The future of schmidt and myers

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, Tom Sestito said:

I lied. Bobrovsky is worse than OEL. 

 

 

Skinner is pretty bad too.

Bob

Skinner

OEL

[IBatch]

23 minutes ago, Tom Sestito said:

WAR in hockey isn’t good yet. I do think if you plotted it, it’s correct more often than not but it’s not good enough yet overall. 

 

I posted it because you asked for QOC and QOC is posted there.

 

The whole bull$&!# about how you need to have X to win annoys me. You can win being an average possession team if you have elite goaltending, good special teams, and luck. I don’t want to get into all of that because I feel like you went from asking about QOC to going down this whole hole of other stuff.

 

Again, you are posting the ice time stuff which I’ve already acknowledged above. 

 

No, I would not want overpaid defensemen like Trouba or Subban. That’s a straw. Your opportunity cost is saying well it’s myers or this other terrible option. Mine is that we could have Myers or allocate that salary cap better and not in a worse way like OEL/Trouba.

 

https://jfresh.substack.com/p/projecting-the-nhls-15-worst-contracts

PIT won because they were an excellent counterattack team and had the star power in the middle.   Their D wasn't very good the first cup - run by gulp - Schultz (Letang was out), the mediocre Cole, Doumolin etc, was definitely nothing to be excited about, and Murray was solid but not otherworldy but good enough.   And MAF was the same.   The point i was trying to make is some of these fancy stats haven't stuck or have at least lost a lot of their lustre.  Corsi/Fenwick we're all the rage when CHI and LA as a team had the puck 55% plus percent of the time, but that all died a quick death PIT second cup.

 

If not Myers then whom exactly should have we spent the money on?   RHD is still a problem, as is finding the perfect partner for QHs to shine.   Three game winners, some swagger, intangibles etc ... are we going to find that in Gardiner (some wanted both)... is Ceci and upgrade?   Hamonic isn't getting the same deal he got last time, he's earned a raise.    If not a UFA then who?  Some wanted to trade Dumba for our first and BB just one season ago.    How would have that looked now?   Whenever a RHD comes to market with ability - it's rare.   Myers was a rare occurrence.   AP and those types even rarer.   I'd for sure upgrade to 8 for Hamilton but that's also a pipe dream. 

 

Edit:  What opportunity cost would we have lost if we didn't take Myers?   

Edited June 29, 2021 by IBatch

[Bertuzzipunch]

Personally would like to get a 2nd or 3rd back for schmidt and sign montour to a 5 year 4.25 mill aav with his money

[mll]

 

 

 

 

11 minutes ago, IBatch said:

I don't like WAR... ever since they declared Alex Steen the best player in the league i've tended to ignore them.   Advanced stats gave wiggled their way into the NHL, PIT winning back to back cups kind of threw possession metric into the trash.   How could middling possession team win the cup twice in a row after CHI and LA?   Maybe, like GMs  and coaches say, it's just part of the tool box.   Career wise and the eye test too, Myers is in the upper area for zone exits and entries, so i can play the advanced stat game to make a point too.   But instead how about just go back to the basics? 

 

Last year he lead the team in ATOI (TSN, edging non PKer PP leader QHs by .02 seconds), was second to Edler (but not by much) in total PK time - two things hockey historians first look at when comparing hockey defenseman greats head to head (how much did he play, and what was his PK time like compared to his teammates, a quick litmus test into how much his coach trusted him on the other side of the puck before digging deeper, back the then there wasn't the stats coming out today).   Edler had a little more PK time but not much,   and double that of Schmidt and a lot more then double what Hamonic got  - that's first pairing PK.    

 

Myers led the team in ice time last season,  yet is being described as a third pairing D, really don't get that.  Especially when he was the obvious guy for me at least for the Pratt award.   I'm not saying he's perfect, but i am saying he's done everything i expected and a little more in the post season so far.  We are lucky to have him, even at 6 million, after all there are 50% more LHDs in the NHL.   Comparing only to other RHDs he comes out pretty strong.   Or would you rather have Subban or Trouba ( 8 x 8 lol)...

 

Corsi doesn't capture shot quality.  It doesn't even capture possession now that technology allows to measure time player actually spend in each zone.

 

Also spending time in the o-zone doesn't equate to having a better chance to win the game.  Trotz repeats that he couldn't care less if opponents spend most of their time in NYI's end because they'll give them little.  What's important is creating quality chances and preventing them.

 

CSA ranks Myers 2nd to last with a -16.5 in expected goal differential off mid-to-high quality chances.  It's chances that have historically converted at a rate of 10% or more.  CSA captures the full context of the play sequence that leads to a shot - number of screens, passing plays etc.  The ranking is on 17 April - ie data up to 24 March for Vancouver and before the Covid outbreak.  (Edler, Schmidt and Hamonic also make the bottom-10 list as well as Sutter).

 

 

 

 

[IBatch]

3 minutes ago, IBatch said:

PIT won because they were an excellent counterattack team and had the star power in the middle.   Their D wasn't very good the first cup - run by gulp - Schultz (Letang was out), the mediocre Cole, Doumolin etc, was definitely nothing to be excited about, and Murray was solid but not otherworldy but good enough.   And MAF was the same.   The point i was trying to make is some of these fancy stats haven't stuck or have at least lost a lot of their lustre.  Corsi/Fenwick we're all the rage when CHI and LA as a team had the puck 55% plus percent of the time, but that all died a quick death PIT second cup.

 

If not Myers then whom exactly should have we spent the money on?   RHD is still a problem, as is finding the perfect partner for QHs to shine.   Three game winners, some swagger, intangibles etc ... are we going to find that in Gardiner (some wanted both)... is Ceci and upgrade?   Hamonic isn't getting the same deal he got last time, he's earned a raise.    If not a UFA then who?  Some wanted to trade Dumba for our first and BB just one season ago.    How would have that looked now?   Whenever a RHD comes to market with ability - it's rare.   Myers was a rare occurrence.   AP and those types even rarer.   I'd for sure upgrade to 8 for Hamilton but that's also a pipe dream. 

 

Edit:  What opportunity cost would we have lost if we didn't take Myers?   

I like Manson... he's a solid defensive RHD on a bad team ... could be worth kicking tires for a trade. 

[IBatch]

2 minutes ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

Personally would like to get a 2nd or 3rd back for schmidt and sign montour to a 5 year 4.25 mill aav with his money

Lol quoted myself...I like Manson (above), could be worth seeing what we could trade to get him.  

[IBatch]

6 minutes ago, mll said:

 

 

 

 

 

Corsi doesn't capture shot quality.  It doesn't even capture possession now that technology allows to measure time player actually spend in each zone.

 

Also spending time in the o-zone doesn't equate to having a better chance to win the game.  Trotz repeats that he couldn't care less if opponents spend most of their time in NYI's end because they'll give them little.  What's important is creating quality chances and preventing them.

 

CSA ranks Myers 2nd to last with a -16.5 in expected goal differential off mid-to-high quality chances.  It's chances that have historically converted at a rate of 10% or more.  CSA captures the full context of the play sequence that leads to a shot - number of screens, passing plays etc.  The ranking is on 17 April - ie data up to 24 March for Vancouver and before the Covid outbreak.  (Edler, Schmidt and Hamonic also make the bottom-10 list as well as Sutter).

 

 

 

 

Yes.  It's an example of how something that started out as the new best next thing has died out.   Maybe some of these things really don't mean much of anything.   For 3-4 years it was all the rage though wasn't it?  Cosi, Corsi/Cl and Fenwick.   Every single year had to suffer through an entire THN issue on what team was the best and how we lined up.   Not anymore, not since PIT thankfully.  (Becuase LA and CHI had just won 5 in a row and were both tops in the league in this regard)... so happy PIT won ... 

Edited June 29, 2021 by IBatch

[Bertuzzipunch]

9 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Lol quoted myself...I like Manson (above), could be worth seeing what we could trade to get him.  

Montour showed a lot of class and heart when buffalo was going thru that 15 or so losing streak the sabres were in. I think him or manson would be nice to kick the tires on.

[Ajax-]

On 6/27/2021 at 4:54 PM, appleboy said:

What is the cost?

2years x 2.5 mill. JB get er done 

[Tom Sestito]

There are other analytics past just corsi. Some of the micro tracking stuff or whatever like the rush offense creation stuff is interesting. It’s the best way to score. 

 

I have no question that you can build teams that don’t play dominate possession. Montreal’s team is built upon the low down cycle and possession. 

 

There is no one size fits all. It isn’t solely about size, skill, possession, speed, whatever. 

 

It is just about how well you can put together talent that compliments each other and fits within a coaches structure. The way you manage cap allows you to make better decisions for the above. 

[mll]

29 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Yes.  It's an example of how something that started out as the new best next thing has died out.   Maybe some of these things really don't mean much of anything.   For 3-4 years it was all the rage though wasn't it?  Cosi, Corsi/Cl and Fenwick.   Every single year had to suffer through an entire THN issue on what team was the best and how we lined up.   Not anymore, not since PIT thankfully. 

Teams don't use that anymore.  

 

There's now tracking technology.  Was just listening to the Wally & Methot podcast who had Ottawa's AHL coach Troy Mann who was just raving of Sportlogiq.  He thinks they have 29 or 30 NHL team signed up.

 

He talks of how they use it as a teaching tool but also a scouting tool.    Would guess that it's the same use in the NHL.  Columbus has been using Sportlogiq too - Alison Lukan had several articles up on their approach to analytics in the past few years in The Athletic. 

 

Starts at the 1:01 mark.    

 

Edited June 29, 2021 by mll

[IBatch]

16 minutes ago, mll said:

Teams don't use that anymore.  

 

There's now tracking technology.  Was just listening to the Wally & Methot podcast who had Ottawa's AHL coach Troy Mann who was just raving of Sportlogiq.  He thinks they have 29 or 30 NHL team signed up.

 

He talks of how they use it as a teaching tool but also a scouting tool.    Would guess that it's the same use in the NHL.  Columbus has been using Sportlogiq too - Alison Lukan had several articles up on their approach to analytics in the past few years in The Athletic. 

 

Starts at the 1:01 mark.    

 

They also have their own departments, quite a few guys got hired and work exclusively for teams - but it was such the rage at the time two got GMs jobs in Chakya and Dubas, also happened to have given out some of the worst contracts out there (OEL, Keller - Mathews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, maybe one or two on their own would be ok but ... not really all together - all that math brain but can't "analyze" how 40 million for four players isn't a workable cap system).    With puck data just coming in i'm sure the sport will continue its trend to create even more stats.   A lot of them i just ignore.   Take one guy on one team and put them on another and it changes, leave it up to the pro scouts to make those choices.   Cernak looks great in TB... but in Vancouver?  

 

Back to Myers.   To me at least, like Burke was happy to get him, think he's a great add at a reasonable no covid cap hit and term, plays tough, doesn't get intimidated and dishes out a tough game for other forwards (our zone should be a tough zone to enter) and has the "it" factor to amp things up when it matters the most.   That's the eye test.   There was considerable back and forth between the traditionalists - the guys drinking the bad coffee and watching 2000 hours of hockey a year, a lot of it live,  compared to some that can't even skate and just rely on numbers.   Would have to go back and find the article but it was quite hilarious, and actual media war erupted over Bollands value lol.   Plus one for the analysts on that one.   Minus 50 when PIT won the first cup, minus 200 goodbye Corsi back to using it to train goalies etc....  Me i'm happy with using time on ice.   Quality of competition matters too but is also subjective, who's actually counting the seconds, when is the shift starting and ending etc (when are the players actually put out on purpose to defend during actual play) ... but it really comes down to the basic stats still with time on ice.   How much does the coach trust the player, and how is he used.  Myers was a swiss army knife and relied on a ton last season.  

[Bertuzzipunch]

4 minutes ago, IBatch said:

They also have their own departments, quite a few guys got hired and work exclusively for teams - but it was such the rage at the time two got GMs jobs in Chakya and Dubas, also happened to have given out some of the worst contracts out there (OEL, Keller - Mathews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, maybe one or two on their own would be ok but ... not really all together - all that math brain but can't "analyze" how 40 million for four players isn't a workable cap system).    With puck data just coming in i'm sure the sport will continue its trend to create even more stats.   A lot of them i just ignore.   Take one guy on one team and put them on another and it changes, leave it up to the pro scouts to make those choices.   Cernak looks great in TB... but in Vancouver?  

 

Back to Myers.   To me at least, like Burke was happy to get him, think he's a great add at a reasonable no covid cap hit and term, plays tough, doesn't get intimidated and dishes out a tough game for other forwards (our zone should be a tough zone to enter) and has the "it" factor to amp things up when it matters the most.   That's the eye test.   There was considerable back and forth between the traditionalists - the guys drinking the bad coffee and watching 2000 hours of hockey a year, a lot of it live,  compared to some that can't even skate and just rely on numbers.   Would have to go back and find the article but it was quite hilarious, and actual media war erupted over Bollands value lol.   Plus one for the analysts on that one.   Minus 50 when PIT won the first cup, minus 200 goodbye Corsi back to using it to train goalies etc....  Me i'm happy with using time on ice.   Quality of competition matters too but is also subjective, who's actually counting the seconds, when is the shift starting and ending etc (when are the players actually put out on purpose to defend during actual play) ... but it really comes down to the basic stats still with time on ice.   How much does the coach trust the player, and how is he used.  Myers was a swiss army knife and relied on a ton last season.  

Yeah i dont have that much of a problem with myers like a lot of ppl do on these boards. When his contract runs out in 3 years petey will be in line for a raise so it actually works out. Hopefully we have a prospect ready to come in to take his spot at that tine. 
 

Schmidt has a lot to prove to me if he ends up staying around and think we could find a good partner for hughes this offseason thru UFA if his money was open instead of crossing our fingers that he turns it around.

[IBatch]

5 minutes ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

Yeah i dont have that much of a problem with myers like a lot of ppl do on these boards. When his contract runs out in 3 years petey will be in line for a raise so it actually works out. Hopefully we have a prospect ready to come in to take his spot at that tine. 
 

Schmidt has a lot to prove to me if he ends up staying around and think we could find a good partner for hughes this offseason thru UFA if his money was open instead of crossing our fingers that he turns it around.

Yes i agree with Schmidt.   He was a giveaway machine last season, takeaways included still a -50 in that regard.   Doesn't really line up with his career, so hope he settles down and gets it back.   He's very quick, and has a hard shot too.   That much was noticeable at least.   Edler and Schmidt actually ended up decent together, mixing it up all over the place probably didn't help much.   Hope added coaching staff will help in this regard.   Our five man box can't be the only system.   Get why it was used, but would prefer we kept their D back and allowed a winger to push their D back, create more turnovers.   Hogs was very good with this.   Motte always is too... sure EP could also manage this assignment, if we keep the lotto line together 40 9 6 would be an interesting mix up.   Allow EP to explore and maybe explode. 

[thrago]

On 6/27/2021 at 2:00 PM, Bertuzzipunch said:

So ive been thinking. Myers is signed for 3 more years and schmidt 4. Realistically our time to be a consistent playoff team is probably in 2 years. At this time both players are well into their 30s. If we were able to get rid of one of them this offseason which one would you like it to be? Would you be okay getting rid of schmidt for a 3rd for what we payed for him. 
 

the way i see it if we draft a big RHD in the 2nd which has a lot of talent this year he could probably be ready once myers contract runs out in 3 years. Which im okay with
 

Schmidt tho i dont know and dont think weve seen the best of him yet but still counts for a lot on the cap which can be used to find serviceable dman maybe even for a year where a lot of good defenseman will be UFAs. If he was signed for 2 years instead of 4 id be okay with but the contract is too long for our team imo.

 

who would you rather trade this offseason?

How is Schmidt well into his 30's when he is 29 atm?

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Tom Sestito said:

WAR in hockey isn’t good yet. I do think if you plotted it, it’s correct more often than not but it’s not good enough yet overall. 

 

I posted it because you asked for QOC and QOC is posted there.

 

The whole bull$&!# about how you need to have X to win annoys me. You can win being an average possession team if you have elite goaltending, good special teams, and luck. I don’t want to get into all of that because I feel like you went from asking about QOC to going down this whole hole of other stuff.

 

Agreed on the stats analysis... 
 

You mention Cernak and to me Myers is the closest comparable to him with his size, skating, ability to jump up into plays and toughness in front of the net.  

If you put Myers on that Tampa team he would look every bit as good as Cernak does.  
 

I get the 6 mil cap hit, but there aren’t many RHDs that are available that will cost you less.  
 

David Savard would be a great signing but he will come in close to 6 mil too. 
 

Acquiring a RHD in a trade will require an astronomical cost as well. 

 

[Bertuzzipunch]

7 minutes ago, thrago said:

How is Schmidt well into his 30's when he is 29 atm?

He turns 30 in 2 weeks

 

When petey is 26 nate will be 34

[thrago]

1 minute ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

He turns 30 in 2 weeks

 

When petey is 26 nate will be 34

Turning 30 in two weeks still isn't well into your 30's right now which is what the OP stated. Maybe they meant at the end of contract IDK.

[Bertuzzipunch]

Just now, thrago said:

Turning 30 in two weeks still isn't well into your 30's right now which is what the OP stated. Maybe they meant at the end of contract IDK.

Im the OP

[thrago]

1 minute ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

Im the OP

Ahh lol then I guess you would know.