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Debunking the Detroit model myth?

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#1 Canuck Surfer

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 05:52 PM

There is the widely accredited concept that Detroit is the epitome of developing players?

To be fair; Detroit has always had the fortune to find stars in the draft. Scouting is most certainly one of, if not the biggest factors in their long term success.Yzerman, Fedorov, Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg... Some late round finds legit stuff of legend for their scouts. But they have also had 4 or 5 year stretches where only one, maybe two draft picks made their squad. Yeah, that they were stacked was a factor.

So lets look at that, I don't see that it is fair to add development to that credit?

Being stacked, players have had to seriously outplay vets to get on the squad. I suppose that is a pretty good development problem, or message? And as above, the ones who passed mustard were in fact stars. I suggest coups of modern scouting, not development. But a lot of picks and prospects ended up moving on cuz they could not pass the test. See Ville Leino. They just ended up being what they actually were; mediocre prospects!

The real truth? For as long as I can remember they rounded out their team with veterans. No team has been better at signing / hanging on to or acquiring by trade veteran stars (sometimes fading elsewhere) who became remarkably productive again with reduced roles to extend their careers. Rafalski, Vyacheslav Fetisov, Bertuzzi, Shanahan, Chelios, Dallas Drake, Brett Hull, Hasek, Luc Robitaille, Fredrik Olausson, Larionov, Larry Murphy..., even role players like Cleary and Kris Draper are all examples. More recently guys like Modano and Brad Stuart. Alfredsson and Weiss in todays world are live examples of the real Detroit model!

Not all worked out, see the return of Samuelsson who was brought back to push promising Nyquist for a roster spot in 2012/13. Nor has Nyquist yet developed into one of those stars.Those veterans all took roles a prospect pencilled themselves in to.

In my opinion suggesting Detroit is built on player development is a bit of an overrated myth?
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#2 J.R.

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 05:58 PM

Personally I think the "Detroit model" isn't as simple as "good player development".

It's more about minimizing the width and depth of the valleys while maximizing the peaks in the natural growth of a team core as it starts, improves/matures and declines/ages. Ideally you have overlapping cores so that as one's peaking another's just declining.

To do that you need smart management, good drafting/development, signing/retaining quality vets etc.

It's not just one thing.
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#3 lmm

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 06:05 PM

JR that is exactly why the Canuck have never won.
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#4 chrisbanks

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 06:08 PM

the detroit model is that they have guys that know what they are doing running the team...
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#5 Sedins23

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 06:09 PM

Well consider this. We haven't missed the playoffs once since we have been using this model. Although we might this year cause Tort's isn't Detroit model.

Edited by Sedins23, 23 January 2014 - 06:11 PM.

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Kassian for Krug will happen, Book it.

 


#6 sam13371337

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 06:17 PM

detroits overrated
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Fire MG

#7 Sedins23

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 06:17 PM

*
POPULAR

JR that is exactly why the Canuck have never won; Management can't do anything right

Got Em Right
Ehrhoff
Sundin
Samuelson
Torres
Malhotra
Hamhuis
Garrison
Lapierre
Higgins
Hodgson
Stanton
Santorelli
Richardson
Tanev
Lack

Promise Players
Shinkaruk
Horvat
Kassian(just beginning)
Gaunce
Lain
Jensen(just beginning)
McNally
Dalpe
Schroeder

Mistakes
Ballard
Booth
Sturm
Roy
Pahlson

That's just off the top of my head. Please go into any previous canucks management and find that many good finds, good signings and good trades. People over criticize gillis for his few mistakes and want him fired but trust me this guy finds way more good players compared to bad. If gillis ever gets fired you will see him land a job quickly and go onto more success elsewhere. Vancouver fans never know what they have till it's gone.

Edited by Sedins23, 23 January 2014 - 06:24 PM.

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#8 The Bookie

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 06:17 PM

In regards to the veteran thing, Babcock talked a bit about that on the recent 24/7. He said that one of the biggest things he stresses is the older players impressing upon the rookies the importance to work as hard as possible every time they are on the ice, whether its a game or a practice or just a skate. He also said it applies to himself and the management as well, to show the veterans/star players that they are always working hard to put them in the best position to win, and they showed him jogging around the concourse.

I remember it got a real LOL out of me because directly afterwards they cut to that scene of Randy Carlyle failing to operate a toaster.
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#9 Tragoedia

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 06:20 PM

JR that is exactly why the Canuck have never won.

To be fair though, they have only started using this model in recent years. We haven't seen the second wave fully come in yet. If Horvat makes the team next year our second wave will be looking pretty decent, with Kassian, Horvat, Lack, Tanev, Stanton, and possibly Gaunce or Jensen we don't look bad for young players. A possible young UFA might be signed this offseason as well.
We also have some extra pieces that may or may not fit in next season, but still are assets of this point (of varying values). These being Shroeder, Dalpe, Welsh, Lain, Archibald, and such. None of these are high value prospects, but still have some value either to keep or add into a trade deal.

The Sedins, although their offense has detoriated this season (no sign whether this is injuries, slump, lack of chemistry/ moral, just an anomaly, or indicitive of the future yet), are still producing 65-70 pts, decent first line numbers. Our lack of secondary scoring is the real killer at the moment from the second line.
But the cap goes up next season and I think we will see the start of either the last portion of the Sedin era or the final portion. Whether they are superstars for 4 more years or just team leaders and offense producers remains to be seen, but this team is not done yet. Hopefully by the time they retire the team will have rebuilt as new (4 years to do that without tanking hopefully).
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#10 Florence

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 06:21 PM

Only Datsyuk and Zetterberg were steals. Outside of that nothing else was that unbelievable.
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#11 ManUtd

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 06:22 PM

Being stacked, players have had to seriously outplay vets to get on the squad. I suppose that is a pretty good development problem, or message? And as above, the ones who passed mustard were in fact stars.


Mustard? Awesome. Never seen that before. Made my day.

Edit: I was with you up until then but now that's all I can think about so I can't really say whether I agree with the whole thing or not.

Edited by ManUtd, 23 January 2014 - 06:25 PM.

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#12 Klaus Daimler

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 06:22 PM

Ehrhoff
Sundin
Samuelson
Torres
Malhotra
Hamhuis
Garrison
Lapierre
Higgins
Hodgson
Stanton
Schroeder
Santorelli
Richardson
Tanev
Lack

Promise Players
Shinkaruk
Horvat
Kassian(just beginning)
Gaunce
Lain
Jensen(just beginning)
McNally

Mistakes
Ballard
Booth
Sturm
Roy
Pahlson

That's just off the top of my head. Please go into any previous canucks management and find that many good finds, good signings and good trades. People over criticize gillis for his few mistakes and want him fired but trust me this guy finds way more good players compared to bad. If gillis ever gets fired you will see him land a job quickly and go onto more success elsewhere. Vancouver fans never know what they have till it's gone.


Are you Jesus? I think you're Jesus.
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#13 Sedins23

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 06:33 PM

Are you Jesus? I think you're Jesus.

"Woke up and, Saw Jesus, I think I must be drunk" 38 seconds
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL-rMkhOLSk

Edited by Sedins23, 23 January 2014 - 06:48 PM.

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#14 oldnews

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 07:32 PM

No real myth here that's been 'debunked' imo.

Is it a myth that Detroit excels in player development? Don't think you've really made your case. Look at the players they've drafted that are on their roster.

Do they add some moneyball veterans that are undervalued but come back and produce in Detroit? Apparently, and that would indicate the ability to see value where others don't necessarily - not unlike their ability to find gems late in the draft. It would also suggest a coaching staff that knows how to get the best out of players, knows how to use those players to their strengths, and a scouting staff that identifies players that are probably being under/mis-utilized.

Making the playoff for a few decades in a row - many times as very high seeds - and generally picking in the bottom half of the draft for 21 straight years - while perenially managing to retool their team nevertheless - that is pretty solid evident that the Detroit model is anything but a myth.
The proof is in the pudding. They've been pudding themselves in the playoffs since Tomas Tatar was born.

Edited by oldnews, 23 January 2014 - 07:53 PM.

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#15 Canuck Surfer

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 07:54 PM

Personally I think the "Detroit model" isn't as simple as "good player development".

It's more about minimizing the width and depth of the valleys while maximizing the peaks in the natural growth of a team core as it starts, improves/matures and declines/ages. Ideally you have overlapping cores so that as one's peaking another's just declining.

To do that you need smart management, good drafting/development, signing/retaining quality vets etc.

It's not just one thing.


I agree with Chris below; JR's point is one of the shrewdest I've seen on CDC.

Possibly / probably what MG was trying to accomplish (possibly 1 year late?) when he mentioned "reset"at the beginning of last off season. Some misinterpreted that as we would blow up the core. In fact we were just prioritizing setup of the next peak?

And that may take till next year or 2015.

JR that is exactly why the Canuck have never won.


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#16 Canuck Surfer

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 08:23 PM

No real myth here that's been 'debunked' imo.

Is it a myth that Detroit excels in player development? Don't think you've really made your case. Look at the players they've drafted that are on their roster.

Do they add some moneyball veterans that are undervalued but come back and produce in Detroit? Apparently, and that would indicate the ability to see value where others don't necessarily - not unlike their ability to find gems late in the draft. It would also suggest a coaching staff that knows how to get the best out of players, knows how to use those players to their strengths, and a scouting staff that identifies players that are probably being under/mis-utilized.

Making the playoff for a few decades in a row - many times as very high seeds - and generally picking in the bottom half of the draft for 21 straight years - while perenially managing to retool their team nevertheless - that is pretty solid evident that the Detroit model is anything but a myth.
The proof is in the pudding. They've been pudding themselves in the playoffs since Tomas Tatar was born.


What are their impact players currently whom they have drafted?

Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Howard, Kronwall and perhaps Franzen... Thats not crash hot, elite status of Zetterberg and Pavel already noted.

Nor is their vault of picks (hailed on CDC) coming to any rescue ATM. Tatar, Abdelkader, Eaves, Nyquist, Jurco, Emmerton?

Their last cup? Definitely better; add Lidstrom, Filppula, McCarty, Samuelsson, Hudler, Ericsson, Kopecky...

02'Cup winner was anchored by Yzerman, Federov and Lidstrom. But its core had Hasek, Shanahan, Robitaille, Hull and Chelios. Thats 5 hall of famers not drafted by Detroit. Sure Datsyuk had 35 points, Holmstrom 25. I'm not calling that a cup built on player development.
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#17 etsen3

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 08:28 PM

Here's another one: is the so-called "Detroit model" even a "model"? It's not like they pioneered the concept of having competitive teams year in and year out rather than tanking. Every team wants to do this and has wanted to do this since the beginning of time, it's just that Detroit has been successful at it due to good drafting and acquisitions. They don't rebuild because they don't have to.

It's harder for a team to do this nowadays due to the salary cap and draft format obviously, but I don't think you can call it a "model" when really it's just being good at what you do.

Edited by etsen3, 23 January 2014 - 08:30 PM.

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#18 oldnews

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 09:14 PM

What are their impact players currently whom they have drafted?


Come on Surfer, you haven't done your homework.

9 of their top 10 scorers are their own draft picks. Their starting goaltender is their own pick.

Zetteburg
Datsyuk
Kronwall
Franzen
Tatar
Abdelkader
Nyquist
Andersson
Smith
Kindl
Helm
Dekeyser undrafted fa
Ericsson
Sheahan
Jurco
Glendening
Emmerton
Lashoff
Almquist
Marchenko
Ouellet
Howard
Mrazek

All their own 'products'. 22 players on their roster.

As for their 'vault' of prospects that you belittle, I'm going to venture to say that you aren't qualified to assess it - and probably don't have quite the idea of who the 'no names' (ironically) in their prospect pool are that their scouts, with a record that speaks for itself, do.

Their playoff success speaks for itself as well. I guess you missed last year's playoffs where their failing impact players and lack of young talent merely put them in a 7th game overtime with the Hawks in the second round. Some folks around here had already pencilled in their demise midseason.

I don't really see your point, or why you'd try to make one like this.

Call it a 'system', 'model', approach, group, braintrust, or whatever you want - they've made it work with a consistency that any team would want to emulate.

Anthony Mantha at 20th overall is the highest pick they've had since Kindl at 19th in 2005, the one time they've had a pick in the top 20 since 1991.

So you can go with the Edmonton 'model' if you want Surfer, but Detroit's would be more than welcome here.

Yeah, they make the most of what they have to work with.

Edited by oldnews, 23 January 2014 - 09:51 PM.

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#19 Phil_314

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 09:52 PM

Got Em Right
Don't forget LUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!

Mistakes
Ballard
Booth well, we bought low on him for Sturm and Sammy, so it's more of a calculated gamble; the 3rd rounder's also Cassels
Sturm
Roy
Pahlson

That's just off the top of my head. Please go into any previous canucks management and find that many good finds, good signings and good trades. People over criticize gillis for his few mistakes and want him fired but trust me this guy finds way more good players compared to bad. If gillis ever gets fired you will see him land a job quickly and go onto more success elsewhere. Vancouver fans never know what they have till it's gone.


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#20 Silfverberg Snipes

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 10:31 PM

I think the main thing that Detroit does right is that they place value in skill. Over the last decade they have consistently had the ability to out-talent teams that were clearly less skilled and less poised than them. These are things that can not happen when your depth players include Santorelli, Higgins, Richardson, Booth and a bunch of fourth liners. Sometimes grit and heart just isn't good enough.

Moral of the story?

Aging Skill > Gritty Youth
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#21 icetime

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 11:40 PM

Red Wings sre mythical not a myth. Canucks had the chance but squandered it with recent decisions. Now Canucks are myth of Sisyphus. Huh? ( Need a Molsons?) Ecept we didn't steal the fire. Just took the cold left overs.

What does it take to find the new Ken Holland? Is Mike Illitch looking for a new team since his old one is so over rated? How many Cups?

Wings never would have dumped AV. The GM would have assmebled the players for coach to win. No debilitating gaoalie mess. No Matts Sundin. No terrible Luongo contract (which Lou even regrets) Lets hope Vinnie can help because I doubt the Aquilini family will be making any investmets in our mess until they make some changes at the top. Next topic -- who is next Ken Holland?



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#22 Caboose

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 12:54 AM

who is next Ken Holland?


Jim Nill in Dallas, 100%.
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#23 Ghostsof1915

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 08:39 AM

Fact: Cheapest way to get assets is to draft properly. Detroit has a system. Players rarely dive into the team without playing 1-2 seasons in the minors. As Oldnews has said, considering the poor draft positions, the fact that 22 players on their roster are draft picks. That's remarkable.

Some seasons Detroit didn't even HAVE a 1st round pick.

2012- 2nd round 49th overall
2011- 2nd round 35th and 48th overall
2010- 1st round 21st overall
2009- 2nd round 32nd and 60th overall

Despite this they have done remarkably well.

Honestly Vancouver has had a long run of success, we're starting to pay the price for it now with an aging core. And not much in the cupboard. Maybe if we quit picking up garbage players from Florida like Booth and Ballard, maybe we wouldn't need NTC's because we'd be saving $4 million a season on not paying players that don't play or pull their weight based on their contracts.
NTC's are hurting us, because now we've lost the flexibility to make changes if we need too.

Nice painting yourself into a corner there Gillis.
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#24 Canuck Surfer

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 09:09 AM

Come on Surfer, you haven't done your homework.

9 of their top 10 scorers are their own draft picks. Their starting goaltender is their own pick.

Zetteburg
Datsyuk
Kronwall
Franzen
Tatar
Abdelkader
Nyquist
Andersson
Smith
Kindl
Helm
Dekeyser undrafted fa
Ericsson
Sheahan
Jurco
Glendening
Emmerton
Lashoff
Almquist
Marchenko
Ouellet
Howard
Mrazek

All their own 'products'. 22 players on their roster.

As for their 'vault' of prospects that you belittle, I'm going to venture to say that you aren't qualified to assess it - and probably don't have quite the idea of who the 'no names' (ironically) in their prospect pool are that their scouts, with a record that speaks for itself, do.

Their playoff success speaks for itself as well. I guess you missed last year's playoffs where their failing impact players and lack of young talent merely put them in a 7th game overtime with the Hawks in the second round. Some folks around here had already pencilled in their demise midseason.

I don't really see your point, or why you'd try to make one like this.

Call it a 'system', 'model', approach, group, braintrust, or whatever you want - they've made it work with a consistency that any team would want to emulate.

Anthony Mantha at 20th overall is the highest pick they've had since Kindl at 19th in 2005, the one time they've had a pick in the top 20 since 1991.

Yeah, they make the most of what they have to work with.


No, not really. Not at all actually. Of their real impact players; none of Datsyuk, Kronwall, Zetterberg, Franzen ever played a single game in Adirondac or Grand Rapids.

Howard is the only ïmpact player drafted in the last ten years developed by their coaches and farm system. I suppose its fair to include Ericsson, but that's not on par with that core above. Detroit gets credit for being this factory that holds and develops guys in the minors. Its not warranted. They have only done that with just these two guys. We're still waiting for their home developed players. Thats the point.

DeKeyser is their only young impact player. But he was a college UFA. He was signed, showed up and was in their top 4 in the first two weeks. He's another product of scouting and recruiting.

Santorelli is ahead in scoring over any Detroit player drafted by them in the last 14 years.

Hey, you point out the factory has produced 22 drafted players on the roster. And a 2knd round visit last year. But currently they sit out of the play off race. Even in the worst division. Nobody fears playing against Almquist or Ouellet, neither of whom is on their roster BTW. I don't pretend to be an expert on their players, or if they will ultimately make it. Right now they just are not having much impact. No expertise required to judge that? In reality, they have undeveloped guys on the roster. Its actually an issue contributing to their position.

I'm sure they will be happier next year when the cap is back up, UFA's will be available and they can resume the normal business practices...

They just do not appear to be this great development factory as they get so much credit for. LA would be a much better example.

Edited by Canuck Surfer, 24 January 2014 - 09:19 AM.

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#25 J.R.

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 09:57 AM

I agree with Chris below; JR's point is one of the shrewdest I've seen on CDC.

Possibly / probably what MG was trying to accomplish (possibly 1 year late?) when he mentioned "reset"at the beginning of last off season. Some misinterpreted that as we would blow up the core. In fact we were just prioritizing setup of the next peak?

And that may take till next year or 2015.


That people don't recognize that's EXACTLY what Gillis is attempting to do baffles me. Yet people still are calling for Gillis to cash in our (finally!) decent prospect depth for a rental that may or may not make enough of an impact for a deep playoff run in a year that was always going to be a crapshoot.

This is year one of the re-tool, it's not going to be a Picasso. Be patient, the next wave is coming and if we let Gillis be his diligent self, all the "Fire Gillis" crowd will hopefully be wondering what the @#$% they were thinking in 2-3 years.

Edited by J.R., 24 January 2014 - 09:57 AM.

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#26 J.R.

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 09:59 AM

LA would be a much better example.


LA went the Pits/Chicago (and attempted Edmonton) route. Suck-balls for a decade or so and draft high.

No thanks.
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#27 Dogbyte

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:16 AM

The biggest factor as has been alluded to is that Detroit is an excellently managed team. For that reason they are always good and their draft picks can be afforeded the proper development time. Case in point Tatar, he's awesome but would have been a starter on pretty much any other team years earlier.
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#28 swflyers28

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:24 AM

I would love to have the Detroit model in Philly. They haven't missed the playoffs in what, 22 years. They don't have 1st round or 2nd round draft picks as their stars. Zetterberg was a 7th round pick, Datsyuk 6th round, Franzen 3rd round and Ericsson 9th round! They know how to draft, how to develop and how to win, simple as that. Any team in their right mind would want to run their team like Holland does. Even NJ follows the same model, don't rush players and have a good scouting department.
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#29 D-Money

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:34 AM

Yzerman, Fedorov, Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg... Some late round finds legit stuff of legend for their scouts.


That is definitely the main source of Detroit's success. Most franchises are lucky to draft a single HOF-er within a decade of drafting (we've drafted 2 in our entire history - Neely and Bure...Sedins may end up doubling that). Two would be outstanding, three an absolute coup...

...But FIVE?!?! And one of them arguably the 2nd greatest D-man of all time? It's surprising they didn't win MORE cups.

However, bringing in the vets probably helped. Look how a much of an impact a half-season of Sundin had on many of our players. Imagine if we had that sort of leadership & influence on the team on an ongoing basis? From multiple sources? It certainly couldn't hurt.
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#30 oldnews

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 11:30 AM

No, not really. Not at all actually. Of their real impact players; none of Datsyuk, Kronwall, Zetterberg, Franzen ever played a single game in Adirondac or Grand Rapids.

Howard is the only ïmpact player drafted in the last ten years developed by their coaches and farm system. I suppose its fair to include Ericsson, but that's not on par with that core above. Detroit gets credit for being this factory that holds and develops guys in the minors. Its not warranted. They have only done that with just these two guys. We're still waiting for their home developed players. Thats the point.

DeKeyser is their only young impact player. But he was a college UFA. He was signed, showed up and was in their top 4 in the first two weeks. He's another product of scouting and recruiting.

Santorelli is ahead in scoring over any Detroit player drafted by them in the last 14 years.

Hey, you point out the factory has produced 22 drafted players on the roster. And a 2knd round visit last year. But currently they sit out of the play off race. Even in the worst division. Nobody fears playing against Almquist or Ouellet, neither of whom is on their roster BTW. I don't pretend to be an expert on their players, or if they will ultimately make it. Right now they just are not having much impact. No expertise required to judge that? In reality, they have undeveloped guys on the roster. Its actually an issue contributing to their position.

I'm sure they will be happier next year when the cap is back up, UFA's will be available and they can resume the normal business practices...

They just do not appear to be this great development factory as they get so much credit for. LA would be a much better example.


I missed the part where the hockey world redefined the Detroit "model" as you have - where it became known simply as being a Grand Rapids 'development factory'. You are grasping here.
Their "model" has been far more associated with the success of their late round drafting and their scouting.
I have never heard the Detroit "model" referred to in such a reductive way as you are describing it - it's borderline strawman - a "model" is more complicated than one aspect. It has not simply been decades of luck.
I think you're simply trying too hard - and collapsing their "model" into your perception of player (specifically AHL) development isn't really debunking any myths - you're creating a myth that that is what their "model" is perceived to be. Yes, part of that model is to resist unseating young players and pulling them overseas into the AHL prematurely. Trusting that they will develop in European leagues is not a failure or lack of wisdom where player development is concerned. In addition, player development continues once those players are brought into the mix on their AHL and NHL team, and anyone who doubts Bowman (Lewis) and Babcock's ability to develop players...(might need to rethink). Another aspect of their "model" - don't rush your prospects in prematurely. Patience and a strong veteran presence are obviously also significant aspects of their "model".
If you'd named their model what it is there might be less resistance to this oversimplification.

The KIngs are a better example with 3 of their top 4 scorers being acquired in trades and half their blueline (the backbone half) - Mitchell, Greene and Regehr - none of whom are LA draft picks?

I don't know what part of 21 straight playoff appearances with one pick in the top 20 since 1991 you find to be so vulnerable to debunking, but I'm not convinced. I also wouldn't be so quick to write their season off - were you one of those who made this claim at midpoint last year? For me this is a rethread and it isn't gaining credibility. Yes there will come a point at which the Detroit Redwings actually miss the playoffs. That will not however be evidence of any myths being debunked - it's simply a law of averages that they may not be able to defy forever - but I wouldn't start betting on it quite yet.

Edited by oldnews, 24 January 2014 - 11:52 AM.

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