Warhippy Posted March 4, 2020 Author Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Of course the US is just printing money, but so is everyone else. What it comes down to is that the USA is the cleanest dirty shirt in the pile.They are the world's reserve currency and they control the printing press. You have to put your money somewhere and everyone else is worse. Well investing is all about visibility and confidence. But the USA will be the last place investors lose confidence in. Sadly Hip, I think the money pump and kicking of the can down the road will continue for sometime. The only thing I see that will bring down this global ponzi scheme is if inflation every gets out of control. Or in other words if central banks every lose control over inflation. When you have to pay +10% on your mountains of debt it's game over,. This rate decrease though. It's predicated on the assumption people will borrow and spend more. But they're at their breaking point already. What happens next? Another decrease? A decade of artificially low rates hyper inflated the personal debt issue. That issue has left people unable to consume more. So my question, is what if it fails? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Warhippy said: This rate decrease though. It's predicated on the assumption people will borrow and spend more. But they're at their breaking point already. What happens next? Another decrease? A decade of artificially low rates hyper inflated the personal debt issue. That issue has left people unable to consume more. So my question, is what if it fails? They will borrow if you let them. Ever been stuffed full and then someone brings out a plate of fudge brownies, and you know if you have one you might pop? Did you refuse it? Or did you chomp one down. That's exactly what is next. It's a ponzi scheme. You keep all the balls in the air as long as you can. Eventually the balls will come crashing down and there will be Hell to pay. The laws of economics deem it to be so. Like with that fudge brownie. They are always able to consume more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted March 4, 2020 Author Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) 34 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: They will borrow if you let them. Ever been stuffed full and then someone brings out a plate of fudge brownies, and you know if you have one you might pop? Did you refuse it? Or did you chomp one down. That's exactly what is next. It's a ponzi scheme. You keep all the balls in the air as long as you can. Eventually the balls will come crashing down and there will be Hell to pay. The laws of economics deem it to be so. Like with that fudge brownie. They are always able to consume more. OK. So what is the cumulative effect of literally tens of if not hundreds of thousands of borrowers defaulting on credit cards and mortgages when they raise the rates again to even 2% Edited March 4, 2020 by Warhippy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Warhippy said: OK. So what is the cumulative effect of literally tens of if not hundreds of thousands of borrowers defaulting on credit cards and mortgages when they raise the rates again to even 2% Then you either restart the printing press or they face the music. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riffraff Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Then you either restart the printing press or they face the music. So 2007-8 all over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, riffraff said: So 2007-8 all over again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riffraff Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, nuckin_futz said: This song makes me too happy for the topic lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shift-4 Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 3 hours ago, nuckin_futz said: Might as well just drop this in here ............ Bank of Canada cuts rates by 50 basis points vs a 25 cut expected Wed 4 Mar 2020 15:00:07 GMT Bank of Canada interest rate decision highlights: The overnight rate was lowered to 1.25% Prior was 1.75% Stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required Outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January Coronavirus is a material negative shock to Canadian and global outlook Business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity. It is becoming clear that the first quarter of 2020 will be weaker than the Bank had expected Rail line blockades, strikes by Ontario teachers, and winter storms in some regions are dampening economic activity in the first quarter time to lock in mortgage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Shift-4 said: time to lock in mortgage I'd wait. To quote Randy Bachman "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted March 4, 2020 Author Share Posted March 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: I'd wait. To quote Randy Bachman "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet". Think negative rates are possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Warhippy said: Think negative rates are possible? In Canada probably not. It would take things really going down the tubes globally for that to happen. Same for the States unless Trump gets his way. Both Canada and the US are now at 1.25%. So there is still plenty of room to maneuver. No such room in the EU where they are currently at zero. Japan is slightly negative. Australia who is at .5% has hinted at negative and perhaps even "unconventional policy" that can only mean quantitative easing. The Swiss are at -.75. They don't mess around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 2 hours ago, riffraff said: So 2007-8 all over again They pulled it back together in 2008. The worse case is that confidence in government is lost and people hunker down. Deflation followed by massive inflation. Think Argentina, Venezula or Zimbabwe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted March 4, 2020 Author Share Posted March 4, 2020 1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said: In Canada probably not. It would take things really going down the tubes globally for that to happen. Same for the States unless Trump gets his way. Both Canada and the US are now at 1.25%. So there is still plenty of room to maneuver. No such room in the EU where they are currently at zero. Japan is slightly negative. Australia who is at .5% has hinted at negative and perhaps even "unconventional policy" that can only mean quantitative easing. The Swiss are at -.75. They don't mess around. The Swiss have always been an island of seeming insane calm in the world of economics. Asus already in to QE is kind of shocking but not entirely, the last 8 years for them have been a political mess. With our interest rates paired together with the US I wonder if this means our nation's combined lockstep interest rates are back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, Warhippy said: The Swiss have always been an island of seeming insane calm in the world of economics. Asus already in to QE is kind of shocking but not entirely, the last 8 years for them have been a political mess. With our interest rates paired together with the US I wonder if this means our nation's combined lockstep interest rates are back Yeah the Swiss just do their own thing. Not being part of the EU allows you to do that. As for Australia yeah they seem to keep finding unsuitable people to be PM. Like the current guy (Morrison) who figured it would be a good idea to vacation in Hawaii while his country was on fire. Somehow they have managed to go 29 years without entering a recession. We will move in the same general direction as the US but our issues are different. Rail blockades, coronavirus fears, oil prices firmly dipping below $50. Today was Stephen Poloz's last meeting chaired as BOC head before he hands over the reigns to his deputy Caroline Wilkins. Generally speaking they never make policy moves on their way out the door. So doing a .50 cut on his way out is quite notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted March 4, 2020 Author Share Posted March 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Yeah the Swiss just do their own thing. Not being part of the EU allows you to do that. As for Australia yeah they seem to keep finding unsuitable people to be PM. Like the current guy (Morrison) who figured it would be a good idea to vacation in Hawaii while his country was on fire. Somehow they have managed to go 29 years without entering a recession. We will move in the same general direction as the US but our issues are different. Rail blockades, coronavirus fears, oil prices firmly dipping below $50. Today was Stephen Poloz's last meeting chaired as BOC head before he hands over the reigns to his deputy Caroline Wilkins. Generally speaking they never make policy moves on their way out the door. So doing a .50 cut on his way out is quite notable. Didn't realize he was on his way out yet. That does make it interesting. Asus has done some interesting things. Their foreign ownership and real estate laws are absolutely intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 3 hours ago, nuckin_futz said: I'd wait. To quote Randy Bachman "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Russ Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 (edited) 10 hours ago, nuckin_futz said: Might as well just drop this in here ............ Bank of Canada cuts rates by 50 basis points vs a 25 cut expected Wed 4 Mar 2020 15:00:07 GMT Bank of Canada interest rate decision highlights: The overnight rate was lowered to 1.25% Prior was 1.75% Stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required Outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January Coronavirus is a material negative shock to Canadian and global outlook Business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity. It is becoming clear that the first quarter of 2020 will be weaker than the Bank had expected Rail line blockades, strikes by Ontario teachers, and winter storms in some regions are dampening economic activity in the first quarter Sweet! Gotta see how far rates drop by June when I gotta get papers in for renewal. Hopefully they drop a bit lower by then and I can lock in for a longer term. Edited March 5, 2020 by Russ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 Recessions always seem to trigger speculation on Armageddon scenarios. If so many people weren’t on a fiscal cliff already they might be less worried. Recessions increase unemployment and usually increase the cost of money. People have to adjust their lifestyles to meet their anticipated expenses. As a rule most people don’t do long term planning and don’t understand much about finances. At every opportunity I challenge politicians to increase financial education in schools. This is never received very enthusiastically. Keep the plebs dumb and easy to manipulated is my only conclusion. Most political candidates have no credititentials for the jobs they aspire to. This attitude is no different whether left or right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Boudrias said: Recessions always seem to trigger speculation on Armageddon scenarios. If so many people weren’t on a fiscal cliff already they might be less worried. Recessions increase unemployment and usually increase the cost of money. People have to adjust their lifestyles to meet their anticipated expenses. As a rule most people don’t do long term planning and don’t understand much about finances. At every opportunity I challenge politicians to increase financial education in schools. This is never received very enthusiastically. Keep the plebs dumb and easy to manipulated is my only conclusion. Most political candidates have no credititentials for the jobs they aspire to. This attitude is no different whether left or right. Bingo. The purpose of the education system is to breed obedient mules for taxation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUPERTKBD Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 On 3/4/2020 at 9:39 AM, nuckin_futz said: They will borrow if you let them. Ever been stuffed full and then someone brings out a plate of fudge brownies, and you know if you have one you might pop? Did you refuse it? Or did you chomp one down. That's exactly what is next. It's a ponzi scheme. You keep all the balls in the air as long as you can. Eventually the balls will come crashing down and there will be Hell to pay. The laws of economics deem it to be so. Like with that fudge brownie. They are always able to consume more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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