[Signing] Nik Ehlers 7 Year, $42M Extension

[BabychStache]

Horvat is more important to his team, future captain, plays more physical, etc and is $500k cheaper. GMJB did so well on Horvats contract. 

 

Don't get me wrong i like the Ehlers deal,  but it shows that JB did a great job on Horvat. 

[Coconuts]

Damn, gotta like that deal for the Jets. Nicely done.

[oldnews]

meh. nvmd.

[Monty]

20 hours ago, Alflives said:

but he's tiny, and plays zero defense

He’s 6 feet tall, which is actually not “tiny”.

 

Also, unless you “show your work”, like in declaring he’s “tiny”, providing evidence he plays “zero defense” is on you to show. Just saying it doesn’t make it true. You know, because it’s not. But I’ll wait for your proof.

 

As to this:

20 hours ago, Alflives said:

Seems a lot of money for his type of player.

Same money as Eriksson and 11 years younger, and does a lot more.

 

So, the Jets could have done A LOT worse then giving a 65 point+ player $6M per.

[ForsbergTheGreat]

5 minutes ago, Monty said:

He’s 6 feet tall, which is actually not “tiny”.

I like this deal, Ehlers is worth every penny but where do you see the jets going with cap room with Laine's extension coming next year.  Seems like now you got, Little, Scheifele (steal of a deal), Buff, perreault and now ehlers all locked up for the next 4 years.  If Laine is in the 40-50 goal range he will be asking for Eichel money.  Do you see any potential for running into cap troubles in the next 3 years?

[Monty]

1 minute ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

I like this deal, Ehlers is worth every penny but where do you see the jets going with cap room with Laine's extension coming next year.  Seems like now you got, Little, Scheifele (steal of a deal), Buff, perreault and now ehlers all locked up for the next 4 years.  If Laine is in the 40-50 goal range he will be asking for Eichel money.  Do you see any potential for running into cap troubles in the next 3 years?

Good question.

 

Right now, the Jets have $22.4M in cap space next season, with the only major contract going to Trouba. They do have spots to fill, but those will all be 3rd and 4th liners, who won’t cost a lot to fill.

 

Assuming they re-sign Trouba and don’t trade him, that will likely cost them $6M, which still leaves them with a lot of cap space.

 

The “problem” comes the next year, when Laine’s contract extension kicks in. However, even if the salary cap doesn’t increase (which it will), they’ll have $35M in cap space to work with, with only Blake Wheeler’s contract extension to work with. However, many in Winnipeg believe this is his last contract, as the thought is hopefully Kyle Connor is producing enough to fill that void.

 

In the end, they’ll be fine. They are already thanking their lucky stars that Scheifele is signed as cheap as he did. In hindsight, he could have signed for $8M per and he would have been worth it. $6.25M is an absolute steal.

[Alflives]

39 minutes ago, Monty said:

He’s 6 feet tall, which is actually not “tiny”.

 

Also, unless you “show your work”, like in declaring he’s “tiny”, providing evidence he plays “zero defense” is on you to show. Just saying it doesn’t make it true. You know, because it’s not. But I’ll wait for your proof.

 

As to this:

Same money as Eriksson and 11 years younger, and does a lot more.

 

So, the Jets could have done A LOT worse then giving a 65 point+ player $6M per.

My opinion is he's a small player, who plays small, as evidenced by his desire to play on the perimeter.  In his first game last night he was clearly trying to create from the outside.  

[Monty]

12 minutes ago, Alflives said:

My opinion is he's a small player, who plays small, as evidenced by his desire to play on the perimeter.  In his first game last night he was clearly trying to create from the outside.  

None of what you just said is proof or what you call “evidence”, just opinion; opinion that is also false.

 

And, as everyone knows when making a statement of truth, even one like “you need water to live”, you have to provide proof. Otherwise, one risks (ie: likely) looking foolish.

 

It’s like if I said, “Ovechkin just sits on Ovechkin Island, waiting for a one-timer.” First, it’s not true. But I’m going to make that statement, I better provide proof.

 

Now, just to show how wrong you are about Ehlers being a “perimeter player”, below is a chart that took me 10 seconds to pull. It shows his shots from 2016-2017.

 

 

Before making claims, just do the simple work. Making false claims and declaring them as truth is damaging.

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Monty said:

None of what you just said is proof or what you call “evidence”, just opinion; opinion that is also false.

 

And, as everyone knows when making a statement of truth, even one like “you need water to live”, you have to provide proof. Otherwise, one risks (ie: likely) looking foolish.

 

It’s like if I said, “Ovechkin just sits on Ovechkin Island, waiting for a one-timer.” First, it’s not true. But I’m going to make that statement, I better provide proof.

 

Now, just to show how wrong you are about Ehlers being a “perimeter player”, below is a chart that took me 10 seconds to pull. It shows his shots from 2016-2017.

 

 

Before making claims, just do the simple work. Making false claims and declaring them as truth damaging.

I said his desire to play on the perimeter is my opinion.  Your chart is about shots taken.  Does this fancy chart take into account all the other time he is on the ice?  Does it include only 5 on 5 shots?  Is it PP shots too?  I don't like Ehlers as a player, because I feel he plays a very soft perimeter game, that hurts his team's chances of winning.  It's my OPINION.  you are, of course, entitled to disagree.

[Monty]

 

 

You are, quite literally, impossible. Because, you know, STILL no proof.

[ForsbergTheGreat]

30 minutes ago, Monty said:

Good question.

 

Right now, the Jets have $22.4M in cap space next season, with the only major contract going to Trouba. They do have spots to fill, but those will all be 3rd and 4th liners, who won’t cost a lot to fill.

 

Assuming they re-sign Trouba and don’t trade him, that will likely cost them $6M, which still leaves them with a lot of cap space.

 

The “problem” comes the next year, when Laine’s contract extension kicks in. However, even if the salary cap doesn’t increase (which it will), they’ll have $35M in cap space to work with, with only Blake Wheeler’s contract extension to work with. However, many in Winnipeg believe this is his last contract, as the thought is hopefully Kyle Connor is producing enough to fill that void.

 

In the end, they’ll be fine. They are already thanking their lucky stars that Scheifele is signed as cheap as he did. In hindsight, he could have signed for $8M per and he would have been worth it. $6.25M is an absolute steal.

 

As if today these are the contracts locked up at the start of 2019

Schiefele: 6.125 (4+)

Ehlers: 6 (4+)

Little: 5.291 (4+)

Perreault: 4.125 (2)

               

Byfuglien: 7.6 (2)

Kulikov: 4.33 (1)

 

(*term remaining)

 

That leaves you at 33 million in cap.   The four big contract (I have a hard time seeing wheeler leave, he’s so underrated around the NHL) that I would assume get signed would likely be:

 

Laine: 10

Wheeler: 6.25   

Myers: 6

Trouba: 6

 

That would put the jets around 60+ million with only 10 players locked up and you’d still be in need of a goalie which could be in the 4-7 cap hit range.  There are still a lot of variables and things that can happen before the 2019-20 season (when Laine’s extension kicks in), but I just thought it’s curious to look at.  Since you follow both canucks and Jet it must refreshing seeing WPG not lock themselves down with at big UFA signing.  A 6x6 Eriksson type deal would cause a pretty big issue moving forward.

[Monty]

1 minute ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

 

As if today these are the contracts locked up at the start of 2019

Schiefele: 6.125 (4+)

Ehlers: 6 (4+)

Little: 5.291 (4+)

Perreault: 4.125 (2)

               

Byfuglien: 7.6 (2)

Kulikov: 4.33 (1)

 

(*term remaining)

 

That leaves you at 33 million in cap.   The four big contract (I have a hard time seeing wheeler leave, he’s so underrated around the NHL) that I would assume get signed would likely be:

 

Laine: 10

Wheeler: 6.25   

Myers: 6

Trouba: 6

 

That would put the jets around 60+ million with only 10 players locked up and you’d still be in need of a goalie which could be in the 4-7 cap hit range.  There are still a lot of variables and things that can happen before the 2019-20 season (when Laine’s extension kicks in), but I just thought it’s curious to look at.  Since you follow both canucks and Jet it must refreshing seeing WPG not lock themselves down with at big UFA signing.  A 6x6 Eriksson type deal would cause a pretty big issue moving forward.

I really can’t see a scenario where they keep Myers and even Wheeler.

 

Myers won’t be needed, as he’s used as a 3rd pairing defenseman, but he’s a 2nd pairing. So they won’t keep him around.

 

As for Wheeler, I don’t think he’ll command more then $5.5M. And even then, due to his age, I’m not sure it’s in the Jets best interest to keep him around at that point.

 

Trouba has no choice but to stay around till at least he’s a UFA, and $6M is about what he’s worth. But no way they keep Myers.

 

Chevy has done a great job with contracts. Locking up Laine won’t be an issue.

[ice orca]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

I said his desire to play on the perimeter is my opinion.  Your chart is about shots taken.  Does this fancy chart take into account all the other time he is on the ice?  Does it include only 5 on 5 shots?  Is it PP shots too?  I don't like Ehlers as a player, because I feel he plays a very soft perimeter game, that hurts his team's chances of winning.  It's my OPINION.  you are, of course, entitled to disagree.

Just stop, if the Canucks had selected him instead of Virtanen you would be singing a different tune right about now. You bitch about soft perimeter game and refuse to see the evidence other posters have shown you meanwhile the Canucks are loaded with the same guys you complain about.

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, ice orca said:

Just stop, if the Canucks had selected him instead of Virtanen you would be singing a different tune right about now. You bitch about soft perimeter game and refuse to see the evidence other posters have shown you meanwhile the Canucks are loaded with the same guys you complain about.

This is CDC, right?  We are Canuck's fans, right?  Maybe some Canuck's fans choose to see the faults in other teams' players, while not seeing the faults in our own?  Again, this is a Canuck's fan board, right?

As for Ehlers, (IMHAO) giving a soft perimeter player long term big money can turn out to be a big mistake.  Ehlers will need to produce big points to compensate for his poor defensive play, or he hurts his team's chances of winning - like last night for example.

[Monty]

6 hours ago, Alflives said:

As for Ehlers, (IMHAO) giving a soft perimeter player long term big money can turn out to be a big mistake.  Ehlers will need to produce big points to compensate for his poor defensive play, or he hurts his team's chances of winning - like last night for example.

 

This is all still opinion based with no facts. And yes, you’re entitled to your opinion, even when it’s wrong.

 

I can say that grass is not green, but purple, and that it’s alright because “it’s my opinion.” When people then provide proof to me that grass is in fact, not purple, I can’t just say “Well it’s my opinion.” It’s a wrong statement.

 

You’ve provided zero evidence, and have actually chosen to ignore evidence that he’s actually not a perimeter player. So you’ve still provided no proof.

 

Same as him being soft. Still no proof, because you’re basing it on the fact that he’s a skilled forward with great hands. By that definition, which is ridiculous, then Patrick Kane, Tyler Johnson, Johnny Gaudreau are also soft, because they are skilled forwards who are also several inches shorter than 6’0”. Or that Ryan O’Reilly is and plays soft because he’s only accumulated 30 PIMs in the last 3 seasons.

 

Better to remain silent and thought...

[oldnews]

5 hours ago, Alflives said:

My opinion is he's a small player, who plays small, as evidenced by his desire to play on the perimeter.  In his first game last night he was clearly trying to create from the outside.  

 

You love (to stir up) this kinda stuff don't you Alf. 

 

If he 'creates from the outside' - but creates 64 points - most people would take the 'perimeter points'.   There are all kinds of relatively smaller scorers that don't generate their points in the paint.

 

But the main thing I ask is what you base the claim of his "poor defensive play" on?

 

Ehlers played with four principal linemates last year:

Little, Laine, Scheifele and Wheeler.

 

Ehlers had a corsi of 51.5% with 55.1% offensive zone starts.  Not great, not bad.

He had 36 takeaways - not bad - not as many as giveaways (51) - but his role is to play with the puck so no surprise there, but the 36 takeaways is definitely respectable for a young player that is allegedly "poor defensively."  Not a grit player, but not his role.

 

Laine had a corsi of 48.7% with 55.2% ozone starts.  Slightly worse possession numbers than Ehlers - but an 18 yr old - so no real surprise in either case.

Little 50.9 and 53.1

Scheifele 51.7 and 53.0

Wheeler 55.0 and 52.6 - the only one whose possession/ozone starts was slightly positive - but Ehlers numbers aren't that off.

 

Something else fairly interesting about Ehlers - over 80% of his production was at even strength - 20 goals and 31 even strength assists - so clearly, he and his linemates were able to produce 5 on 5.

 

I don't see anything resembling evidence that he's 'poor defensively' - he, like Laine- who happens to be an 18 year old - obviously aren't as effective defensively as they are playing to their strengths, but in any event, the evidence is fairly clear that Ehlers et al may give up 3.5-5% possession at this point (something that also can't be separated from the D pairings they play with).   Additionally, while they may give up a slight advantage in shot diffential (which is what 'possession' numbers actually are) - Ehlers was a +3 at even strength, meaning his goal for percentage at even strength was a net positive - so no matter how you slice it, if he's a poor defensive player and 'creates from the perimeter' - he's pretty damn effective 'perimeter' player .

[Alflives]

36 minutes ago, oldnews said:

 

You love (to stir up) this kinda stuff don't you Alf. 

 

If he 'creates from the outside' - but creates 64 points - most people would take the 'perimeter points'.   There are all kinds of relatively smaller scorers that don't generate their points in the paint.

 

But the main thing I ask is what you base the claim of his "poor defensive play" on?

 

Ehlers played with four principal linemates last year:

Little, Laine, Scheifele and Wheeler.

 

Ehlers had a corsi of 51.5% with 55.1% offensive zone starts.  Not great, not bad.

He had 36 takeaways - not bad - not as many as giveaways (51) - but his role is to play with the puck so no surprise there, but the 36 takeaways is definitely respectable for a young player that is allegedly "poor defensively."  Not a grit player, but not his role.

 

Laine had a corsi of 48.7% with 55.2% ozone starts.  Slightly worse possession numbers than Ehlers - but an 18 yr old - so no real surprise in either case.

Little 50.9 and 53.1

Scheifele 51.7 and 53.0

Wheeler 55.0 and 52.6 - the only one whose possession/ozone starts was slightly positive - but Ehlers numbers aren't that muc

 

Something else fairly interesting about Ehlers - over 80% of his production was at even strength - 20 goals and 31 even strength assists - so clearly, he and his linemates were able to produce 5 on 5.

 

I don't see anything resembling evidence that he's 'poor defensively' - he, like Laine- who happens to be an 18 year old - obviously aren't as effective defensively as they are playing to their strengths, but in any event, the evidence is fairly clear that Ehlers et al may give up a 3.5-5% possession at this point (something that also can't be separated from the D pairings they play with).   Additionally, while they may give up a slight advantage in shot diffential (which is what 'possession' numbers actually are) - Ehlers was a +3 at even strength, meaning his goal for percentage at even strength was a net positive - so no matter how you slice it, if he's a poor defensive player and 'creates from the perimeter' - he's pretty damn effective 'perimeter' player .

All true, but what has he done lately? 

[Gollumpus]

5 hours ago, Monty said:

He’s 6 feet tall, which is actually not “tiny”.

People seem to only take height into consideration when discussing the size of a player. Speaking strictly with regard to their relative sizes:

 

 

Ehlers - listed as being 6' 178 lbs.

 

 

Horvat - listed at 6' 223 lbs

 

This is not a comment on their respective skill sets, or value to their teams.

 

                                                            regards,  G.

 

[Monty]

11 minutes ago, Gollumpus said:

People seem to only take height into consideration when discussing the size of a player. Speaking strictly with regard to their relative sizes:

 

 

Ehlers - listed as being 6' 178 lbs.

 

 

Horvat - listed at 6' 223 lbs

 

This is not a comment on their respective skill sets, or value to their teams.

 

                                                            regards,  G.

 

So then Tyler Myers is tiny?

[oldnews]

2 hours ago, Alflives said:

All true, but what has he done lately? 

He got shown tha money!