Devil's Advocate for the Hronek trade

[danjr]

He is only under obligation to play for us for roughly 100 games.
THAT is not worth a 1st and 2nd round draft pick.

 

No one can say...."but if he signs with us!....."
Because it can just as easily be  "......$#!^, he didn't sign with us!"

[Guest]

1 hour ago, danjr said:

He is only under obligation to play for us for roughly 100 games.
THAT is not worth a 1st and 2nd round draft pick.

 

No one can say...."but if he signs with us!....."
Because it can just as easily be  "......$#!^, he didn't sign with us!"

He is a Restricted Free Agent after his deal expires next year, so we have him under team control.  

 

You don't have to worry about him walking away.  We are extending him or else recouping everything we gave up for him.  

[XxNaslundxX]

Spot on analysis. 

 

I guess it makes it a real hockey trade and not a fleece if we have to look at both sides of the coin. There's no clear winner because it's dependent on a conditional pick that will take time. There's risk every way we cut it. Both with Hronek and the picks we traded

 

Hronek fits right now as a rare piece of the puzzle that will make us better. But would we be better in 4 years having developed the picks?

 

I just wanted that first round pick more because I am unsure about the timing as a franchise. I think we should build more of a prospect pool before trading for the missing pieces. 

[canuck73_3]

9 hours ago, TheQuietQuitter said:

The outrage is understandable.  Fans have the tank mentality and a rebuild on their minds so losing draft picks isn't in their best interest.

 

Management on the other hand fixed a glaring hole in our defense by adding an asset that compliments our core.  A core consisting of Demko, Hughes and Pettersson, in which management believes in.

 

Fans can cheer for this team to lose all they want and continue to stack more disappointment on top of another when we ended up dropping a spot in the draft.

It's ok to not hit the $50 Million grand prize lottery in Bedard, because we've hit on a few max millions already with Pettersson and Hughes.  We have to take the draft wins we get and don't look back.

 

Fans with the tank mentality only have themselves to blame, tank was never an option PA and JR said as much and said it all along.

[stawns]

11 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

I initially hated the fact that we traded away our 2nd and 3rd picks that we were going to have in the top 40 of the 2023 draft.  My big issue was the timing of the deal and why Allvin didn't just wait until the summer to make it.  Just wanted to present a couple of factors that I haven't seen many people mention.   

 

1. How much more perceived value do you think that Yzerman (and fans/media) have placed into the Islanders' 1st round pick now, as opposed to in the summer once the exact pick is settled?  We are still looking at potential of Islanders finishing in the bottom 12 and rolling the pick over to next year when it's unprotected.  

I feel that the allure of the 2024 unprotected pick is overshadowing the most likely outcome. 

2022-23 Islanders' odds to make the playoffs at the moment: 1/3 

If this happens, they're most likely going to be getting the 17th or 18th overall pick.  There is of course a small chance that they reach the Eastern Conference finals in which case they would get 29th or 30th pick overall, or 31st/32nd if they make the Stanley Cup finals. 

Now the most likely scenario (2/3) is that Islanders miss the playoffs and finish 13th to 16th from the bottom.  Just to illustrate what it would take for the Islanders to finish in the bottom 12, I have the point totals of the 12th worst team in the league in the last 5 years: 

2021-22    81 points (32 team league) 

2020-21    55 points in 56 games ---> 80.5 points prorated 

2019-20    78 points in 69 games ---> 92.4 points prorated 

2018-19    84 points in 82 games  

2017-18    84 points in 82 games 

 

Islanders are on a 90 point pace at the moment, but have made a couple of good additions in Horvat and Engvall.  

After taking all this into consideration, I would put the most likely outcome to be 16th overall in 2023.  This is of course far from a guarantee, and presents a big gamble by both Allvin and Yzerman but I think that the allure of the possibility of a 2024 unprotected must've been a motivator to make this deal now as opposed to waiting for the summer.   

 

 

2. The rarity of good right-handed defencemen...  

Why didn't the Canucks wait for this draft to come and go and just suck for a bit longer before pushing to get better?  

This was a very frustrating thought to a lot of fans/media yesterday.  I was really hoping that we would call this season a write off and then try and strike a balance between keeping Petey, Quinn, and Demko happy while accepting being bad next year.  

However real life is not a video game, and some players are simply just not available.  I don't care who you are or what you have, you are not prying Adam Fox, Cale Makar, or Charlie McAvoy from their teams.  They are just not available.  

Sucking for a long time and then acquiring all the players that we need in one season is not feasible/reasonable but it seems to be what everyone expects (including me).  

Sometimes you have to strike while the iron's hot, and Allvin has mentioned that Hronek was targeted by his pro scouting more then a year ago.  The encouraging part of this is that he had a breakout year for the Wings, which would indicate that our pro scouts know what they're talking about.  

25 RHD that is proven in the NHL is a near unicorn these days in trades.  

 

 

Last 24 hours have become a dunking contest between Vancouver media members on our management.  I don't deny the validity of the criticism but I do find the coverage and conversation really one-sided and extremely negative.  

 

Why is it devils advocate, it was a solid deal, it just should have been done 4 months from now

[canuck73_3]

2 minutes ago, stawns said:

Why is it devils advocate, it was a solid deal, it just should have been done 4 months from now

If it is a good deal why wait 4 months and risk losing the deal, waiting is ridiculous. It was a good deal, period.

[stawns]

27 minutes ago, canuck73_3 said:

If it is a good deal why wait 4 months and risk losing the deal, waiting is ridiculous. It was a good deal, period.

Because maybe they could have done better.....either return or what they gave up.  Perhaps they'd get him for the first alone, or perhaps they'd get a different player.  Tye value of those picks would be significantly higher at the draft.

 

[MattWN.]

Even if you perceive the value to be fair, the timing is poor. 

 

We are fighting for a lottery pick, we don't need to be adding pieces to decrease our odds at the draft.

Hronek would have been available in July, and his price most likely wasn't going up.

Depending where NYI pick falls, the value of that pick could rise tremendously. 

I also don't like the fact that we failed to protect ourselves if the NYI falls to an unprotected 2024. 

Would have been nice to see a condition added that protected that pick, at least if it becomes top 5.

All that without even discussing the cost of the player, which by most in the media at least was an overpay.

I don't buy this team being a playoff team next year, even with Demko and Hronek. I guess we'll see.

[canuck73_3]

22 minutes ago, stawns said:

Because maybe they could have done better.....either return or what they gave up.  Perhaps they'd get him for the first alone, or perhaps they'd get a different player.  Tye value of those picks would be significantly higher at the draft.

 

That is wishful thinking at best. The value was fine and the timing is redundant as 4 months from now that deal may not be there at all. If it was a year or more too early you'd have a valid point but 4 months is a nothingburger.

[granpappy]

14 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

Does understanding/appreciating the deal make me an ally with the devil?  I think everyone had sticker shock fwiw, especially since Hronek isn't a big name, I didn't realize how well he was doing. 

 

The timing makes sense. Pettersson is 24, Hronek is 25. A 17 year old defenseman drafted mid/late first round is going to take 2/3 years to make the team never-mind be a legit top 4 on a good team. (I know this sounds like narrative but its true, look at the 2019 & 2020 draft classes for D drafted in the teens & beyond)

 

For context Horvat turned 24 when Elias Pettersson was in his rookie season and look how he apparently didn't line up here age-wise. And that was a 20 year old Pettersson in the NHL, not a 17-18 year old kid just drafted thats years away.

 

People who think the team needs a 4-5 year teardown + rebuild act like they have a crystal ball, but really no one knows where things are going to be in 5 years including with draft picks. The 2011 team wasn't built out of a rebuild & I don't imagine people could've possibly envisioned it during the 05-06 season.

 

it makes sense especially if they unload salary (myers? boesser? garland?) and pick up someone like say gavrikov (millstein is his agent i think and resign schenn. as much as i was looking forward to 2 1st picks and a second pick, petey and hughes are ready right now

[combover]

16 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

I initially hated the fact that we traded away our 2nd and 3rd picks that we were going to have in the top 40 of the 2023 draft.  My big issue was the timing of the deal and why Allvin didn't just wait until the summer to make it.  Just wanted to present a couple of factors that I haven't seen many people mention.   

 

1. How much more perceived value do you think that Yzerman (and fans/media) have placed into the Islanders' 1st round pick now, as opposed to in the summer once the exact pick is settled?  We are still looking at potential of Islanders finishing in the bottom 12 and rolling the pick over to next year when it's unprotected.  

I feel that the allure of the 2024 unprotected pick is overshadowing the most likely outcome. 

2022-23 Islanders' odds to make the playoffs at the moment: 1/3 

If this happens, they're most likely going to be getting the 17th or 18th overall pick.  There is of course a small chance that they reach the Eastern Conference finals in which case they would get 29th or 30th pick overall, or 31st/32nd if they make the Stanley Cup finals. 

Now the most likely scenario (2/3) is that Islanders miss the playoffs and finish 13th to 16th from the bottom.  Just to illustrate what it would take for the Islanders to finish in the bottom 12, I have the point totals of the 12th worst team in the league in the last 5 years: 

2021-22    81 points (32 team league) 

2020-21    55 points in 56 games ---> 80.5 points prorated 

2019-20    78 points in 69 games ---> 92.4 points prorated 

2018-19    84 points in 82 games  

2017-18    84 points in 82 games 

 

Islanders are on a 90 point pace at the moment, but have made a couple of good additions in Horvat and Engvall.  

After taking all this into consideration, I would put the most likely outcome to be 16th overall in 2023.  This is of course far from a guarantee, and presents a big gamble by both Allvin and Yzerman but I think that the allure of the possibility of a 2024 unprotected must've been a motivator to make this deal now as opposed to waiting for the summer.   

 

 

2. The rarity of good right-handed defencemen...  

Why didn't the Canucks wait for this draft to come and go and just suck for a bit longer before pushing to get better?  

This was a very frustrating thought to a lot of fans/media yesterday.  I was really hoping that we would call this season a write off and then try and strike a balance between keeping Petey, Quinn, and Demko happy while accepting being bad next year.  

However real life is not a video game, and some players are simply just not available.  I don't care who you are or what you have, you are not prying Adam Fox, Cale Makar, or Charlie McAvoy from their teams.  They are just not available.  

Sucking for a long time and then acquiring all the players that we need in one season is not feasible/reasonable but it seems to be what everyone expects (including me).  

Sometimes you have to strike while the iron's hot, and Allvin has mentioned that Hronek was targeted by his pro scouting more then a year ago.  The encouraging part of this is that he had a breakout year for the Wings, which would indicate that our pro scouts know what they're talking about.  

25 RHD that is proven in the NHL is a near unicorn these days in trades.  

 

 

Last 24 hours have become a dunking contest between Vancouver media members on our management.  I don't deny the validity of the criticism but I do find the coverage and conversation really one-sided and extremely negative.  

 

I total understand they feel they can add some pieces and we’ll be good to go.I’ve heard that before like when

we  just tried this exact thing gave up a 1st +++
and got us OEL.how’s that  working out.

 

We had an opportunity to stock up and build some depth 

now this trade will cost us even more because we now are screwed for cap space.again.well have 900K when the summer starts

 

Getting the cap under control should have been the top priority 

I know I know we can do that this summer and the draft but our history says otherwise in fact it says the opposite. 
garland boeser Myers aren’t alone Pearson’s coming back possibly poolman. 
 

So now we have no choice to either pay with picks or our very limited prospects to shed cap or even worse buy guys out.and get years of dead cap.

 

the media is dumping on this team because it did the exact opposite of what they’ve been saying since they got here 

“create cap flexibility “ they’ve somehow managed to take very bad situation and make it worse.

 

hronek is under contract for 1 more season then QO of 6.5 (I think)

We traded a 1st 2nd for 1 year of decent contract of a decent defender

 

all the same positive things were said when we signed Myers rhd d top 4 …. and even people justified the OEL trade with the draft pick probability nonsense and offensive D man.ect. 

In the end both were Ill conceived costly short cuts.

we don’t have assets of value to trade because we trade picks leaving only our picks to trade. 
how can we develop a 2nd round hronek or a 28oa AB when we keep trading those picks. 
We haven’t been able to make a trade from a position of strength for over a decade.

 

and once again we have a manager saying” I think this is a playoff team next year” .…I haven’t heard that before.

And just like that it sounds like playoff revenue is the only goal. Again. 

 

This franchise has maxed out its credit card and has got another credit card to make the minimum payments and then acts surprised it can’t get ahead. 

 

we might not  need to do a rebuild we just didn’t need to handcuff ourselves again. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 4, 2023 by combover

[canuck73_3]

2 hours ago, combover said:

I total understand they feel they can add some pieces and we’ll be good to go.I’ve heard that before like when

we  just tried this exact thing gave up a 1st +++
and got us OEL.how’s that  working out.

 

We had an opportunity to stock up and build some depth 

now this trade will cost us even more because we now are screwed for cap space.again.well have 900K when the summer starts

 

Getting the cap under control should have been the top priority 

I know I know we can do that this summer and the draft but our history says otherwise in fact it says the opposite. 
garland boeser Myers aren’t alone Pearson’s coming back possibly poolman. 
 

So now we have no choice to either pay with picks or our very limited prospects to shed cap or even worse buy guys out.and get years of dead cap.

 

the media is dumping on this team because it did the exact opposite of what they’ve been saying since they got here 

“create cap flexibility “ they’ve somehow managed to take very bad situation and make it worse.

 

hronek is under contract for 1 more season then QO of 6.5 (I think)

We traded a 1st 2nd for 1 year of decent contract of a decent defender

 

all the same positive things were said when we signed Myers rhd d top 4 …. and even people justified the OEL trade with the draft pick probability nonsense and offensive D man.ect. 

In the end both were Ill conceived costly short cuts.

we don’t have assets of value to trade because we trade picks leaving only our picks to trade. 
how can we develop a 2nd round hronek or a 28oa AB when we keep trading those picks. 
We haven’t been able to make a trade from a position of strength for over a decade.

 

and once again we have a manager saying” I think this is a playoff team next year” .…I haven’t heard that before.

And just like that it sounds like playoff revenue is the only goal. Again. 

 

This franchise has maxed out its credit card and has got another credit card to make the minimum payments and then acts surprised it can’t get ahead. 

 

we might not  need to do a rebuild we just didn’t need to handcuff ourselves again. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Explain to me how Hronek and OEL are the same type of deal. Because that could not be further from the truth. 

[combover]

10 minutes ago, canuck73_3 said:

Explain to me how Hronek and OEL are the same type of deal. Because that could not be further from the truth. 

we gave  up a first to patch the d with OEL and we put ourselves against the cap with it 

we gave up a first to patch the d with hronek we put ourselves against the cap with it.

 

seems pretty similar to me.

 

most  were pretty happy with the OEL trade at the time saying a lot of the same things people are saying with hronek.

 

It’s not about the player as much as  it’s about the repercussions the deals have. 

pa himself said they misgauged how hard it is to move cap so what did the do. Add more cap. 
 

 

 

 

Edited March 5, 2023 by combover

[canuck73_3]

3 minutes ago, combover said:

we gave  up a first to patch the d with OEL and we put ourselves against the cap with it 

we gave up a first to patch the d with hronek we put ourselves against the cap with it.

 

seems pretty similar to me.

 

most  were pretty happy with the OEL trade at the time saying a lot of the same things people are saying with hronek.

 

It’s not about the player as much as  it’s about the repercussions the deals have. 

 

 

 

 

I never mentioned the picks or the trade. I’m talking the player. It’s not at all the same. 

[combover]

3 minutes ago, canuck73_3 said:

I never mentioned the picks or the trade. I’m talking the player. It’s not at all the same. 

You specially asked how same type of deal. 
 

lol lol.

 

your right there different players ,

 they even have different names

Good job. 

But wait 

both are D both are offensive D men

huh 

both cost a first + 

both put us behind the eight ball with the cap 

 

tell yourself whatever you want.
It’s clear tour excuses don’t even have to make sense. 

 

 

 

[canuck73_3]

1 minute ago, combover said:

You specially asked how same type of deal. 
 

lol lol.

 

your right there different players ,

 they even have different names

Good job. 

But wait 

both are D both are offensive D men

huh 

both cost a first + 

both put us behind the eight ball with the cap 

 

tell yourself whatever you want.
It’s clear tour excuses don’t even have to make sense. 

 

 

 

One is entering his prime, one is exiting. Not the same at all. 

[combover]

10 minutes ago, canuck73_3 said:

One is entering his prime, one is exiting. Not the same at all. 

You can keep saying at you want. 
you can change the fine print as much as you want 

 

Cap strapped after the trades 

Cost  a 1st +

We need cap (even that’s the same) 

 

you keep  altering it to the specifics of what the guy ate for lunch.

 

now it’s  your turn say “it’s not the same” again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[canuck73_3]

6 minutes ago, combover said:

You can keep saying at you want. 
you can change the fine print as much as you want 

 

Cap strapped after the trades 

Cost  a 1st +

We need cap (even that’s the same) 

 

you keep  altering it to the specifics of what the guy ate for lunch.

 

now it’s  your turn say “it’s not the same” again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yawn. Same tired complaints. Cap will get moved in the offseason this move was great. Period. Cope. 

[billabong]

Trading those picks won’t look so bad if they bring a couple college free agents to add to the prospect pipeline

 

the Canucks made the trade NOW because the value of that pick is a mystery right now which is attractive but it’s likely to be 18-22 in this years draft and if that pick is confirmed at 19 let’s say that value won’t net you Hronek and you’ll have other teams bidding to increase the price 

[Guest]

52 minutes ago, billabong said:

Trading those picks won’t look so bad if they bring a couple college free agents to add to the prospect pipeline

 

the Canucks made the trade NOW because the value of that pick is a mystery right now which is attractive but it’s likely to be 18-22 in this years draft and if that pick is confirmed at 19 let’s say that value won’t net you Hronek and you’ll have other teams bidding to increase the price 

Exactly 

 

So it actually make sense as to "why now?"  

 

I don't think that a 20th overall + 2nd round pick gets you a Hronek + 4th rounder 

 

Chance of it being unprotected + 2nd clearly tipped Yzerman over the edge.  

 

PS. Romanov is not as good as Hronek, is left handed, but was 22 at the time of his trade.  He cost a 13th overall pick.