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[Discussion] Will the Next one be the Worst Recession in History?


Warhippy

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45 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

 

China says work resumption rates vary from 60% to over 95% (ex Hubei)

Fri 13 Mar 2020 02:59:28 GMT

 

China vice industry minister 

  • says work resumption rate for small and medium-sized firms outside of Hubei is around 60%
  • for larger-scale firms outside of Hubei is over 95%

Says will coordinate with other countries' govts to push forward business resumption, reduce the impact of coronavirus pandemic as much as possible

They're coming back online!  That's great news.  Expected another week or two at least.

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1 hour ago, CanuckGAME said:

My wife and I just sold our house last month and have been house hunting every day looking to purchase something..

 

Guess we will take a step back and watch everything unfold before we get back into the market..

Interest rates will drop a bit further still. Should be good for you. :)

 

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10 hours ago, aGENT said:

That certainly might help us... we've just got a load of money sitting in the bank at the moment and we might be able to get a house for a lot less in a month or two. Now whether I have a job to pay the mortgage on it is another question entirely...

Get a locked in rate for as long as you can. These low rates will not last.

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8 hours ago, Boudrias said:

Get a locked in rate for as long as you can. These low rates will not last.

These low rates could go lower still. The problem with this novel virus is that we're likely about to experience a novel recession, with consumer confidence being crushed and the world shutting down so many major parts of the economy. Add this to unsustainable debt levels and we have a recipe for a downturn that is so unpredictable that it may turn into a depression for all we know at this point. From the sounds of it, this isn't a situation like other recessions where governments can bail out industry by throwing billions at them. 

 

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/recession-feature

 

My wife and I are in a similar situation as you @aGENT. We've been patient up until now with purchasing a home, and it looks like we're going to continue that path for now to see where this goes.

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1 hour ago, Jester13 said:

These low rates could go lower still. The problem with this novel virus is that we're likely about to experience a novel recession, with consumer confidence being crushed and the world shutting down so many major parts of the economy. Add this to unsustainable debt levels and we have a recipe for a downturn that is so unpredictable that it may turn into a depression for all we know at this point. From the sounds of it, this isn't a situation like other recessions where governments can bail out industry by throwing billions at them. 

 

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/recession-feature

 

Great read!

Explains well why fri stock jump will be short lived

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1 hour ago, Jester13 said:

These low rates could go lower still. The problem with this novel virus is that we're likely about to experience a novel recession, with consumer confidence being crushed and the world shutting down so many major parts of the economy. Add this to unsustainable debt levels and we have a recipe for a downturn that is so unpredictable that it may turn into a depression for all we know at this point. From the sounds of it, this isn't a situation like other recessions where governments can bail out industry by throwing billions at them. 

 

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/recession-feature

 

My wife and I are in a similar situation as you @aGENT. We've been patient up until now with purchasing a home, and it looks like we're going to continue that path for now to see where this goes.

All you say is true. I say lock in your mortgage because at some point the government options will run out and the real cost of risk will reassert itself. As much as the government thinks they can keep creating money they cannot. It will get very ugly.

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3 hours ago, Jester13 said:

These low rates could go lower still. The problem with this novel virus is that we're likely about to experience a novel recession, with consumer confidence being crushed and the world shutting down so many major parts of the economy. Add this to unsustainable debt levels and we have a recipe for a downturn that is so unpredictable that it may turn into a depression for all we know at this point. From the sounds of it, this isn't a situation like other recessions where governments can bail out industry by throwing billions at them. 

 

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/recession-feature

 

My wife and I are in a similar situation as you @aGENT. We've been patient up until now with purchasing a home, and it looks like we're going to continue that path for now to see where this goes.

That's a great read and comes close to what I've been pondering for the last 2 or 3 weeks.  Prior to Covid really starting I was already of the mind that these internal forces in Canada would be a serious source of issue.  but this global force is something nobody can account for at all.

 

I sincerely do think that housing and travel within Canada are going to become far cheaper in the next 6 months.

 

Still bought my lotto last night though.  Because nothing says irony like winning $50 million, catching the virus being quarantined and unable to cash your cheque, only to do it and find out that the Canadian dollar is worth about 50 cents USD

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1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

That's a great read and comes close to what I've been pondering for the last 2 or 3 weeks.  Prior to Covid really starting I was already of the mind that these internal forces in Canada would be a serious source of issue.  but this global force is something nobody can account for at all.

 

I sincerely do think that housing and travel within Canada are going to become far cheaper in the next 6 months.

 

Still bought my lotto last night though.  Because nothing says irony like winning $50 million, catching the virus being quarantined and unable to cash your cheque, only to do it and find out that the Canadian dollar is worth about 50 cents USD

Same lol

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44 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Same lol

Wouldn't that just be the greatest.  Sitting on $50 million.  Stuck inside watching that value plummet to like $18 million anywhere outside of Canada.

 

Still made bank but whomp whomp

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French state mulls cash injection into Air France-KLM

Sat 14 Mar 2020 16:25:14 GMT

 

French airline already in need of a bailout

French airline already in need of a bailout
France's Los Echos says the government is looking at potentially raising its stake in Air France-KLM to help prop up the airline.
 
The economy minister and CEO discussed ways to support the airline. The government already holds a 14.3% stake.
 
Earlier there was a denial and the company has already laid off 2,000 employees. Yesterday the airline tapped a 1.1B euro facility.
 
Lots of airlines are going to be bailed out in the next few months but the speed of this one is shocking to me. Overall, the scope of bailouts and deficits on this crisis is going to be astronomical. Trump has already mulled bailouts for cruise ships and shale oil.
 
******************
 
No one is allowed to fail. Everyone will get a bailout. Count on it.
 
Image result for well that escalated quickly
 
 
Edited by nuckin_futz
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38 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

French state mulls cash injection into Air France-KLM

Sat 14 Mar 2020 16:25:14 GMT

 

French airline already in need of a bailout

French airline already in need of a bailout
France's Los Echos says the government is looking at potentially raising its stake in Air France-KLM to help prop up the airline.
 
The economy minister and CEO discussed ways to support the airline. The government already holds a 14.3% stake.
 
Earlier there was a denial and the company has already laid off 2,000 employees. Yesterday the airline tapped a 1.1B euro facility.
 
Lots of airlines are going to be bailed out in the next few months but the speed of this one is shocking to me. Overall, the scope of bailouts and deficits on this crisis is going to be astronomical. Trump has already mulled bailouts for cruise ships and shale oil.
 
******************
 
No one is allowed to fail. Everyone will get a bailout. Count on it.
 
Image result for well that escalated quickly
 
 

That's why I am looking at things like Carnival, Boeing etc as safe stocks over the next week.  You just know they're going to absolutely come through on the backs of taxpayer bfunded corporate socialism 

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1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

Wouldn't that just be the greatest.  Sitting on $50 million.  Stuck inside watching that value plummet to like $18 million anywhere outside of Canada.

 

Still made bank but whomp whomp

If be fine with it! $18m is still $18 more than I have now! Hell, I'd even be ok splitting the prize with a couple or three people!

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5 hours ago, aGENT said:

If be fine with it! $18m is still $18 more than I have now! Hell, I'd even be ok splitting the prize with a couple or three people!

I buy a ticket and I always say I'd be happy with 2nd or 3rd place honestly

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13 hours ago, Warhippy said:

I buy a ticket and I always say I'd be happy with 2nd or 3rd place honestly

Yup, or I'd gladly take an 'extra' win or a max millions etc.

 

I have no problem still working to some degree if it wasn't enough to outright retire but enough to take the edge off is all you really need. A bit of money to invest, to be able to spend more time with family without worrying about your paycheque etc, maybe a lower stress job in something that feels more like a fun hobby.

 

And now is likely to be a good time for it. I'd gladly take an extra $500k'ish to invest in real estate (or a bit in the stock market) right now!

 

Or hookers and blow... whatever's your thing :lol:

Edited by aGENT
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The speed of the collapse of airlines is breathtaking - Italy plans to take over Alitalia

Mon 16 Mar 2020 13:03:43 GMT

Italy takes over national airline

Italy takes over national airline
 
The government already had a stake in the airline.
 
Air France KLM is talking about a bailout. On the weekend, Virgin Atlantic said the UK aviation industry will need 7.5B pounds in a bailout.
 
American Airlines announced it was virtually shutting down long-haul international travel. Airlines don't own planes and the lease payments are still due. It's looking like most global airlines might need bailouts.
 
Overall, that's not entirely surprising but the speed of it is ominous. It argues there are far more systemic risks and bond market risks and deficit risks than anyone is expecting.
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