Carolina - Vancouver Boston - Vancouver Edmonton - Vancouver (Proposals)

[J.I.A.H.N]

Miller .........................................for......................... Kotkaniemi, 2023 - 1st (Car) and 2024 - 2nd (Phili).............................saves us approx 3.5 million per year.........Note 1

 

Boeser(50% retained)................for.........................2023 -1st (Bos), and 2024 - 2nd...........................................................Saves us approx. 3.3 million per year........Note 2

 

Schenn (50% retained)..............for..........................2023 - 2nd and Puljujarvi (50% retained)............................................We take a flyer on RFA Puljujarvi and get a 2nd........Note 3

 

 

Ok..........dismal returns right? Right! Hear me out!

 

So, with the absence of Horvat, Miller, Boeser and Schenn...........we are a pretty sad looking team. But we sink in the standings and get a top 5 pick, and most likely a top 3 pick, and improve our chances of getting Bedard.......which is not the reason for making these proposals. But what it does do is really stocks our cupboards, and allows us to be a bottom feeder again next year, and we do it with a plan, and its intentional. Now both Kotkaniemi and Puljujarvi are reclaimation projects, as Rutherford and Allivin alluded to. Now, I already like Kotkneimi, as he skates with a chip on his shoulder, and if he ever gets it together, he will be a steal. His contract is $4,820,000 for 7 years, and yes it is steep for a 3rd line center now, but as things go up, it probably evens out, and if he does get it together, well bonus! I don't hold out much promise for Puljujarvi, so he gets a 3 month look see, and we let him walk, if nothing shows.....either way, it doesn't hurt at all.

 

Now, Chicago will send us a thank you card for our 2024 2nd, but that is water under the bridge, but we gain a lot of draft capital and also loose some Cap. It doesn't really look all that great from a team building perspective, but getting ride of part of Millers salary, will feel real good, later on when we need that cap.

 

What do we gain?

 

#1. Cap flexibility ( $6,000,000 the first year, then it grows from there. In the end, we gain $11,000,000, with the ability to shed almost all of Kotkaniemi, in a buy out, down the road, if need be, as he is pretty much a $1,000,000 buyout cost per year. (albeit, a first year buyout means 14 years of paying! but I don't see that even being considered to 3 to 4 years, minimum. He is not a right-off at present.

 

#2.  Improved draft position for the next several years

 

#3.  The ability to sign a UFA if needed

 

#4. Boston's 2023 - 1st (32 OA), Carolina's 2023 - 1st (28th OA), Edmonton's 2023-2nd (52nd), Philidelphia's 2024 - 2nd (40th OA), and Boston's 2024 - 2nd (26th OA)

 

This makes a mammoth addition to our addition to our prospect pool and gives us a much better grouping of talent to support Pettersson and Hughes long term. It will be painful, and it will take patience, but in the end, the run will be longer and higher. (This should have been done years ago!)

 

Our 2023 draft picks would look like this in a very strong draft.

 

- Vancouver's 2023 - 1st (3rd OA)            Bedard,........ Fanitilli, Carlsson, ......and Smith are all first line centers, and we should take one!

- NY Islanders 2023 -1st (12th OA)          Reinbacher and Pelikka are both ranked very close together as RHD

- Carolina's 2023 - 1st (28th OA)              Hrabal, Augustine are the 2 best goalies in the draft and are slated as late 1st, early 2nds

- Boston's 2023 - 1st (32nd OA)              Another RHD

- Vancouver's 2023 - 2nd (35th OA)        Another Goalie

- Edmonton's 2023 - 2nd ( 52nd OA)       Another Dman

- Vancouver's 2023 - 3rd (67th OA)         Another forward

 

Now with this much draft pick depth, you can afford to move one to get a better pick (aka move your 28th pick and your 52 pick and get a 24th, if you see something you like) But in any case in a deep draft, this is a no brainer. It would send McKenzie and Button's right off the deep edge.

 

Note to CDC

 

As with all my trades, I am just spit balling, and there may be better trades out there, but in any case getting a possible franchise center, the best or second best Dman in the draft and the best goalie in the draft, amongst others, is a great way to start the rebuild. Also note, if you think this is far fetched and does not happen, go look at Arizona's collection of picks over the next couple of years.

 

It also makes us very flexible in the next 2 years drafts, as we will have lots of draft and prospect capital. (Remember LA's RHD prospects, and how everyone wants one!) It is then, and only after the next 3 drafts do we look at trading a 1st to fill in a hole in our roster. Could you imagine if Benning would have done this 5 years ago?

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

Ehehe.... riiiight.

 

How much cap space does Carolina have?  Oh right - zero.  How much cap space does Boston have?  Oh right - zero.

 

Seriously, what is the thought process with proposals like this?  "Every player has value - therefore we can trade them for first round picks straight up."  What??

[J.I.A.H.N]

53 minutes ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

Ehehe.... riiiight.

 

How much cap space does Carolina have?  Oh right - zero.  How much cap space does Boston have?  Oh right - zero.

 

Seriously, what is the thought process with proposals like this?  "Every player has value - therefore we can trade them for first round picks straight up."  What??

Well, first off, Carolina has Paches on LTIR, so they can add him, any time, as it looks like he could be retiring.........secondly Kotkaneimi contract is not far off of Millers this year, so I am sure we could retain the difference for a sweetener

 

Secondly, Boston will be loosing some major pieces next year, and will have cap available. They could have Craig Smith moved for an approximate savings...................

 

Thirdly..............not all firsts are made equal....I am surprised I have to tell you that, being you are such an expert....even in a deep draft!

 

Fourly...........why are you getting all up in my grill like that..........pretty easy to sit on the sidelines, isn't it!

 

 

Edited February 3, 2023 by J.I.A.H.N

[DownUndaCanuck]

I like the idea of a lot of them, I think we're getting too much value back for the Carolina trade but it depends on how teams view Miller. At 8M I almost see it as an achor/cap dump in the future. Their 1st is quite late so KK + 1st would be enough, or a 2nd round pick, but I doubt we get both. Their forwards could use some help and their top-4 defence is so solid, but their bottom pairing is a weak spot.

 

I'd really like Morrow from there and with all these trades of forwards, we need some defencemen, so I'd tweak it:

 

TO CAR: Miller + Schenn

TO VAN: KK + Morrow + pick (2nd or 3rd?)

 

Next year Staal and Stastny come off the books, plenty of room to keep Miller's 8M extension and re-sign Schenn to a cheap deal if they want and get rid of their bottom pairing guys like De Haan.

 

As for Boeser to Boston, I doubt they'd want him. Any team we trade him to will need to send us cap back. If we're flipping Miller we'll need a center, but there's many options. Boeser 1-for-1 for Dumba, Monahan or Severson works. I think all those 3 players are around the same cap-wise, they're falling out with their teams and likely going to be traded or walk in free agency. They're all mini-projects which Allvin loves. We could go for Monahan and run Petey-Monahan-KK-Lazar down the middle next season...or we could prioritise defence for once in our existence and go for Dumba/Severson, see how they fare the last 20-30 games and re-sign them if they're decent. Whichever way we go, we sign a UFA to fill the other spot in the off-season. For example, say we do Boeser for Monahan and sign Mayfield for 4-5M in the off-season, we're suddenly ready to go:

 

Mikheyev - Pettersson - Kuzmenko

Garland - Monahan - Podkolzin

Hoglander - KK - Aman

Joshua - Lazar - Studnicka

 

Hughes - Mayfield

OEL - Bear

Rathbone - Myers

Dermott

 

We let Raty and Morrow cook

 

Big re-tool rather than a rebuild but keeps us competitive for next season. Take a big edge off our offence but get some strength down the middle again and a bit better defence.

[J.I.A.H.N]

21 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

I like the idea of a lot of them, I think we're getting too much value back for the Carolina trade but it depends on how teams view Miller. At 8M I almost see it as an achor/cap dump in the future. Their 1st is quite late so KK + 1st would be enough, or a 2nd round pick, but I doubt we get both. Their forwards could use some help and their top-4 defence is so solid, but their bottom pairing is a weak spot.

 

I'd really like Morrow from there and with all these trades of forwards, we need some defencemen, so I'd tweak it:

 

TO CAR: Miller + Schenn

TO VAN: KK + Morrow + pick (2nd or 3rd?)

 

Next year Staal and Stastny come off the books, plenty of room to keep Miller's 8M extension and re-sign Schenn to a cheap deal if they want and get rid of their bottom pairing guys like De Haan.

 

As for Boeser to Boston, I doubt they'd want him. Any team we trade him to will need to send us cap back. If we're flipping Miller we'll need a center, but there's many options. Boeser 1-for-1 for Dumba, Monahan or Severson works. I think all those 3 players are around the same cap-wise, they're falling out with their teams and likely going to be traded or walk in free agency. They're all mini-projects which Allvin loves. We could go for Monahan and run Petey-Monahan-KK-Lazar down the middle next season...or we could prioritise defence for once in our existence and go for Dumba/Severson, see how they fare the last 20-30 games and re-sign them if they're decent. Whichever way we go, we sign a UFA to fill the other spot in the off-season. For example, say we do Boeser for Monahan and sign Mayfield for 4-5M in the off-season, we're suddenly ready to go:

 

Mikheyev - Pettersson - Kuzmenko

Garland - Monahan - Podkolzin

Hoglander - KK - Aman

Joshua - Lazar - Studnicka

 

Hughes - Mayfield

OEL - Bear

Rathbone - Myers

Dermott

 

We let Raty and Morrow cook

 

Big re-tool rather than a rebuild but keeps us competitive for next season. Take a big edge off our offence but get some strength down the middle again and a bit better defence.

I would love Morrow, I am not sure they let him go...........

 

As for the Boeser trade.........we are retaining for 2 years..........that is alot!!!!!!!  (Dramatic! Sorry!)

 

IMO....just mine.............those picks are so late they look like the next round almost, so I don't think  they are that bad........

 

Carolina will lose alot of offense next year, so I think Miller replaces some of that. You have to remember that NYR actually thought Miller was worth trading for...........

 

Chytl , Lundqvist and a 1st.......vs..........Kotkinaneimi, a 1st, and a 2nd...............................I would argue that the Ranger package was better, so I don't think it is out of line

 

then you look at the Horvat Package................That 1st is pretty early compared to the Carolina one.........Beau = Kot, and I think Raty is much more than a very late 2nd

 

So, I guess you could be right..........but???????????

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

3 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

Well, first off, Carolina has Paches on LTIR, so they can add him, any time, as it looks like he could be retiring.........secondly Kotkaneimi contract is not far off of Millers this year, so I am sure we could retain the difference for a sweetener

 

Secondly, Boston will be loosing some major pieces next year, and will have cap available. They could have Craig Smith moved for an approximate savings...................

 

Thirdly..............not all firsts are made equal....I am surprised I have to tell you that, being you are such an expert....even in a deep draft!

 

Fourly...........why are you getting all up in my grill like that..........pretty easy to sit on the sidelines, isn't it!

It's because you're not even thinking for one moment how or why Boston/Carolina does this.  Boeser and Miller have terrible contracts.  We cannot gain $8M in cap flexibility by offloading bad contracts without paying a price for it, but you're actually suggesting we can get first round picks for them.  If we could get that many picks for them, don't you think we'd have gotten rid of them first before giving up Horvat?

 

Also, a 1st and a 2nd for Boeser?  Where would he even play?  On the third line RW?  They have Pastrnak and Zacha on the right side already.  Zacha is actually on a very cost-effective contract.  Pastaman is going to have to get PAID this summer - at least $10M per year.  They are not even thinking about wasting a cent of cap space on a $6M third line winger, no less two valuable draft picks.

 

Try making proposals from their perspective first.  As it stands, we are completely FLEECING them with these trades.  They get our trash contracts while we get 2 first rounders, 2 second rounders, and a young second-line centre.  A more realistic trade?  Boeser to MIN for Matt Dumba, with $1.5M retained on both sides.  Dumba likely walks to free agency in July.  We don't get any picks back.

 

 

[hammertime]

I think you're way over valuing quite drastically here Jan. Also I'm all for re build too but I don't think you can just start pulling organs out of the body like this. I think we took a step moving Bo. Schenn and Miller should stay. I think Miller was great for Pod and Schenn's influence on the kids coming up is worth far more than what he would return via trade.  

 

I think we stand pat on these 3 guys. 

 

I honestly think maybe Demko goes. I wouldn't have said that a year ago. I see it 2 ways. If he doesn't regain form after his surgery then we've sold high. If he does we won't be able to bottom out and get that Crosby Malkin. 

[Alflives]

13 minutes ago, hammertime said:

I think you're way over valuing quite drastically here Jan. Also I'm all for re build too but I don't think you can just start pulling organs out of the body like this. I think we took a step moving Bo. Schenn and Miller should stay. I think Miller was great for Pod and Schenn's influence on the kids coming up is worth far more than what he would return via trade.  

 

I think we stand pat on these 3 guys. 

 

I honestly think maybe Demko goes. I wouldn't have said that a year ago. I see it 2 ways. If he doesn't regain form after his surgery then we've sold high. If he does we won't be able to bottom out and get that Crosby Malkin. 

Excellent points. 

[wildcam]

5 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

I would love Morrow, I am not sure they let him go...........

 

As for the Boeser trade.........we are retaining for 2 years..........that is alot!!!!!!!  (Dramatic! Sorry!)

 

IMO....just mine.............those picks are so late they look like the next round almost, so I don't think  they are that bad........

 

Carolina will lose alot of offense next year, so I think Miller replaces some of that. You have to remember that NYR actually thought Miller was worth trading for...........

 

Chytl , Lundqvist and a 1st.......vs..........Kotkinaneimi, a 1st, and a 2nd...............................I would argue that the Ranger package was better, so I don't think it is out of line

 

then you look at the Horvat Package................That 1st is pretty early compared to the Carolina one.........Beau = Kot, and I think Raty is much more than a very late 2nd

 

So, I guess you could be right..........but???????????

I would rather trade and retain money the buy players out.. 

Boeser - I am okay retaining 1.5 million X 2 yrs -- Much easier to trade and get prospect and say 2 nd rounder back

 

Miller - might be tough to move as with Horvat gone we do need him playing #2 centre now ? If there is a great deal to be made yes trade him.. 

Myers - will be traded in summer after his bonus is paid 5 million only 1 million remain for new team trading for him..

Schenn 33 - RD -- have to get return -- 2nd rounder or prospect

 

NYR - Lundqvist was traded in October to Dallas ?

[J.I.A.H.N]

5 hours ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

It's because you're not even thinking for one moment how or why Boston/Carolina does this.  Boeser and Miller have terrible contracts.  We cannot gain $8M in cap flexibility by offloading bad contracts without paying a price for it, but you're actually suggesting we can get first round picks for them.  If we could get that many picks for them, don't you think we'd have gotten rid of them first before giving up Horvat?

 

Also, a 1st and a 2nd for Boeser?  Where would he even play?  On the third line RW?  They have Pastrnak and Zacha on the right side already.  Zacha is actually on a very cost-effective contract.  Pastaman is going to have to get PAID this summer - at least $10M per year.  They are not even thinking about wasting a cent of cap space on a $6M third line winger, no less two valuable draft picks.

 

Try making proposals from their perspective first.  As it stands, we are completely FLEECING them with these trades.  They get our trash contracts while we get 2 first rounders, 2 second rounders, and a young second-line centre.  A more realistic trade?  Boeser to MIN for Matt Dumba, with $1.5M retained on both sides.  Dumba likely walks to free agency in July.  We don't get any picks back.

 

 

I'll take Boeser first............the deal is Boeser at 50%............that is abot $3,325,000. How is that expensive? And his next contract will be production based, as this one was based on the last year of his last contract, so if he does not produce, you are going to see a lesser contract. Secondly, Zacha plays all 3 forward positions, and with Boston having such a  old team, Boeser is a pretty good fit. Let's talk about the picks...........the fact is Boston will have a very late 1st, and many picks in the 28 to 36 OA, have very  similar weight in terms of value. Boeser gets a bum rap here, as he is still a decent hockey player, and may just be on the wrong team. The wrong system, per say. Many players change teams and resume their earlier play sets, as alot of times it is the whole, that is the problem. 

 

Miller.......you know, I have heard that many times, but the NY Rangers were no afraid of it. Miller is a talented player, and still has a miles in the tank. Players like him do not grow on trees, and take assets to acquire. At  a retention of 50%, Miller contract is very affordable at $2,625,000 for the season, which is pretty easy to fit into the cap on TDL, as 60% of the season is gone. Like I said, Carolina has money coming off the books next year, with Staal, Stastny, and most likely Paciorety all coming of the book, one way or another. To stay relavent, they will need to replace some of them. Where do they get them, if not the expensive UFA market or trade. You seem to think that they have Miller type players waiting in the wings. I don't. So they will have to get that talent somewhere. You tell me how and where! At what cost?

 

So, don't be so insulting and tell me I don't know hockey, or values, it is very condescending, and I don't appreciate it. I have been watching hockey well over 50 years, and there are many trades that were huge (Ratelle and Park for Espo and Vadnais), there were many trades that ended up being lop sided ( Pederson for Neely and a 1st ) PS it was, because Pederson had just had arm surgery. ( I know Barry, and he was puzzled by the trade, so???) Yes, along time ago, but history repeats itself. I have seen allstar defensemen being let go because of salary (Hamilton), and I have seen mass walkaways of very good players......Markstrom, Tanev and Toffoli. 

 

PS..I don't mind, a good old fashion debate, and I have been proven wrong before, but this is all fantasy, so just have fun with it. None of these trades are "Fleecing". You are not taking into consideration, the other teams relative reality.

[J.I.A.H.N]

Look at the realtive value of a first OA at 1.00 to a 32nd pick at 0.20, to the 64th pick at 0.12. Now tell me which one is closer in value............

 

1st to 32 has a change of value of approx 0.80, where as 32 to 64 has a change in value of approx 0.08...........not alot of change in the later picks. So no, all picks are not created equal within a round. These  charts are based on success rate of making 200 games/400 games etc and their actual ability with in that 200+ games.....aka a star or a 4th liner. 

 

The funny thing is, you question values, well here is one. The value of the 32 OA pick is 020, and has a probability of making the NHL of about 38%, where as Boeser's probability of making the NHL is 100%

 

 

So ask yourself..........does the 32 pick have a realistic chance of ever becoming Boeser? Sure you can find one, but what are the chances? Even when you add the second pick, the chances are less than actually having a Boeser.

 

@Bob.Loblaw

Edited February 3, 2023 by J.I.A.H.N

[J.I.A.H.N]

PS.my trades in this case are based on team need, and where they are competitively now, vs a team in rebuild trying to get their affairs in order and build a prospect pool

[higgyfan]

I like the Miller to Hurricane trade.

 

The Boston trade is good, but I'd like to add a suggestion.  If the Canucks place Pears + Mik on LTIR ($8m)

they can use it to buy UFA cap dump(s).

 

To Vancouver:  Smith UFA $3.1 + Frederic RFA $1.3

 

The Canucks get their stud 3C  (Beau   Fred   Stud)

 

To Boston:  Brock (50% retained) $3.3m + Schenn $.850 + $3.1m cap dump added to remaining cap $3.25 ($6.35)

 

Boston does this because they have 3 very good Cs, but few RWs.    Top 3 lines look like...

March  Kerjci  Paster

Zacha  Berg  Brock

Hall   Coyle  Foligno

 

Wow!  Bergeron covers for Brock's defensive gaps and Brock scores goals.

 

Forget about helping the Coilers!

[kanucks25]

You might get a 2nd and 3rd for Boeser @ 50%, not the 1st.

[Ted Lasso]

21 hours ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

Ehehe.... riiiight.

 

How much cap space does Carolina have?  Oh right - zero.  How much cap space does Boston have?  Oh right - zero.

 

Seriously, what is the thought process with proposals like this?  "Every player has value - therefore we can trade them for first round picks straight up."  What??

Don’t be this guy..clearly a lot of thought went into the proposal. Do you have a better idea?