Bo Horvat | #53 | C

[Robongo]

Horvat made an outstanding play schooling Campbell to draw that penalty.

Willie needs to play him more, I can't believe he didn't get another shift after that, especially with how bad some of our other forwards have been. Even Hansen & Richardson got out on the PP instead of him.

That play wasn't just a coincidence either, he's gaining confidence, he could bring more of this if Willie would use him. And at this point we could use that kind of contribution from Bo.

Willie should give Horvat & Kassian some more minutes, and give Higgins & Bonino less minutes, Kass & Bo have been playing well lately (especially Kass since his return), while Bonino & Higgins have been subpar (at best) for some time now.

Kassian has seen his usage change and his minutes increase by a good 2-3 minutes since injury. Whether that's because they're showcasing him or not, he's still getting more ice.

Horvat's consistently playing the game low in minutes most nights and it drives me bonkers. He should be clearing 10 minutes every night and yet the coach shows little confidence in him in third periods. Richie was injured the other game and Horvat was still stapled to the bench and finished with under 9 minutes. Like you said, you can tell he's got more confidence out there and IMO has earned some more responsibility..he's not your regular teenager and our only player over 50% in the dot this season

Edited January 10, 2015 by Robongo

[DrChill]

I really would like to see bottom 6 changed up.

Matthias Horvat Kassian

Dorsett Richardson Hansen - shutdown line 95% defensive starts

[Guest Dasein]

Horvat's consistently playing the game low in minutes most nights and it drives me bonkers. He should be clearing 10 minutes every night and yet the coach shows little confidence in him in third periods. Richie was injured the other game and Horvat was still stapled to the bench and finished with under 9 minutes. Like you said, you can tell he's got more confidence out there and IMO has earned some more responsibility..he's not your regular teenager and our only player over 50% in the dot this season

Yeah it's odd that Bo's playing time has gone under 10 minutes again when he's been playing pretty well.

I really would like to see bottom 6 changed up.

Matthias Horvat Kassian

Dorsett Richardson Hansen - shutdown line 95% defensive starts

Yes, let's put Richardson, he of 19 points in 39 games and 5th highest point producer on this team, on the 4th line in favour of our rookie 4th line center with 7 points in 26 games.

Our bottom 6 has been just fine - the top 6 is where things have gone bonkers with Bonino going cold and Sedins being unreliable - you just don't know which Sedins you are getting on a given night these days.

I remember that play, Bo had one venture into the O zone, it was a 15-20 sec. shift.

I think Bo is still under orders to be first off the ice for his line...as well as usually the last one on the ice for the start of the shift.

As soon as he pots a few of those grade A chances and his wingers start producing again his ice time and role will increase...needs to get a little meaner somehow and just play.

Still on that conspiracy theory?

Edited January 10, 2015 by Dasein

[Rollieo Del Fuego]

Yeah it's odd that Bo's playing time has gone under 10 minutes again when he's been playing pretty well.

Yes, let's put Richardson, he of 19 points in 39 games and 5th highest point producer on this team, on the 4th line in favour of our rookie 4th line center with 7 points in 26 games.

Our bottom 6 has been just fine - the top 6 is where things have gone bonkers with Bonino going cold and Sedins being unreliable - you just don't know which Sedins you are getting on a given night these days.

Still on that conspiracy theory?

Just the way it is...just watch...

[Guest Dasein]

Just the way it is...just watch...

I have and it's not

[SamJamIam]

I have and it's not

I'm sure your arrogance is convincing to him.

[Darius]

For all the wrong reason.

Sam Reinhart couldn't make a weak Buffalo team. If you'd prefer Horvat over Reinhart you're fooling yourself. Making the NHL first doesn't mean he's the better player.

Also, Domi and Horvat are different players - Domi is a top 6 winger while Horvat's game allows him to begin on the 4th line. There's zero chance Horvat would have cracked Arizona's top 6 either, so moot point.

I still prefer Horvat over Domi for the solid two-way play and positional need (big shutdown center), but Domi is definitely the way to go if you want a dynamics offensive forward.

Also doubt that Horvat would have gotten the "C" over Lazar since Lazar would have played a bigger role.

That was generally the consensus that Horvat would be 3C behind Reinhart and McDavid

You make some very good points.

The big difference in my mind is their size. Domi is about 5'9" .... I think you have to be an extraordinary talent to succeed at the nhl level being "small" like Domi. I use quotes for small because in the real world 5'9" is average height.

A guy like Jordan Schroeder is a great example. He looked awesome at the juniors, was a high draft pick, but couldn't translate that success into the nhl. Schroeder was too small to be effective in the long run.

Horvat is built for the nhl. Less offensively gifted than Domi for sure...but if Domi can't produce at a top 6 level as a small forward he can look at a guy like Gilbert brule as an example of what will happen to him. At least Bo can be brought up in the bottom 6 to start and can be a valuable asset because of all the things he can do outside of scoring..

[Guest Dasein]

You make some very good points.

The big difference in my mind is their size. Domi is about 5'9" .... I think you have to be an extraordinary talent to succeed at the nhl level being "small" like Domi. I use quotes for small because in the real world 5'9" is average height.

A guy like Jordan Schroeder is a great example. He looked awesome at the juniors, was a high draft pick, but couldn't translate that success into the nhl. Schroeder was too small to be effective in the long run.

Horvat is built for the nhl. Less offensively gifted than Domi for sure...but if Domi can't produce at a top 6 level as a small forward he can look at a guy like Gilbert brule as an example of what will happen to him. At least Bo can be brought up in the bottom 6 to start and can be a valuable asset because of all the things he can do outside of scoring..

Of course any time a player is short statured (undersized), there is some concern. That being said, the reason I am not as worried about Domi is that he is a Domi. His dad made a living as an enforcer at only 5'10" (pretty sure that was inflated) - Max has similar size and grit but also unbelievable speed and skill that blows his father away.

Neither Brule nor Schroeder had the fight in them that Domi has shown. They didn't have an NHL father to show them the ropes either - training the right way, getting mentally prepared, how to play in the NHL as an undersized forward, etc since a very young age. The only similarity between the two you mentioned and Domi is height.

That being said, I think the way Jordan Schroeder played at the WJC is comparable to the way Nic Petan played. So I don't think Petan's game will translate well in the NHL, but Domi has that extraordinary talent, intangibles and background that will lead to success in the NHL despite his size IMO.

Edited January 10, 2015 by Dasein

[tyhee]

...

Horvat's consistently playing the game low in minutes most nights and it drives me bonkers. He should be clearing 10 minutes every night and yet the coach shows little confidence in him in third periods. Richie was injured the other game and Horvat was still stapled to the bench and finished with under 9 minutes. Like you said, you can tell he's got more confidence out there and IMO has earned some more responsibility..he's not your regular teenager and our only player over 50% in the dot this season

It's interesting how different people see different things.

A little under 40 years ago in an Evidence class at UBC our prof decided to give a demonstration on the lack of reliability of eyewitness testimony. He had another prof-Beverly McLachlin (who has since 2000 been Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Canada) come in and start an argument with him during our Evidence lecture. The argument had been completely scripted but the class was not aware of that.

After Ms. McLachlin (as she then was) left the class, our prof handed out a pre-printed question sheet for us to answer questions about our observations. We handed them in and the next class, a few days later, he gave us the results.

On the whole, the class did dismally. Really, really, dismally. The prof assured us that was absolutely normal and that the reason is that eyewitnesses don't do well at all at getting details correct.

Transfer that to hockey games which most posters are watching on TV rather than in person and that virtually all posters will find they have some emotions and preconceptions about, and I'd suggest that eyewitnesses testimony when someone says so and so did or didn't play well are going to be less reliable than most people would anticipate.

For that reason, rather than hate stats because they don't always fit what I've observed to be the case, I tend to rely on them somewhat (though it requires some care) when someone else has observations are inconsistent with mine.

You've specifically referred to WD benching Horvat late in games even though in your opinion he "has earned some responsibility."

Before going on I'll state that my own observations have been the opposite of yours. I didn't think he'd earned responsibility.

An hour or so I posted the following on a thread about Kassian:

___________

From the point of view of scoring, 5 on 5 only (so pp and pk points not included) per 60 minutes played through the Florida game of this past Thursday night:

Bonino 2.46 Higgins 1.95 Burrows 1.84 twins each 1.77 Richardson 1.73 Vrbata 1.61 Dorsett 1.58

Vey 1.38 Matthias 1.30 Kassian 1.29 Horvat 1.20 Hansen 1.18

source: http://stats.hockeya...CT&sortdir=DESC

Of course, there's more to the game than scoring. +/- takes into account goals for and against while on the ice at even strength, a statistic that is rightly maligned. Among the problems are the extremely small sample size.

Corsi or Fenwick statistics substantially decrease the problem with sample size. Those stats also aren't perfect, but the luck from sample size is much lower than +/-, though the sample size problem still exists with Corsi stats over partial seasons. I tend to look at relativeCorsi%, which measures Corsi relative to the teammates a player actually was on the ice with (+ is good, - is bad,) but one needs to keep in mind that Corsi stats are also skewed by zone starts (which are shown below,) strength of opponents played against (also shown below) and score effects-that is, a trailing team will tend to have higher Corsi stats as they push to catch up while the opponents defend more than usual.

Looking at Corsi stats at 5 on 5 play:

CF% CF%RelTM OppCF% OZFO% DZFO% NZFO%

Higgins 52.1 6.0 50.4 30.3 33.2 36.5

Daniel S 51.6 4.6 50.3 30.1 27.0 42.9

Kassian 50.7 3.2 50.1 31.6 33.7 34.7

Henrik 52.4 3.1 50.3 30.0 26.9 43.1

Bonino 51.0 2.9 50.3 30.2 35.4 34.4

Vrbata 50.7 1.8 50.0 30.2 27.0 42.8

Burrows 50.1 1.6 50.2 29.3 32.8 37.9

Richardson 48.3 1.1 49.9 32.4 34.5 33.1

Matthias 46.9 -1.5 50.1 31.7 32.8 35.5

Vey 46.8 -1.7 49.6 34.9 30.8 34.3

Hansen 46.4 -2.0 50.2 32.5 29.4 38.1

Dorsett 43.5 -5.7 50.0 33.5 25.0 41.5

Horvat 41.1 -7.8 50.1 31.1 26.4 42.6

Source: http://stats.hockeya...TM&sortdir=DESC as of 11:20 a.m. Jan 10, 2015.

...

Note again that stats can be skewed by various things, though a large sample size would deal with most of them. In this case, the sample size is relatively small and of course I haven't included anything other than 5 on 5 so players whose strengths are predominantly special teams won't have their abilities reflected in possession stats, nor will someone whose shooting ability is well above the norm.

Also, willingness to stand in the tough areas-especially in front of the net-are not going to be represented in shot attempt stats.

_________________

Going by the stats-both scoring and shot attempt (sometimes called "possession") Horvat hasn't been a good NHL player. Granted, he's a very good 19 year old-but neither my eyes, nor scoring stats, nor possession stats, suggest he's any better than replacement level at this stage of his very young career.

He doesn't score much.

When he's on the ice his team has had fewer shot attempts than the opposition, fewer shot attempts than would be expected by his quality of teammates on the ice with him, while starting in the defensive zone less than all but one of the other forwards for the Canucks this season. (These stats don't include Sestito, DeFazio or Jensen because the site I used this morning doesn't include players with less than 50 minutes playing time for the season.)

While the sample size is small, Desjardins' decision to limit Horvat's time is consistent with what the statistics indicate about his play.

Edited January 10, 2015 by tyhee

[avelanch]

While the sample size is small, Desjardins' decision to limit Horvat's time is consistent with what the statistics indicate about his play.

one could also argue that the statistics are consistent with how horvat has been used/deployed.

[tyhee]

one could also argue that the statistics are consistent with how horvat has been used/deployed.

I can't see how it can even be suggested the stats are the result of his deployment.

His teammates possession stats are significantly worse with him than without him. A negative -7.8% CF%REltm is truly awful-it means his teammates possession stats are much, much worse when playing with him than they are otherwise.

Also, his defensive zone faceoff starts are a smaller portion of his starts than all but one other of the top 13 forwards.

His opponents' CF% is 50.1-almost exactly average.

There's nothing there at all to suggest that his CF% is the result of playing with poorer than average teammates, against good opponents or his zone deployment.

[Guest Dasein]

Interesting post tyhee

I think it explains why Bo is not and should not be promoted any time soon, and also why he was still only playing his regular minutes when Richardson was injured - WD shelters his 19-year-old 4th line center (not surprising). It was mentioned by different posters on this board, but rarely with the numbers above.

Edited January 11, 2015 by Dasein

[Drakrami]

I can't see how it can even be suggested the stats are the result of his deployment.

His teammates possession stats are significantly worse with him than without him. A negative -7.8% CF%REltm is truly awful-it means his teammates possession stats are much, much worse when playing with him than they are otherwise.

Also, his defensive zone faceoff starts are a smaller portion of his starts than all but one other of the top 13 forwards.

His opponents' CF% is 50.1-almost exactly average.

There's nothing there at all to suggest that his CF% is the result of playing with poorer than average teammates, against good opponents or his zone deployment.

Welcome to the Canucks forum, where if a hyped prospect perform poorly, it is always because he has poor linemates.

[Rollieo Del Fuego]

Bo's development is caught between info overload and playing the role of the self effacing rookie to the vet's.

He needs playing time and to relax his mind a bit.

His development has been pretty amazing so far given the situation... his skating is improving by leaps an bounds, his first few steps are awesome now and his top speed is now above average for our team.

By the end of the season I hope to see his edge work improve to above average as well.

At that point if he is getting the playing time his true potential should be obvious to even the few dithering dolts who still can't see it.

[Boudrias]

Horvat has played with Dorsett, Hanson and Burrows which can only be a big plus. His FO % is stressed but his positioning on the ice is usually without fault. He is gaining confidence with the puck and I suspect that by season's end he will be shining.

[Hairy Kneel]

I like Horvat's game, he always seems to go where the pucks going to be.I think with more experience and confidence he will translate his forecheck into better scoring opportunities.I think he's playing like he's scared to make a mistake (rookie stuff).Nice GWG in FLA tho. Plus I think he needs to stay on top of his faceoff % game too.

[vantbl]

For the last 7 games horvat has looked really good. He's forechecking really good making some hard hits. His speed has improved by a lot since he came here. And offensively he seems to be doing more with the puck. Yesterday he made some great passes to Dorsett and Hansen for grade a chances and he also had 3 or 4 good chances himslef. Defensively though he still seems to be standing still as if still not used to the speed of the nhl. There's is no doubt in my mind that will improve as he keeps playing here

[timberz21]

I like Horvat's game, he always seems to go where the pucks going to be.I think with more experience and confidence he will translate his forecheck into better scoring opportunities.I think he's playing like he's scared to make a mistake (rookie stuff).Nice GWG in FLA tho. Plus I think he needs to stay on top of his faceoff % game too.

When you play an avg of 10 minutes per night....7-8minutes in tight games and 12-13 in blowouts....and regardless of how well or bad you play, thats enough to kill confidence in anybody.

I get the process WD is trying to establish, the learning curve, but if Horvat is not tested, pushed a little bit, how is he suppose to grow, develop. Even though, personnally I would like Horvat to be our permanent 3C, I don't understand why he hasn't been given 15-16 minutes as a 3C for at least 3-5 games this season. I mean, I know we are in a battle, the standing is tight, but that same core proved time and time again that they will fail in crunch time. Why not try him out, get some fresh blood once in a while.

All he's learning is not making a mistake, be safe, thinking too much instead of letting his talent and instinct speak for itself. He's learning to be Chris Higgins 2.0. I mean Higgins is a great depth guy, but Horvat has so much more potential.

I don't want to compare Horvat to any of them, but look at Ekblad, he was giving a chance and impressed. Or Gaudreau with the Flames, I mean he has a completely different role than Horvat, but if he can play 16minutes a night without being a liability, why can't Horvat do it. We could say the same about Burakovsky, Kuznetsov.

Edited January 21, 2015 by timberz21

[Rollieo Del Fuego]

I'm a little impatient with the playing time he gets as well but it is probably the way to go with young ones.

Although his confidence may be taking a bit of a hit here and there his playing time will increase and there is virtually zero chance he gets burned out before the playoffs which could happen to Eckblad or Johnny hockey if there minutes keep increasing.

I expect that we will have either 3 second lines come playoff time and make some noise or 3 third lines and just squeak in.I

It depends on Bonino, Matthias and Kassian our most inconsistent players if they can step it up I'm sure Bo will too.

[timberz21]

I'm a little impatient with the playing time he gets as well but it is probably the way to go with young ones.

Although his confidence may be taking a bit of a hit here and there his playing time will increase and there is virtually zero chance he gets burned out before the playoffs which could happen to Eckblad or Johnny hockey if there minutes keep increasing.

I expect that we will have either 3 second lines come playoff time and make some noise or 3 third lines and just squeak in.I

It depends on Bonino, Matthias and Kassian our most inconsistent players if they can step it up I'm sure Bo will too.

Looks more like 3 third lines so far....and I think that a problem. I get that their philosophy is to roll 4 lines and keep everyone fresh.

But at some point, you need to have 1-2-3-4th line. Right now it seems that the Bottom 9, rather than pushing themselves to win a top 6 role, they play to keep their top 9 role or not to end up on the fourth.

Competition is good when 2-3 players fight for a spot, but right now it seems like the whole bottom 9 is fighting each other. At one point they'll need to get into a groove, understand their role, and roll that way until the end (with minor tweaks here and there).

Edited January 21, 2015 by timberz21