back. He really wasn't considered on the same level as Crosby as a prospect.

[Alflives]

In before a mod posts a 'tag' comment.  Ha!  Two for Alf today!!!!  

Easily Tarvares.  Mackinnon is not an NHL center.

[-AJ-]

I think Tavares was considered to be better than your standard 1st Overall pick, but not at a Crosby level. And that's about where's he's ended up in his career thus far.

[Nuxfanabroad]

Drouin seems to be projecting better than MacK, at this point. 2013 re-drafts conducted today, would still be uncertain.

 

One thing I'm hestitant about with Tavares is his skating. Not really a speedster, is he? Like seeing hockey stars have an extra gear, like the thrill of McDavid at top speed.

[Phil_314]

Definitely over-hyped though to no fault of their own (to be fair, who won't hype the top of any class?).  It's the media guys who like to pump their tires with the projections.  

It's also unfair to expect every year's #1 to be like Sid or Connor, there can only be so many "generational" guys, but even to have a solid legit #1 center is a boon to any team's future, and both these guys are without a doubt that caliber of player for any team.  

Of course, having legit 1st line supporting cast would greatly augment their chances of them reaching those heights, but even without that support these studs are still 1st line quality (reminiscing about those years when Tavares was the only legit star on Long Island).

Question for OP, what standards do you use to qualify whether these guys are #1 centers or not, and in your opinion do they reach these thresholds?  If not, what improvements do these guys need to make to reach those heights?

[whcanuck]

20 hours ago, Phil_314 said:

Definitely over-hyped though to no fault of their own (to be fair, who won't hype the top of any class?).  It's the media guys who like to pump their tires with the projections.  

It's also unfair to expect every year's #1 to be like Sid or Connor, there can only be so many "generational" guys, but even to have a solid legit #1 center is a boon to any team's future, and both these guys are without a doubt that caliber of player for any team.  

Of course, having legit 1st line supporting cast would greatly augment their chances of them reaching those heights, but even without that support these studs are still 1st line quality (reminiscing about those years when Tavares was the only legit star on Long Island).

Question for OP, what standards do you use to qualify whether these guys are #1 centers or not, and in your opinion do they reach these thresholds?  If not, what improvements do these guys need to make to reach those heights?

I think Tavares is a #1 center definitely, but I don't think MacKinnon is, at least not at this point. I just remember Tavares being very hyped, maybe not the next Crosby per se, but he's never scored 40 goals nor cracked the 90 point barrier, something Markus Naslund did a couple of times and he's likely never going to the hall of fame, but I bet Tavares does. Now I understand Tavares' supporting cast is definitely lacking, and I think JT is a great player, but I thought his numbers would be better at this point of his career. Whichever post said MacKinnon's development has stalled put it perfectly imo. He had that great rookie year but since he's done next to nothing. Again though, poor supporting cast. Both players are very talented but judging by how much they were hyped when they were drafted their numbers should be a bit higher. 

[hatedkid666]

Tavares is one of the best players in the league.

[Alflives]

32 minutes ago, whcanuck said:

I think Tavares is a #1 center definitely, but I don't think MacKinnon is, at least not at this point. I just remember Tavares being very hyped, maybe not the next Crosby per se, but he's never scored 40 goals nor cracked the 90 point barrier, something Markus Naslund did a couple of times and he's likely never going to the hall of fame, but I bet Tavares does. Now I understand Tavares' supporting cast is definitely lacking, and I think JT is a great player, but I thought his numbers would be better at this point of his career. Whichever post said MacKinnon's development has stalled put it perfectly imo. He had that great rookie year but since he's done next to nothing. Again though, poor supporting cast. Both players are very talented but judging by how much they were hyped when they were drafted their numbers should be a bit higher. 

Heard 'Noodles' (Jamie McLennon) say that Mackinnon has a lot of 'warts' on the defensive side of the puck, especially at the center position.  He's gotten worse each season as his responsibilities have increased.  I would love if we could get him to play on Bo's wing!  

[Phil_314]

1 hour ago, whcanuck said:

I think Tavares is a #1 center definitely, but I don't think MacKinnon is, at least not at this point. I just remember Tavares being very hyped, maybe not the next Crosby per se, but he's never scored 40 goals nor cracked the 90 point barrier, something Markus Naslund did a couple of times and he's likely never going to the hall of fame, but I bet Tavares does. Now I understand Tavares' supporting cast is definitely lacking, and I think JT is a great player, but I thought his numbers would be better at this point of his career. Whichever post said MacKinnon's development has stalled put it perfectly imo. He had that great rookie year but since he's done next to nothing. Again though, poor supporting cast. Both players are very talented but judging by how much they were hyped when they were drafted their numbers should be a bit higher. 

Agreed with Nate, he might be a great winger like a Seguin or a Hall, but maybe he's not the best for center ice.  Then again, even in a strong draft year like the one he was in he can still stand among his peers as a decent choice, albeit maybe not #1 but probably still top-10 (behind Barkov, Monahan, Wennberg, Drouin, Ristolainen, Jones?).  

For Tavares, to be fair he has been hovering around a point per game for his career, which is below the elite guys (Pat Kane, Crosby, McDavid...), but he's still enjoyed a stellar career in its own right.  To expect more of his career just might be expecting too much when he's already giving what he's got out there, by his performance he hasn't necessarily fallen short of the expectation that comes with being a top draft pick and he may just be a victim of the hype and comparison.  To get to those even higher point totals it just might require a better supporting cast as you pointed out, since even superstars can't do it all by themselves.
    
Also agreed with the effects of hyping and that, from a development perspective, it does put a lot of pressure on these kids who have to be front and center in the media and who are cast as the savior of a floundering franchise.  Then again, if they're the creme-de -la-creme of an elite group of athletes it should be expected, even if it can be unfair for the kids who aren't ready for the big role right off the bat (e.g. with Nuge or Ekblad).  Bottom line is I feel people put too much focus on the #1 pick like he's supposed to be head and shoulders above everyone else, when majority of the time the fact is that most of these athletes will go on to have stellar careers.  Whichever team has a successful pick should be happy with what they've got instead of heaping too much responsibility on them and letting media and fans kill these kids' confidence with undue criticism too early on.
 

[ice orca]

On 2017-04-06 at 5:33 PM, Nuxfanabroad said:

Drouin seems to be projecting better than MacK, at this point. 2013 re-drafts conducted today, would still be uncertain.

 

One thing I'm hestitant about with Tavares is his skating. Not really a speedster, is he? Like seeing hockey stars have an extra gear, like the thrill of McDavid at top speed.

It's hard to get a handle on J.T's skating because he plays mostly on really bad ice in Brooklyn, away from there he looks just fine.