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[Trade] Red Wings trade Anthony Mantha to Capitals for Jakub Vrana, Richard Panik, 2021 1st-round pick, 2022 2nd-round pick


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13 minutes ago, oldnews said:

I could not care less if you have him in fantasy - I'm not dealing in fantasy - I posted the facts of the frequency of his linemates.  He's not a bottom six forward - he's a prototypical top six or bust type.   Not only has he played predominantly with top 6 forwards - but as I already also posted - his zone starts for the season are 68% - nothing resembling 'bottom 6' minutes.  

 

If you have a source that shows that Dobber has it wrong - feel free to post it.  "Dude".

 

What is your problem

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23 minutes ago, Devron44 said:

 

It has nothing to do with having a problem.  If anyone has a problem here, it's you.  I posted the objective facts of his deployment - you wanted to argue with them - that he was not being used as a top 6 forward   but you posted no sources/metrics to show that.

I don't know why you want to continue to argue that - without any sources/facts - but that's your prerogative - it aint personal - it's a simple matter of his actual deployment. 

His numbers are not particularly impressive in context, and even worse when it matters.  If you have something to refute that, let it rip - but from what I see - from objective sources - ie linemate frequency%, zone starts - he was and is not a bottom six forward - he can't be argued to have deflated production as a result of deployment.  If you're arguing that he's slid down the lineup in the past weeks or whatever, that you tracked a few games = that is outlier, small sample and not representative.

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People need to understand there’s a difference between “top 6 role” and “top 6 minutes”. Vrana plays in a top 6 role in Washington by virtue of his linemates, but he does not get top 6 minutes as evidence of his ES minutes. It’s the equivalent to the same situation here, with Hoglander. 
 

I don’t see how Detroit “wins” this trade by a landslide. First round picks are highly overrated on this board, especially when that pick is in the tail-end of the draft. Statically, picks from 20-50 have less than 15% chance of becoming a NHL serviceable player. 

Essentially, how I see this trade is Vrana + a 20% chance of a NHL player for Mantha. While Mantha might be inconsistent at times, he’s a far better player than Vrana. Mantha played on an abysmal Red Wings team that ranked dead last during the past two seasons in goals for. While Vrana played on a high potent offense team. Playing with arguably the best playmaker in today’s game, the past two seasons. 
 

I’m going to bet Vrana’s production is going to drop considerably, not having Backstrom and Carlson getting the puck onto his stick.

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30 minutes ago, shiznak said:

People need to understand there’s a difference between “top 6 role” and “top 6 minutes”. Vrana plays in a top 6 role in Washington by virtue of his linemates, but he does not get top 6 minutes as evidence of his ES minutes. It’s the equivalent to the same situation here, with Hoglander. 
 

I don’t see how Detroit “wins” this trade by a landslide. First round picks are highly overrated on this board, especially when that pick is in the tail-end of the draft. Statically, picks from 20-50 have less than 15% chance of becoming a NHL serviceable player. 

Essentially, how I see this trade is Vrana + a 20% chance of a NHL player for Mantha. While Mantha might be inconsistent at times, he’s a far better player than Vrana. Mantha played on an abysmal Red Wings team that ranked dead last during the past two seasons in goals for. While Vrana played on a high potent offense team. Playing with arguably the best playmaker in today’s game, the past two seasons. 
 

I’m going to bet Vrana’s production is going to drop considerably, not having Backstrom and Carlson getting the puck onto his stick.

I’ll take you up on that bet with Vrana. I also think Mantha will thrive with Washington but that opinion doesn’t discount the player Vrana will be. I’m sure Oldnews will attack me but I really believe in Vrana personally 

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3 hours ago, oldnews said:

I could not care less if you have him in fantasy - I'm not dealing in fantasy

This really irritated me. Complete dismissed anything I said to make a statement hence my reply of “what’s your problem”

 

You singled out one of my comments that I thought it was a great trade for Detroit. I made some points and that’s all there is too it. 
 

If it makes you feel better. Great trade for Washington.

 

I love your posts Old News you bring a lot of insight where others are lacking but I don’t think it’s fair going on about how I’m wrong. My opinions not going to change 

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6 hours ago, Devron44 said:

This really irritated me. Complete dismissed anything I said to make a statement hence my reply of “what’s your problem”

 

You singled out one of my comments that I thought it was a great trade for Detroit. I made some points and that’s all there is too it. 
 

If it makes you feel better. Great trade for Washington.

 

I love your posts Old News you bring a lot of insight where others are lacking but I don’t think it’s fair going on about how I’m wrong. My opinions not going to change 

Lol have you never interacted with oldnews before? 

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12 minutes ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Lol have you never interacted with oldnews before? 

Yes a little. I actually like his stuff and read his posts often. Kinda threw me off today though lol

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Washington got the best player in the deal so they won the trade.  Mantha will be a point a game player with Washington.  At 6'5" and almost 240 pounds he can be a beast in front of the net and be a 2nd Tom Wilson.  Wilson and Mantha on two different lines will be hard for other teams to contend with.

 

This is all about Washington getting the best player in the trade and making a playoff push to hopefully win another Cup.  That's their objective.  From Detroit's point of view, they are in complete rebuild mode and Yzerman's goal is to stock the shelves with draft picks to rebuild his team.  So it's a win win for both teams in terms of their objectives for the trade.

 

Yzerman will need to come through on all these draft picks he has acquired, so he has alot of work ahead of him.

 

Mantha is to Washington as Miller is to Vancouver.  Miller became a point a game player in Vancouver after playing on the 3rd line in Tampa.  I can see Mantha having the same success with Washington.  If that is the case then a late first and Vrana is not an overpayment by any means, considering we gave up a mid first round pick and a 3rd for Miller.  Vrana has zero points in his last 15 playoff games, so flipping him for Mantha for this year's playoff run makes total sense.  Mantha has never played in the playoffs before, but my sense is he will have much greater success in the playoffs than Vrana did for Washington.

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15 hours ago, Devron44 said:

This really irritated me. Complete dismissed anything I said to make a statement hence my reply of “what’s your problem”

 

You singled out one of my comments that I thought it was a great trade for Detroit. I made some points and that’s all there is too it. 
 

If it makes you feel better. Great trade for Washington.

 

I love your posts Old News you bring a lot of insight where others are lacking but I don’t think it’s fair going on about how I’m wrong. My opinions not going to change 

Fair enough - but if you're wondering why you got that tone in response, it irritates me when people come with attitude and pull that "dude" thing that you did - if you want a polite conversation, maybe don't initiate with that.

 

I didn't single out one of your comments - I responded to a pair of comments that reflected what I thought at first glance, but then when I looked closer I adjusted my opinion on the deal.  If I were looking to 'attack' or dismiss posts, there were plenty far more 'attackable' posts in this thread - I elected to initiate a conversation where I stated the counterpoints - and that's pretty much what I've done with the exception of getting annoyed with the "dude" thing - which I tend to respond to in kind.

 

I have no problem with you whatsoever - I found this particular discussion a bit tedious - and I think the indicators of the kind of minutes Vrana plays are pretty clear - but it's not personal on any level - it's just hockey talk and a disagreement.  It's way too early to call it a great trade for either team - that wasn't really my point - it does not really look like a 'bad' trade for either side - as usual, only time will tell.  No real intention to irritate you - apologies that it had that effect - it's not really worth digging in over, imo.

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8 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

 

chirp chirp from a glass house.

 

ignorant, petty chirping that ironically has nothing to do with hockey talk or the trade that this thread regards.

 

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7 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

I think based on that exchange above he actually likes you lol

you finally got something right lol.

 

but still, your underlying tail-chasing and endless pointless chirping..

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15 hours ago, Devron44 said:

I’ll take you up on that bet with Vrana. I also think Mantha will thrive with Washington but that opinion doesn’t discount the player Vrana will be. I’m sure Oldnews will attack me but I really believe in Vrana personally 

Goddamit, can you please back that up with stats? :lol:

 

Some of these posters are good at compiling stats but they put way to much emphasis on them, and they don't understand them. Most stats don't measure what they actually intend to. Like ON above his quote of 68% actually measures what zone they start in, not whether he's deployed offensively or defensively. I mean just because you start Ovechkin on the face-off in his own end don't think they're doing it for his shutdown ability. He's deployed offensively whenever he steps on the ice. It also negates that 75% of line changes are made on the fly, and I don't even think that they measure neutral zone starts in that stat at all. And then to couple in line-mates makes it even less accurate, that's a lot of assumptions to make that stat viable in any way shape or form. 

 

Then there is my favorite. Someone will make a statement like this guy performed at 44% of some measure vs the other guy at 55%. Huge difference. Yet when you look at the actual circumstance you see one player retrieved the puck 4/9, while the other 5/9. Not that relative or useful after all really.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Goddamit, can you please back that up with stats? :lol:

 

Some of these posters are good at compiling stats but they put way to much emphasis on them, and they don't understand them. Most stats don't measure what they actually intend to. Like ON above his quote of 68% measure what zone they start in, not whether he's deployed offensively or defensively. I mean just because you start Ovechkin on the face-off in his own end don't think they're doing it for his shutdown ability. He's deployed offensively whenever he steps on the ice. It also negates that 75% of line changes are made on the fly, and I don't even think that they measure neutral zone starts in that stat at all. And then to couple in line-mates makes it even less accurate, that's a lot of assumptions to make that stat viable in any way shape or form. 

 

Then there is my favorite. Someone will make a statement like this guy performed at 44% of some measure vs the other guy at 55%. Huge difference. Yet when you look at the actual circumstance you see one player retrieved the puck 4/9, while the other 5/9. Not that relative or useful after all really.

 

 

Sorry I’m a gut feeling kinda guy hahaha. Which is why maybe the guy should take me up on the bet lol. I see Burakovski written all over this. I’m making assumptions and I’m ok with that, I’m still entitled to from watching him play and following his more traditional stats regularly. I’m not an advanced stat guy put it that way 

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39 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Fair enough - but if you're wondering why you got that tone in response, it irritates me when people come with attitude and pull that "dude" thing that you did - if you want a polite conversation, maybe don't initiate with that.

 

I didn't single out one of your comments - I responded to a pair of comments that reflected what I thought at first glance, but then when I looked closer I adjusted my opinion on the deal.  If I were looking to 'attack' or dismiss posts, there were plenty far more 'attackable' posts in this thread - I elected to initiate a conversation where I stated the counterpoints - and that's pretty much what I've done with the exception of getting annoyed with the "dude" thing - which I tend to respond to in kind.

 

I have no problem with you whatsoever - I found this particular discussion a bit tedious - and I think the indicators of the kind of minutes Vrana plays are pretty clear - but it's not personal on any level - it's just hockey talk and a disagreement.  It's way too early to call it a great trade for either team - that wasn't really my point - it does not really look like a 'bad' trade for either side - as usual, only time will tell.  No real intention to irritate you - apologies that it had that effect - it's not really worth digging in over, imo.

Yeah that’s fair. Got caught at the wrong time and reacted. I should have responded when I had more time. The Dude part is subjective and was more of a empathetic response. It’s just the way I talk sometimes but it’s subjective so I try to avoid it when typing.

 

The more I think about it. It’s not really a bad trade. I’m just high on Vrana for my reasons. I know they are not analytical. But I’m also think players like Myers are great and help us significantly and he’s usually on the wrong side of those. 

Is Vrana a better player then Mantha. No he’s not, Mantha is a complete hockey player. Someone you want in the playoffs. I like Vranas ceiling and I don’t doubt he’ll have success in the Motor City 

 

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20 minutes ago, Devron44 said:

Sorry I’m a gut feeling kinda guy hahaha. Which is why maybe the guy should take me up on the bet lol. I see Burakovski written all over this. I’m making assumptions and I’m ok with that, I’m still entitled to from watching him play and following his more traditional stats regularly. I’m not an advanced stat guy put it that way 

To be honest the whole question barely makes sense. NHL players are for the most part never employed solely offensively or defensively. Hockey is a two way game, your coach should be employing you for both roles every shift unless you're a guy like Beagle, who sometimes is there simply to win a face-off or wind down a game, or like Laine, who wouldn't even recognize his goalie if he ran into him on the street.

 

I would prefer to look at it your way as well. Can Mantha play a defensive, or third line role on a championship team. Yes, at 6'5', 240lbs, .65 PPG, 3rd highest TOI for forwards and a leader type player, I would believe in that a heck of a lot more than where the Detroit coach deployed him 20% of the time. 

 

Can Vrana? I'm not as confident he could because in my opinion he hasn't been used as a main cog in Washington. Does it matter? I don't think so he's going to immediately be thrust into a higher role with more responsibility and we will see how he handles it. Who would play better is more dependent on opportunity and situation and not deployment and stats in my mind. Both good, young players with Mantha being slightly more proven at this point. 

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On 4/16/2021 at 10:11 AM, Devron44 said:

Yeah that’s fair. Got caught at the wrong time and reacted. I should have responded when I had more time. The Dude part is subjective and was more of a empathetic response. It’s just the way I talk sometimes but it’s subjective so I try to avoid it when typing.

 

The more I think about it. It’s not really a bad trade. I’m just high on Vrana for my reasons. I know they are not analytical. But I’m also think players like Myers are great and help us significantly and he’s usually on the wrong side of those. 

Is Vrana a better player then Mantha. No he’s not, Mantha is a complete hockey player. Someone you want in the playoffs. I like Vranas ceiling and I don’t doubt he’ll have success in the Motor City 

 

Cheers.  I responded to a pair of posts - but really, I probably should have just stated my points without quoting a couple posts because there were so many...My first thought was - wow - what makes Mantha worth that - until I looked into it and realized how bad Panic has been, his contract/terms and then rethought it.  I think I need to engage less - but anyhow, no hard feelings.

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14 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Cheers.  I responded to a pair of posts - but really, I probably should have just stated my points without quoting a couple posts because there were so many...My first thought was - wow - what makes Mantha worth that - until I looked into it and realized how bad Panic has been, his contract/terms and then rethought it.  I think I need to engage less - but anyhow, no hard feelings.

Yeah she’s all good. I got defensive. I believe a player can still be judged by watching him and using more traditional stats. Analytics are important too. Sometimes finding a center between the two paints the best picture.

 

No hard feelings. Be interesting to follow this trade over the next few years 

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