2023 NHL Entry Draft

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

No Michkov in the top-5? Someone has to fall, I think Michkov and Benson will, but probably not that much, whereas everyone will lap up Will Smith and Dvorsky will go higher than expected.

 

I wonder what it would take for Allvin to jump up and snag Carlsson? He's getting forgotten about a lot with Bedard, Fantilli having a massive year and now Smith and Dvorsky looking good in the world juniors. Carlsson literally put up 0.5PPG in the Swedish top league and was a beast in the playoffs - 9 points in 13 games. That's almost NHL level 3rd line production from a kid, you could argue 2nd line on the bottom feeders. He must be one of the most NHL-ready players in the draft so could almost step right into the NHL.

 

Is there a deal to be made with SJS or CBJ for their pick? What would it take to move up a few spots? Is Raty + 11OA + Rathbone enough for the Leo Carlsson?

Would be great to move up and get Carlsson. He’d have to drop out of the top five for us to be able to afford the cost though. 

[HighOnHockey]

14 hours ago, hammertime said:

Yes I hear you the flip side of the coin is that OCT - DEC kids are unfairly represented through your lens. 

It's not my lens. It's just the way it is. You can factor in differences in birth months after. Get the year right first.

[hammertime]

If we can agree that the least advantageous birthdays in hockey are Oct-Dec as they are the youngest players on their teams growing up, and the most advantageous are Jan to March as they will be the oldest. If we look at the 1st round of this draft.

 

Birthdays Oct - Dec

Fantilli

Carlsson

Michkov

Reinbacher

Honzek

This is a high end list but only 5 players made it this far. (Resiliency factor)

HM: Brindley, Zimmer maybe 1sts early 2nds?

 

Birthdays Jan-March

Moore

Cristall

Leonard

Smith

Sale 

Yager

ASP

Wood

Barlow

Heidt

Simashev

Ritchie

But

HM: Gauthier, Perron maybe 1st's early 2nds

 

So literally half of the 1st round is born Jan-March but those 5 Oct-Dec youngsters who persevered could easily be a top 5 in most draft years. Can't say the same about the Jan-March kids. 

 

This is just to say don't handicap the early birthday kids it's been a tough road for them to get here. It's not apples to apples when you compare a kid born in November to one born in January the January baby has been given a much greater chance to succeed their whole life up until the draft being the oldest kid on their teams.

Edited May 9, 2023 by hammertime

[-Vintage Canuck-]

 

[Lonny_Bohonos_14]

The Athletic did a mock draft with their NHL writers making the pick (Paywall) https://theathletic.com/4500204/2023/05/08/nhl-mock-draft-2023-connor-bedard-blackhawks/

 

1. Bedard

2. Fantilli

3. Smith

4. Michkov

5. Carlsson

6. Reinbacher (reasoning is that Arizona also has the #12)

7. Benson

8. Dvorsky

9. Leonard

10. Moore

11. Sandin Pellikka

12. Perrault

13. Wood (imagine him with Tage?)

14. Danielson

15. Yager

16. Barlow

[Elias Pettersson]

5 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

I'm a bit weary of drafting for size ever since Virtanen, but to be honest it goes back to even Pat White and beyond. So many guys with "grit" or "size" who get drafted high end up being busts. I know Wood looks good and has scored some clutch goals, PPG in the NCAA and had a massive tournie recently, but he's mainly been playing wing as well.

 

If all the top guys are gone and we're left with a decision between Wood, Danielson and Yager or Barlow, then I'd lean towards Wood, but hopefully someone (even Moore) is still around at 11. Otherwise, do we take Wood or trade down and try to take a flyer on a couple of defencemen in the late 1st/early 2nd?

Linden, Neely and Bertuzzi seemed to work out okay. Not every player with size is going to bust. 

[stawns]

Just now, Elias Pettersson said:

Linden, Neely and Bertuzzi seemed to work out okay. Not every player with size is going to bust. 

you can't compare an older era to a current one.  No one should ever draft "for size" anymore.  In an era where physical play is an afterthought, speed, agility and quickness is the name of the game, and if you draft a bigger player, they better be able to move or they aren't going to last very long in the league

[hammertime]

16 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Linden, Neely and Bertuzzi seemed to work out okay. Not every player with size is going to bust. 

I think whats important especially for us since we aren't exactly a fast team is when we are looking to add size we are also getting a player who will push the pace and drive the play through the middle.

 

 Look no further than Jonah Gadjovich who filled the net in JRs  

Edited May 9, 2023 by hammertime

[Elias Pettersson]

12 minutes ago, stawns said:

you can't compare an older era to a current one.  No one should ever draft "for size" anymore.  In an era where physical play is an afterthought, speed, agility and quickness is the name of the game, and if you draft a bigger player, they better be able to move or they aren't going to last very long in the league

I disagree. PLD is a force. I’d take him over Ehlers and Cole Perfetti. Montreal took size last year. It still matters. Even Tocchet talked about wanting to get bigger. I’m old enough to remember when Ryan Reaves destroyed Colorado all by himself. That wasn’t too long ago was it?  
 

Size isn’t as important as it used to be but you are not winning the cup with 18 smurfs in your lineup. 

[stawns]

3 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I disagree. PLD is a force. I’d take him over Ehlers and Cole Perfetti. Montreal took size last year. It still matters. Even Tocchet talked about wanting to get bigger. I’m old enough to remember when Ryan Reaves destroyed Colorado all by himself. That wasn’t too long ago was it?  
 

Size isn’t as important as it used to be but you are not winning the cup with 18 smurfs in your lineup. 

PLD is a forcxe, I agree, because he's fast, quick and agile.......the size is a bonus.

[Elias Pettersson]

13 minutes ago, hammertime said:

I think whats important especially for us since we aren't exactly a fast team is when we are looking to add size we are also getting a player who will push the pace and drive the play through the middle.

 

 Look no further than Jonah Gadjovich who filled the net in JRs  

Gadjovich is a good example of a big hockey player with no hockey IQ and hands of stone. Lived in front of the net to score his goals in junior. You definitely don’t want to draft someone like that. 
 

Nobody is saying that you need to draft a Ryan Reaves type. They obviously have to be able to play. But a guy like Wood has a high hockey IQ and silky mitts. I’d take him over a smaller guy any time. Look at Tage Thompson. Would you not take him over Cole Caufield? 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[Elias Pettersson]

3 minutes ago, stawns said:

PLD is a forcxe, I agree, because he's fast, quick and agile.......the size is a bonus.

Of course he can play. Nobody is saying you need to draft the next Ryan Reaves. All big guys can play these days. Nobody is getting drafted in the first round these days who is only big. Nobody. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[stawns]

6 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Of course he can play. Nobody is saying you need to draft the next Ryan Reaves. All big guys can play these days. Nobody is getting drafted in the first round these days who is only big. Nobody. 

Agreed, though I'd shy away from Wood because of his skating skills, or lack thereof

[Devron]

I don’t want Sandin too many last names 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Devron

[DownUndaCanuck]

17 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I disagree. PLD is a force. I’d take him over Ehlers and Cole Perfetti. Montreal took size last year. It still matters. Even Tocchet talked about wanting to get bigger. I’m old enough to remember when Ryan Reaves destroyed Colorado all by himself. That wasn’t too long ago was it?  
 

Size isn’t as important as it used to be but you are not winning the cup with 18 smurfs in your lineup. 

Size is no doubt important, I think on biometrics we're something like the smallest and lightest team in the league, or bottom 3 anyway, and that's quite nuts considering Myers knocks a lot of those averages out of whack.

 

The problem is the skill and speed - does it match up with the frame. Look at a guy like Leo Carlsson, he is going to me a monster in the NHL. He's got a massive frame but is so quick and has NHL-ready hands. I think the problem is that everyone's skill looks great in junior but doesn't continue to develop later on, whereas a lot of purely skilled guys get better and better (say, like Pettersson).

 

I remember when we went hard over Virtanen, not just because of his size but he skated really well and had a wicked shot on the fly in junior. He was gritty, the perfect player, but obviously he never worked out. Without getting into it too much, I think he just didn't have enough of an offensive IQ to match and then he stopped using his body physically, and eventually ran into all the other issues, but it started with poor offensive hockey IQ. 

 

If there's a guy out there with top-end offensive IQ, hands/skill and a big frame then great. Is Wood that guy...ehh I'm not sure. The big guys in this top end of the draft are Fantilli, Carlsson, Dvorsky's pretty heavy, Reinbacher, Wood, Simashev, Honzek and But. No doubt some of those guys are going to be real stars, Carlsson, Fantilli and I'd argue Dvorsky's offensive talent is pretty superior and should be good enough to give them long NHL careers. I'm sure Wood will be decent as well but guys like Honzek and But are a bit riskier.

 

I think say 5 years ago you needed your top guys to be massive. O'Reilly, Kopitar, even Toews and Crosby were pretty physical, strong top line centers who would check the opponent's top players to death. The top defencemen were monsters, guys like Hedman especially just knew how to own a playoff series. Now things are changing towards skill and PPs more and more every day so maybe it's not as important, but I think you need guys scattered throughout your lineup. I'd ideally have a top two way center with top end skill, some skilled top-6 wingers, some gritty guys on a checking 3rd line and a bunch of physical shutdown defencemen in my lineup with one puck moving defenceman. Ironically, we're pretty close with that on the Canucks right now, just missing some mean shutdown defencemen.

[I.Am.Ironman]

The size/skill of Wood is enticing, but for every PLD there are many more Virtanens, Ritchies etc. I was really hoping for Reinbacher because he is exactly what this team needs but he is will be gone, likely to Detroit or St. Louis, by the time we pick.

[DownUndaCanuck]

2 hours ago, Alflives said:

Would be great to move up and get Carlsson. He’d have to drop out of the top five for us to be able to afford the cost though. 

It could happen, everyone seems pretty high on Smith right now and Michkov could and should easily go in the top-4. I doubt Montreal would be stupid enough to move the 5OA but it depends how high they are on Suzuki and Dach to run the center jobs for them. They could certainly use some top young defencemen, and the 11OA could surely be enough to get them one of Reinbacher or ASP who would complement Guhle well. Hoglander + Rathbone + 11OA enough? The new Ballard + Raymond + 1st.

 

If I were Montreal and Leo Carlsson fell into my lap at 5th overall, you take him and run though. He could be a 80-100pt big strong center who could play with Slaf and make a nightmare of a line for opponents.

[Elias Pettersson]

19 minutes ago, stawns said:

Agreed, though I'd shy away from Wood because of his skating skills, or lack thereof

Wood skates like Tage Thompson, who dropped to 26th in his draft year.  He seems to be doing quite well in the NHL.  As a matter of fact, in a draft redo Thompson is going in the top 5 and maybe even ahead of PLD...

 

You don't want to draft Wood because of his skating.  Well, here is the scouting report for Tage Thompson:

 

Tage Thompson Scouting Report: 2016 NHL Draft #29 (lastwordonsports.com)

 

Thompson’s skating is a bit of a work in progress, but isn’t that bad given his size, and the fact he is still adjusting to the growth spurt. His speed is decent, but the first step and acceleration could use a little work.  He could stand to clean up some choppiness in his stride. Thompson could also stand to add core strength as he could improve his balance and be stronger on the puck.

Thompson mainly played right wing with Connecticut, but has the versatility to play centre as he sometimes did with the US NTDP.  With his size and his smarts, he might be able to play centre at the next level, but the question will be if he has the playmaking skills and skating skills to play in the middle. He might be better off as a goal scoring, two way winger.

 

This scouting report could be for Matthew Wood as well.  You just have to change the name and you wouldn't know the difference.  Every team that passes on Matthew Wood is going to seriously regret it.  I hope the Canucks are not one of those teams...

[stawns]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Wood skates like Tage Thompson, who dropped to 26th in his draft year.  He seems to be doing quite well in the NHL.  As a matter of fact, in a draft redo Thompson is going in the top 5 and maybe even ahead of PLD...

 

You don't want to draft Wood because of his skating.  Well, here is the scouting report for Tage Thompson:

 

Tage Thompson Scouting Report: 2016 NHL Draft #29 (lastwordonsports.com)

 

Thompson’s skating is a bit of a work in progress, but isn’t that bad given his size, and the fact he is still adjusting to the growth spurt. His speed is decent, but the first step and acceleration could use a little work.  He could stand to clean up some choppiness in his stride. Thompson could also stand to add core strength as he could improve his balance and be stronger on the puck.

Thompson mainly played right wing with Connecticut, but has the versatility to play centre as he sometimes did with the US NTDP.  With his size and his smarts, he might be able to play centre at the next level, but the question will be if he has the playmaking skills and skating skills to play in the middle. He might be better off as a goal scoring, two way winger.

 

This scouting report could be for Matthew Wood as well.  You just have to change the name and you wouldn't know the difference.  Every team that passes on Matthew Wood is going to seriously regret it.  I hope the Canucks are not one of those teams...

From what I've seen wood is much much slower than TT.  He's noticeably slower than everyone else on the ice

[R3aL]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Wood skates like Tage Thompson, who dropped to 26th in his draft year.  He seems to be doing quite well in the NHL.  As a matter of fact, in a draft redo Thompson is going in the top 5 and maybe even ahead of PLD...

 

You don't want to draft Wood because of his skating.  Well, here is the scouting report for Tage Thompson:

 

Tage Thompson Scouting Report: 2016 NHL Draft #29 (lastwordonsports.com)

 

Thompson’s skating is a bit of a work in progress, but isn’t that bad given his size, and the fact he is still adjusting to the growth spurt. His speed is decent, but the first step and acceleration could use a little work.  He could stand to clean up some choppiness in his stride. Thompson could also stand to add core strength as he could improve his balance and be stronger on the puck.

Thompson mainly played right wing with Connecticut, but has the versatility to play centre as he sometimes did with the US NTDP.  With his size and his smarts, he might be able to play centre at the next level, but the question will be if he has the playmaking skills and skating skills to play in the middle. He might be better off as a goal scoring, two way winger.

 

This scouting report could be for Matthew Wood as well.  You just have to change the name and you wouldn't know the difference.  Every team that passes on Matthew Wood is going to seriously regret it.  I hope the Canucks are not one of those teams...

I think Tage is a fun comparison.

 

i do see wood as a cross between him and rantanen at this stage.

 

And there are some similarities. He is ofc his own unique player and person but I think the lesson is he will be a player that will need patience. And getting selected around 11 would grant him patience that maybe being a higher pick would not. 
 

i do like how adamant Alvin is about they will not be rushing any prospect development. So it makes me confident that if we do select a player like wood is he will be given patience and every opportunity to maximize his chances of reaching his full potential