taxi Posted June 2, 2023 Share Posted June 2, 2023 9 hours ago, Warhippy said: So hey. Guys. Wanna hear some funny math? The largest bulk or swath of home purchases in Canada in recent memory came in 2018 and 2019. We are now at the tail end of the first year since the largest series of rate increases in over a decade or more. The volume of "home investors" that purchased in the last decade; specifically the last 4-5 years or so who will have to renew this or next year with their rates going from effectively 0 to whatever the current rate will be when they walk in averaging between 5.5% to 6.4% or possibly more. These are people who will see their investment property mortgages increase by anywhere from $500 to $1200 a month depending on what they owe and what size of down payment they purchased with (many of them ver very little due to purchasing before the stress tests) Rent right now, RIGHT now is already unaffordable. What do you think is going to happen when the next 16 months goes by and the people who purchased 4-5 years ago come in to renew their mortgages and need to find an additional $500-$1200 a month JUSt to keep holding on to these insanely overpriced investment properties they couldn't afford to begin with? with the largest swath of home purchases happening between april and september. and the largest volume of home sales happening in 2018/2019 you are about to see an insane level of increases that will not be affordable for a large portion of people. The rent from investment properties has also increased vastly over the last five years. The banks will also let people refinance, effectively starting their 30 year mortgages over with a lower balance. Currently people are renewing at about 2%-4 above where things were five years ago, and there aren't a huge swath of defaults. The ultra low mortgages will be renewing around 2026. By then interest rates are expected to fall by then, leaving mortgage rates in the 3-3.5 range. That won't be enough to cause massive defaults, especially in the face of ever increasing housing shortages. I just don't think we'll see this crash. Canada's current housing planning is abysmal. We'll, unfortunately, just continue to see people die in the streets in record numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiseupsucker Posted June 2, 2023 Share Posted June 2, 2023 On 5/31/2023 at 11:33 AM, VancouverHabitant said: Electrician, but of the industrial variety. Just met someone local too, so I'm really locked in but it's not the end of the world. I barely scraped enough money to get a 1 bedroom apartment, but have no idea what the next step will be if we wanna live in a bigger place. Don't want to derail too much... Join the IBEW and get to Kitimat LNG Canada, there's fly in and out from the island. Two weeks in one off isn't that bad and you will be pulling 130 a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeneedLumme Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 As everyone who is not living in a cave is aware, we have a housing shortage in Canada, and more specifically in the Lower Mainland. I see the clowns in Burnaby City Council are doing their bit to alleviate the supply shortage by turning down a proposal from their planning staff to encourage developers to build more non-market rental housing. The proposal would allow the developers to build more condos (also alleviating the housing shortage) to compensate them for the cost of building the (unprofitable) required non-market housing. What a terrible idea by the planning department, eh, to encourage developers to provide more housing, both market and non market? No wonder council killed it, after all, everyone on city council already has a home, right? https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/burnaby-reject-plan-allow-developers-to-build-more-condos-rental-policy-review-7155973 This brilliant move by these clever politicians is rationalised by the claim that the calculations for this "offset density" are "confusing". Apparently for any proposal to be acceptable to them, the calculations in the Zoning and Development Bylaw must be simplistic enough to be easily understandable by these politicians and their constituents. Unfortunately, the real problem is that this city council is very left wing, and consequently choose to hold the belief that the path to universal prosperity includes killing the geese that lay the golden eggs. No doubt that in their minds killing this proposal (by their own planning staff!) will cause developers to build huge amounts of rental housing without any of those horrible condos that aren't real housing. Makes perfect sense, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, WeneedLumme said: As everyone who is not living in a cave is aware, we have a housing shortage in Canada, and more specifically in the Lower Mainland. I see the clowns in Burnaby City Council are doing their bit to alleviate the supply shortage by turning down a proposal from their planning staff to encourage developers to build more non-market rental housing. The proposal would allow the developers to build more condos (also alleviating the housing shortage) to compensate them for the cost of building the (unprofitable) required non-market housing. What a terrible idea by the planning department, eh, to encourage developers to provide more housing, both market and non market? No wonder council killed it, after all, everyone on city council already has a home, right? https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/burnaby-reject-plan-allow-developers-to-build-more-condos-rental-policy-review-7155973 This brilliant move by these clever politicians is rationalised by the claim that the calculations for this "offset density" are "confusing". Apparently for any proposal to be acceptable to them, the calculations in the Zoning and Development Bylaw must be simplistic enough to be easily understandable by these politicians and their constituents. Unfortunately, the real problem is that this city council is very left wing, and consequently choose to hold the belief that the path to universal prosperity includes killing the geese that lay the golden eggs. No doubt that in their minds killing this proposal (by their own planning staff!) will cause developers to build huge amounts of rental housing without any of those horrible condos that aren't real housing. Makes perfect sense, right? Maybe it's time for the decision making power to be taken away of municipalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeneedLumme Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 1 hour ago, bishopshodan said: Maybe it's time for the decision making power to be taken away of municipalities. I think the provincial government has already done something in that vein, eliminating single family zoning throughout the entire province, forcing municipalities to allow multiple housing units on every piece of residential land. Unfortunately, being politicians, you can count on them implementing this idea in some really stupid way that they think will appeal to their constituents. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Vancouver goes digital, speeds up permitting to get housing built faster Thursday, June 15, 2023 Vancouver introduces eComply, an innovative visualization tool for building permit applications, streamlining the process and ensuring compliance with regulations. The city aims to expedite housing construction with the 3-3-3-1 campaign commitment, targeting specific permit approval timelines for different types of projects. The city has made progress in digitization, reduction of review times, customer service expansion, and exploring new housing options, enhancing the efficiency and accessibility of Vancouver's development permits process. In 2024, anyone applying for a building permit in Vancouver will be able to use eComply, an innovative visualization tool that lets applicants upload building plans, check against regulations, and receive comprehensive compliance reports. “The introduction of eComply is a game-changer in getting more housing built faster," said Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim. eComply is the first program of its kind in Canada. Vancouver council also approved a motion from Mayor Sim, seconded by Councillor Sarah Kirby-Yung, to formally adopt the 3-3-3-1 campaign commitment as official city policy. 3-3-3-1 targets permit approval timelines of three days for renovations, three weeks for single family homes, three months for low and midrise projects, and one year for major projects. Vancouver goes digital, speeds up permitting to get housing built faster Full digitization of application process through e-Plan platform. Development underway of permitting automation systems (eComply). Approximately half of engineering services and DBL permit conditions have been eliminated or simplified, leading to a 30% reduction in review times. Improved applicant information access by significantly expanding customer service capacity for city’s development, buildings, and licensing department and enabling prospective applications to seek staff advice before applying. Launch of a public engagement process for missing middle housing, the exploration of allowing up to six units on a significantly larger number of residential lots. Since December 2022, average plan review times for low-density projects have seen an 80% reduction, going to just 18 days from 12 weeks. Creation of a fast track “Direct to Inspections” permit for renovations that can be issued in less than one week. The Digital Transformation Program which releases new digital features to improve permit and licensing every 8-12 weeks. Planned implementation of risk-based reviews to reduce wait times on all forms of housing applications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Arrogant Worms Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 News from a broker..... Just a heads up that one of the major banks increased their fixed rates, effective tomorrow, by over 20 bps. We are starting to see 3 year fixed rates with them above 5.8% now, with the 5 year above 5.6%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 6 hours ago, The Arrogant Worms said: News from a broker..... Just a heads up that one of the major banks increased their fixed rates, effective tomorrow, by over 20 bps. We are starting to see 3 year fixed rates with them above 5.8% now, with the 5 year above 5.6%. Here come the defaults. The spring of 2018 saw some of the fastest housing sales in Canadian history with 2019 following right behind. A large volume of homes changed hands and will be due for renewal now or within the next 16 months. Things are happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Why the great Canadian housing bubble continues to inflate The Bank of Canada is foolishly fighting a losing battle Earlier this month, I wrote about why Canadian house prices are proving to be bulletproof, despite high interest rates and heavily-indebted consumers. In the last 20 years, Canadian home prices have utterly crushed those in the US. The problem, simply is that Canada doesn't have enough homes. The country is adding 1 million people per year and isn't building nearly enough homes in large part due to draconian regulations. Today, CIBC dives deeper into a problem that I suspect will soon topple governments throughout the country. How does this sound: Guesstimating the size of the housing shortage in Canada is rapidly becoming a national sport. There is no shortage of estimates using different methodologies and assumptions. The reality is that there is no one correct number. It really depends on what you are trying to measure. But what is common to all those estimates is that they are all big. CMHC suggests that we will need an extra 3.5 million units by 2030 to restore affordability, and the province of Ontario is calling for a doubling in the annual pace of housing construction in the province to 150,000. And the reality is that, as big as those numbers are, the real gap is even larger, as official figures (upon which those estimates are based on) grossly undercount housing demand by students and non-permanent residents, as we have illustrated in previous research. Even worse, the gap is growing with every day that passes without meaningful action. The problem starts with the lack of construction workers, and if you ask people in the industry -- with falling productivity from current workers. Worse yet is that 20% of construction workers are over the age of 55 compared to 12.5% at the turn of the century. Finally, Trudeau has touted more immigration as a solution to the shortage of construction workers but Canada's immigration system highly favours white collar entrants. As a result, just 2.0% (and falling) of construction workers are new immigrants. Add it all up and you have a recipe for a generational housing problem that could take decades to fix. Worse yet is that the Bank of Canada is hell-bent on breaking the backs of mortgaged home owners to mask a supply issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said: Why the great Canadian housing bubble continues to inflate Add it all up and you have a recipe for a generational housing problem that could take decades to fix. Worse yet is that the Bank of Canada is hell-bent on breaking the backs of mortgaged home owners to mask a supply issue. And who is going to buy all those defaulted mortgages and cheap homes the banks need to offload again? Is it going to be Joe and Jane Canuck? No no no son. Why it's going to be wealthy speculators, developers and greedy property management companies existing as shell companies for larger corporate developers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Arrogant Worms Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 More broker talk..... Lowest fix rate is 5.09% 5-year fixed. As mentioned yesterday, TD raised rates by 20bps effective today. Rates will be increasing soon, so try to lock-in the rate ASAP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted July 5, 2023 Share Posted July 5, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Arrogant Worms Posted July 5, 2023 Share Posted July 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Elias Pettersson said: Stop with the political crap. Move to the USA if you don't like it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted July 5, 2023 Share Posted July 5, 2023 21 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Who dis? Sounds like he's selling sham-wow. Is he talking canadian dollars or US in his prices? I would expect Canadian homes to sell for at least 5x as much as a comparable homes in the US. The simple reason is that our country is at least 5x better than theirs. I get it though, things are too expensive. Build more units! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted July 5, 2023 Share Posted July 5, 2023 1 hour ago, The Arrogant Worms said: It's real estate related which is the topic of this thread, and I really don't need your advice on where to live... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted July 5, 2023 Share Posted July 5, 2023 1 hour ago, bishopshodan said: Who dis? Sounds like he's selling sham-wow. Is he talking canadian dollars or US in his prices? I would expect Canadian homes to sell for at least 5x as much as a comparable homes in the US. The simple reason is that our country is at least 5x better than theirs. I get it though, things are too expensive. Build more units! It's US dollars on the US side. The houses are 15 minutes apart basically in the same city. Build more units, that's been the theme in Canada for the last 20+ years... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted July 5, 2023 Share Posted July 5, 2023 14 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Build more units, that's been the theme in Canada for the last 20+ years... Build more units! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Arrogant Worms Posted July 5, 2023 Share Posted July 5, 2023 (edited) 10 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said: It's real estate related which is the topic of this thread, and I really don't need your advice on where to live... And I don't need your advice on anything. Keep politics out of here. Edited July 5, 2023 by The Arrogant Worms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted July 5, 2023 Share Posted July 5, 2023 (edited) 14 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said: You own 150+ properties and don't see how you might be the gd problem? It's Canadian real estate that's broken though right? We can fix that by limiting entirely how many corporations or individuals can buy homes and how many they can buy. That would solve a lot of the issue. An individual or corporation owning 150+ homes IS the issue. Owning that many properties allows them to skew the market Edited July 5, 2023 by Warhippy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted July 5, 2023 Share Posted July 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Warhippy said: You own 150+ properties and don't see how you might be the gd problem? It's Canadian real estate that's broken though right? We can fix that by limiting entirely how many corporations or individuals can buy homes and how many they can buy. That would solve a lot of the issue. An individual or corporation owning 150+ homes IS the issue. Owning that many properties allows them to skew the market I highly doubt he actually owns 150 properties today. He probably has purchased 150 properties in total, has renovated them and then flipped them for profit. Now, I understand that this type of a business may put people off and make it look like this person is screwing up the market for the rest of us. But to be totally honest, he is not really the problem. Guys like him fix up houses so that people don't have to live in dumps and they don't have to go out and do a renovation on their own. It's not like he is holding all 150 properties for himself, the inventory goes back onto the market as a renovated home, which is needed by alot of people. I don't think these "flippers" are actually the root cause of our crazy real estate prices. As @bishopshodan stated already, it's a massive lack of inventory. Flippers don't actually take out inventory, they eventually put it back on the market. Of course, the homes are at a higher price but they do come back onto the market. The prices that those homes sell for is simply indicative of the market itself, so they don't really set the prices. If there was a massive increase in inventory then these flippers probably don't make as much money so they would eventually be taken out of the market. If you were to look at Niagara Falls, I would bet big dollars that the inventory levels on the US side of the city are way higher than the Canadian side. Which would be reflective on the price. I'm not sure how to get that type of info but I would be very curious to know those inventory numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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