2016 TDL, Offseason + Expansion (Discussion) LONG READ

[KKnight]

So im not sure if it makes me a bad fan or a Realist, for hoping we slide down the standings. I just feel its inevitable wuth February being a tough schedule. Which then would give us scenarios we would have to address. Id like to get some feedback to see what everybody is thinking going in to TDL, offseason, draft & expansion. 

 

My ideal TDL: 

 

Blues: Miller 

Canucks: Late first 

 

Reasoning: Blues need a goalie, but want Allen to be their guy. Not a lot of other attractive goalies unless you want term and Miller has been playing lights out. Van needs assets. I would aim for Makar, Andersson or Glass with this pick. 

 

Montreal: Burrows

Van: Washington 2nd. (Eller trade)

 

Reasoning: Montreal adds a reliable, hard nosed playoff performer who is having a bounce back season. We add more assets - the second is basically a 3rd. 

 

Capitals: Hansen + 3rd round pick (2016)

Van: First round pick (2016)

 

Reasoning: I looked at other teams like the Wild, Ducks. Although it made sense from a hockey stand point, it didnt make sense from a expansion stand point. Caps only have 6 forwards who they surely have to protect going in to next year. Plus they might lose Oshie. So they get Hansen in his prime at 2.5 for the next 2 years and get to protect Granny. We get their late first this year and give them back a 3rd. 

 

Offseason : 

 

Resign: Horvat  4.2 cap hit over 5 years. 

              Gudbranson - 2.75 cap hit over 2                                         years or extend QO.

              Tryamkin - 2 cap hit over 2 years.

              Rodin - 900 thousand over 1 year

              Gaunce - 850 thousand over 1 yr

 

Draft : 3 firsts, 3 seconds. I dont know enough about the draft to select people id want in later rounds. 

 

i feel we will draft anywhere from 5-7.

(5-7) - I would be happy with any of Middlestadt, Necas, Petersson or Vilardi.

 

(late 1st) - Makar, hes got this Letang shiftiness to his game, definitely has a wow factor. I feel hes better than game film ive seen from Liljegren. 

 

(late 1st) Andersson, Glass or Anderson-Dolan. In that order of whoever is left. 

 

(Our Second) - Anderson-Dolan or if taken Maxime Fortier. I love how Anderson-Dolan competes, very good 2 way player. I like how fast Fortier plays at, shifty. More offensive player, would need to round out his game. 

 

I say we try to trade with Arizona witha package of one of our seconds if not both. 

 

Arizona - Tanev, second + Subban.

Vancouver  - Domi

or if thats not enough.

Arizona - Tanev, Virtanen.+ Subban

Vancouver - Domi, Wood.

 

Reasoning : I dont like letting go of Virtanen, because i feel he can develop in to a very good player, but Domi is too good to pass on. By us selecting a forward again this year in the draft it allows us to kind of take a risk. Arizona needs someone to play with Ekman-Larsson and Subbs can get his shot down there. 

 

If we keep our seconds. 

 1 of Oettinger, Luukkonen or Dipietro could give us another goalie prospect. For the other second i dont know enough to hone in on one specific player. 

 

Expansion. 

 

With us trading Tanev, Hansen. We are able to protect Sbisa & Granny. 

 

Protect: 

Forwards: Sedins, Eriksson, Horvat, Sutter, Baertschi, Granny. 

Defense: Edler, Guddy, Sbisa.

Goalie: Marky. 

 

Unprotected: Dorsett, Gaunce, Rodin, Biega. 

 

If they take Dorsett, i say we resign Skille. If they take Gaunce, we PTO some Centers next training camp & have our prospects compete for the spot.

 

Offseason : 

 

Sign: If Dorsett is taken sign Skille. 

         Sign Boeser to 2 year max rookie contract.

        Sign Experienced Back Up or if Miller is there extend an offer.

       Sign Burrows. 1 year 2.5 cap hit.

 

Next year: 

 

Sedin - Sedin - Eriksson

Domi - Horvat - Baertschi

Granny - Sutter - Rodin or Boeser

Burrows - Gaunce or ? - Dorsett or Skille

ex Rodin, Boeser or Skille.

 

Edler - Stecher

Sbisa- Tryamkin

Hutton - Gudbranson

ex Biega

 

Marky

Miller or ?

 

 

 

              

                                  

[Whale Tail]

I don't know if I have homer glasses on but I feel Tanev should be enough to get Domi. 

 

Gud will want more more than a qualifying offer to extend. 

[saucypass]

Not going to lie, I actually like this. Only problem is I don't know if Miller would want to go back to STL after his last campaign with them. As a Canuck fan I would take the Arizona deal for Domi and Wood. I like both of those players, but I don't know if Arizona would take this deal for sure would unless we overpay. But having Tanev next to OEL and having Subban next to Chychrun should be pretty nice, so I don't think it'd be crazy if Arizona bought what we're selling. 

 

From a Capitals perspective, I would definitely take the Hansen deal. From a Canucks perspective I would try to negotiate it down to a 4th or 5th instead of a 3rd. Or I would at least make the pick conditional as they have strong potential to go deep into the playoffs this year. Upgrading and degrading the picks depending on how far they get. 

 

Other than that, would be great if it all worked out like this. 

[Angry Goose]

piece of .......cake........ZzzZ>.Z>.>.ZZZZZZ

[Shiftynifty]

I actually like this proposal; most of the points stated are realistic. However, there are a few that might not work:

 

1. Miller will not get us a 1st unless we retain salary (even then it might be too much for Miller),

 

2. Tanev + Virtanen + Subban for Domi + Wood is a bit steep for us in my opinion, but close value,

 

3. I don't think Horvat will sign for under 5mil if we are not going for a bridge deal.

[Ossi Vaananen]

Ok, so this is in hindsight? 2016 was used more than once. 

[Mackcanuck]

It is a pretty darn good proposal cap wise

 

Miller for STL 1st - Miller $6M cap hit, STL projected Deadline Cap space is $7M 

 

Burrows for MTL (WSH)2nd - Burrows $4.5 cap hit, MTL projected Deadline Cap space is $464K, would have to retain some salary and take back some salary

 

Hansen+3rd for WSH 1st - Hansen $2.5M cap hit, WSH projected Deadline Cap space is $4.2M

 

 

[Putgolzin]

I like it too.

I don't think we'd get a 1st for Hansen and the 3rd, but what do I know...

I like the idea of having had this season to prove we can play hockey, but that we should still put more eggs in the futures basket than in the playoffs basket. Benning is smart enough to know that we have to keep rebuilding/retooling whatever.

So realistically we're not going to make this many moves, but if we made half of them and all of a sudden had an extra couple of picks and traded a D for a quality Top6 forward, we would be in really good shape moving forward.

[Hairy Kneel]

Well thought out, even the drat picks, thanks for that.

I generally agree with each option. Lot of factors in each deal, some tough losses on our part but overall very indicative of where we are, especially in a expansion year.

[KKnight]

4 hours ago, suitup said:

Not going to lie, I actually like this. Only problem is I don't know if Miller would want to go back to STL after his last campaign with them. As a Canuck fan I would take the Arizona deal for Domi and Wood. I like both of those players, but I don't know if Arizona would take this deal for sure would unless we overpay. But having Tanev next to OEL and having Subban next to Chychrun should be pretty nice, so I don't think it'd be crazy if Arizona bought what we're selling. 

 

From a Capitals perspective, I would definitely take the Hansen deal. From a Canucks perspective I would try to negotiate it down to a 4th or 5th instead of a 3rd. Or I would at least make the pick conditional as they have strong potential to go deep into the playoffs this year. Upgrading and degrading the picks depending on how far they get. 

 

Other than that, would be great if it all worked out like this. 

Only reason i put St Louis instead of a place like Dallas is because they would surely want us to take a goalie back, along with the first. 

[KKnight]

43 minutes ago, Hairy Kneel said:

Well thought out, even the drat picks, thanks for that.

I generally agree with each option. Lot of factors in each deal, some tough losses on our part but overall very indicative of where we are, especially in a expansion year.

Couldnt sleep, had to think of every scenario. Thanks for reading. 

[KKnight]

3 hours ago, Shiftynifty said:

I actually like this proposal; most of the points stated are realistic. However, there are a few that might not work:

 

1. Miller will not get us a 1st unless we retain salary (even then it might be too much for Miller),

 

2. Tanev + Virtanen + Subban for Domi + Wood is a bit steep for us in my opinion, but close value,

 

3. I don't think Horvat will sign for under 5mil if we are not going for a bridge deal.

My reason for Horvat signing at that number is a player like Rakell signed for 3.8 over 6. So were knocking a year off and paying him 400k more per year, i would still try and get that cap hit over 6. 

 

The Arizona trade is steep, but with us getting a forward in the upper echelon of the draft it allows us to take a risk and for me Domi is that risk. Wood is not a slouch either. 

[Sygvard]

Really nicely done overall. There are individual parts that may be wishful thinking (Gud is going to get paid, one way or another) but it is hardly worth nitpicking when it is your ideal offseason. Overall I just like the amount of effort and thought that went into this. 

 

Way to keep the overall quality of the boards high Knight. 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

Good proposal a top 9 of:

 

Sedin - Sedin - Eriksson

Domi - Horvat - Baertschi

Granny - Sutter - Rodin/Boeser

 

Looks really sexy.

 

The two things I don't think happen. 

I don't think Miller goes to STL. They tried that 3 years ago and it didn't work out, i doubt they make the same mistake twice.

 

Cap's can't protect hansen.  Even if they let Oshie walk they still have

Ovi, Backstrom, Johansson, Kuznetsov, Burakovsky, Wilson, Ellers to protect and even then it still leaves Williams. I do think the caps do try and resign Oshie and them protect him over Ellers.

[Shekky]

Would be nice if Benning would do this much trading to make some changes that are desperately needed but realistically he doesn't makes those trades until Summer when contracts expire. Signing wise they all look like wishful thinking Horvat is going to definately be in the 5 mil range. Hopefully he wants to play in Vancouver bad enough that he would be willing to take a paycut. Going forward all the trades look great but you may want to look at the cap space for each team first and compare signings with other teams to get the right signing prices. Gudbranson is going to take 3.5 to 4.5 mil to sign depending on term.

[KKnight]

2 minutes ago, Shekky said:

Would be nice if Benning would do this much trading to make some changes that are desperately needed but realistically he doesn't makes those trades until Summer when contracts expire. Signing wise they all look like wishful thinking Horvat is going to definately be in the 5 mil range. Hopefully he wants to play in Vancouver bad enough that he would be willing to take a paycut. Going forward all the trades look great but you may want to look at the cap space for each team first and compare signings with other teams to get the right signing prices. Gudbranson is going to take 3.5 to 4.5 mil to sign depending on term.

What has Gudbranson done to demand that kind of cheddar? I think he will be good on our team, but he hasnt exactly been a shining example of greatness thus far. Could be 3 mill over 2

 

Rakell makes 3.8 over 6 and has 20 goals - 29 points. I figure Horvat is going to get payed more, but by how much? 4.5 maybe over 6. 

[JM_]

I can't see STL giving up more picks for Miller a 2nd time around. Maybe LA if Budaj goes down. 

 

Brace yourselves folks for JB to stand pat at the TDL if we're still in the hunt for a wildcard. This team seems to really like playing together so I doubt anyone will waive. 

[JM_]

1 hour ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Good proposal a top 9 of:

 

Sedin - Sedin - Eriksson

Domi - Horvat - Baertschi

Granny - Sutter - Rodin/Boeser

 

Looks really sexy.

 

The two things I don't think happen. 

I don't think Miller goes to STL. They tried that 3 years ago and it didn't work out, i doubt they make the same mistake twice.

 

Cap's can't protect hansen.  Even if they let Oshie walk they still have

Ovi, Backstrom, Johansson, Kuznetsov, Burakovsky, Wilson, Ellers to protect and even then it still leaves Williams. I do think the caps do try and resign Oshie and them protect him over Ellers.

 

Careful with that top line suggestion.... JR has a book on why Loui 'isn't a good fit' 

 

It would be nice to get that 2nd line LW in a trade tho... the free agent pool next season isn't great in that regard (http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/left-wing/ufa/)

 

 

 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

40 minutes ago, KKnight said:

What has Gudbranson done to demand that kind of cheddar? I think he will be good on our team, but he hasnt exactly been a shining example of greatness thus far. Could be 3 mill over 2

Guddy currently makes 3.5, he's not going to take a cut because he had an injured season.  Sbisa was signed at 3.6 having proved less at the time of the signing.  Guddy will be commanding a pay raised based on what he's expecting to grow into.  If he's willing to take a 1 year deal them maybe he will accept what he's currently making but not a chance he takes a cut.  Anything over a one year deal 4+.

 

40 minutes ago, KKnight said:

Rakell makes 3.8 over 6 and has 20 goals - 29 points. I figure Horvat is going to get payed more, but by how much? 4.5 maybe over 6. 

Rackell was signed this year. Prior to signing the contract Rackell's career high was 43 points (he did this as a 22 year old).  Horvat is on pace to be in the 50 point range this year (which he's doing as a 21 year old playing with higher D-zone starts), so he will be way higher than rackell

 

Rackell had a break out season this year but that's after the contract was signed.  Horvat's having a break out season before the contract.

 

Better comparables would be players in his same age range.

 

Monahan 6.375

Barkov 5.9

MacKinnon 6.3

Forsberg 6.0

 

You could throw in a comparable of

Scheifele 6.125. 

 

Prior to signing his contract he had 3 years in the NHL where he put up 34 points, then 49 points and then 61 points.   

Horvat entered the NHL a year younger than Scheifele and has put up 29 points, then 41 points and now is on pace for 52 points.

 

You can make a case that Horvat doesn’t deserve to be in the 6 range but he’s clearly in the 5+ range,

[Mr.53]

Horvat will be making more than that if he signs long term. Gudbranson at 2.75 is also too low. You'd be telling him to take a pay cut. Generally pay cuts don't happen. I say lock

Horvat up to start 8 years 6 mill. (Give the man his worth. The contract will be more than fair when he's our best player for years. (btw, he kind of already is)

Gudbranson would also get at least 3.5, probably close to 4 or 4.5.)

 

But interesting. I have always been a big Max Domi fan. He's a beast and has a lot of grit, character, and spark to his game. He just gets his team and the fans excited, and he's in Arizona. In a market like Vancovuer, Domi not could be a star, would be a star. He oozes leadership, but in a different way from Horvat. They would bounce off together so well and are already friends from their dominance in London.