[Discussion] Value of our 2021 1st

[J.I.A.H.N]

So, as we advance up the ladder of respectability, and enter the playoffs our 1st will not be so potent, with less of a chance of producing an elite player...….

Further to that, any pick we acquire via the draft 2 years from now, will most likely take another 2 years before the player is ready....so 4 to 5 years away.

 

My question, is would you trade that 2021st along with another asset for a later 1st or a needed prospect...….

 

An example would be...……….Baertschi 50% + 2021 1st to Pittsburgh for a 2019 1st (21st OA)

 

or...……………………………….Baertschi 50% + 2021 1st to Ottawa for their 2019 2nd(32st) + 2019 2nd (44th)

 

IMO, we are just advancing our 2021 pick to 2019, with not much of a change in drafted prospect for the trading team.

 

Now, don't get hooked on those examples, because there are many more that are more likely a hell of a lot better...….

 

But the question is...…..would you move our 2021 1st....hoping in 2 years that our regular season positions 16th tor 20th area

 

...maybe it goes with a short term Cap Dump

 

Just trying to move things around a little.

 

 

Edited May 25, 2019 by janisahockeynut

[Generational.EP40]

The only way it would make sense is if we know for sure we’re going to land a Karlsson type player in FA. So you trade the future 1st now before July.1 when it’s value is highest and considered a lottery pick in the eyes of other teams. You get the best return possible to help the team now (whether it be a quality young NHL ready youngster or a prime aged player), and then you add that Karlsson tier player in Free Agency and you’re team is a ready to play for the playoffs. 

 

That’s how you do it. And you leave the team that has your pick leaving it’s jaw hanging in disgust after the premium value they give you for what is now a mid-late round projected 1st 

[J.I.A.H.N]

Here is one I think could go...……..

 

David Clarkson + 2019 1st (17 OA) for 2021 1st unprotected...…….

 

Vegas needs to clear cap before July 1st, as they are already over Cap and need to sign 4 more players, 1 of which is Willian Karlsson (7 Million ish),

so they will be well over the 10% excess cap restrictions, they are allowed to be over during the summer.

 

To me, that is a lateral transaction, that gets us a second mid first pick 2 years early...…...I don't see the harm and Vegas would be happy with that solution, IMO

 

They still need to get rid of additional cap after that, so...……..they have problems, and a Clarkson buy out doesn't get them far enough...…..

[qwijibo]

I’m not sure there’s a GM in the league that is trading away a 1st for a return that is 3 years away (plus development time). Most gm’s don’t have that sort of long term shelf life. 

[mpt]

No because we will still be picking in the top 10

[cowboy644]

I'm not sure who they should trade for specifically but it has to be a young skilled forward that can be put in the lineup now preferably.A defenseman secondly.This team can not continue to draft players that are 2 to 3 years down the road away from playing.They need to set a skilled roster soon.

[JM_]

8 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

Here is one I think could go...……..

 

David Clarkson + 2019 1st (17 OA) for 2021 1st unprotected...…….

 

Vegas needs to clear cap before July 1st, as they are already over Cap and need to sign 4 more players, 1 of which is Willian Karlsson (7 Million ish),

so they will be well over the 10% excess cap restrictions, they are allowed to be over during the summer.

 

To me, that is a lateral transaction, that gets us a second mid first pick 2 years early...…...I don't see the harm and Vegas would be happy with that solution, IMO

 

They still need to get rid of additional cap after that, so...……..they have problems, and a Clarkson buy out doesn't get them far enough...…..

Clarkson isn't really a problem for them tho, he's on LTIR so I don't see Vegas having a pain point to move off their 1st this year, they actually don't have a particularly exciting prospect pool and need to build up their talent too. 

 

McPhee might actually get himself more picks in the 1st depending on where he trades William Karlsson and Colin Miller to. 

[mll]

4 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Clarkson isn't really a problem for them tho, he's on LTIR so I don't see Vegas having a pain point to move off their 1st this year, they actually don't have a particularly exciting prospect pool and need to build up their talent too. 

 

McPhee might actually get himself more picks in the 1st depending on where he trades William Karlsson and Colin Miller to. 

William Karlsson is normally not on the block.   Cody Eakin is though.

 

Clarkson's contract is insured - after his bonus payment it's only 200K.  Ottawa would take him.

[Rob_Zepp]

9 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

So, as we advance up the ladder of respectability, and enter the playoffs our 1st will not be so potent, with less of a chance of producing an elite player...….

Brock Boeser says hi.........

 

Jan, each draft is different - for example, this year after the first three or four picks, it is pretty flat until the mid 20's by some scouts' opinions.   There are far too many examples of truly elite players coming from playoff team slots to make such a blanket statement unless you are comparing the top one or two picks in a given draft as your non-playoff benchmark.    

 

In today's NHL, a first round and even a second round pick are far more valuable then they were even three or four years ago given the trend in game with use of CAP (both in terms of "weaponizing" and leveraging for longer windows of competitiveness for a given core) and the gradual overall decrease in average age of players.   That is why I think unless you are in a "win now" and have a legitimate shot at a Cup (truly a top five or so team top to bottom) with a move that involves you surrendering a first round pick, you have to stop yourself and not make that move.   

[JM_]

3 minutes ago, mll said:

William Karlsson is normally not on the block.   Cody Eakin is though.

 

Clarkson's contract is insured - after his bonus payment it's only 200K.  Ottawa would take him.

I can't see how they keep him tho with their cap situation, and he's also not the 40 goal guy from his 1st year either.  I think he'd bring more in return than Eakin too. 

 

I'm sure Ottawa would take Clarkson for even a mid-round pick, just saying that its not worth a 1st to dump him. 

[Gurn]

24 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

McPhee might actually get himself more picks in the 1st depending on where he trades William Karlsson and Colin Miller to. 

McPhee moved upstairs, iirc it's Kelly McCrimmon who gets to do the trades now.

[J.I.A.H.N]

16 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Brock Boeser says hi.........

 

Jan, each draft is different - for example, this year after the first three or four picks, it is pretty flat until the mid 20's by some scouts' opinions.   There are far too many examples of truly elite players coming from playoff team slots to make such a blanket statement unless you are comparing the top one or two picks in a given draft as your non-playoff benchmark.    

 

In today's NHL, a first round and even a second round pick are far more valuable then they were even three or four years ago given the trend in game with use of CAP (both in terms of "weaponizing" and leveraging for longer windows of competitiveness for a given core) and the gradual overall decrease in average age of players.   That is why I think unless you are in a "win now" and have a legitimate shot at a Cup (truly a top five or so team top to bottom) with a move that involves you surrendering a first round pick, you have to stop yourself and not make that move.   

I completely agree with you Rob, my point is more that we move up our selection 2 years, rather than wait, which is more in line with where our young core will be in 4 years.....

 

I totally agree with how drafting has advanced in such a short time, and now, I believe there are less misses the closer to the top, which actually means that the Brocks are recognized earlier and taken earlier...….

 

That is not to say that "good" scouting teams, can not find a diamond I the late first, and beyond. 

 

Again my suggestion and question, is more about moving up 2 years with a pick

[BPA]

Keep all 1st round picks.  You don't ever want to be in the situation where Ottawa was.  

 

Everyone wants a quick fix.  I would only trade a 1st to get elite talent for that final push.

[mll]

52 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I can't see how they keep him tho with their cap situation, and he's also not the 40 goal guy from his 1st year either.  I think he'd bring more in return than Eakin too. 

 

I'm sure Ottawa would take Clarkson for even a mid-round pick, just saying that its not worth a 1st to dump him. 

They've done the whole season without Haula - although they could keep him over Karlsson.  

Haula, Eakin, Miller is close to 10.5M.  

 

I think McCrimmon will look to have the best team possible rather than look for return value.

 

Edited May 25, 2019 by mll

[J.I.A.H.N]

36 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Clarkson isn't really a problem for them tho, he's on LTIR so I don't see Vegas having a pain point to move off their 1st this year, they actually don't have a particularly exciting prospect pool and need to build up their talent too. 

 

McPhee might actually get himself more picks in the 1st depending on where he trades William Karlsson and Colin Miller to. 

Morning Jim 

I think you are totally missing what Vegas Vegas's problems

Vegas has 2 problems.....July 1st and October 1st (Start  of Season)

 

#1. July 1st when the new year starts, they can only be 10% above the League Cap of 83 Million

and 

#2. Oct 1st, when they have to be down to that 83 Million cap, with no LTIR hidden. (So including LTIR)

 

Today, Cap Friendly says that Vegas is over the Cap already (83,125,000) and have only 19 players signed

2 of which are William Karlsson, who should bring in north of 7 M, and Miller, who probably will traded, but that still means the other 3 even at League Minimum

should be another 2.4 some where this summer. (that is 83,125,000 + W. Karlsson + 3 lesser = approx. 94 Million) which will be over both #1 + #2.

 

So they will not meet #1 in the summer, and will not meet #2 even if the did not sign Karlsson and 3 lesser on Oct. 1st. They could do some hocky pocky, and still will not get under.....

 

Getting rid of Clarkson only gets rid of half their problem, Miller is gone IMO, and so are some of their assets they have accumulated.....George McPhee does it again!

 

So, Taking on Clarkson for the year, and will help....it is either us or someone else.....why not us?

[J.I.A.H.N]

13 minutes ago, BPA said:

Keep all 1st round picks.  You don't ever want to be in the situation where Ottawa was.  

 

Everyone wants a quick fix.  I would only trade a 1st to get elite talent for that final push.

Moving a 2021 at for a 2019 first is a lateral transaction and has no net loose to the organization

 

But I guess to your second point, I guess it matters if you expect the Canucks to be have a top 3 pick in 2 years

 

There is always risk...…...

[J.I.A.H.N]

6 minutes ago, mll said:

They've done the whole season without Haula - although they could keep him over Karlsson.  

Haula, Eakin, Miller is close to 10.5M.  

 

I don't think McCrimmon will look for return value but rather how to have the best team possible.

 

But they will still have the problem of being over cap on October 1st, and be short players to reach their 23 player requirement

 

even if they do exactly that...…….Clarkson is the problem, plus they have a very reduced amount of teams to trade with, as 2/3's of the league

 

are in either the same boat, or close...……...

 

It will be interesting!

[JM_]

44 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

Morning Jim 

I think you are totally missing what Vegas Vegas's problems

Vegas has 2 problems.....July 1st and October 1st (Start  of Season)

 

#1. July 1st when the new year starts, they can only be 10% above the League Cap of 83 Million

and 

#2. Oct 1st, when they have to be down to that 83 Million cap, with no LTIR hidden. (So including LTIR)

 

Today, Cap Friendly says that Vegas is over the Cap already (83,125,000) and have only 19 players signed

2 of which are William Karlsson, who should bring in north of 7 M, and Miller, who probably will traded, but that still means the other 3 even at League Minimum

should be another 2.4 some where this summer. (that is 83,125,000 + W. Karlsson + 3 lesser = approx. 94 Million) which will be over both #1 + #2.

 

So they will not meet #1 in the summer, and will not meet #2 even if the did not sign Karlsson and 3 lesser on Oct. 1st. They could do some hocky pocky, and still will not get under.....

 

Getting rid of Clarkson only gets rid of half their problem, Miller is gone IMO, and so are some of their assets they have accumulated.....George McPhee does it again!

 

So, Taking on Clarkson for the year, and will help....it is either us or someone else.....why not us?

hey Jan

 

I'm not disagreeing that jettisoning Clarkson is a help, just not worth a pick swap to delay picking in the first round by 2 years. I think they could get rid of him with an extra 3rd to Ottawa e.g.

 

I'd like to get Miller here, I just don't want to give up any picks to get him, maybe a Brisebois-level prospect but I suspect many teams can beat us on return there too. 

 

I don't see Karlsson getting that from Vegas, dunno just a feeling but I think he's done in Vegas if they can move him for solid prospect returns. 

 

[mll]

29 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

But they will still have the problem of being over cap on October 1st, and be short players to reach their 23 player requirement

 

even if they do exactly that...…….Clarkson is the problem, plus they have a very reduced amount of teams to trade with, as 2/3's of the league

 

are in either the same boat, or close...……...

 

It will be interesting!

They are two ways to be cap compliant on opening night.  Either go under the cap or above the cap. 

- everyone under including the injured player.  Put him on LTIR and then add players.

- already add his replacement to the roster and exceed the cap up to the LTIR amount. Then put the player on LTIR to get back under.  Detroit has been using this formula.  

 

 

[Bure1010]

The value of a 2021 1st is dependant on who your trading with. Plus A 2020 protected pick might be a little more valuable as they’d get the 2021 anyways if van decided to hold onto the 2020 pick. And if we r looking to trade a 2021 pick I’d like to see one or two good young pieces that can help now as opposed to a low 1 st but not sure there would be any buyers or if somehow the 2021 and 2019 1sts somehow get us byram Kakko or Hughes (which wouldn’t happen). 

Wonder if 2021 first would get us Johnsson and Kapanen and a cap dump not named Zaitsev from Toronto or something along those lines.