[Rumour] Alex Pietrangelo to test free agency

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, Chris12345 said:

That third pairing is so bad.

why would you say that? 

[shazzam]

It's not impossible to fit him in. We let Marky and Tanev walk via UFA. Don't qualify Stetcher. Sign AP, ELC repalces Stetcher, sign another goalie.

Perhpas, offload one of Sutter/Eriksson/Rooster

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

53 minutes ago, billabong said:

My only worry with pietrangelo is his foot speed as he gets older 

 

probably got a good 3-4 years left in him but on a 6-7 year deal you’re gonna be eating it on the back half

 

7yrs/10m per is probably a fair offer

 

With petey and hughes up next year that’ll leave us with roughly 28-30m in 3 players....sounds a lot like the leafs and how’s that goin? 

People are gonna laugh, but you’re really not far off.
 

For me, that term would be too long at those dollars. I could make easily an argument for doing $10M AAV for 5 years, but for 7 years, probably I’d want to drop it to $9M AAV. That’s as far as predicted value goes.
 

Ideally, when talking real dollars and not predicted value, you’d find a way to get the deal lower even than that, but at those figures, you probably aren’t going to lose value on the deal.

 

Here’s some modelling on Pietrangelo from a couple years ago (courtesy of Dom Luszcyzscyn of The Athletic). Can’t find anything more current from a public source, unfortunately:

 

 

(Just to make a little sense of the numbers, pretty much anything over 2 GSVA is “elite” as in a top-15 NHL Dman)
 

Worth noting that, instead of the predicted 2020 GSVA of 2.4, Petro was actually a 3.3, and he hit career highs in 2019-20 for goals, shots, and points per game. He continues to log around 25 minutes per game with no signs of wearing down. He’s definitely not showing any “age related decline” yet, and at the level he’s currently playing (barring serious injury), even if he follows the expected aging curve, he probably remains “top pairing quality” over the life of his next deal (and “elite” for a fair chunk of the early years).

Edited September 19, 2020 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

[Chris12345]

2 minutes ago, Robert Long said:

why would you say that? 

Well if Benn is in the press box I would be uncomfortable with a third pairing who combine for 0 NHL regular season games.

 

If 1 dman gets hurt you are now running 5 d and if another gets a penalty you are running 4 d.

 

In that scenario 50% of your d has played 0 NHL regular season games.

Edited September 19, 2020 by Chris12345

[JM_]

1 minute ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

People are gonna laugh, but you’re really not far off.
 

For me, that term would be too long at those dollars. I could make easily an argument for doing $10M AAV for 5 years, but for 7 years, probably I’d want to drop it to $9M AAV. That’s as far as predicted value goes.
 

Ideally, when talking real dollars and not predicted value, you’d find a way to get the deal lower even than that, but at those figures, you probably aren’t going to lose value on the deal.

 

Here’s some modelling on Pietrangelo from a couple years ago (courtesy of Dom Luszcyzscyn of The Athletic). Can’t find anything more current from a public source, unfortunately:

 

 

Worth noting that, instead of the predicted 2020 GSVA of 2.4, Petro was actually a 3.3, and he hit career highs in 2019-20 for goals, shots, and points per game. He continues to log around 25 minutes per game with no signs of wearing down. He’s definitely not showing any “age related decline” yet, and at the level he’s currently playing (barring serious injury), even if he follows the expected aging curve, he probably remains “top pairing quality” over the life of his next deal.

that graph reminds me of the hurricane projections that are rarely correct 

 

Certainly its a risk but its one I'd be all for. 

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, Chris12345 said:

Well if Benn is in the press box I would be uncomfortable with a third pairing who combine for 0 NHL regular season games.

 

If 1 dman gets hurt you are now running 5 d and if another gets a penalty you are running 4 d.

 

In that scenario 50% of your d has played 0 NHL regular season games.

Juolevi did look ready tho. And don't forget, we do have guys in Utica still just in case. 

 

When you're loading up on so much elite talent like we're theorizing here, the flip side of that is having to run out rookies. Tampa has done just fine doing that with Sergachev, i see no good reason not to think Juolevi can be used in a similar way. 

[PhillipBlunt]

13 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

If we managed to get some cap and we're able to sign Pietrangelo and Tanev I would **** in my pants. We might probably want to walk from a long term Marky deal if we went after Pietrangelo but we could probably still sign Tanev if we shed more cap giving us a rock solid D-core.

 

Firstly we'd have to shed cap though.

I’ll hold you to that. 

[guntrix]

2 minutes ago, Robert Long said:

we don't need to re-sign Edler. Tanev is great, but AP takes his spot. Pearson is replaced by Hoglander. Jake is moved for picks or cap dumping Loui. 

Jake alone isn't worth cap dumping Louie in a flat cap. 

 

In a perfect world, Hoglander is good enough to immediately replace Pearson's production but also highly unlikely. 

 

Letting Edler and/or Tanev walk when they're probably willing to sign on a discount just to stay in the city would be a mistake, especially when the alternative is signing an aging player who'll command UFA value. 

 

3 minutes ago, shazzam said:

It's not impossible to fit him in. We let Marky and Tanev walk via UFA. Don't qualify Stetcher. Sign AP, ELC repalces Stetcher, sign another goalie.

Perhpas, offload one of Sutter/Eriksson/Rooster

This just to fit Pietrangelo? No thanks. 

[Chris12345]

2 minutes ago, Robert Long said:

Juolevi did look ready tho. And don't forget, we do have guys in Utica still just in case. 

 

When you're loading up on so much elite talent like we're theorizing here, the flip side of that is having to run out rookies. Tampa has done just fine doing that with Sergachev, i see no good reason not to think Juolevi can be used in a similar way. 

True but I wouldn't start any back end with 2 rookies. Only 1.

 

If OJ was good for 1 game Demko gets the Veznia.

 

Edited September 19, 2020 by Chris12345

[Millerdraft]

4 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

People are gonna laugh, but you’re really not far off.
 

For me, that term would be too long at those dollars. I could make easily an argument for doing $10M AAV for 5 years, but for 7 years, probably I’d want to drop it to $9M AAV. That’s as far as predicted value goes.
 

Ideally, when talking real dollars and not predicted value, you’d find a way to get the deal lower even than that, but at those figures, you probably aren’t going to lose value on the deal.

 

Here’s some modelling on Pietrangelo from a couple years ago (courtesy of Dom Luszcyzscyn of The Athletic). Can’t find anything more current from a public source, unfortunately:

 

 

Worth noting that, instead of the predicted 2020 GSVA of 2.4, Petro was actually a 3.3, and he hit career highs in 2019-20 for goals, shots, and points per game. He continues to log around 25 minutes per game with no signs of wearing down. He’s definitely not showing any “age related decline” yet, and at the level he’s currently playing (barring serious injury), even if he follows the expected aging curve, he probably remains “top pairing quality” over the life of his next deal (and “elite” for a fair chunk of the early years).

There ya go.  Lock up Gaudette to a Calle Jarnkrok deal like the Preds did awhile back and this team would be set. 

[JeremyCuddles]

Nylander is trending on Twitter with the news that Pietrangelo is gonna hit the market. That'll be interesting if they move Johnsson and Nylander to throw money at Pietrangelo. 

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, Chris12345 said:

True but I wouldn't start any back end with 2 rookies. Only 1.

 

 

thats fair. You could have Benn on the right side, and rotate Juolevi and Rathbone on the left. There would be an 8th d of some kind as well, maybe Fanta. 

[shazzam]

1 minute ago, N7Nucks said:

Nylander is trending on Twitter with the news that Pietrangelo is gonna hit the market. That'll be interesting if they move Johnsson and Nylander to throw money at Pietrangelo. 

He's going to need to play 40mins a night in TO

[JM_]

3 minutes ago, guntrix said:

Jake alone isn't worth cap dumping Louie in a flat cap. 

 

In a perfect world, Hoglander is good enough to immediately replace Pearson's production but also highly unlikely. 

 

Letting Edler and/or Tanev walk when they're probably willing to sign on a discount just to stay in the city would be a mistake, especially when the alternative is signing an aging player who'll command UFA value. 

 

This just to fit Pietrangelo? No thanks. 

have to agree to disagree, if AP is on the board for us you go for it and work out the smaller problems later. 

[shazzam]

3 minutes ago, guntrix said:

Jake alone isn't worth cap dumping Louie in a flat cap. 

 

In a perfect world, Hoglander is good enough to immediately replace Pearson's production but also highly unlikely. 

 

Letting Edler and/or Tanev walk when they're probably willing to sign on a discount just to stay in the city would be a mistake, especially when the alternative is signing an aging player who'll command UFA value. 

 

This just to fit Pietrangelo? No thanks. 

well it's possible we lose both of them regardless

[JeremyCuddles]

Just now, shazzam said:

He's going to need to play 40mins a night in TO

Real talk though, Pietrangelo and Rielly would be a nasty combo. They'd have to do some cap magic but hey. Anything can happen.

[peaches5]

Colorado can give him whatever he wants. We could offer 9.5m but then we have to dump Virtanen and someone like Sutter. This is also assuming we don't re-sign Markstrom. Still room to re-sign Toffoli may have to dump another contract like Baerstchi. This is a guy worth having to give up some picks to dump some contracts if you can snag him. Number 1 dman do not ever make it to free agency. I wouldn't be surprised if someone trades for his rights and he never even sees FA.

Edited September 19, 2020 by peaches5

[Millerdraft]

It’s kinda reminiscent of Boston landing Chara back in ‘06/‘07, imo.  Hopefully Benning can pull it off

Edited September 19, 2020 by Millerdraft

[86Viking]

20 minutes ago, Robert Long said:

why would you say that? 

2 rookies potentially with 0 nhl experience. Benn was  bumped to 7th D this year

[peaches5]

I would offer try to trade for his rights and then offer him 1m a year with 9m signing bonus for the first 5 years then drop that down to like 1.5m 6m bonus try to get him on an average in high 8s.