[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at St. Louis Blues | Mar. 28, 2022

[IBatch]

7 hours ago, JamesB said:

 

 

1. The Canucks were not bad tonight--not exactly good, but not bad considering they were on the 4th game of a tough road trip. A couple of bounces the other way and the Canucks could have won. In terms of expected goals (or high danger chances) the Canucks were actually ahead according to Natural Stat Trick.

 

2. That said, I agree that the Canucks are not good enough. @Darius refers to the Green era as creating a deep hole, which it did. But I think the deeper structural problem that Rutherford and Allvin need to address is the situation Benning left.

 

3. On that theme, Boeser is a problem. I don't see how the Canucks can qualify him at 7.5 million and Allvin has indicated that there has been no progress in discussions so far with his agent regarding a long term deal at a lower cap hit. If the Canucks can get any positive asset for him in the offseason (like a 2nd round pick) they should and probably would take it. Brock is not useless, of course. He has an excellent shot and good offensive instincts but not much else -- no speed, no physical game, not much energy, not particularly good defensively. Signing a contract structured to yield a 7.5 million QO was typical Benning -- hurting the future to make life a bit easier in the short run.

 

4. Garland is no more than fair value for his cap hit and the Canucks gave up a lot to get him. Benning took on OEL's contract and gave up a first round pick to get Garland and to get rid of the final year of 3 poor contracts (all bad free agency signings by Benning). OEL is actually a good player, but he is signed very long term at a cap hit of 7 million and, at his age, that contract is an anchor (and has a NMC attached to it).

 

5, And the pipeline is weak. Lockwood has actually done well with the Canucks and I project him to make the team next year but, at best, he is decent bottom 6 forward. There are some other prospects who might work out, like Rathbone and Karlsson but they are far from being blue chip prospects. 

 

6. It will take a fair amount of work and some good luck for the Canucks to improve in the off-season, but I am optimistic about Allvin and Rutherford. And at least they managed to unload another bad UFA signing (Hamonic) and pick up a good value replacement (Dermott). And I certainly hope they keep Boudreau. He has earned another contract. He is only guaranteed this season with the Canucks and the team has an option for next year. 

What will happen with Brock is pretty simple.   He will be offered a deal that's on par with his comps.   That's it.   If the agent doesn't like it - and or Brock, then they can take the team to arbitration.   The mediator then decides, and it will be a one or two year deal at 85% of his 7.5 QO... nobody thinks he's earned it.   Look what Debrusk just got too...sure Brocks got better stats and pedigree ... so expect 6.375 x 1 or two years IF they can't make a deal.    To me his "deal" should be in the 25-27 million range.  Because well that's fair.   4/5 years that's it.   Teams not giving Brock a 7-8 year deal.   Neither is anyone else.   Too much risk.   Only way Brock is getting something like that is if he has two career years in a row after this one. 

[Ghostsof1915]

4 hours ago, sxqhfeh said:

Brock is pain of ass at summer. No one is going to trade for him if he's not signed... and if he's not qualified, he's a UFA... and if he's qualified who wants to trade for him at 7.5 mil?. I guess somebody else has to be traded unfortunately

Then fans will freak if the team let's him walk......

[IBatch]

9 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Then fans will freak if the team let's him walk......

No way that's happening.   Traded maybe yes.   Another team can have the pleasure to sign him or take him to arbitration. 

[D.B Cooper]

So, we now have 3 loses before we are officially out of the playoffs.  
It’s not going to happen. 
We can’t even win the 1st period most of the time, let alone going on an epic run.  
If Miller doesn’t produce, we dont win.  
 

Boeser……… wtf?      I would be pissed if his contract was more than 4.5-5mill. 
He is hot garbage.

He HAS to have like 4 injuries. 
His shot is gone, and holy balls he is slow.  He skates like he is 400lbs.  
 

Garland.    
His hot dogging cost us the game.   
That ridiculous penalty cost us any momentum, and his give away was directly responsible for the game winning goal.  
Maybe try to use your linemates instead of that dumb one man cycle followed by a shot from an impossible angle.  
What a joke. 
 

I’ll still be watching the games and having fun, but it’s time to start hoping for losses. 
It’s awesome it took until the end of March for the tank to kick in for me, but it’s here.  
 

[IBatch]

13 minutes ago, D.B Cooper said:

So, we now have 3 loses before we are officially out of the playoffs.  
It’s not going to happen. 
We can’t even win the 1st period most of the time, let alone going on an epic run.  
If Miller doesn’t produce, we dont win.  
 

Boeser……… wtf?      I would be pissed if his contract was more than 4.5-5mill. 
He is hot garbage.

He HAS to have like 4 injuries. 
His shot is gone, and holy balls he is slow.  He skates like he is 400lbs.  
 

Garland.    
His hot dogging cost us the game.   
That ridiculous penalty cost us any momentum, and his give away was directly responsible for the game winning goal.  
Maybe try to use your linemates instead of that dumb one man cycle followed by a shot from an impossible angle.  
What a joke. 
 

I’ll still be watching the games and having fun, but it’s time to start hoping for losses. 
It’s awesome it took until the end of March for the tank to kick in for me, but it’s here.  
 

The tank won't officially come in until we see Rathbone and a few others "rested" and a few others "coming up from Abby"...but based on Allvins comments about Lockwood and Rathbone getting games down the stretch you can bet they were anticipating this.   They know the odds were slim - as did we.    Won't be a tank because well the team isn't that terrible either.   Might as well enjoy the games, and Miller/QHs seasons (will QHs break Lidsters record?!) ... and i'm already looking at the draft.   But nothing below 10 because don't see that happening either.

 

Edit: One other thing of note will be can Bruce keep the team's winning percentage up until it's over?   Bruce-Miller-QHs are the big stories so far this season.  Demko too. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by IBatch

[JM_]

51 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Then fans will freak if the team let's him walk......

thats not going to happen, no one is walking. I'd expect arbitration if something reasonable can't be worked out. 

[JM_]

1 hour ago, DrJockitch said:

This was a really tough road trip and 2-1-1 is really good.  Still pretty much buries our playoff chances but is still impressive.  
This team has been playing every game like a playoff game for months, but unlike the playoffs where you only need to win 4/7 they have needed to win 5-6/7. I think they are probably just drained physically and mentally. Have to be up for every game, having every game be a must win would wear you down quickly. 
Time to get Rathbone and Lockwood some games, hopefully sign a college FA or two to get in the lineup. 
Abbotsford is going to the playoffs at least. 

it is. That Green start to the year was always going to be hard to get over. 3 more wins under that Green coaching staff and we're still right in the middle of this, thats how close things are. 

[Alflives]

We stunk it up bad last night.  Blues are playing bad too.  Embarrassing loss.  It’s over.  Play youth more.  Could have offered McDonough games to assure he signs.  Lost that chance and lost him.  All for this attempt to fill seats for some facade of a playoff battle down the stretch.  Just more of the sacrifice a better future for an average now.  

[IBatch]

5 minutes ago, JM_ said:

thats not going to happen, no one is walking. I'd expect arbitration if something reasonable can't be worked out. 

Yes.  I'd be surprised really, if Brock doesn't sign a reasonable deal.   One that's also tradeable.   He'd be taking a big risk going to arbitration and leaving money on the table.   Plus he's already been through what happens with a late signing.   Made a lot of money already, but these legacy deals set up his grandkids and even their kids for life.   Having already gone through some major injuries, he knows what could happen over time..   I'm still hoping it's 25-27 over 4/5 years.   Feel that's exactly the range he's earned.   What he needs to weigh is one or two years of a mediated deal that's 100% not going in his favour ... for less then half that - plus whatever he might get as a UFA.   Loyalty to the club that drafted him and his mates play some part in that as well. Think this is a pretty tight knit group.   You can see that in practices and during the games.    Don't know why he'd not want to be part of that.    Character guy. It also helps with QHs/Demko window.   There is also the possibility of a bigger money deal - in the 45-50  range on an 8 year deal.   Both would work for the team and the player.    Brock would be betting on himself if he took the mediation to free agency - and in that case i don't see him part of our long term plans anymore. 

[mikeyman109]

Tough loss for sure. That was one of the worst periods of hockey we played in a while. Our starts have to improve.

11-3 seems unrealistic but the games we cannot lose are to VGK Dallas and Edmonton. Have to win those to have any chance.

 

On Brock, I would hope they can do one of two things. either sign and trade him or sign him to a deal that makes sense cap wise. Hes not a useless player as some have suggested but as an asset he is declining with his lack of production. For 7.5 Million in cap space could we afford to just let him walk and use the 7.5 Million to sign a better D man. I mean really would we lose that much by him going to free agency? I know its unconventional to think that way and the Brock backers will scream bloody murder but if we cant get him under contract at a more reasonable amount how bad would it be to let him walk? Just thinking out of the box, is there a D man we value more than what BB brings out there this year in free agency?

[IBatch]

3 minutes ago, mikeyman109 said:

Tough loss for sure. That was one of the worst periods of hockey we played in a while. Our starts have to improve.

11-3 seems unrealistic but the games we cannot lose are to VGK Dallas and Edmonton. Have to win those to have any chance.

 

On Brock, I would hope they can do one of two things. either sign and trade him or sign him to a deal that makes sense cap wise. Hes not a useless player as some have suggested but as an asset he is declining with his lack of production. For 7.5 Million in cap space could we afford to just let him walk and use the 7.5 Million to sign a better D man. I mean really would we lose that much by him going to free agency? I know its unconventional to think that way and the Brock backers will scream bloody murder but if we cant get him under contract at a more reasonable amount how bad would it be to let him walk? Just thinking out of the box, is there a D man we value more than what BB brings out there this year in free agency?

Maybe Manson.   I'd consider that but you know we'd be overpaying most likely.  
 

Edit:  And we wouldn't let him walk. We'd offer him a deal  ... if he doesn't like it - he takes the team to arbitration - we sign him for one or two years - and then trade him for what we do want with retention possibly if needed.   Brock is still 100% under our control for two more years in that case. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by IBatch

[mikeyman109]

Just now, IBatch said:

Maybe Manson.   I'd consider that but you know we'd be overpaying most likely.  

wouldnt 7.5 for Brock be an over payment as well? I know we need to keep the asset and do what we can with him but Brock leaving might not hurt our production that much up front.

Everyone is talking about trading him for a D man but if you can get a D man you like for the salary you would lose isnt it the same thing?

[JM_]

5 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Yes.  I'd be surprised really, if Brock doesn't sign a reasonable deal.   One that's also tradeable.   He'd be taking a big risk going to arbitration and leaving money on the table.   Plus he's already been through what happens with a late signing.   Made a lot of money already, but these legacy deals set up his grandkids and even their kids for life.   Having already gone through some major injuries, he knows what could happen over time..   I'm still hoping it's 25-27 over 4/5 years.   Feel that's exactly the range he's earned.   What he needs to weigh is one or two years of a mediated deal that's 100% not going in his favour ... for less then half that - plus whatever he might get as a UFA.   Loyalty to the club that drafted him and his mates play some part in that as well. Think this is a pretty tight knit group.   You can see that in practices and during the games.    Don't know why he'd not want to be part of that.    Character guy. It also helps with QHs/Demko window.   There is also the possibility of a bigger money deal - in the 45-50  range on an 8 year deal.   Both would work for the team and the player.    Brock would be betting on himself if he took the mediation to free agency - and in that case i don't see him part of our long term plans anymore. 

I mean he should. If his agent really wants to stick us with that one time QO I guess he can, but it just hurts Brock future imo. 

 

There's also the risk that the team elects arbitration once the cup is awarded, there's a window right after that for team elected arbitration. If Brock's agent won't budge off the QO thats what I'd do. Yes Brock could elect a 2 year settlement and walk to UFA, but he's also then cost controlled at something very likely under his QO and more tradable imo. I'd hate to see it go this way, but its not all up to Rutherford if Brock's agent won't budge. 

[IBatch]

1 minute ago, mikeyman109 said:

wouldnt 7.5 for Brock be an over payment as well? I know we need to keep the asset and do what we can with him but Brock leaving might not hurt our production that much up front.

Everyone is talking about trading him for a D man but if you can get a D man you like for the salary you would lose isnt it the same thing?

6.375 is what he'd get if he won't sign a reasonable deal.   

[qwijibo]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

What will happen with Brock is pretty simple.   He will be offered a deal that's on par with his comps.   That's it.   If the agent doesn't like it - and or Brock, then they can take the team to arbitration.   The mediator then decides, and it will be a one or two year deal at 85% of his 7.5 QO... nobody thinks he's earned it.   Look what Debrusk just got too...sure Brocks got better stats and pedigree ... so expect 6.375 x 1 or two years IF they can't make a deal.    To me his "deal" should be in the 25-27 million range.  Because well that's fair.   4/5 years that's it.   Teams not giving Brock a 7-8 year deal.   Neither is anyone else.   Too much risk.   Only way Brock is getting something like that is if he has two career years in a row after this one. 

That’s not how it works though.  Because of the qualifying offer Boeser has no need to take the team to arbitration.  The team is required to offer him his $7.5m to retain his rights.  If they don’t feel he’s worth that they have 3 options.
 

Negotiate a deal with him for less than that.  any deal would likely include term and money over $6m.  There’s no incentive for him to accept less.   If he doesn’t like the deal he can just dig in his heels on the QO. That guarantee’s him $7.5m  for each of the next 2 seasons (assuming the same outcome next summer) and then UFA status. He doesn’t have to elect arbitration to get that.  
 

If the team doesn’t want to qualify him at the QO THEY can take him to arbitration. A player can only be subjected to team elected  arbitration once in his career.  The arbitrator could award an amount as low as $6.35m but Boeser would choose between 1-2 years. He’d likely choose 2 years and walk to free agency. 
 

Or the team can simply not qualify him and he becomes UFA.  

 

There’s really no option where the team holds the hammer in forcing him to take a deal he’s not happy with.  He’s a young professional athlete. I’m sure he’s not happy with his season but I’d bet he’s more than willing to bet on himself, take the guaranteed $15m for the next 2 seasons and prove he’s worth it over that time.  
 

His AAV is already $5.875m (with just actual salary being $7.5m this year). Anyone expecting him to take less than $5.85m, even with term, is likely going to be disappointed 
 

 

[mikeyman109]

2 minutes ago, IBatch said:

6.375 is what he'd get if he won't sign a reasonable deal.   

well I dont think he has played to that salary so again i ask if you got a D man you liked at 5 mill and let him walk isnt that the same as a trade straight across?

[IBatch]

1 minute ago, JM_ said:

I mean he should. If his agent really wants to stick us with that one time QO I guess he can, but it just hurts Brock future imo. 

 

There's also the risk that the team elects arbitration once the cup is awarded, there's a window right after that for team elected arbitration. If Brock's agent won't budge off the QO thats what I'd do. Yes Brock could elect a 2 year settlement and walk to UFA, but he's also then cost controlled at something very likely under his QO and more tradable imo. I'd hate to see it go this way, but its not all up to Rutherford if Brock's agent won't budge. 

Yes if he won't accept a reasonable offer (Brock can sign for anything) then he'd elect for arbitration - not the club - although the club could ask for that too. It's 85% of 7.5 as the bottom and i'd say that's all he's doing to get based on his comps.    He'd be leaving a whole lot of money on the table.   I'm not that worried at all about Brock other then what we may or may not get in a trade.   His value is low right now.  

[ShawnAntoski]

10 hours ago, RU SERIOUS said:

...just another end to a year of Jim Benning and green concocted hockey.   Hopefully JR can speed-up the de-construction of this team so this is the last time we see this sort of finish.  I don't know about you, but I'm ready for a change!

Yeah, tired of watching the same movie and hearing the same reasons - don't even want to mention there name. The new crew seems to have more situational awareness: kept the teams 1st round pick and added a serviceable third pairing D, for a third round pick.  

Edited March 29, 2022 by ShawnAntoski

[Nucker 67]

"shoulder shrug" Boeser should be traded for a RD. 

 

Miller is almost 30 and some games looks like he's 40. Real good player, but not the future IMO.  Get a haul of young players and picks.

[JM_]

4 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Yes if he won't accept a reasonable offer (Brock can sign for anything) then he'd elect for arbitration - not the club - although the club could ask for that too. It's 85% of 7.5 as the bottom and i'd say that's all he's doing to get based on his comps.    He'd be leaving a whole lot of money on the table.   I'm not that worried at all about Brock other then what we may or may not get in a trade.   His value is low right now.  

with the team elected arb though, they can choose that option prior to having to offer the QO, correct?