[Discussion] Kuzmenko Extension

[HKSR]

So one thing that baffles me on here is how so many people think Kuzmenko is gonna sign a 'show me' deal, or a bridge deal.

 

WHY?  WHY ON EARTH WOULD HE DO THAT?

 

Kuzmenko will be 27 years old by the time he signs an extension.  If you were him, and never made any big bucks in the NHL before, would YOU sign a 1 to 3 year deal that transfers ALL of the risk to you?  What if you hit a slump next season?  What if you get injured?  What if, what if, what if?

 

Reality is there is a really good chance that Kuzmenko hits 30 goals and 75 to 80 points this season.  Those are great numbers and puts him easily in the $7M+ AAV range.  As a UFA, I have zero doubt that a team would be more than willing to hand him a $50M deal over 7 years. 

 

I just laugh and cringe when I see people here thinking he will go ahead and put pen to paper on a 3 year deal worth $5M per year lol.  Keep dreaming CDC... keep dreaming.

 

[Coconuts]

 

[Elias Pettersson]

Well Tage Thompson took the money after one good season and now is stuck at just over $7 million for 5 more years.  He is currently a $10 million player, so he probably left at least $20 million on the table.  So I am sure he is pissed at himself.

 

Petey took a bridge deal at $7.35 million for 3 years and bet on himself.  He likely will re-sign in the $11-12 million range on his next deal.  

 

Sure, Kuxy can take the best offer he gets and runs.  He may very well do that.  Or he can bet on himself on a short 1-2 year deal and then go for the retirement contract afterwards when the cap is much higher.

[Rick Blight]

2 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Well Tage Thompson took the money after one good season and now is stuck at just over $7 million for 5 more years.  He is currently a $10 million player, so he probably left at least $20 million on the table.  So I am sure he is pissed at himself.

 

Petey took a bridge deal at $7.35 million for 3 years and bet on himself.  He likely will re-sign in the $11-12 million range on his next deal.  

 

Sure, Kuxy can take the best offer he gets and runs.  He may very well do that.  Or he can bet on himself on a short 1-2 year deal and then go for the retirement contract afterwards when the cap is much higher.

But Tage and Petey were not pending UFA's.

[HKSR]

Just now, Elias Pettersson said:

Well Tage Thompson took the money after one good season and now is stuck at just over $7 million for 5 more years.  He is currently a $10 million player, so he probably left at least $20 million on the table.  So I am sure he is pissed at himself.

 

Petey took a bridge deal at $7.35 million for 3 years and bet on himself.  He likely will re-sign in the $11-12 million range on his next deal.  

 

Sure, Kuxy can take the best offer he gets and runs.  He may very well do that.  Or he can bet on himself on a short 1-2 year deal and then go for the retirement contract afterwards when the cap is much higher.

Petey was 22 years old when he signed that extension.  He has several years to find his game.  If he doesn't at 23, no big deal. 24? Oh well.  25?  Still time.  26?  Getting there, but still time.  Bridge deals for players in their early 20s is much more common.

 

Kuz will be 27.  So he's gonna bet on himself to do what exactly?  Score 40 goals and 90+ points?  That's a huge risk.

[HKSR]

Just now, Rick Blight said:

But Tage and Petey were not pending UFA's.

Thanks.  Forgot to mention that in my reply above

[BCNate]

I'm guessing we re sign him for 1 year @6-7 (after sending Boeser packing).  I don't think he will get what he wants on a long term deal with just one season under his belt.  If he can replicate this type of season, he will get a huge long term deal.

Edited December 15, 2022 by BCNate

[Tinky-Winky]

1000% he wont resign here, he wants to win and win the cup, canucks wont win no cup for awile , alot of things the canucks need to improve before they even have a chance at a cup, projected timeframe would be l like 3-5years from now and they need to actually get into the playoffs first, alteast the leafs do, they just suck once they get there LOL , so ya no way kuz will hang around that long, we all should pray EP40 sticks around

[Fanuck]

In before someone suggests he's taking a 'hometown discount'.......

[Elias Pettersson]

9 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Petey was 22 years old when he signed that extension.  He has several years to find his game.  If he doesn't at 23, no big deal. 24? Oh well.  25?  Still time.  26?  Getting there, but still time.  Bridge deals for players in their early 20s is much more common.

 

Kuz will be 27.  So he's gonna bet on himself to do what exactly?  Score 40 goals and 90+ points?  That's a huge risk.

Kuzmenko is already on pace this year for 39 goals.  So 50 goals isn't out of the question in year 2...

[Coconuts]

9 minutes ago, BCNate said:

I'm guessing we re sign him for 1 year @6-7 (after sending Boeser packing).  I don't think he will get what he wants on a long term deal with just one season under his belt.  If he can replicate this type of season, he will get a huge long term deal.

Why would he take that risk when he could walk to UFA and likely get both money AND term from a team? 

 

If he puts up 65+ points someone will gamble on him.

Edited December 15, 2022 by Coconuts

[Fanuck]

9 minutes ago, BCNate said:

 If he can replicate this type of season, he will get a huge long term deal.

Can't help but think that he'll get a huge longer-term deal after 1 season anyway from some desperate GM.  If GM's have proven anything around the league it's that they have exactly ZERO hesitancy in spending other peoples' money. 

[BCNate]

2 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Why would he take that risk when he could walk to UFA and likely get both money AND term from a team? 

 

If he puts up 65+ points someone will gamble on him.

I don't think he will get anywhere near the term and money he wants based on 1 good season.  If he runs it back, his odds are much better of getting the deal he wants. Playing with EP in his contract year is pretty good place to be.

[Coconuts]

Just now, BCNate said:

I don't think he will get anywhere near the term and money he wants based on 1 good season.  If he runs it back, his odds are much better of getting the deal he wants. Playing with EP in his contract year is pretty good place to be.

Several players have gotten paid off a single year of production, it'll happen again whether it's Kuzmenko or not.

 

Remember David Clarkson putting up 30 with Jersey? 

[Canuck You]

10 minutes ago, x00x said:

1000% he wont resign here, he wants to win and win the cup, canucks wont win no cup for awile , alot of things the canucks need to improve before they even have a chance at a cup, projected timeframe would be l like 3-5years from now and they need to actually get into the playoffs first, alteast the leafs do, they just suck once they get there LOL , so ya no way kuz will hang around that long, we all should pray EP40 sticks around

I've seen the Blues go from bottom feeder to winning the cup..Stop being a typical Nux fan and get behind the team, No one knows who's signing where and what the future holds.

[HKSR]

4 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Kuzmenko is already on pace this year for 39 goals.  So 50 goals isn't out of the question in year 2...

Why would he gamble on that though?  Would you?  An extra 10 goals to hit 50 is a 25% increase in production year over year.  That's a LOT.

[HKSR]

16 minutes ago, BCNate said:

I'm guessing we re sign him for 1 year @6-7 (after sending Boeser packing).  I don't think he will get what he wants on a long term deal with just one season under his belt.  If he can replicate this type of season, he will get a huge long term deal.

If he can sign a 1 year deal with anybody to gamble on himself, why would he take $6M?  Some GM out there would be more than willing to gamble on him for 1 year at $7M or $8M easy.  If it doesn't work out, no big deal.  There's no commitment there.  He's not gonna get lowballed by 32 teams across the league for 1 year of service.  Put simply, there's NO way Kuz will get less than $7M AAV on his extension... whether it's 1 year or 7 years.

[Angry Goose]

Milstein has a good relationship w mgmt.   I doubt there would be much vagueness other than projection based on games played.  If the Canucks are well outside the playoff race and Milstein wants to wait till the off season to talk extension-I think the Canucks will let him know a trade could be a serious option.  But maybe the Canucks are super high on him tho (kuz-EP-Mik is a legit first line and kuz is a great PP option) and decide to wait.

 

Come Jan 1 things will start to get interesting 

[Junkyard Dog]

If he hits 30 goals and 70 points. he is at 7M bare minimum. 

 

I'd be looking to trade him at the trade deadline if he continues his pace. Especially if we are already having to move Bo. 

[BCNate]

2 minutes ago, HKSR said:

If he can sign a 1 year deal with anybody to gamble on himself, why would he take $6M?  Some GM out there would be more than willing to gamble on him for 1 year at $7M or $8M easy.  If it doesn't work out, no big deal.  There's no commitment there.  He's not gonna get lowballed by 32 teams across the league for 1 year of service.  Put simply, there's NO way Kuz will get less than $7M AAV on his extension... whether it's 1 year or 7 years.

Well I did say 6-7.