Advanced CHL Stats

[baumerman77]

Extraskater.com now has some more thorough CHL stats. Go check out the prospects for the 2014 Draft here:

http://www.extraskater.com/chl/players?age=17

[Brad Marchand]

Saw this a few days ago. A godsend, indeed.

One thing I noticed was that Horvat played insanely tough minutes last season. 19th in the entire CHL in quality of competition. Interestingly enough, one of the players ahead of him in that category is Jordan Subban.

Horvat also managed to score 3 more even strength points than Max Domi despite playing 7 fewer games. Not bad.

[timberz21]

Saw this a few days ago. A godsend, indeed.

One thing I noticed was that Horvat played insanely tough minutes last season. 19th in the entire CHL in quality of competition. Interestingly enough, one of the players ahead of him in that category is Jordan Subban.

Horvat also managed to score 3 more even strength points than Max Domi despite playing 7 fewer games. Not bad.

Mainly because Belleville basically liquidated their team and their was absolutely no one to play against the top line. But it is still good experience for him. Had a decent year for such an aweful team.

[TOMapleLaughs]

Seeing the word 'estimated' a lot in the stat columns, which would render those stats useless.

But there's some useful ones.

Virtanen led the CHL in EV goals scored along with Fabbri, in less 'estimated' TOI than the other leaders. He's obviously the purest scorer in the draft.

[TOMapleLaughs]

Our love for Reinhart at #1 overall also looks misplaced as Bennett leads the major offensive 'per60' categories.

In fact Draisaitl also looks more appealling than Reinhart.

Ekblad, however, looks very enticing at #1. Howitzer of a shot, size and speed. Able to rub guys like Ritchie out on the boards. So he'd be my #1 overall pick. That's the consensus.

[Rex425]

Seeing the word 'estimated' a lot in the stat columns, which would render those stats useless.

But there's some useful ones.

Virtanen led the OHL in EV goals scored along with Fabbri, in less 'estimated' TOI than the other leaders. He's obviously the purest scorer in the draft.

Virtanen is in the WHL

[TOMapleLaughs]

Virtanen is in the WHL

I meant CHL sorry.

[boxiebrown]

Our love for Reinhart at #1 overall also looks misplaced as Bennett leads the major offensive 'per60' categories.

In fact Draisaitl also looks more appealling than Reinhart.

Ekblad, however, looks very enticing at #1. Howitzer of a shot, size and speed. Able to rub guys like Ritchie out on the boards. So he'd be my #1 overall pick. That's the consensus.

Really? I think these hurt Ekblad's case for number one. Fewer ES points than Honka, DeAngelo, Fleury or McKeown, and the same as Sanheim. That suggests to me he doesn't have elite puck skills, and the history of drafting defencemen without elite puck skills is pretty ugly.

To be fair he played fewer games than most of those guys, but I also suspect he played more minutes so it probably evens out.

[canucklehead44]

Andrew Mangiapane looks like a good pick for the middle rounds. He was tied 2nd in EV points per 60 minutes. With Barrie's top scorers likely going pro next year he should move into a top line role.

[Diakonos]

Fabbri is looking good all of a sudden... how come he's not usually ranked in the 4-10 range?

Also, when you look at Reinhart's P/60 being 5th among those prospects (underneath Fabbri, Bennett, Draisaitl, and Ehlers), remember that he also spent a heckuvalot more time on ice than most of them... 27.9 minutes a game as a forward is nuts. Most among all listed prospects. Must have been exhausting and they must have relied on him for everything. He played more minutes than Ekblad the defenceman did...

Bennett, for example, is listed at 22.9. Ehlers played a lot of minutes, too, at 26.0.

[TOMapleLaughs]

Really? I think these hurt Ekblad's case for number one. Fewer ES points than Honka, DeAngelo, Fleury or McKeown, and the same as Sanheim. That suggests to me he doesn't have elite puck skills, and the history of drafting defencemen without elite puck skills is pretty ugly.

To be fair he played fewer games than most of those guys, but I also suspect he played more minutes so it probably evens out.

For defense though it's not about points though, but how about goals? Ekblad's 23 stands out.

He's not the next Doughty, but he's probably less risky than the other guys. And the importance of a stud defenseman is still pretty high. Ekblad isn't a consensus #1 if Bennett, Draisaitl or Reinhart were not flawed in some way.

[TOMapleLaughs]

Fabbri is looking good all of a sudden... how come he's not usually ranked in the 4-10 range?

Also, when you look at Reinhart's P/60 being 5th among those prospects (underneath Fabbri, Bennett, Draisaitl, and Ehlers), remember that he also spent a heckuvalot more time on ice than most of them... 27.9 minutes a game as a forward is nuts. Most among all listed prospects. Must have been exhausting and they must have relied on him for everything. He played more minutes than Ekblad the defenceman did...

Bennett, for example, is listed at 22.9. Ehlers played a lot of minutes, too, at 26.0.

Not saying this argument is invalid, but this is an example of why advanced stats are kinda overrated. They can be twisted in any different way to suit any argument.

[boxiebrown]

For defense though it's not about points though, but how about goals? Ekblad's 23 stands out.

He's not the next Doughty, but he's probably less risky than the other guys. And the importance of a stud defenseman is still pretty high. Ekblad isn't a consensus #1 if Bennett, Draisaitl or Reinhart were not flawed in some way.

He's got a howitzer for a shot, no doubt. I think he'll be a good PP guy but not an even strength stud, and the bust potential is always higher for D. I think Bennett, Reinhart and Draisatl (and Ehlers for that matter) have similar upside to Ekblad, but less risk.

[boxiebrown]

Not saying this argument is invalid, but this is an example of why advanced stats are kinda overrated. They can be twisted in any different way to suit any argument.

Yeah, normally points per 60 is an excellent measurement. Unfortunately the CHL doesn't track TOI, so Extra Skater is estimating every player's time. Their method tends to overestimate the TOI of good players and underestimate it for bad players. Reinhart's time in particular is probably grossly overstated as he was on the ice for a huge share of his team's goals. So take the ponts/60 numbers with a grain of salt.

[baumerman77]

Virtanen looks pretty good.

• The estimated quality of teammates places him 94th. Playing with worse teammates than the majority of the projected top 20 picks.
• The estimated quality of competition places him 29th. Plays fairly tough minutes but by no means the hardest out of the pool.
• % of team PP time places him 75th. (confirming the limited us of him on the PP)
• Leads (tied) in even-strength goals with 30
• 39th in the new popular "point sharing stat" (Ritchie is slightly better at 36th, Ehlers way down at 79th)

[TOMapleLaughs]

He's got a howitzer for a shot, no doubt. I think he'll be a good PP guy but not an even strength stud, and the bust potential is always higher for D. I think Bennett, Reinhart and Draisatl (and Ehlers for that matter) have similar upside to Ekblad, but less risk.

There's risk with everyone and it appears that Ekblad has impressed the scouts enough to make them get over their fears about his overall game. He'll be a very good player. The question is whether or not he's a 'franchise' type, and that's where he may fall short. Same with all these guys.

With Bennett and Reinhart there are size and strength questions, as well as the lack of 'franchise'-type skills. And Draisaitl's speed may be an issue. So all have some risk.

This isn't like last year where Jones fell due to their being some real skilled forwards being available to teams. But who knows what Tallon's intent is. I think he's got more room for Ekblad than another center, certainly.

[NEON.KNEE]

He's got a howitzer for a shot, no doubt. I think he'll be a good PP guy but not an even strength stud, and the bust potential is always higher for D. I think Bennett, Reinhart and Draisatl (and Ehlers for that matter) have similar upside to Ekblad, but less risk.

Less risk than Ekblad?

Not drafting a definite top 4 defenceman, with potential all-star top pairing norris candidate is less risky than Bennet, an undersized centre, and Ehlers, an undersized winger who played with a future pro?

you sir are on glue. Ekblad is THE only choice at #1

[Diakonos]

There's risk with everyone and it appears that Ekblad has impressed the scouts enough to make them get over their fears about his overall game. He'll be a very good player. The question is whether or not he's a 'franchise' type, and that's where he may fall short. Same with all these guys.

With Bennett and Reinhart there are size and strength questions, as well as the lack of 'franchise'-type skills. And Draisaitl's speed may be an issue. So all have some risk.

This isn't like last year where Jones fell due to their being some real skilled forwards being available to teams. But who knows what Tallon's intent is. I think he's got more room for Ekblad than another center, certainly.

For the most part I agree with you, but I have to wonder why you think Reinhart has a size and strength question? He's 6'1 and 185 pounds at 17!

[Rollieo Del Fuego]

For the most part I agree with you, but I have to wonder why you think Reinhart has a size and strength question? He's 6'1 and 185 pounds at 17!

Saw a picture of him and his two brothers, Sam has a way bigger head than the other two, I think he has a lot of filling out coming his way.

I see him at 6'2'' and 205 in a few years.

[SamJamIam]

Saw this a few days ago. A godsend, indeed.

One thing I noticed was that Horvat played insanely tough minutes last season. 19th in the entire CHL in quality of competition. Interestingly enough, one of the players ahead of him in that category is Jordan Subban.

Horvat also managed to score 3 more even strength points than Max Domi despite playing 7 fewer games. Not bad.

Other names that stuck out on the QoC column were Ehlers (at 23rd among all CHL prospects and 4th among draft eligible players), Poirier at 38th overall, Gauthier at 43rd and Gaunce at 45th.

Almost every category has Ehlers ranking damn near the top. Ridiculous ability to score and keep the puck out of his own net.