Devil's Advocate for the Hronek trade

[Jack Burton]

I believe Dallas traded a 1st and 2nd to NYR for Lundkvist who’s also a RHD. 
 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, HannibalSmith said:

I believe Dallas traded a 1st and 2nd to NYR for Lundkvist who’s also a RHD. 
 

Totally forgot about that one, and Lundkvist hadn't proven anything in the NHL last summer. 

[BlakeQuinnAndEggs]

21 hours ago, DeltaSwede said:

I agree with OP here. The perceived value of the Islanders 1st was essential to the trade happening now. 

Words from the other side:
 

 

I like that they weren't shopping him. Allvin knew who he wanted and he went and got him.

 

That's a good sign.

[NHL97OneTimer]

We all want Bedard of course.  If we get a top 3 pick, that would be fantastic.  But if we don't, management may be more inclined to pick the best D in the draft and that may be exactly what we need.  Scoring is not the problem for this club.  If they get lucky with drafting a D, signing a good D in the off-season and with the addition of Hronek, this club could quickly turn things around defensively.....especially with a healthy Demko.  

 

The other key targets for this team is a legitimate shutdown line and that should be more easily achievable than other facets of a team.

 

So with this in mind, you make a good case to defend this trade despite the timing.  I just wished our second round pick (nearly a first rounder) wasn't traded.  I don't mind trading the NYI pick if Hronek is the RHD that we desperately needed.

[NHL97OneTimer]

We of course can't say the move was great until we see Hronek in action.  Seems like many thought picking up Nate Schmidt was a shrewd move.....until he wasn't great for us because for whatever reason he wasn't a good fit.  It's a risk we of course take as any other, but there's really no point in judging this trade until a year from now.

[Metal Face Doom]

6 minutes ago, NHL97OneTimer said:

We of course can't say the move was great until we see Hronek in action.  Seems like many thought picking up Nate Schmidt was a shrewd move.....until he wasn't great for us because for whatever reason he wasn't a good fit.  It's a risk we of course take as any other, but there's really no point in judging this trade until a year from now.

I'll give JR and PA the benefit of the doubt.  Most of the players they've brought in have been very solid.  Jim Benning brought in Schimdt.  Jim Bennings track record for trades isn't great.  Nor were his FA signings.  

[iinatcc]

On 3/4/2023 at 8:04 AM, mordekai said:

Part of the negativity is because not many fans nor media do much scouting and have no clue how Hronek plays. So they just assume he is another top 4 defender. In fact last year when I was listening to halford n brough, they updated some scores which included the wings game where Hronek scored. However they made fun of his name simply because they have never heard of him or even knew he existed.

Hronek basically reminds me of JT Miller but on the defense in terms of recognition, age, and perhaps potential. 

 

A good player ? Yes potentially can get much better. But is it enough to be a solid playoff contender ? ...  probably not . 

 

All this talk about Hronek and the optimism here feels similar to when Canucks acquired Miller, Garland, and even OEL. How has that turned out ?

[Baggins]

42 minutes ago, iinatcc said:

Hronek basically reminds me of JT Miller but on the defense in terms of recognition, age, and perhaps potential. 

 

A good player ? Yes potentially can get much better. But is it enough to be a solid playoff contender ? ...  probably not . 

 

All this talk about Hronek and the optimism here feels similar to when Canucks acquired Miller, Garland, and even OEL. How has that turned out ?

And why on earth would be look to add players that help get us there? 

[iinatcc]

2 minutes ago, Baggins said:

And why on earth would be look to add players that help get us there? 

maybe do it like most teams that win a cup do? Draft and develop? 

[Baggins]

2 hours ago, iinatcc said:

maybe do it like most teams that win a cup do? Draft and develop? 

Show me a team that won the cup in the last 30 years with a team entirely drafted by them. I could care less where the players come from. I just want to see a good team on the ice.

[canuckleheads fan]

It's as simple as this; management has said our window is based on Petey and QH, 24 and 23, respectively. IF we draft a bunch of 18-year-olds, unless they're Petey special, they won't be ready for at least two years, maybe three. By then, Petey is 27 and ready to bolt for a team where he can make a run, and QH is 26, looking to bolt to NJ to play with his brothers. Management wants to keep our key pieces, Petey and QH, happy; bottoming out for high draft picks is not the way to do that. I'm sure they wouldn't be happy if PA and JR shipped out every quality NHLer in the organization in exchange for picks this coming summer. Hronek is the right age to be hitting his peak, just as Petey and Quinn are hitting theirs. The NYI pick wasn't necessarily ours this year. What if they got into the lottery this year and moved up to the point where they retained the pick, then have a healthy year next season, make the playoffs, and go on a run? The Canucks would have been stuck with a late first-round pick in a less stellar draft class. OR they could trade for a quality RH puck-moving defenseman who can run PP2 and is still on the uphill side of his improvement window, just like QH and Petey. The players they brought in, Beauvillier (25), Kravtsov (23), Raty (20), all fit that same window along with players they had in Pods, Hogs (who is tearing it up in Abby right now). The team still has draft picks to try to fill that 2C position if Raty tops out at 3C. Plus, management might still move one or more of Brock, JT, the Angry Elf, and Myers out at the draft. I expect they'll find a trading partner for Brock at a return they like, maybe another early 20s player who needs a change of scenery and a low first or high second-rounder. The fact is that quality RHDs on the rise are hard to find and very expensive to sign, so the fact that they have a budding star at a good price point is worth what they paid.

Edited March 5, 2023 by canuckleheads fan

[iinatcc]

3 minutes ago, Baggins said:

Show me a team that won the cup in the last 30 years with a team entirely drafted by them. I could care less where the players come from. I just want to see a good team on the ice.

You know what I mean contextually right? 

There will be trades and FA signings to be made of course but recent successes (Avs and Bolts) roster is composed of players developed in their system and opposed to the Canucks. There was a video on that in youtube showing the numbers and the difference is staggering (and before someone says "oh it's youtube how credible is that" I assume the person did their research on a numbers side).

 

Look at the Devils, most of their forwards were either drafted or developed or both by their organization. And yes their D-core is composed mostly of trades and signings, but even so the assets Devils game up were meager compared to Vancouver's gave up out of desperation to get OEL and Hronek in separate years. 

 

As people in the media mentioned. If you were already a playoff team wanting to get over the hump then yes Hronek would be a good pickup but not if you are one of the bottom teams of the league. 

 

Also one might ask why would Yzerman and the Red Wings organization do this? Why trade a very good RHD d-man at this point? And before someone says "oh it's because they already have Seider" or "it's because his contract expires after next season" then why couldn't Yzerman wait until the draft when perhaps other teams that got eliminated in the playoffs early would try to acquire him? It's because Yzerman knew he could sell high Hroneck (and help the team's future) if any desperate team was willing to overpay. Good new for Yzerman it was Allvin/JR that was willing to overpay.

 

What is my point in the last part ... bascially that it was an overpayment and pretty reckless. A good comparison is when Brian Burke traded for Phil Kessel (not at extreme) but the basic idea buying high and giving up a good deal of your future to win now until the medium term.

 

[iinatcc]

27 minutes ago, canuckleheads fan said:

It's as simple as this; management has said our window is based on Petey and QH, 24 and 23, respectively. IF we draft a bunch of 18-year-olds, unless they're Petey special, they won't be ready for at least two years, maybe three. By then, Petey is 27 and ready to bolt for a team where he can make a run, and QH is 26, looking to bolt to NJ to play with his brothers. Management wants to keep our key pieces, Petey and QH, happy; bottoming out for high draft picks is not the way to do that. I'm sure they wouldn't be happy if PA and JR shipped out every quality NHLer in the organization in exchange for picks this coming summer. Hronek is the right age to be hitting his peak, just as Petey and Quinn are hitting theirs. The NYI pick wasn't necessarily ours this year. What if they got into the lottery this year and moved up to the point where they retained the pick, then have a healthy year next season, make the playoffs, and go on a run? The Canucks would have been stuck with a late first-round pick in a less stellar draft class. OR they could trade for a quality RH puck-moving defenseman who can run PP2 and is still on the uphill side of his improvement window, just like QH and Petey. The players they brought in, Beauvillier (25), Kravtsov (23), Raty (20), all fit that same window along with players they had in Pods, Hogs (who is tearing it up in Abby right now). The team still has draft picks to try to fill that 2C position if Raty tops out at 3C. Plus, management might still move one or more of Brock, JT, the Angry Elf, and Myers out at the draft. I expect they'll find a trading partner for Brock at a return they like, maybe another early 20s player who needs a change of scenery and a low first or high second-rounder. The fact is that quality RHDs on the rise are hard to find and very expensive to sign, so the fact that they have a budding star at a good price point is worth what they paid.

Exactly and this is will just be a vicious cycle that never ends just like that German TV show Dark. 

 

I won't spoil the ending of that show but I think maybe the only viable to save this franchise is to tear it all down perhaps Petey and Hughes included.  

 

Does it sound extreme? Sure but for The Canucks to maximize (or at least get good value) out of the prime years of Petey and Hughes, from this moment on, Management has to be absolutely perfect in their dealing and transactions. Basically management can't be afforded to do any mistakes something even teams like Tampa have been afforded. 

 

 

[IBatch]

On 3/4/2023 at 1:53 AM, Smashian Kassian said:

 

Does understanding/appreciating the deal make me an ally with the devil?  I think everyone had sticker shock fwiw, especially since Hronek isn't a big name, I didn't realize how well he was doing. 

 

The timing makes sense. Pettersson is 24, Hronek is 25. A 17 year old defenseman drafted mid/late first round is going to take 2/3 years to make the team never-mind be a legit top 4 on a good team. (I know this sounds like narrative but its true, look at the 2019 & 2020 draft classes for D drafted in the teens & beyond)

 

For context Horvat turned 24 when Elias Pettersson was in his rookie season and look how he apparently didn't line up here age-wise. And that was a 20 year old Pettersson in the NHL, not a 17-18 year old kid just drafted thats years away.

 

People who think the team needs a 4-5 year teardown + rebuild act like they have a crystal ball, but really no one knows where things are going to be in 5 years including with draft picks. The 2011 team wasn't built out of a rebuild & I don't imagine people could've possibly envisioned it during the 05-06 season.

 

Ohlund was drafted in 1994.   One of our best D's ever.   When did he join the league again?   Even the best prospects take time too.   Makar two years before he got the nod to be a regular.   QHs and   EP aren't the norm and they took a year before joining.   We do need cheap guys on ELCs a steady diet - all teams do.   But it's awfully rare to get a defenseman especially, take less than 4-5 years to cement themselves in the top four, and in a good way (not a Hutton or Sopel way).   Hedican and Acouin also took time and had their best seasons after they left.   28-34 are solid blue chip defenseman best years, and they often happen after 30. 

[IBatch]

I didn't like the Miller trade at first glance, but quickly changed my mind.   Felt we just added another Horvat level producer that played with more fire and a chip.   The timing for sure can be criticized for both that and this deal.   

 

Miller for a 22nd ish overall (bubble of course helped with that) ... well things were fun again weren't they?    Awesome trade.   His four year contract was way better than the average 22nd would get is and that's playing in the bottom six 150-200 games and then going to Europe - a successful pick at that area lol.    If he plays 12 years ... well he's going to end up with a lot of respect, and deservedly when he retires.   That's a long time with one team.   He's already in the top 50 best Canucks all-time.    Let that sink in.  

 

Hronek.   Same reaction but worse.   This time a rebuild seemed like the best course of action, around EP and QHs.   A couple down years to get a great stable again.     QHs interview killed my desire for that completely.   What's the point?   And if he feels that way i'm sure EP does too.   Both would want out. 

 

The management of course already knows this.    Hronek was a fair cost for a RHD of his age and caliber.    Of course this could go sideways on us, let's just hope he wants to play with us long term, signs a fair deal and his play matches up with what our pro scouting saw in Miller.    If that's the case, a big piece of the elephant was just bit off.  

 

We need to hit with our pick this year too of course.   Kravstov, Podz, Hogs ... we have some youth in the lineup as well.   

 

Also our team according to eliteprospects, is now the 3rd youngest in the league with Schenn and Horvat off the roster and these guys all in.  

 

Will save the judgement for later.   And like others have pointed out, if things go sideways, we can trade EP and QHs later.   Demko as well.   That would be the worst scenario.    Hope they keep chewing and biting pieces of the elephant off.   Last nights game was fun too.    Tochett, Foote and Gonchar I liked at the start.   Because they're my generation, champions - and loved how they played the game especially Tochett and Foote.    What's going on in Abby is encouraging as well.    

Edited March 5, 2023 by IBatch

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, iinatcc said:

Exactly and this is will just be a vicious cycle that never ends just like that German TV show Dark. 

 

I won't spoil the ending of that show but I think maybe the only viable to save this franchise is to tear it all down perhaps Petey and Hughes included.  

 

Does it sound extreme? Sure but for The Canucks to maximize (or at least get good value) out of the prime years of Petey and Hughes, from this moment on, Management has to be absolutely perfect in their dealing and transactions. Basically management can't be afforded to do any mistakes something even teams like Tampa have been afforded. 

 

 

QHs would ask for a trade and EP refuse to sign a long term deal.   Maybe that's what will happen anyways.    If you like EP and QHs on the team long term, this is the path.     
 

One of Kuzmenko, Antony B or Brock wont be on this team this time next season.    We won't get any value from EP and QHs playing on this team going the rebuild route, they won't be on it.   But you could get your wish anyways, if the re-tool flops.    Means we can set our calendar for the mid 2030's for next chance at contending.    This gives some hope, for something before the 2020's are done.  In that case what's a couple years anyways.   QHs and EP are already in their primes.    

[Timråfan]

7 minutes ago, IBatch said:

I didn't like the Miller trade at first glance, but quickly changed my mind.   Felt we just added another Horvat level producer that played with more fire and a chip.   The timing for sure can be criticized for both that and this deal.   

 

Miller for a 22nd ish overall (bubble of course helped with that) ... well things were fun again weren't they?    Awesome trade.   His four year contract was way better than the average 22nd would get is and that's playing in the bottom six 150-200 games and then going to Europe - a successful pick at that area lol.    If he plays 12 years ... well he's going to end up with a lot of respect, and deservedly when he retires.   That's a long time with one team.   He's already in the top 50 best Canucks all-time.    Let that sink in.  

 

Hronek.   Same reaction but worse.   This time a rebuild seemed like the best course of action, around EP and QHs.   A couple down years to get a great stable again.     QHs interview killed my desire for that completely.   What's the point?   And if he feels that way i'm sure EP does too.   Both would want out. 

 

The management of course already knows this.    Hronek was a fair cost for a RHD of his age and caliber.    Of course this could go sideways on us, let's just hope he wants to play with us long term, signs a fair deal and his play matches up with what our pro scouting saw in Miller.    If that's the case, a big piece of the elephant was just bit off.  

 

We need to hit with our pick this year too of course.   Kravstov, Podz, Hogs ... we have some youth in the lineup as well.   

 

Also our team according to eliteprospects, is now the 3rd youngest in the team with Schenn and Horvat off the roster and these guys all in.  

 

Will save the judgement for later.   And like others have pointed out, if things go sideways, we can trade EP and QHs later.   Demko as well.   That would be the worst scenario.    Hope they keep chewing and biting pieces of the elephant off.   Last nights game was fun too.    Tochett, Foote and Gonchar I liked at the start.   Because they're my generation, champions - and loved how they played the game especially Tochett and Foote.    What's going on in Abby is encouraging as well.    

Yes, no way Petey and Hughes want to stay with a team that tank on purpose.

They want at least compete in playoffs.

 

If it doesen’t work out as planned PA has to do a rebuild. But that is 4 years forward when we know how it is. Then it’s trading away Petey, Hughes and Demko to a contender.

 

I haven’t got a clue why people want us to trade away the good stuff premature.

That is really the Benning way.

[Pears]

Couldn’t agree more honestly. I’ve mentioned the timing which I can sort of agree with but in the grand scheme of things I couldn’t care less. Hronek is the type of defenseman we have been dying for for years. 25 years old, right shot, 39 points in 60 games on a meh Detroit team and all we had to give up was our 2nd and a 1st that will in all likely hood be in the late teens-early twenties range? We couldn’t have passed that up. If the Islanders get to the second round or later then we’re laughing honestly. 

[eeeeergh]

On 3/4/2023 at 12:53 AM, R3aL said:

I appreciate you taking the time to reflect then post.

 

I am really taking the good, bad, who's to say approach right now to every transaction before I react. And I am choosing to be optimistic for my own mental health and its just a better more positive approach to being a fan for me.

 

To build off your points.

 

1. Timing

 

I think those are valid points into draft pick value was here is an unknown factor to it that is double edged in alluring. I also think his trade circumstances came together at that exact moment. Stevie Y could have been dead set on moving him now. And / or we have to consider there could have been another team or more in on Hronek. Also in the offseason there would have been more parties involved in offers if not.

 

Lots of variables but I think its safe to say Stevie Y and Alvin are savvy enough and had their reasons to make the move now even if to us outside looking gin it looks kind of funny for both sides.

 

2. RHD Value

 

Agree completely.

 

RHD that a can play 20+ Minutes are scarce. They are not easy to acquire. We haven't had aa proper right side in a long time.

 

Hronek and Seider were Detroits only RHD drafted since Kronwall that were impact players.

 

I believe the assessment of blue lines right now its you can only put big money tags on 2 players one LHD and one RHD.

 

With Seider in front of Hronek I dont think Stevie Y wanted to have two big contracts on the right side and hey have aa lot of high end LHD coming up with Simon Edvinsson coming in hot and Seider due for a big raise. I feel like hes got a timeline hes operating under and felt Hronek could be moved to optimize that timeline now and wasn't a perfect fit for them with Seider there.

 

Even if we got Dragicevac or another RHD that was available with the 13-20 pick its probably pretty unlikely they are ass good as Hronek already is now let alone how good he can be the next couple years.

 

I am a big Hronek fan. I really like his game and am very excited to have him on our team.

 

Now I add a little more:

 

3. Why not Chychrun?

 

It also really bugs me how many people who have been fuelled by Drancer going off on how bad this trade was and how we should have got chychrun.

 

In my opinion, Chychrun and Hronek aren't far off in overall player value as dmen. 

 

And both players were traded cross conference. The price for us to trade for Chychrun would have been higher it was for Ottawa and vice versa with Detroit to Ottawa.

 

Then theirs durability and stylistic concerns. PP1 concerns and fit issues.

 

I know Chychrun can play his offside, but its not truly ideal for most schemes and when we haave Hughes there already we really need a RHD.

 

I personally prefer Hronek on our team than Chychrun and I think the majority of fans who have had negative reactions will feel differently after watching him play.

 

-------

 

The coverage has been a crazy assault. Its gotten a little out of hand.

 

Overall I think the team has been much clearer in their direction than they aware being given credit.

 

They came in and said:

 

1. They want to rebuild the Defence

2. They want to move off som ebda contracts

3. They want to shed cap and replenish the system

4. They want to invest in player development and have solid Farm System 

5. They want to identify younger players that haven't worked out in other markets 

6. The want to acquire 25 year olds that fit our team vision

7. They are building, not rebuilding / retooling. Just building and building.

8. They've identified we have the core pieces to build around

9. They said this is going to take 2-3 Years

10. They said we have to play with far more structure and our game prep, habits, culture isn't up to par and they need to rebuild that.

11. They've said they have complete autonomy.

12. They've admitted failures or where they have come short and where they want to deliver on

13. They've said they are open minded in some regard to ensure they can be opportunistic as their main goal I to improve the team to build a winner

14. Their goal is to bring a Stanley Cup to Vancouver

15. Millstein has bought into their vision and said he's excited of our future so should us the fans (Hes an AGM right so his words matter)

 

In order to do what they are trying to do they have to make lots of moves and hit on draft picks.

 

Its too soon to evaluate them deeply.

 

But I would say they've been fairly consistent in their messaging I dont know why the media and so many fans say they aren't and act like they came out and said we are doing a rebuild.

 

People aren't even considering that without a competent d pairing behind Hughes we are gonna shorten his career if we keep playing the breaks off the kid too.

 

In an extremely optimistic world you could say:

 

1. With our new system we will play more predictable, responsible hockey as a TEAM not ass a group of contractors / individuals and that will make life on Demko easier, he wont have to cheat on reads, he wont have to make as many insane saves and hit will be easier for him to stay healthy as well. It should also help insulate player specific weaknesses.

 

2. Our goaltending will without a doubt be better next season. Which will raise the floor of his team dramatically.

 

3. Our PP has honestly only looked better to me with Horvat gone, go figure. Been more dynamic, fluid and unpredictable. Whereas with Horvat it felt so static, it was like three set plays. Back door to Kuzmenko, Bumper Feed to Horvat or Petey One Timer. IT still worked but its been more fun to watch lately. Adding in Hronek gives the team more options for on the first unit with two dmen opposite hands and different skill sets too but I think they run PP1 Hughes PP2 Hronek.

 

4. They are going to improve our DEF more by the time the season starts next year and our DEFENCE will be better on paper 100% just with the acquisition of Hronek. I am drinking the Gavrikov UFA rumour koolaid and the Jake Livngstone hype wagon I am on it. I can already visualize them in cancels uniforms.

 

5. We have PETEY / HUGHES / DEMKO as core pieces about to enter their primes. We would be wasting them if we didn't try to build the best possible team we could around them. Petey and Hughes are showing they are playing out of their minds and still have room for added growth / levels to their game. 

 

6. We have some kids that are on the verge of stepping up Podkolzin / Hoglander / Kravtsov and I think Podz and Kravtsov finish the year well and work their asses off all summer and have good years next year.

 

7. AB was a great addition but having him and a healthy Mikehyev changes our forward group dynamic a lot. Our forward group has a great mix of size, speed and skill we are only short a 3C which doesn't sound like they are planning Raty will be ready for. So unless we win the draft lottery we are going to have to wait at least another season to get. a C prospect in the line up whether that would be a: Leonard / Smith / Dvorsky / Moore type prospect Or Raty ready to go. Or they will acquire one this summer and if we draft a C thats NHL ready or raty is maybe they'll play with Miller and Mikehyev.

 

 

Okay I am rambly now. if you read my whole post give me aa hooooooyeh and no im exhausted not intoxicated 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Something else to think about: Chychrun plays an average of 56 games per season. 

 

Hronek plays 74.5 

 

 

[Master Mind]

14 hours ago, combover said:

we gave  up a first to patch the d with OEL and we put ourselves against the cap with it 

we gave up a first to patch the d with hronek we put ourselves against the cap with it.

 

seems pretty similar to me.

 

most  were pretty happy with the OEL trade at the time saying a lot of the same things people are saying with hronek.

 

It’s not about the player as much as  it’s about the repercussions the deals have. 

pa himself said they misgauged how hard it is to move cap so what did the do. Add more cap. 
 

 

 

 

Yep, we keep doing the same thing, and a portion of the fanbase keeps trying to find ways to justify it (and every other poor decision management ever makes).

 

I bet many of the people praising the trade have never even watched Hronek play, outside of games against Vancouver. They'll look at his stats and think he's better than he is.

 

Imagine thinking that a D-core of Hughes/OEL/Hronek can match up with the defenses of Colorado, Tampa, Carolina, etc