Saudi Arabia declares oil price war on fellow OPEC (and non OPEC)members.

[Warhippy]

20 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Oil companies will collapse and consolidate through this. Demand will eventually come back and the bigger dogs left standing will still need a lot of workers and pay lots of royalties. If we try to pick winners and losers via government thats going to be a disaster and waste billions.

 

I know there are many Albertans who want alternatives to the oil industry, lets help them out this time. 

China rebuilt their entire freight and passenger rail system as well as their ports for just around $450 billion.

 

Their rail system is 16 times more extensive than hours.

 

They've created the framework for a national sustainable energy grid for just around $126 billion.  Again, for a population 40x larger than hours.

 

These were moves which added full percentage points to China's gdp

 

Imagine what $30 billion could do to just Alberta IF spent correctly.

[nuckin_futz]

June oil contracts falls below $10; July falls below $20

Tue 21 Apr 2020 17:48:30 GMT

 

May and June are nearing convergence

The May contract has quietly recovered a huge chunk of yesterday's losses and is trading at $8.50 per barrel just 45 minutes ahead of final settlement. That reveals there is -- at least -- some real demand for crude oil barrels.

 

However the June contract is in a crunch because the USO ETF owns 30% of it and speculative longs are probably having second thoughts after yesterday. That's leaving few buyers and it's down 52% to $9.74.

 

 

The problem with that contract is that 30% of it is held by USO and the ETF simply can't go negative without leaving someone with some stupendous losses.

 

Looking even further out, the July contract is now down $6.55 to $19.67 in another brutal drop and contracts out a year are down at least $3/barrel.

 

**************

 

June contract just hit a low of $6.50.

Edited April 21, 2020 by nuckin_futz

[Warhippy]

22 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

June oil contracts falls below $10; July falls below $20

Tue 21 Apr 2020 17:48:30 GMT

 

May and June are nearing convergence

The May contract has quietly recovered a huge chunk of yesterday's losses and is trading at $8.50 per barrel just 45 minutes ahead of final settlement. That reveals there is -- at least -- some real demand for crude oil barrels.

 

However the June contract is in a crunch because the USO ETF owns 30% of it and speculative longs are probably having second thoughts after yesterday. That's leaving few buyers and it's down 52% to $9.74.

 

 

The problem with that contract is that 30% of it is held by USO and the ETF simply can't go negative without leaving someone with some stupendous losses.

 

Looking even further out, the July contract is now down $6.55 to $19.67 in another brutal drop and contracts out a year are down at least $3/barrel.

 

**************

 

June contract just hit a low of $6.50.

It's only going to get worse isn't it.  The next two weeks are gonna be ugly.

 

When are the next major earnings and confidence reports out again?

Edited April 21, 2020 by Warhippy

[nuckin_futz]

13 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

It's only going to get worse isn't it.  The next two weeks are gonna be ugly.

 

When are the next major earnings and confidence reports out again?

Problem is there's still no place to put all this oil.

 

We are in earnings season right now. So they keep rolling out everyday. Consumer Confidence as well as first look GDP are out next week.

 

You may find this economic data calendar useful..... https://www.forexfactory.com/

 

[Warhippy]

13 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Problem is there's still no place to put all this oil.

 

We are in earnings season right now. So they keep rolling out everyday. Consumer Confidence as well as first look GDP are out next week.

 

You may find this economic data calendar useful..... https://www.forexfactory.com/

 

The confidence reports and GDP are what I have been waiting for myself.  They'll dictate a good part of the next dip in the markets and I expect potentially more cash interference from governments

[nuckin_futz]

7 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

The confidence reports and GDP are what I have been waiting for myself.  They'll dictate a good part of the next dip in the markets and I expect potentially more cash interference from governments

I suspect what will be more important will be the virus infection rates in about 4 weeks time. You have a lot of states re-opening to various degrees. I suspect in about the third week of May you'll see a spike in infection rates and hospital visits. Then the markets will realize their folly.

[Warhippy]

5 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

I suspect what will be more important will be the virus infection rates in about 4 weeks time. You have a lot of states re-opening to various degrees. I suspect in about the third week of May you'll see a spike in infection rates and hospital visits. Then the markets will realize their folly.

I agree with the spike theory.  It's an inevitability.

 

But some of the most essential areas are still going to be seeing numbers climb in the interim due to their refusal to close down

 

I anticipate some of the best buying times will be in the first 2 weeks of May myself.  With Air Canada now suspending ALL US flights they'll be effectively shut down too.  Some good gains to be had in the next month

[JM_]

2 hours ago, Warhippy said:

China rebuilt their entire freight and passenger rail system as well as their ports for just around $450 billion.

 

Their rail system is 16 times more extensive than hours.

 

They've created the framework for a national sustainable energy grid for just around $126 billion.  Again, for a population 40x larger than hours.

 

These were moves which added full percentage points to China's gdp

 

Imagine what $30 billion could do to just Alberta IF spent correctly.

high speed rail from Calgary to TO would be interesting. How about a new critical medicines pharma industry in Calgary? what about an actual revolution in Canadian food production led out of Edmonton? 30 bil right there. 

[Warhippy]

20 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

high speed rail from Calgary to TO would be interesting. How about a new critical medicines pharma industry in Calgary? what about an actual revolution in Canadian food production led out of Edmonton? 30 bil right there. 

What common sense ideas.  So not worth the time to invest in

[nuckin_futz]

[Ryan Strome]

@Jimmy McGill I suspect you will enjoy this.

 

 

Trudeau gets another shot, for Alberta he blows it again

Justin Trudeau gets another kick at the can Tuesday.

Another opportunity for the prime minister to actually … can he do it … answer a flipping question.

A simple question, a simple answer.

He could say No. He could say Yes. He could say Yes but he’s working out the fine print. He could say something.

Question. Is there going to be further support for the oilpatch?

Is there more coming to the patch than the bone he tossed out Friday, cleaning up orphan wells while providing diddly details on what Alberta wants, a credit backstop for companies fighting against the ugliness of the next year to 18 months?

 

Is there more coming than what was served up, a meagre meal designed so even Greta Thunberg’s friends wouldn’t be upset?

It’s Groundhog Day. Again Trudeau dances the way he always dances. Again Trudeau commits to nothing and takes a lot of words to get to Nowheresville.

Trudeau says his government is helping people across Canada. His government has done a lot for all industries, including the oilpatch.

His government has helped thousands of workers across Alberta, and yes, in the oilpatch.

Then there’s the old trick.

Trudeau dangles a carrot, a just-out-of-reach tease designed to make sure the Alberta government keeps playing nice with him.

You see, the folks in Edmonton don’t want to upset our prime minister and do something like compare his political depth to that of a finger bowl.

Do that and Trudeau might walk away and we’d be hooped.

It appears Trudeau has Alberta by the … you get the picture. The tail wags the dog.

So it goes. Trudeau says he’s always open to working with those needing support to get through the COVID-19 crisis.

Oh, thank you, Mr. Prime Minister. The door is still open. There is still hope.

What do I know? Grovelling could work.

 

A second question. Will there be support for provinces relying heavily on oil dough?

Let’s quote the PM word for word, just to show you his remarks are usually paraphrased to spare you the pain of his actual verbiage.

“We recognize various provinces are facing real challenges in terms of cash crunches, in terms of liquidity and our department of finance and others are engaged with different provinces in challenges they’re facing specifically.”

Oh well. Do not despair. Is that a light at the tunnel? It’s very hard to see. The tunnel is very long and very dark.

Seamus O’Regan, one of Trudeau’s sidekicks, a self-advertised friend of the oilpatch, says he’s working with the Alberta government. He has a good relationship with them. He’s working closely with Sonya Savage, Alberta’s energy minister.

I bet she’s going to get a Christmas card this year.

He talks with Alberta “frequently and often.”

Frequently AND often. That’s a lot.

The situation is fluid and the lines of communication are open and something will happen.

“We have to make sure the survivors survive,” says O’Regan, not explaining why the Trudeau government didn’t just reveal what was in the survival kit last Friday.

The Alberta government, Savage’s office to be specific and not Premier Jason Kenney’s staff who are most capable, did not call back to tell their side of the story.

John Barlow, the Conservative MP for southwestern Alberta, is a heavy hitter when he needs to be.

When Barlow hears Trudeau on Friday, he is angry at what he calls “a huge slap in the face.”

He says it is like the girl leading on the guy to believe she is his prom date but on the big day, he’s left standing alone in the high school gym with no dance partner.

Barlow says he talks to people in the oilpatch who are at their wits’ end.

One guy tells the MP “it’s like the government is stepping on my throat and is pushing down and I’m just watching the life seep out of me.”

Does Barlow think Trudeau will come through?

On the one hand, Liberal MPs see “an opportunity to speed up the demise of the energy sector.”

On the other hand, coming out of COVID-19, Ottawa may look to the battered and bruised golden goose to live another day and churn out coin for Fat City.

By the way, stateside on Tuesday, President Donald Trump promises a financial lifeline to the oilpatch down there.

“We will never let the great U.S. oil and gas industry down,” says Trump.

Can you hear Trudeau speak those words? There’s a simple question with a simple answer.

No.

rbell@postmedia.com

https://calgarysun.com/opinion/columnists/bell-trudeau-gets-another-shot-for-alberta-he-blows-it-again

[thedestroyerofworlds]

Just now, Ryan Strome said:

@Jimmy McGill I suspect you will enjoy this.

 

 

Trudeau gets another shot, for Alberta he blows it again

Justin Trudeau gets another kick at the can Tuesday.

Another opportunity for the prime minister to actually … can he do it … answer a flipping question.

A simple question, a simple answer.

He could say No. He could say Yes. He could say Yes but he’s working out the fine print. He could say something.

Question. Is there going to be further support for the oilpatch?

Is there more coming to the patch than the bone he tossed out Friday, cleaning up orphan wells while providing diddly details on what Alberta wants, a credit backstop for companies fighting against the ugliness of the next year to 18 months?

 

Is there more coming than what was served up, a meagre meal designed so even Greta Thunberg’s friends wouldn’t be upset?

It’s Groundhog Day. Again Trudeau dances the way he always dances. Again Trudeau commits to nothing and takes a lot of words to get to Nowheresville.

Trudeau says his government is helping people across Canada. His government has done a lot for all industries, including the oilpatch.

His government has helped thousands of workers across Alberta, and yes, in the oilpatch.

Then there’s the old trick.

Trudeau dangles a carrot, a just-out-of-reach tease designed to make sure the Alberta government keeps playing nice with him.

You see, the folks in Edmonton don’t want to upset our prime minister and do something like compare his political depth to that of a finger bowl.

Do that and Trudeau might walk away and we’d be hooped.

It appears Trudeau has Alberta by the … you get the picture. The tail wags the dog.

So it goes. Trudeau says he’s always open to working with those needing support to get through the COVID-19 crisis.

Oh, thank you, Mr. Prime Minister. The door is still open. There is still hope.

What do I know? Grovelling could work.

 

A second question. Will there be support for provinces relying heavily on oil dough?

Let’s quote the PM word for word, just to show you his remarks are usually paraphrased to spare you the pain of his actual verbiage.

“We recognize various provinces are facing real challenges in terms of cash crunches, in terms of liquidity and our department of finance and others are engaged with different provinces in challenges they’re facing specifically.”

Oh well. Do not despair. Is that a light at the tunnel? It’s very hard to see. The tunnel is very long and very dark.

Seamus O’Regan, one of Trudeau’s sidekicks, a self-advertised friend of the oilpatch, says he’s working with the Alberta government. He has a good relationship with them. He’s working closely with Sonya Savage, Alberta’s energy minister.

I bet she’s going to get a Christmas card this year.

He talks with Alberta “frequently and often.”

Frequently AND often. That’s a lot.

The situation is fluid and the lines of communication are open and something will happen.

“We have to make sure the survivors survive,” says O’Regan, not explaining why the Trudeau government didn’t just reveal what was in the survival kit last Friday.

The Alberta government, Savage’s office to be specific and not Premier Jason Kenney’s staff who are most capable, did not call back to tell their side of the story.

John Barlow, the Conservative MP for southwestern Alberta, is a heavy hitter when he needs to be.

When Barlow hears Trudeau on Friday, he is angry at what he calls “a huge slap in the face.”

He says it is like the girl leading on the guy to believe she is his prom date but on the big day, he’s left standing alone in the high school gym with no dance partner.

Barlow says he talks to people in the oilpatch who are at their wits’ end.

One guy tells the MP “it’s like the government is stepping on my throat and is pushing down and I’m just watching the life seep out of me.”

Does Barlow think Trudeau will come through?

On the one hand, Liberal MPs see “an opportunity to speed up the demise of the energy sector.”

On the other hand, coming out of COVID-19, Ottawa may look to the battered and bruised golden goose to live another day and churn out coin for Fat City.

By the way, stateside on Tuesday, President Donald Trump promises a financial lifeline to the oilpatch down there.

“We will never let the great U.S. oil and gas industry down,” says Trump.

Can you hear Trudeau speak those words? There’s a simple question with a simple answer.

No.

rbell@postmedia.com

https://calgarysun.com/opinion/columnists/bell-trudeau-gets-another-shot-for-alberta-he-blows-it-again

I think he would because the guy who said he doesn't post opinion pieces to make a point just did it again. 

[Ryan Strome]

1 minute ago, thedestroyerofworlds said:

I think he would because the guy who said he doesn't post opinion pieces to make a point just did it again. 

I simply told someone they might enjoy a specific post. I think your Trump thread misses you. Bye, yankee.

[thedestroyerofworlds]

Just now, Ryan Strome said:

I simply told someone they might enjoy a specific post. I think your Trump thread misses you. Bye, yankee.

TRUMP thread is not my thread.  Not a Yankee.   So wrong on both accounts.   

[aGENT]

I'd be thrilled to see billions of our tax dollars go to supporting Alberta and it's workers in any sort of diversity, green tech, retrofit, infrastructure and training, building high speed rail etc, etc.

 

If they send one cent to help largely foreign owned oil companies who increasingly are automating jobs away in Alberta and in the current price/barrel environment will be producing oil cheaper, elsewhere anyway, they'll rightly be strung up by the rest of Canada.

Edited April 22, 2020 by aGENT

[HerrDrFunk]

22 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

@Jimmy McGill I suspect you will enjoy this.

 

 

Trudeau gets another shot, for Alberta he blows it again

Justin Trudeau gets another kick at the can Tuesday.

Another opportunity for the prime minister to actually … can he do it … answer a flipping question.

A simple question, a simple answer.

He could say No. He could say Yes. He could say Yes but he’s working out the fine print. He could say something.

Question. Is there going to be further support for the oilpatch?

Is there more coming to the patch than the bone he tossed out Friday, cleaning up orphan wells while providing diddly details on what Alberta wants, a credit backstop for companies fighting against the ugliness of the next year to 18 months?

 

Is there more coming than what was served up, a meagre meal designed so even Greta Thunberg’s friends wouldn’t be upset?

It’s Groundhog Day. Again Trudeau dances the way he always dances. Again Trudeau commits to nothing and takes a lot of words to get to Nowheresville.

Trudeau says his government is helping people across Canada. His government has done a lot for all industries, including the oilpatch.

His government has helped thousands of workers across Alberta, and yes, in the oilpatch.

Then there’s the old trick.

Trudeau dangles a carrot, a just-out-of-reach tease designed to make sure the Alberta government keeps playing nice with him.

You see, the folks in Edmonton don’t want to upset our prime minister and do something like compare his political depth to that of a finger bowl.

Do that and Trudeau might walk away and we’d be hooped.

It appears Trudeau has Alberta by the … you get the picture. The tail wags the dog.

So it goes. Trudeau says he’s always open to working with those needing support to get through the COVID-19 crisis.

Oh, thank you, Mr. Prime Minister. The door is still open. There is still hope.

What do I know? Grovelling could work.

 

A second question. Will there be support for provinces relying heavily on oil dough?

Let’s quote the PM word for word, just to show you his remarks are usually paraphrased to spare you the pain of his actual verbiage.

“We recognize various provinces are facing real challenges in terms of cash crunches, in terms of liquidity and our department of finance and others are engaged with different provinces in challenges they’re facing specifically.”

Oh well. Do not despair. Is that a light at the tunnel? It’s very hard to see. The tunnel is very long and very dark.

Seamus O’Regan, one of Trudeau’s sidekicks, a self-advertised friend of the oilpatch, says he’s working with the Alberta government. He has a good relationship with them. He’s working closely with Sonya Savage, Alberta’s energy minister.

I bet she’s going to get a Christmas card this year.

He talks with Alberta “frequently and often.”

Frequently AND often. That’s a lot.

The situation is fluid and the lines of communication are open and something will happen.

“We have to make sure the survivors survive,” says O’Regan, not explaining why the Trudeau government didn’t just reveal what was in the survival kit last Friday.

The Alberta government, Savage’s office to be specific and not Premier Jason Kenney’s staff who are most capable, did not call back to tell their side of the story.

John Barlow, the Conservative MP for southwestern Alberta, is a heavy hitter when he needs to be.

When Barlow hears Trudeau on Friday, he is angry at what he calls “a huge slap in the face.”

He says it is like the girl leading on the guy to believe she is his prom date but on the big day, he’s left standing alone in the high school gym with no dance partner.

Barlow says he talks to people in the oilpatch who are at their wits’ end.

One guy tells the MP “it’s like the government is stepping on my throat and is pushing down and I’m just watching the life seep out of me.”

Does Barlow think Trudeau will come through?

On the one hand, Liberal MPs see “an opportunity to speed up the demise of the energy sector.”

On the other hand, coming out of COVID-19, Ottawa may look to the battered and bruised golden goose to live another day and churn out coin for Fat City.

By the way, stateside on Tuesday, President Donald Trump promises a financial lifeline to the oilpatch down there.

“We will never let the great U.S. oil and gas industry down,” says Trump.

Can you hear Trudeau speak those words? There’s a simple question with a simple answer.

No.

rbell@postmedia.com

https://calgarysun.com/opinion/columnists/bell-trudeau-gets-another-shot-for-alberta-he-blows-it-again

I'm not sure if I'm reading a political opinion piece or a particularly dramatic excerpt from a grade 10 student's diary after his crush told him "maybe" when he asked if she wanted to go to the dance with him. 

[Warhippy]

3 minutes ago, aGENT said:

If be thrilled to see billions of our tax dollars go to supporting Alberta and it's workers in any sort of diversity, green tech, retrofit, infrastructure and training, building high speed rail etc, etc.

 

If they send one cent to help largely foreign owned oil companies who increasingly are automating jobs away in Alberta and in the current price/barrel environment will be producing oil cheaper, elsewhere anyway, they'll rightly be strung up by the rest of Canada.

The whiner in the opinion piece is suggesting a year to 18 month credit backstop for companies that are still producing outside of Canada, that have automated thousands, if not tens of thousands of jobs in the last decade and who are still turning profits.  He is essentially calling for national subsidization of private industry.

 

You cannot make this level of irony up

[aGENT]

4 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

The whiner in the opinion piece is suggesting a year to 18 month credit backstop for companies that are still producing outside of Canada, that have automated thousands, if not tens of thousands of jobs in the last decade and who are still turning profits.  He is essentially calling for national subsidization of private industry.

 

You cannot make this level of irony up

By golly that sounds like communism for corporations! And without the benefit for the state.

Edited April 22, 2020 by aGENT

[Warhippy]

29 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

 

Is there more coming to the patch than the bone he tossed out Friday, cleaning up orphan wells while providing diddly details on what Alberta wants, a credit backstop for companies fighting against the ugliness of the next year to 18 months?

 

By the way, stateside on Tuesday, President Donald Trump promises a financial lifeline to the oilpatch down there.

“We will never let the great U.S. oil and gas industry down,” says Trump.

Can you hear Trudeau speak those words? There’s a simple question with a simple answer.

No.

Point 1.  He is asking for national subsidization for a year to 2 years of a private industry.  These large, hands out and asking companies; are still producing.  Are still producing in other markets.  But want money from taxpayers for a situation that is literally the cause of market forces.  Forces many experts have been claiming were a certainty for a while now.  To clarify, national subsidization for multi national companies still churning out profits and producing oil in other parts of the world with better break even prices.

 

No.  Give that money to small producers of 50 employees or less and to all those out of work in the energy sector right now.  These larger companies should fold or survive based on their own balance sheets.  There is nothing conservative about bailing out companies due to basic market forces many predicted were coming if OPEC wanted to play hardball.  If these companies STILL want tax dollars they can sign over full percentages of ownership to the fed.  See if they still have the stomach for it.

 

Point 2.  Quoting Trump in ANYTHING is a joke.  He is literally the only reason oil is moving in America.  he is threatening tariffs on oil coming in from canada, to saudi arabia.  HIs 2.2 trillion bailout apparently left hundreds of thousands to millions of small businesses without a dime but large corporations received their 10% to 13%  Trump is now ready to pay these producers to keep their oil in the ground.  Trump is literally ready to subsidize massive multi national producers in the permian and bakkan fields to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.  When this guy makes statements like that and whines nothing is being done in comparison here in canada he is an idiot with no credibility.

 

Money is flowing in to Alberta, transfer payments have doubled in less than 5 years, a pipeline was bought, almost 2 billion was earmarked to clean up the mess of the corporations who told landowners and municipalities to shove it when they wanted their lease money and threaten o leave every other month since the energy downturn started in late 2014.

 

We all know Alberta is hurting but why the hell would we risk throwing tens of billions of our dollars at a problem that will need tens of billions of dollars more in 3 months while a good portion of these companies waiting with hands out; STILL produce outside of canada?

[Warhippy]

5 minutes ago, aGENT said:

By golly that sounds like communism for corporations! And without the benefit for the state.

Now I know the idea of a national energy plan sounds a lot like socialism.  I know that Canadian ownership of our resources is anathema to many in Alberta.  Ensuring that people would be working and that our strategic place in the energy markets was assured without being held hostage by OPEC or massive corporations.  But thank god we have the good sense to not engage in that nonsense.  I mean, we should just give them tens of billions to hire back a small percentage of the people they have laid off and ensure we lose on that ROI in short order when these companies fold their tax shells, leave hundreds or thousands more orphaned wells for clean up at taxpayers expense and continue producing under a different name and in other parts of the world