The Contending Window for this team is the next 4 years and planning should be for that period

[IBatch]

11 minutes ago, stawns said:

Zib got 8 years, as did Hertl.  Someone will give it to him

Age.  Expiring at 36 is palatable. 

 

The other thing is if Miller wants to win a cup, he's going to have to find an up and coming team with cap space, if it's just for the money then yes i suppose maybe he finds a sucker - that sucker likely has lots of cap space and well, his talents will be wasted like ARI.   Sure teams can make a trade to fit him in so it's possible - but it won't be COL, or TB, of FLD or Vegas etc.   Boston maybe.   Bergeron has one more year left i think.   Sigh.   Miller does fit with our team too.    But id saying no to a 7-8 deal is probably in our best interest.    A five year deal maybe six ok. 

Edited April 24, 2022 by IBatch

[Alflives]

6 minutes ago, IBatch said:

That's a little silly though given his age.   A deal could be done front loaded - the future value of cash is always a big advantage, it's also easier to move later. The only player i can think of recently that got a term deal at his age was Alex P... he was a proven guy - his entire career, a cup winner - and most importantly he's a RHD - or defenseman.  Who often have their best seasons in their early 30's.    Forwards don't.   Unless the cap hit is spread out at its something like 6.5 x 8 years, I just don't see this deal happening.   He won't make that on the open market.   Wonder what Kadri will get.   Sure if he was 27/28 yes.   Look at Tavares.    That was his age ... and how he's doing now.   He's regressing.  

I agree that signing Miller to over 6 years is not smart.  But when our wants, he gets.  I’m hoping JR gets to set the future for our team without the owner’s whispers.  But the history of our owner suggests otherwise.  Just look at his tweets over the last couple months.  

From our top minute guys we should be moving out Miller, and Myers for sure.  And one of Boeser or Garland.  

I just don’t see our owner allowing a Miller move.  And would moving Myers, Bess/Gar causing a step back?

[IBatch]

5 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I agree that signing Miller to over 6 years is not smart.  But when our wants, he gets.  I’m hoping JR gets to set the future for our team without the owner’s whispers.  But the history of our owner suggests otherwise.  Just look at his tweets over the last couple months.  

From our top minute guys we should be moving out Miller, and Myers for sure.  And one of Boeser or Garland.  

I just don’t see our owner allowing a Miller move.  And would moving Myers, Bess/Gar causing a step back?

Team likely has to move on from one.   But doesn't need to do it next season. 

[BPA]

59 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Would be if Miller was 52 and I'm trying to see who else has done that.  

 

I really don't get why this is so hard to grasp for some people. 

 

Miller isn't 25.  He's 29.  I wanted to see how many other 29 or 30 year olds finished top 25 in scoring, then see what happened after that.  And that is illogical for you guys 

 

And just for the record, I'm not here stating Miller will be a 90pt player at 38.  That's NEVER what I said.  Just in case that's what all of you are getting stuck on.  In my thread, I stated we could realistically expect him to be a 0.6ppg player, and likely retire by 37 or 38.

 

Henrik Sedin comes to mind.  I just posted his stats the other day.  
 

He got 100+ pts at age 30.  Then 90+ pts next season.  Then a steady decline to 50pts when he retired at 38.

 

IF using Henrik as a guide, then you can expect at least 2-3 yes of good production from Miller (at whatever his AAV will be) and then a steady decline thereafter (where his high cap hit will be not good for the team for however long is left on the contract).

[HKSR]

5 minutes ago, BPA said:

Henrik Sedin comes to mind.  I just posted his stats the other day.  
 

He got 100+ pts at age 30.  Then 90+ pts next season.  Then a steady decline to 50pts when he retired at 38.

 

IF using Henrik as a guide, then you can expect at least 2-3 yes of good production from Miller (at whatever his AAV will be) and then a steady decline thereafter (where his high cap hit will be not good for the team for however long is left on the contract).

Yeah I don't disagree with that.  I did a whole thread on it to see what we could possibly expect at ages 36 to 38.  0.6ppg seems to be the average by age 36, and I'd say 95% of the players retire by age 37 or 38.  So there's a good chance we get 2 or 3 solid years out of Miller, a couple declining seasons, then he will be in that 36yo range.  I really highly doubt he'd still be on our books at 38yo.

 

[HKSR]

42 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Team likely has to move on from one.   But doesn't need to do it next season. 

Boeser.  He just doesn't fit the playstyle here anymore.  Will he end up being a 40 goal scorer somewhere else? Possibly.  But I wouldn't bank on that happening here.

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Yeah I don't disagree with that.  I did a whole thread on it to see what we could possibly expect at ages 36 to 38.  0.6ppg seems to be the average by age 36, and I'd say 95% of the players retire by age 37 or 38.  So there's a good chance we get 2 or 3 solid years out of Miller, a couple declining seasons, then he will be in that 36yo range.  I really highly doubt he'd still be on our books at 38yo.

 

If we sign JT to 8 years how is he not on our books (8.5 cap hit) at ages 37 and 38?  

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

Boeser.  He just doesn't fit the playstyle here anymore.  Will he end up being a 40 goal scorer somewhere else? Possibly.  But I wouldn't bank on that happening here.

Does moving out Boeser mean much though?  He has very little if any value if it’s cap room we are trying to create.  We don’t want another contract coming back for him.  

Myers needs to go too, if we can.  

[HKSR]

6 minutes ago, Alflives said:

If we sign JT to 8 years how is he not on our books (8.5 cap hit) at ages 37 and 38?  

Likely retirement.  How many guys play until 37 or 38?

[JM_]

On 4/22/2022 at 10:48 PM, *Buzzsaw* said:

I am seeing a lot of posters talking about trading away huge parts of the team in the off season and suggesting we should be building for 5-7 years away.

 

I completely disagree.

 

This team was wasted for the last two years under Green.  He should have been gone in 2020. 

 

They would have been in the playoffs under a competent coach... they completely underachieved under Green.  Management has wasted two years when the team should have been gaining valuable playoff experience.

 

Depressing when you think of it that way, but there is a bright side... this team should surprise a lot of pundits next year.

 

Assuming Boudreau is here next year, I think getting into the playoffs should be a slam dunk... in fact I would expect them to place 2nd or 3rd in the division... (assuming we get some defensive additions in the off season!!!)

 

If you look at the personnel, all the key top six offensive players will be moving into the peak career age years of 24-32 in the next four years. 

 

Horvat - age is 28-31 over the 4 year span

Miller -  30-33

Pettersson -  24-27

Boeser -  25-28

Podkolzin -  21-24

Garland -  26 - 29

 

Miller would be 33, but his birthday is March 15, he has just turned 29, so most of the year he is younger... and 33 is still an age when a player, while he might not have a career season, has all the veteran savvy which is key in the playoffs.  Garland also has a March birthday.  Boeser's is in February.  Podz is younger than optimum, but this year has shown he is maturing faster than most power forwards... I think he will be playoff ready starting next year.  His birthday is in November at the start of the season.

 

Defense is not as optimal when you look at ages... but we already know there is a need to add bigger, younger D... to complement Hughes.  Hughes birthday is October 14 at the start of the season, so next year he is 24 nearly all year.  Myers is 32... his birthday his halfway through the season in February.  But D can play effectively later than forwards... they depend more on endurance and power, slow twitch muscle response rather than fast twitch.  So they can often play effectively till they are 34 or even 35.  Schenn is the worst case... his birthday is in November, so next year he is 33 most of the year.  But as mentioned, as our #1 priority we need a replacement for him on the Hughes pairing... Schenn should ideally be playing the 5/6.

 

Hughes -  24-27

Myers -  32-35

OEL -  31-34

Schenn -  33-36

 

The other younger D which are already in the roster are not likely key to the team's future plans... they will be 6/7's.  Of those Dermott and Burroughs could fill those roles.  The role of Poolman is a big question mark.  If he gets some decent coaching under Boudreau can his career be resurrected?  He does have the size the team needs.  If he could pair effectively with Schenn in the 5/6, then suddenly the team looks better.  I do not think he can fill the role as Hughes' partner.

 

The missing piece is the #2 D to pair with Hughes... which has be someone who is big, decently mobile and with a good shot... but someone who like Schenn focuses on being the D in that 1/2 pairing.

 

Finally we need to look at goaltending.  Yes, goalies play well into their mid '30's, but typically they have their career years between 28-31.

 

Thatcher Demko is 26, his birthday is in December, most of next year he will be 27.  He is the team's franchise goalie... in fact, he may be the team's franchise player.

 

Goalies of the caliber of Demko do not fall off trees... look at the problems Edmonton, Calgary, (before Markstrom) and many other teams have trying to find the backstopper who will take them deep into the playoffs.

 

Canucks management need to plan around what are likely to be Demko's best years.

 

I think as mentioned, the key to improving this team into a real contender is finding a big, physical, defensively skilled, young D to complement Hughes.  This does not have to be a #1 D... we already have our #1 in Hughes.  But that first D pairing, which is currently Myers/OEL, will inevitably change as they age to another pairing, one of whom will be Hughes, and one of which will be someone the team acquires. 

 

Canucks management need to set as their priority acquiring that D.

 

That may mean trading away one of the team's offensive assets... (absolutely not Petey or Podz and hopefully not Miller)  Or maybe they can find a nugget in free agent signings, (has to be a bargain though) or in another team's discards, or in Europe?

 

There are other parts which the team needs... they do not have a good 3rd line.... right now the current third line of Lamikko/Highmore/Lockwood is actually what should be next year's 4th line.  The current 4th line will probably see Richardson leave due to age... Pearson should be back and can slot into the third.  Maybe Nils Hoglander can come back and fill a spot on the third... he clearly was injured this year and hopefully will be better.  I don't see Petan there... hasn't shown the scoring finish and doesn't have the physical size.  Sheldon Dries is more physical, has speed and is showing flashes, but is a long way off.  Then you have Dickenson and Chiasson... Dickenson would work on the third line if he can continue his improved play under Boudreau... not sure about Chiasson... he is not so good in the third line role... he shines in top six and PP roles... but I don't think he is good enough to slot top six.  Ideally the team signs a big, tough center in the off season who can chip in 10 goals a year and be solid defensively.

 

I think this team is closer than a lot of the fans think.  It has been underachieving, but next year can be the real turnaround. 

 

 

 

 

 

[HKSR]

4 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Does moving out Boeser mean much though?  He has very little if any value if it’s cap room we are trying to create.  We don’t want another contract coming back for him.  

Myers needs to go too, if we can.  

Cap space alone would help a lot.  Would also mean we keep Miller.

[BPA]

Just now, HKSR said:

Likely retirement.  How many guys play until 37 or 38?

So why will Miller give up his money?  Teams cannot majorly front load contracts anymore.

[Gurn]

4 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Likely retirement.  How many guys play until 37 or 38?

How many players have retired before the end of their playing contract?

I'm thinking there have been a few, but Marcus Naslund is the only one I know of for sure.

[HKSR]

Just now, gurn said:

How many players have retired before the end of their playing contract?

I'm thinking there have been a few, but Marcus Naslund is the only one I know of for sure.

That'll be hard to research.... I'll see if I have time at work on Monday lol.  It happens though.  

[HKSR]

6 minutes ago, BPA said:

So why will Miller give up his money?  Teams cannot majorly front load contracts anymore.

Which I find interesting... how many guys actually get contracts that bring them into ages 37 or 38?  Maybe we do see a 6 year deal for Miller?

[Elias Pettersson]

2 hours ago, gurn said:

Are examples of players that played well, into their mid thirties, really relevant if they are mostly players from 20 years ago?

Game has changed a bit, speed has changed a lot, skill level has changed a lot.

Joe Pavelski is currently still playing at a point a game pace at age 38. 

[IBatch]

51 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Does moving out Boeser mean much though?  He has very little if any value if it’s cap room we are trying to create.  We don’t want another contract coming back for him.  

Myers needs to go too, if we can.  

Who's replacing Myers? 

[Elias Pettersson]

Just now, IBatch said:

Who's replacing Myers? 

Josh Manson. 

[IBatch]

45 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Which I find interesting... how many guys actually get contracts that bring them into ages 37 or 38?  Maybe we do see a 6 year deal for Miller?

 

Thanks that someone else finally noticed that.   It only happens with bona-fide top tier guys - and even then not very often.   The guys that actually managed great things past 33/34 were mostly NOT on long term deals or just finishing theirs up.    Nobody is going to give Miller 8.5-9 x 7 or for us 8 years.   Nobody.   IF Miller wants to go to market so be it.    He won't get a ridiculous 7-8 year deal from us. 

Edited April 24, 2022 by IBatch

[mikeyman109]

On 4/23/2022 at 8:43 AM, Fanuck said:

Demko covers up so many deficiencies on this club its hard to fathom that some people think we need a few minor moves here/there to be truly competitive - and what deficiencies Demko doesn't cover up, BB's experience has helped hide the rest of our issues.   That's not a sustainable model and I can only hope Allvin/JR see this because clearly a lot of people don't. 

I think Demko plays to his part in the mix we need to have success. Last time i checked the goalie is part of the team. Markstrom did it before him and so did Luongo.

The success will come if we can build on that. Hughes is a key piece. we need to gather a few more players that can Play defensively from the back end. OEL is Hughes Lite.

Myers can be effective but at 6 Million he has to play stellar or we are using cap dollars unwisely. Schenn has been the one player out playing his contract at the back end.

Poolman, Hunt  wasted dollars and wouldnt upset me if they didnt see the ice for us again.

Deficiencies up front, well size with skill is an issue Too  many players on this team either are small, Dries, Lockwood, Petan,Hoglander, Garland, or play small, Boeser, Dickinson

and if Petan never played for us again I would be ok with that. He is a career AHL player like Reid Boucher.

The support players are what will determine our success going forward. Miler is at 93 points this season and Petey may get there in the next couple as well. we have the core players, we need to surround them with great depth players to be competitive for the cup. The future is bright but we do need some adjustments for sure.