The BC Real Estate Discussion Thread

[bishopshodan]

4 hours ago, ronthecivil said:

Well the province has stepped in and given the finger to municipalities (which is it's right to do contrary to popular opinion) and told them to get building.

Haven't they wagged their finger before?

 

Anyway, they probably should step in and I agree with your statements about the challenges to get it done. We could turn all this into a boom if the powers that be would stop dragging their heels. 

[Elias Pettersson]

On 5/9/2023 at 7:28 AM, bishopshodan said:

So, was that the crash?

 

 

Yes.  Prices are already up 5% this year and climbing.  Next year the real estate market could be busier than ever.  In 2-3 years when rates are back down to 2% you will see an exponential increase in pricing.  Investors are flocking into the market right now.  Within 5-7 years you will see a doubling of prices from today.

 

Inventory levels are at 20+ year lows and we will have over 200,000 new immigrants in BC alone over the next 2 years, so inventory levels will remain low for several years, especially considering all the red tape to get buildings up.  If you want to buy an investment property, now is the time to buy it.  I have my eyes on a couple of deals out there...

[bishopshodan]

3 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Yes.  Prices are already up 5% this year and climbing.  Next year the real estate market could be busier than ever.  In 2-3 years when rates are back down to 2% you will see an exponential increase in pricing.  Investors are flocking into the market right now.  Within 5-7 years you will see a doubling of prices from today.

 

Inventory levels are at 20+ year lows and we will have over 200,000 new immigrants in BC alone over the next 2 years, so inventory levels will remain low for several years, especially considering all the red tape to get buildings up.  If you want to buy an investment property, now is the time to buy it.  I have my eyes on a couple of deals out there...

100% EP.

[ronthecivil]

10 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Yes.  Prices are already up 5% this year and climbing.  Next year the real estate market could be busier than ever.  In 2-3 years when rates are back down to 2% you will see an exponential increase in pricing.  Investors are flocking into the market right now.  Within 5-7 years you will see a doubling of prices from today.

 

Inventory levels are at 20+ year lows and we will have over 200,000 new immigrants in BC alone over the next 2 years, so inventory levels will remain low for several years, especially considering all the red tape to get buildings up.  If you want to buy an investment property, now is the time to buy it.  I have my eyes on a couple of deals out there...

Even at 2%, to finance a million plus, is kind of stupid on the hit on your income. People in BC have the lowest wages and the highest prices. How does that circle round?

 

That said, the last time I said this, they did double, and the second, they doubled again. So f**king knows?

[Elias Pettersson]

11 minutes ago, ronthecivil said:

Even at 2%, to finance a million plus, is kind of stupid on the hit on your income. People in BC have the lowest wages and the highest prices. How does that circle round?

 

That said, the last time I said this, they did double, and the second, they doubled again. So f**king knows?

People with low wages aren't buying homes, they are living with their parents or renting.  The only people who are buying homes are the ones making six figure incomes with help from their parents for a downpayment.  Or they are already in the market and have equity built up.  

 

2% on a million-dollar mortgage is easily affordable if both buyers are making six figures.  If they have a mortgage helper even better.  At the end of the day, the people with money and equity will be buying homes in Vancouver, and the people without money and low incomes will be renting or moving out to the suburbs, Abbotsford, Chilliwack, etc.

 

It's up to the municipalities to come up with ideas to get more inventory out there in the city core.  Rezoning has to be a priority now to get inventory levels up substantially...

[Warhippy]

14 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

People with low wages aren't buying homes, they are living with their parents or renting.  The only people who are buying homes are the ones making six figure incomes with help from their parents for a downpayment.  Or they are already in the market and have equity built up.  

 

2% on a million-dollar mortgage is easily affordable if both buyers are making six figures.  If they have a mortgage helper even better.  At the end of the day, the people with money and equity will be buying homes in Vancouver, and the people without money and low incomes will be renting or moving out to the suburbs, Abbotsford, Chilliwack, etc.

 

It's up to the municipalities to come up with ideas to get more inventory out there in the city core.  Rezoning has to be a priority now to get inventory levels up substantially...

Corporate ownership.  Look it up.  it's insane honestly.  The cries of realtors double dipping is nothing compared to corproate owned and backed construction firms intentionally buying up large swaths of available housing/new or established and then either renting them out at above market rates or tearing them down and rebuilding them and then selling them to themselves to charge even more.

 

Look at someone like the Basran group in kelowna.

 

Bought up a bunch of homes in Winfield.  Charged insane amounts.  Then tore them down, built their own series fo row homes.  Bought them on the market pre-sale and are now charging more than is the established norm and will sell them all for a nice profit with the inflated housing prices then do it all over again.

[Elias Pettersson]

9 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Corporate ownership.  Look it up.  it's insane honestly.  The cries of realtors double dipping is nothing compared to corproate owned and backed construction firms intentionally buying up large swaths of available housing/new or established and then either renting them out at above market rates or tearing them down and rebuilding them and then selling them to themselves to charge even more.

 

Look at someone like the Basran group in kelowna.

 

Bought up a bunch of homes in Winfield.  Charged insane amounts.  Then tore them down, built their own series fo row homes.  Bought them on the market pre-sale and are now charging more than is the established norm and will sell them all for a nice profit with the inflated housing prices then do it all over again.

Developers own a majority of the vacant land in Vancouver.  Realtors double dipping is nothing new.  Most of the realtors I know are multi-millionaires with large real estate portfolios.

 

Basran group are just one of many, many corporate entities that hold vast amounts of residential and commercial real estate in Vancouver.  Our very own Aquilini family controls alot of real estate around the city as well.  Most of downtown Vancouver is owned by pension funds, insurance companies and real estate corporations.  Reason why is real estate is generally a safe investment with good cash flows, so makes a great investment for these large entities.

 

Governments also own a huge chunk of land, so they can control that portion, rezone it and get it out to the people at affordable prices.  Problem is the governments are just as greedy as the developers.  Approximately 25% of all of the net profits from a condo development go back to the municipalities in the form of development fees.  Hence the reason why developers have to constantly bump up the prices of condos.  Here is a breakdown of what the government gets kicked back to them from a condo development...

 

CMHC confirms government costs raise new home prices - Real Estate | Business in Vancouver (biv.com)

 

Verifying what home builders have been saying for years, a new report from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) confirms that government costs and fees add tens of thousands of dollars to the price of a new home.

 

The City of Vancouver had the highest cost per-square-foot on low-rise and high-rise strata condo buildings of all cities studied, at $143 per square foot, owing entirely to density payments.

In Vancouver, the average of 9.3 charges per new multi-family development account for 7 per cent to 20 per cent of construction costs, with new condominiums bearing the higher percentage.

In comparison, a typical developer’s profit on a new condo project is estimated at between 10 per cent to 15 per cent on a development pro-forma statement, according to CMHC.

Previous private-sector studies done by the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade and Toronto’s Building Industry and Land Development Association estimated that government costs accounted, on average, for 21 per cent of the price of a new detached house and 26 per cent of the price of a new condominium.

Based on average current new home prices and CMHC’s estimates, government costs would add approximately $180,000 to a price of a typical new condo in Vancouver.

[ronthecivil]

22 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Corporate ownership.  Look it up.  it's insane honestly.  The cries of realtors double dipping is nothing compared to corproate owned and backed construction firms intentionally buying up large swaths of available housing/new or established and then either renting them out at above market rates or tearing them down and rebuilding them and then selling them to themselves to charge even more.

 

Look at someone like the Basran group in kelowna.

 

Bought up a bunch of homes in Winfield.  Charged insane amounts.  Then tore them down, built their own series fo row homes.  Bought them on the market pre-sale and are now charging more than is the established norm and will sell them all for a nice profit with the inflated housing prices then do it all over again.

I understand your concerns about this, but if were going to have more housing, there's going to be more UP and out. Like noted in examples I gave above, the Broadway plan is up, Laughead is up, the stuff across North Road is up, and only the new community in south Mallairdville which was the old transfer station is new (as some would call it sprawl).

 

So to build up, you need the kind of deep pockets that can afford to build rowhouses, townhouses, apartments, and towers.

 

The government shouldn't be in the business of building these things. (They can however buy them and offer it out as rentals if they want. Like when the property market tanks and people end up defaulting on their taxes and you get property that way, just as Vancouver used to do as an exampled).

[Warhippy]

49 minutes ago, ronthecivil said:

The government shouldn't be in the business of building these things. (They can however buy them and offer it out as rentals if they want. Like when the property market tanks and people end up defaulting on their taxes and you get property that way, just as Vancouver used to do as an exampled).

I agree with this.

 

The issue is, and it is a fundamental issue in this; is that allowing corporations to build, then buy then flip and buy to build and buy housing is essentially saying housing is little more than a tool of asset building or income generation.  You essentially take housing out of the hands of the people and put it in the hands of a corporate line item for the sheer use of profit.

 

This is the part of unfettered capitalism people neglect to understand is genuinely a bad thing.  because when a company or faceless entity starts buying all the housing and dictates the prices, the next company can do the same and claim they have a nice area or building and charge more; thus setting the market price.  which is what we are seeing.

 

When you allow an entity that exists solely for the purpose of generating income and value to the shareholders to dictate the price of housing.  every quarter HAS to be better meaning prices HAVE to increase meaning that people get priced out of homes and markets.  Eventually and inevitably housing at the most basic level becomes unaffordable for essentially everyone and homelessness increases.

 

For reference.

 

Russian style housing provided by the sate:  Free ish

 

 

 

Lexington of Carteret NJ, 888 sq feet $1950 USD a month.

 

 

Aside from modern looks and amenities, these are not entirely different styles of housing but the average russian built social housing complex was around 60-65 sq meters or 600+ sq feet and was essentially free ish.  This is 250+ sq feet more and is more than 45% of the average monthly income of this area of NJ.

 

NJ is just an example of course, I can do the same with any broadstreet property location in BC.  It is essentially insane that we are allowing corporations to build tenement style row homes and charge so much for them, thus dictating the price of the entire market.  In penticton; a broadstreet 1 bedroom is over 55% of a persons average monthly income BEFORE utilities are paid

Edited May 12, 2023 by Warhippy

[Gurn]

Time to revisit 'homesteading'.

Lots of government land, and we are the government, so why not give us some land?

ohh- can't do that or a very significant revenue stream for rich folk, and  for government would dry up.

[chon derry]

18 minutes ago, Gurn said:

Time to revisit 'homesteading'.

Lots of government land, and we are the government, so why not give us some land?

ohh- can't do that or a very significant revenue stream for rich folk, and  for government would dry up.

One way or another you’d be breaking some gun law or DFO area closure or a provincial camp fire ban. Break a law or starve. There is a subsistence law in Canada stating any citizens lack of ability to obtain food because of financial failure can   fish /shoot/trap game   

[Gurn]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/average-canadian-house-price-rose-to-716-000-in-april-up-by-100k-since-january/ar-AA1bd3Dc?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=cf4a889d201e4e5e96b9b54425632341&ei=10

"

After plunging due to interest rate hikes throughout last year, the average price of a Canadian resale home has now increased for four months in a row, new numbers showed Monday.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday that the average selling price of a home that sold on its MLS system in April went for $716,000. That's the fourth monthly increase in a row, and it marks a collective increase of more than $100,000 since the start of the year.

After peaking at just over $816,000 in February 2022 — right before the Bank of Canada began its aggressive campaign of rate hikes — Canada's housing market went ice cold for much of last year, as drastically higher mortgage rates made it more expensive to finance the purchase of a home.

Average prices bottomed out a few months later, at just under $630,000 in July.

 

But after moving essentially sideways until the start of 2023, the market has seemingly resumed its upward momentum ever since.

How house prices have changed in Canada's major cities

Much of the rebound stems from an uptick in sales in the Greater Toronto Area and B.C.'s Lower Mainland, two parts of the country that saw both the biggest gains during the early days of COVID-19, and also the largest drawdown once rates went up.

If numbers from those two markets are stripped out, the national average price drops by more than $144,000, to an average house price of $572,000 in places that are not Toronto or Vancouver.

CREA, which represents more than 100,000 realtors across the country, says the number of homes that sold during the month increased by 11 per cent from March's level, but it's still almost 20 per cent below what it was during the feverish market of this time last year.

"The snapback in sales, the firming in prices, and the bounce in starts in April all suggest that the housing market has found a floor," Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter said.

 

[Elias Pettersson]

What is the reason for the lack of inventory in the market and the consequential price increases that are making this city even more unaffordable?

 

It's actually quite simple to figure out.  It all has to do with interest rates.  Currently, around 56% of all homeowners have a mortgage on their principal residence.  Out of that 56%, approximately 71% of those people have a fixed rate mortgage.  Which was obtained well before the rate increases of the last 18 months.  These people are locked into rates that are well under 3%.  2% or lower for some.  So, they are locked in at low rates and are not affected by this current rate environment.  So, what does this have to do with low inventory?

 

Well, if you want to move you would need to sell your place, which means you would need to break that mortgage and get an even bigger mortgage at a much higher rate.  And the people who tend to move the most, the younger people, are the ones who are affected the most as they can't really afford to move and lose that interest rate.  So, people are holding tight for now and not selling at this time.  Which is one of the major causes for the 20+ year low in real estate inventory.

 

My buddy told me this theory and it seems to make alot of sense.  It's not the only reason for the lack of inventory, but it is one of the bigger ones.  This should continue for awhile until these mortgages come due for renewal, which should be in the next couple of years.  In the meantime, expect prices to keep going up this year.  Next year might be even worse.  

 

[Junkyard Dog]

10 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

What is the reason for the lack of inventory in the market and the consequential price increases that are making this city even more unaffordable?

 

It's actually quite simple to figure out.  It all has to do with interest rates.  Currently, around 56% of all homeowners have a mortgage on their principal residence.  Out of that 56%, approximately 71% of those people have a fixed rate mortgage.  Which was obtained well before the rate increases of the last 18 months.  These people are locked into rates that are well under 3%.  2% or lower for some.  So, they are locked in at low rates and are not affected by this current rate environment.  So, what does this have to do with low inventory?

 

Well, if you want to move you would need to sell your place, which means you would need to break that mortgage and get an even bigger mortgage at a much higher rate.  And the people who tend to move the most, the younger people, are the ones who are affected the most as they can't really afford to move and lose that interest rate.  So, people are holding tight for now and not selling at this time.  Which is one of the major causes for the 20+ year low in real estate inventory.

 

My buddy told me this theory and it seems to make alot of sense.  It's not the only reason for the lack of inventory, but it is one of the bigger ones.  This should continue for awhile until these mortgages come due for renewal, which should be in the next couple of years.  In the meantime, expect prices to keep going up this year.  Next year might be even worse.  

 

I live at home still at 27 and pretty much am able to for the next while or so as I finish school. Even after 1st year of school is done I’ll probably be making 5-6k(working OT) a cheque with little commitments and lowish rent. Good time to start saving for a place. 
 

Hopefully in 5ish years the housing market can begin to settle down a bit. 
 

I work in a camp setting too so 2/3rds of the time I have everything paid for. 
 

What’s in extremely high demand atm are Ironworkers in BC. Local 97 screaming for guys and you’re never out of work. They bring guys from the east coast to work here. The projects coming up soon will create even more. Gonna be a good next 10-15 years. I recommend if anyone knows anybody who wants a career path or something for themselves.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Junkyard Dog

[Warhippy]

5 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

I live at home still at 27 and pretty much am able to for the next while or so as I finish school. Even after 1st year of school is done I’ll probably be making 5-6k(working OT) a cheque with little commitments and lowish rent. Good time to start saving for a place. 
 

Hopefully in 5ish years the housing market can begin to settle down a bit. 
 

I work in a camp setting too so 2/3rds of the time I have everything paid for. 
 

What’s in extremely high demand atm are Ironworkers in BC. Local 97 screaming for guys and you’re never out of work. They bring guys from the east coast to work here. The projects coming up soon will create even more. Gonna be a good next 10-15 years. I recommend if anyone knows anybody who wants a career path or something for themselves.

When you say ironworker.

 

You mean rodbusting or structural and flange?

[Russ]

On 5/12/2023 at 12:56 PM, Gurn said:

Time to revisit 'homesteading'.

Lots of government land, and we are the government, so why not give us some land?

ohh- can't do that or a very significant revenue stream for rich folk, and  for government would dry up.

Now you're just waiting for the government to find even more ways to tax us.  If theres a will theres a way the government will get a cut unfortunately lol.

[Russ]

9 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

I live at home still at 27 and pretty much am able to for the next while or so as I finish school. Even after 1st year of school is done I’ll probably be making 5-6k(working OT) a cheque with little commitments and lowish rent. Good time to start saving for a place. 
 

Hopefully in 5ish years the housing market can begin to settle down a bit. 
 

I work in a camp setting too so 2/3rds of the time I have everything paid for. 
 

What’s in extremely high demand atm are Ironworkers in BC. Local 97 screaming for guys and you’re never out of work. They bring guys from the east coast to work here. The projects coming up soon will create even more. Gonna be a good next 10-15 years. I recommend if anyone knows anybody who wants a career path or something for themselves.

Lots of jobs in trades. I knew some ironworkers in the past and they were great guys.

[taxi]

13 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

What is the reason for the lack of inventory in the market and the consequential price increases that are making this city even more unaffordable?

 

It's actually quite simple to figure out.  It all has to do with interest rates.  Currently, around 56% of all homeowners have a mortgage on their principal residence.  Out of that 56%, approximately 71% of those people have a fixed rate mortgage.  Which was obtained well before the rate increases of the last 18 months.  These people are locked into rates that are well under 3%.  2% or lower for some.  So, they are locked in at low rates and are not affected by this current rate environment.  So, what does this have to do with low inventory?

 

Well, if you want to move you would need to sell your place, which means you would need to break that mortgage and get an even bigger mortgage at a much higher rate.  And the people who tend to move the most, the younger people, are the ones who are affected the most as they can't really afford to move and lose that interest rate.  So, people are holding tight for now and not selling at this time.  Which is one of the major causes for the 20+ year low in real estate inventory.

 

My buddy told me this theory and it seems to make alot of sense.  It's not the only reason for the lack of inventory, but it is one of the bigger ones.  This should continue for awhile until these mortgages come due for renewal, which should be in the next couple of years.  In the meantime, expect prices to keep going up this year.  Next year might be even worse.  

 

The problem with that theory, is that young people tend to move from smaller to larger places, which actually decreases inventory. You only get a net increase in inventory when people downsize, move to a rental, or leave the housing market.

 

There's so little inventory, because we simply don't have enough housing. A million be Canadians this year, and nowhere near enough new housing units.

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, taxi said:

The problem with that theory, is that young people tend to move from smaller to larger places, which actually decreases inventory. You only get a net increase in inventory when people downsize, move to a rental, or leave the housing market.

 

There's so little inventory, because we simply don't have enough housing. A million be Canadians this year, and nowhere near enough new housing units.

That’s not true. If someone  is moving from a one bedroom home to a townhouse, then that one bedroom home would be put on the market, which increases the inventory in that price range. 
 

The biggest issue with inventory right now is finding homes for first time home buyers. Having a bunch of one bedroom and two bedroom condos come onto the market would definitely help the inventory issue. As well, these would be ready to move in condos, versus a developer putting a high rise up for presale and having to wait 4 years to move in. 
 

Inventory levels are down all across North America, it’s not just a Vancouver thing, so there is legitimacy to this theory as interest rates have risen dramatically all across North America over the last 2 years. 
 

The quickest way to increase inventory levels is for people to put their places up for sale. Waiting for developers to construct a high rise or waiting for the government to rezone some land takes years to accomplish the same objective. 

[taxi]

54 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

That’s not true. If someone  is moving from a one bedroom home to a townhouse, then that one bedroom home would be put on the market, which increases the inventory in that price range. 
 

The biggest issue with inventory right now is finding homes for first time home buyers. Having a bunch of one bedroom and two bedroom condos come onto the market would definitely help the inventory issue. As well, these would be ready to move in condos, versus a developer putting a high rise up for presale and having to wait 4 years to move in. 
 

Inventory levels are down all across North America, it’s not just a Vancouver thing, so there is legitimacy to this theory as interest rates have risen dramatically all across North America over the last 2 years. 
 

The quickest way to increase inventory levels is for people to put their places up for sale. Waiting for developers to construct a high rise or waiting for the government to rezone some land takes years to accomplish the same objective. 

Except they are also buying a place...which means a net increase of zero. Also, they may be buying a place with multiple units, which means a net decrease of housing stock.