[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[stawns]

3 hours ago, JM_ said:

Miller at 50% for one year is ridiculous value. That trade would be good for us from a futures pov, but I'd be pretty concerned about Byram, that noggin can't take another hit. 

I think they've taken the over cautious approach and are probably passed the real risky part.  For me, it's worth the risk as he does everything Hughes does and more.  Hughes, OEL and Byram on the left side would be unreal

[Elias Pettersson]

11 minutes ago, c00kies said:

The problem wasn't passing on drafting Tkachuk, but rather not drafting the best defenseman. If we had Sergachev, most people wouldn't care that we passed up on Tkachuk as the two players would be comparable value.

 

I was okay grabbing the first d-man of the draft over Tkachuk at the time, but we missed on the pick, which means the gamble didn't pay off. Tkachuk was the safe player to draft though, so it sucks to see the easy play ignored.

Sergachev wasn't the best defenceman in that draft.  Not at the time anyways.  Neither was McAvoy.  Juolevi was consistently ranked in the top 10 and alot of people including Bob Mackenzie had him ranked as the top Dman on his board.  Tkachuk was the next guy up, he was the guy to take at 5.  But I don't blame Benning for going after need and picking a Dman.  I mean 6 years later and we are still weak on D so that tells you why Benning went that route.

[NucknAsia]

11 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Yes, the Rangers are currently in their window, we are not.  They have done a good job in drafting but they also had some high picks as well (Lareniere, Kakko), and they also got lucky with Adam Fox who basically forced his way onto the team.

 

The Rangers had the first overall pick not that long ago, and also the second overall pick, so their window only opened up recently.  I don't see a scenario where we get those high picks and pick up a guy like Adam Fox in free agency, so we will have to make do with what we have plus whatever we can get if Miller is traded.

 

Like I said earlier our main expensive pieces are in place.  We have our Shesterkin, our Fox and our Zibanejad.  They have Panarin and we have Miller.  The Rangers have Trouba and some better depth.  If you go down the list player for player we are probably 4-5 guys short of what they have.  Opening up cap space will be huge to acquire those missing pieces.  Any Miller trade needs to being back a legit bonafide NHL player.  Picks and prospects for Miller will be a risky move unless we compensate by signing a big name free agent to compensate.

Yes well said. The idea of trading Miller for prospects and picks is absurd. Too many people place too much value on that (futures)

 

More players don't live up to their draft projections than those who do, and trading your best player seldom brings back equivalent value. If we look through history, the team getting the better player at the time, has tended to win the trade - its very hard to trade a great player and get his value back.

 

The ONLY way to try to recoup that value is with players who have at least proven they are already NHL players. The rangers ship has likely sailed but I can see Boston being very desperate as they are in a spot where they can't tear it down and desperately need center depth even if Bergeron comes back...I think there could be a trade there for Miller and Meyers that helps both teams. Boston for the now, us for the future.

 

To Boston

Miller (retain 30%)

Myers

 

 

To Van:

Carlo

Lysell

Debrusk

Conditional First (re-sign miller) else 2023 second.

 

Edited May 31, 2022 by NucknAsia

[rekker]

10 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Yes, the Rangers are currently in their window, we are not.  They have done a good job in drafting but they also had some high picks as well (Lareniere, Kakko), and they also got lucky with Adam Fox who basically forced his way onto the team.

 

The Rangers had the first overall pick not that long ago, and also the second overall pick, so their window only opened up recently.  I don't see a scenario where we get those high picks and pick up a guy like Adam Fox in free agency, so we will have to make do with what we have plus whatever we can get if Miller is traded.

 

Like I said earlier our main expensive pieces are in place.  We have our Shesterkin, our Fox and our Zibanejad.  They have Panarin and we have Miller.  The Rangers have Trouba and some better depth.  If you go down the list player for player we are probably 4-5 guys short of what they have.  Opening up cap space will be huge to acquire those missing pieces.  Any Miller trade needs to being back a legit bonafide NHL player.  Picks and prospects for Miller will be a risky move unless we compensate by signing a big name free agent to compensate.

Add to that, Rangers made a great trade to land young Zbandajat. We need to make a similar trade, possibly with Miller. 

[Elias Pettersson]

5 minutes ago, rekker said:

Sergachev, Chychrun, McAvoy were there, and Canucks pick a kid who can't even get a sun tan playing in Florida. Brutal. I remember watching OJ at the young guns in Penticton and being so underwhelmed. I tried to root for the kid, but he lost me with the Starfish impression at training camp. 

Is there a draft board from 2016 that shows McAvoy ahead of Juolevi?  Hindsight is 20/20...

[rekker]

4 minutes ago, stawns said:

I think they've taken the over cautious approach and are probably passed the real risky part.  For me, it's worth the risk as he does everything Hughes does and more.  Hughes, OEL and Byram on the left side would be unreal

I agree. The pieces are there for Miller to Avs trade. I hope the Avs lose to the Oil. Ewww, and unlikey. I hope the Avs lose to the Bolts in the final. Quite likely. 

[Elias Pettersson]

3 minutes ago, rekker said:

Add to that, Rangers made a great trade to land young Zbandajat. We need to make a similar trade, possibly with Miller. 

Yeah, that was a steal for sure.  I would say we made a great trade for Miller as well...

[rekker]

7 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Is there a draft board from 2016 that shows McAvoy ahead of Juolevi?  Hindsight is 20/20...

Don't need a draft board. The fact that scouting department thought OJ was the best D at the draft is unforgivable. If JB made the final call, he deserved to get fired. Horrible pick. Horrible at the time, horrible in hindsight. Edit, I'm in  pissy mood, lol. 

Edited May 31, 2022 by rekker

[rekker]

2 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Yeah, that was a steal for sure.  I would say we made a great trade for Miller as well...

Absolutely. A steal of a trade for JT, and if we had a better team, a better group of entry level players, maybe we're playing in the final four. Broken record, but the Canucks lack of drafting and developing dmen the last 10 12  years is historically laughable. 

[mll]

1 minute ago, rekker said:

Don't need a draft board. The fact that scouting department thought OJ was the best D at the draft is unforgivable. If JB made the final call, he deserved to get fired. Horrible pick. Horrible at the time, horrible in hindsight.

MacIntyre in May 2020:  Juolevi was Benning’s choice back in 2016 because the GM wanted a defenceman and loved what he saw from the Finn at the world juniors. He could have chosen Mikhail Sergachev or Charlie McAvoy. Benning is believed to have gone with Brackett’s first-round recommendation ever since.  

[c00kies]

1 minute ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Is there a draft board from 2016 that shows McAvoy ahead of Juolevi?  Hindsight is 20/20...

I think McAvoy was later on for sure. At the end of the day, Benning drafted position over BPA and didn't get a d-man that stuck for that gamble. 

[rekker]

7 minutes ago, mll said:

MacIntyre in May 2020:  Juolevi was Benning’s choice back in 2016 because the GM wanted a defenceman and loved what he saw from the Finn at the world juniors. He could have chosen Mikhail Sergachev or Charlie McAvoy. Benning is believed to have gone with Brackett’s first-round recommendation ever since.  

Well. My pissy mood just got pissier. Lol.

[Ohthehumanity]

1 hour ago, Me_ said:

The reality is, you keep Miller and improve your team. You don’t sell off a star because you may not go the whole way. 
 

You add to it. You don’t delete. There are a plethora of assets we can get rid of. 
 

Moller isn’t one of them.

If Miller was 2-3 years younger, then you lock him up long term. The problem is he is going to be 30, and how many of those years on a 7 year deal will he be effective? Like it or not, our window to compete is barely open a crack with the team we have due to certain contracts like OEL, and Myers for example.

[MeanSeanBean]

31 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

For sure, I get that alot of people don't want to sign 29 year old players to long term expensive extensions.  It is a risk, no question and I don't think anyone can say that it's not.

 

However, pretty much every team does it to some extent, most of the top teams in the NHL have at least one player signed to a long term extension well into their 30's.  It's unavoidable to be honest.  You want to reward your star players, not just treat them like cattle and as soon as they hit 29 years old they are out the window.  Lots of teams in this year's playoffs were playing with guys in their 30's making over $8 million a year.

And I'm willing to take those chances as well. If all for signing Horvat on a long term deal into his 30s. I just personally don't think Miller is the guy we risk the bank on. If he's willing to sign a 7.5 million dollar deal, sure I'd do that long term. But if he's looking for 8 or 9 I don't think we can risk that personally. If we were in a better cap situation my opinion might be different, but we aren't. Can a non playoff team with a weak prospect pool afford to have 2 players north of 30 eating up big dollars? In my opinion, the OEL trade was writing on the wall for Miller.

[NucknAsia]

35 minutes ago, rekker said:

Don't need a draft board. The fact that scouting department thought OJ was the best D at the draft is unforgivable. If JB made the final call, he deserved to get fired. Horrible pick. Horrible at the time, horrible in hindsight. Edit, I'm in  pissy mood, lol. 

It seems the draft team got overly excited by Juolevi's performance in the short WJC. An error many have made. Short tournaments mean nothing. What I was surprised about, as I watched the OHL alot at that time, was not McAvoy as I had not seen him play, but rather Sergachev AND Chychrun

 

OJ, Sergachev and Chychrun are LD

Sergachev - bigger, stronger, more mobile, better skater, played more aggressively, and put up equivalent points on a weaker team than OJ

Chychrun  - bigger, stronger, more mobile, better skater, played more aggressively, and put up equivalent points on a weaker team than OJ

 

Even if you discount McAvoy, those next two were both in the OHL, both brought MORE to the table than OJ, were better skaters, more physical, and simply already had frames that showed they could play in the NHL (whereas even Benning said at the draft OJ needed to gain strength).

 

So I just will never get how a non professional scout such as myself, could see that both Sergachev and Chychrun had better odds of being successful in the NHL, it was just common sense. OJ was a reach and a project at #5 as he wasn't a clear NHL player. Sergachev may not have developed the same here (or in MtL) but regardless, both were common sense better picks.

 

JB was a mess.

Edited May 31, 2022 by NucknAsia

[NucknAsia]

26 minutes ago, Shayster007 said:

And I'm willing to take those chances as well. If all for signing Horvat on a long term deal into his 30s. I just personally don't think Miller is the guy we risk the bank on. If he's willing to sign a 7.5 million dollar deal, sure I'd do that long term. But if he's looking for 8 or 9 I don't think we can risk that personally. If we were in a better cap situation my opinion might be different, but we aren't. Can a non playoff team with a weak prospect pool afford to have 2 players north of 30 eating up big dollars? In my opinion, the OEL trade was writing on the wall for Miller.

Personally, I think its less about the money and more about the combination of money and where we are on the "team development curve". Miller is a guy you sign for that term when your team is ready to start competing for cups and your team is built but needs over the hump. We are still building the team to get to the hump (sadly).

 

We all love Miller, we all wish we were further ahead of the development curve but we are not. I don't think there is one fan in Vancouver who doesn't respect and appreciate and truly love what Millsy brings. That's why its hard....

 

The upside is, as much as JB failed repeatedly, he has left Alvin and JR a jewel. We took at 50 pt center and turned him into a 99 pt star that most teams will covet. We will get back more than we invested (if they manage the trade well), but it should and has to position us to eventually win a cup.

People lamented the trading of Linden at the same age. Boy that hurt us all, and definitely hurt more than Miller will. You want to talk about ripping the heart out of a franchise, out of the fan base? We were gutted. Linden was stan smyl with size, he was the heart of what it meant to be a Canuck.

BUT that Linden trade turned into Bertuzzi, McCabe and Routu. McCabe and our next first turned into one of the twins. 

 

When you look at what that Linden trade did for the franchise, seeing the west coast express, then the Sedins, it really shows that the right trade can lead to many great things for us fans.

 

We just have to hope our management can make a good deal to set us up....if they do, maybe we see a decade of winning again.

Edited May 31, 2022 by NucknAsia

[rekker]

14 minutes ago, NucknAsia said:

It seems the draft team got overly excited by Juolevi's performance in the short WJC. An error many have made. Short tournaments mean nothing. What I was surprised about, as I watched the OHL alot at that time, was not McAvoy as I had not seen him play, but rather Sergachev AND Chychrun

 

OJ, Sergachev and Chychrun are LD

Sergachev - bigger, stronger, more mobile, better skater, played more aggressively, and put up equivalent points on a weaker team than OJ

Chychrun  - bigger, stronger, more mobile, better skater, played more aggressively, and put up equivalent points on a weaker team than OJ

 

Even if you discount McAvoy, those next two were both in the OHL, both brought MORE to the table than OJ, were better skaters, more physical, and simply already had frames that showed they could play in the NHL (whereas even Benning said at the draft OJ needed to gain strength).

 

So I just will never get how a non professional scout such as myself, could see that both Sergachev and Chychrun had better odds of being successful in the NHL, it was just common sense. OJ was a reach and a project at #5 as he wasn't a clear NHL player. Sergachev may not have developed the same here (or in MtL) but regardless, both were common sense better picks.

 

JB was a mess.

So true. Like I said, I saw OJ at the young guns, was so disappointed. Weak, slow, so underwhelming. 

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, rekker said:

Don't need a draft board. The fact that scouting department thought OJ was the best D at the draft is unforgivable. If JB made the final call, he deserved to get fired. Horrible pick. Horrible at the time, horrible in hindsight. Edit, I'm in  pissy mood, lol. 

Every team has a draft board.  OJ was pretty much a top 10 pick on every board.  Bob Mackenzie's final rankings had him at 6.  Just because he turned into a bust doesn't mean he should have been ranked lower.  Injuries screwed up his career.  Same with alot of other players.  Nolan Patrick is another great example.  The Flyers took him over Heiskanen, Petey and Makar.

[rekker]

1 minute ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Every team has a draft board.  OJ was pretty much a top 10 pick on every board.  Bob Mackenzie's final rankings had him at 6.  Just because he turned into a bust doesn't mean he should have been ranked lower.  Injuries screwed up his career.  Same with alot of other players.  Nolan Patrick is another great example.  The Flyers took him over Heiskanen, Petey and Makar.

I get the draft board, but consensus means nothng to me. I just never saw it in OJ, and a previous poster eluded to it as well. I just can't defend the pick. Any draft analyst will tell you it's tricky picking a dman so high in the draft. Most D picked that high show more. Injuries? Meh, even when healthy OJ looked like he was always about to cough up a flem ball. He will be playing in Europe soon enough. 

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, NucknAsia said:

Yes well said. The idea of trading Miller for prospects and picks is absurd. Too many people place too much value on that (futures)

 

More players don't live up to their draft projections than those who do, and trading your best player seldom brings back equivalent value. If we look through history, the team getting the better player at the time, has tended to win the trade - its very hard to trade a great player and get his value back.

 

The ONLY way to try to recoup that value is with players who have at least proven they are already NHL players. The rangers ship has likely sailed but I can see Boston being very desperate as they are in a spot where they can't tear it down and desperately need center depth even if Bergeron comes back...I think there could be a trade there for Miller and Meyers that helps both teams. Boston for the now, us for the future.

 

To Boston

Miller (retain 30%)

Myers

 

 

To Van:

Carlo

Lysell

Debrusk

Conditional First (re-sign miller) else 2023 second.

 

As usual, nothing is that black and white. What if we turn around and use some of those futures to nab guys like Roy or Hague from Vegas?

 

More than one way to skin a cat...