Devil's Advocate for the Hronek trade

[Guest]

10 hours ago, Baggins said:

 

The biggest complaint moving Bo, other than "but we like him", was we didn't get a good RHD in return. Well with a flip we did. Now if they move any of Boeser, Garland, or Myers, there's no preasure at all in getting a top 4 RHD in return. They're no longer limited to teams with a RHD they are targetting and can move any or all of those players for what they perceive to be the best return from any team.

 

I wouldn't be too surprised to see one of our wingers moved out to recoup a 2nd round pick, which would cement us as having a solid 2023 draft capital surplus.  

 

Allvin mentioned in his interview after the trade deadline that in speaking with teams, he kind of figured that there will be deals available to him this summer that will make it okay to move cap out. 

[Goal:thecup]

17 hours ago, Boudrias said:

I liked PA’s process of looking at each situation, evaluating the options and moving forward with the one that delivers the most value to the team. Obviously there is a dependence on the evaluation process and the skills of the scouting department. Assuming an equal development track for a player in two different orgs has a lot of assumptions associated with that. 

Yes, the big team JR and PA have assembled seem to be very talented and worthy of the dependence placed on them.

As fans, we come through every event (such as draft day or the TDL) having learned a lot from this crew.

At least I do, some on here seem to learn very little and hang onto their failed predictions far too long.

[eeeeergh]

11 hours ago, Baggins said:

What will this team be in the next 7, 8, or even 9 years? You will never be a contender if you don't build around your top talent. Hronek can be a core player here for the ext 8 years. If he was 28, 29, or 30 I'd agree. But he's 25.

 

Drance is an idiot. Can we agree a top 4 RHD is a difficult position to fill? The last one we drafted was Bieksa in the 5th round in 2001. Again, Hronek is 25. FYI, Pettersson is 24. What's the point of keeping Pettersson if Hronek isn't a good addition at 25? Does adding a quality 25 yr old RHD improve the team for the forseeable future? Does it build on our current young talent? Building is building. You just can't sit around hoping on magic beans. Every piece added in Pettersson's age group moves us closer. 

 

Here's the deal...

Out - Horvat C (28) plus a 2nd rounder

In- Beauvillier LW (25), Raty C (20), Hronek RHD (25) and a 4th rounder.

I'm pretty freakin' happy with that.

 

The biggest complaint moving Bo, other than "but we like him", was we didn't get a good RHD in return. Well with a flip we did. Now if they move any of Boeser, Garland, or Myers, there's no preasure at all in getting a top 4 RHD in return. They're no longer limited to teams with a RHD they are targetting and can move any or all of those players for what they perceive to be the best return from any team.

 

Btw, what I've seen the most is "right player, wrong time". The reasoning being we are a bottom 7 team and out of the playoffs, so why are we adding? That's idiotic. Hronek isn't a rental that disappears at the end of the season. When you're building and opportunity knocks - you answer. If you don't the opportunity can be lost. If we say "not the right time, maybe in June". Will Yzerman simply find a different dance partner? Does he change his mind once he knows exactly what that Isles first is? Or even change his mind simply because he's had time to really consider it. Or possibly make a completely different deal that in turn takes Hronek of the market again. This is a player that can be part of the core for the next 7-8 years. The "when" doesn't matter at all. If the deal is acceptable you grab those opportunities when they presents themself. You snooze you lose.

Thank you. 

[clutesi]

A first AND a second? We're near the bottom of the league. This move might get us in the playoffs but there is no way this team competes for the cup. And that's what some of us have waited decades for. Long term we'll take a bigger cap hit and reduce our odds of being competitive. You never know, but the better odds are to play the long game and develop through the draft. 

[Fred65]

20 minutes ago, clutesi said:

A first AND a second? We're near the bottom of the league. This move might get us in the playoffs but there is no way this team competes for the cup. And that's what some of us have waited decades for. Long term we'll take a bigger cap hit and reduce our odds of being competitive. You never know, but the better odds are to play the long game and develop through the draft. 

Develop through the draft. That's not possible, assuming we get 1 first round pick per year ( and that's not guranteed ) it takes a long long time to reach the goal. We had 1 st round pick last year and we have one this year etc etc. Remember any thing beyond the first round has a 20% chance of success, they're tough odds. The fact is we need a lot going for the team other than the draft. Th draft is the cherry on the sundae. To manage a NHL team needs more expertise than sitting down each June and making a choice at the drfat, even that the odds for success in the 1st round stand at or around 60%

[The Lock]

1 hour ago, clutesi said:

A first AND a second? We're near the bottom of the league. This move might get us in the playoffs but there is no way this team competes for the cup. And that's what some of us have waited decades for. Long term we'll take a bigger cap hit and reduce our odds of being competitive. You never know, but the better odds are to play the long game and develop through the draft. 

It's more about going for the least bad option at this point and trying for the quick turnaround. Personally, I see the logic in that as it's our chance with Petey and Hughes. A rebuild through the draft's going to take a long time and, right now, we don't really have the luxury of time with the team we have. We're not in the long game at the moment due to not having done the long gave and having a proper rebuild (ironically enough)

 

I think we either have to commit to what we have and hope we get at least a decent team out of it or not have a good team at all for a long time.

Edited March 7, 2023 by The Lock

[Jester13]

On 3/5/2023 at 3:08 PM, Baggins said:

What will this team be in the next 7, 8, or even 9 years? You will never be a contender if you don't build around your top talent. Hronek can be a core player here for the ext 8 years. If he was 28, 29, or 30 I'd agree. But he's 25.

 

Drance is an idiot. Can we agree a top 4 RHD is a difficult position to fill? The last one we drafted was Bieksa in the 5th round in 2001. Again, Hronek is 25. FYI, Pettersson is 24. What's the point of keeping Pettersson if Hronek isn't a good addition at 25? Does adding a quality 25 yr old RHD improve the team for the forseeable future? Does it build on our current young talent? Building is building. You just can't sit around hoping on magic beans. Every piece added in Pettersson's age group moves us closer. 

 

Here's the deal...

Out - Horvat C (28) plus a 2nd rounder

In- Beauvillier LW (25), Raty C (20), Hronek RHD (25) and a 4th rounder.

I'm pretty freakin' happy with that.

 

The biggest complaint moving Bo, other than "but we like him", was we didn't get a good RHD in return. Well with a flip we did. Now if they move any of Boeser, Garland, or Myers, there's no preasure at all in getting a top 4 RHD in return. They're no longer limited to teams with a RHD they are targetting and can move any or all of those players for what they perceive to be the best return from any team.

 

Btw, what I've seen the most is "right player, wrong time". The reasoning being we are a bottom 7 team and out of the playoffs, so why are we adding? That's idiotic. Hronek isn't a rental that disappears at the end of the season. When you're building and opportunity knocks - you answer. If you don't the opportunity can be lost. If we say "not the right time, maybe in June". Will Yzerman simply find a different dance partner? Does he change his mind once he knows exactly what that Isles first is? Or even change his mind simply because he's had time to really consider it. Or possibly make a completely different deal that in turn takes Hronek of the market again. This is a player that can be part of the core for the next 7-8 years. The "when" doesn't matter at all. If the deal is acceptable you grab those opportunities when they presents themself. You snooze you lose.

The first bolded part does not show that drafting and developing our own RHD is hard but rather the fact that our organization neglected that position for decades. If you don't draft them at all, then it's impossible to develop them.

 

The part you're missing with the second bolded part is that by not drafting our own players, we lose out on valuable cost-controlled years. Trading for Hronek put us into cap trouble again, right away. You pointed out how Petey is only 24, but what you failed to mention is what Petey is very close to getting paid with his next contract due to his age and performance. Hronek is also going to be due a hefty raise after next year because of his age, if things go well for him, so we missed out on all his controlled years and cap/contract flexibility to make other moves with those picks at more opportune times, or - gawd forbid - use those picks and actually draft players.

 

The real issue, IMO, however, is that this organization is far beyond the opportunity to draft our own players to become contenders, as we didn't do it years ago when we should have. JR has since come in and done his evaluation and stated early on that we don't have a good prospect pool - go figure - which is why they said they were going to be focusing on European and college free agents to fill the gaps in our prospect pool. 

 

Really, it comes down to whether or not Allvin & Co can actually create a good enough prospect pool this way through their own scouting and signing/trading. So far they've gotten some great pieces for free, but they're still in cap hell with expiring contracts that are due hefty raises soon, a weak d-core that still needs major surgery, and still a weak prospect pool.
 

But, having said all this, this core still has lots of potential, so if Tocc can continue to get them to play the right way, we get a healthy Demko and Silovs can also win some games next year as a backup, our core guys stay healthy, etc., we might actually show the most improvement in the league next year and fight for a playoff spot. Of course, are we contenders? No. But at least we'll have lots of hopium for a few years until we start having the rebuild discussion again when Petey and Hughes are aging out in a handful of years.

[Provost]

On 3/6/2023 at 2:09 AM, VancouverHabitant said:

I wouldn't be too surprised to see one of our wingers moved out to recoup a 2nd round pick, which would cement us as having a solid 2023 draft capital surplus.  

 

Allvin mentioned in his interview after the trade deadline that in speaking with teams, he kind of figured that there will be deals available to him this summer that will make it okay to move cap out. 

Just like they said there would be a bigger market for JT last offseason compared with the deadline?  Just like they said they would shed cap last offseason?

 

Another flat cap year with virtually no money in the whole NHL system for teams to sign their own players, never mind taking on big cap liabilities.

 

If he is not worried, it is because they have decided to buy out a guy like OEL and pooch our cap for neeely a decade… just to hopefully squeeze into a wildcard spot next year.

 

I also don’t know what “draft capital surplus”

means, we have no 2nd round picks in the next two years and your wishful thinking proposition just means getting back a later 2nd round pick than we gave up

[Guest]

47 minutes ago, Provost said:

Just like they said there would be a bigger market for JT last offseason compared with the deadline?  Just like they said they would shed cap last offseason?

 

That was the media, not Allvin talking about the market for JT.  

 

47 minutes ago, Provost said:

Another flat cap year with virtually no money in the whole NHL system for teams to sign their own players, never mind taking on big cap liabilities.

 

If he is not worried, it is because they have decided to buy out a guy like OEL and pooch our cap for neeely a decade… just to hopefully squeeze into a wildcard spot next year.

 

I also don’t know what “draft capital surplus”

means, we have no 2nd round picks in the next two years and your wishful thinking proposition just means getting back a later 2nd round pick than we gave up

If we get a 2nd back, we will firmly be in a pick surplus.  We have 2 x 3rd round picks and 3 x 4th round picks this year, in addition to our 1st and 6th rounders.  

 

NHL has re-signed most of their own players. Look at the upcoming UFA class, it's empty.  

 

[Sell.the.team]

I'm not sure why Drance and others are panicking about cap space for.  Tyler Myers and Anthony Beuvillier coming off the books in 2024 is $10M of extra cap, part of which can be used to resign EP and FH to long-term deals should it make sense. 

 

Eventually we can buy-out OEL if he can't turn things around.  If we can wait to June 2025, his buy-out just isnt that bad... especially if the cap increases materially.

 

We really need to sign a good UDFA defenseman or two to team friendly deals to help shore up defensive holes.  From the sounds of it, we are in on a few good options.  Hopefully our 2023 1st is an impact player (preferably defenseman) who can step in in the next 3 seasons on an ELC.

 

It may not be all sunshine and roses, but it certainly isn't bleak.  Can't imagine Drance as a beat reporter for the Wild.  Their cap position next year would make his head explode into a million pieces.

 

 

[Sativika]

On 3/5/2023 at 1:42 AM, iinatcc said:

Hronek basically reminds me of JT Miller but on the defense in terms of recognition, age, and perhaps potential. 

 

A good player ? Yes potentially can get much better. But is it enough to be a solid playoff contender ? ...  probably not . 

 

All this talk about Hronek and the optimism here feels similar to when Canucks acquired Miller, Garland, and even OEL. How has that turned out ?

Copy and paste from Canucks Daily..........

"Hronek is currently putting in a career-high season of 38 points after 60 games. The rarity of the right-handed shot defenseman really increases the price the Canucks will have to pay for his services in the long term. Amongst active right-handed defensemen making an average of $7M/year, we can find players like Aaron Ekblad, Alex Pietrangelo, Dougie Hamilton, Cale Makar, Jacob Trouba, and Charlie McAvoyjust to name those."
 

Now I've not really seen Hronek play much. And I really didn't pay any attention in the recent Wings/Nucks game. But is Hronek worthy to be included with the above names?

If that's so, then we scored big time. I dunno. Whaddaya'll say to this?!?!??!????

 

[DSVII]

15 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

 

 

If we get a 2nd back, we will firmly be in a pick surplus.  We have 2 x 3rd round picks and 3 x 4th round picks this year, in addition to our 1st and 6th rounders.  

 

 

 I still remember people saying it's okay to trade away 2nds because Benning can get a 2nd round quality player at 5th since he's so good. It doesn't work this way.

 

This is not a surplus in value, just in the number of picks. That is an important distinction. 

 

 

 

 

[DSVII]

On 3/5/2023 at 1:53 PM, aGENT said:

Well summarized Sid. And I think that's where a lot of the frustration is coming from.

 

They've basically picked the most challenging route, with the lowest likelihood of success. It's not impossible that they pull it off, it's just improbable.

 

But yeah, if they manage to pull it off, it will be pretty epic 

 

If they don't though (as many fear), things could get pretty ugly around here though 

It's even more frustrating because we just saw a GM convince his star captain, who has been in losing seasons since his draft year in 2014, to re-sign at an extension and sell him on the idea that by trading away the #2 RHD on his team today, they are setting them up for future success that he can be here to enjoy. This captain too, was due to be a UFA.

 

But somehow it's harder to convince Petey and Hughes, who are both locked in for the next few years, that we can't even reset for half a season to set up the foundation and play out some bad contracts.

 

Of course, I'll concede that Allvin is not Yzerman. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Sativika said:

Copy and paste from Canucks Daily..........

"Hronek is currently putting in a career-high season of 38 points after 60 games. The rarity of the right-handed shot defenseman really increases the price the Canucks will have to pay for his services in the long term. Amongst active right-handed defensemen making an average of $7M/year, we can find players like Aaron Ekblad, Alex Pietrangelo, Dougie Hamilton, Cale Makar, Jacob Trouba, and Charlie McAvoyjust to name those."
 

Now I've not really seen Hronek play much. And I really didn't pay any attention in the recent Wings/Nucks game. But is Hronek worthy to be included with the above names?

If that's so, then we scored big time. I dunno. Whaddaya'll say to this?!?!??!????

 

He should not be included in that list.  

 

I have watched Hronek about 4-5 times against the Canucks and about 1-2 other games.  

 

Neal Pionk would be a good comparable in terms of skill in the current NHL. Pionk is making 5.8 mil/year on a long term deal.  

 

7 mil/year would be the max that Hronek could expect IF he comes in and plays like a top pairing dman. No idea why people would bring up a Makar or MacAvoy in the article. 

[iceman64]

I think a lot of the problem is how much draft picks are overrated unless their in the top 3, and when was the last time we got a top 3 in a draft? after that, the possibility of a player making the NHL is a crapshoot, let alone becoming a "impact" NHL'er is even less opposed to a player whose proven they are, which for us is a necessity at the moment IF their younger but established like Hronek is.

Not in this case but JT, love him or hate him was a classic example minus the younger part but the price at his cap until the new contract kicks in was another factor as we got him for bargain basement price in the meantime but hoping we could draft to get a younger version of him was and is not realistic, plus the waiting time to develop is another thing because not everyone can make the jump immediately which may or may not be a factor but still. 

 So unless your draft picks name is McDavid or something, it's too big of a risk for us until our roster is complete and we're drafting for depth and that's not us right now. 

Soon? Let's frackin hope so but for now that was a decent move, no we can't always get deals and get someone for less than actual worth and have to pay full price but again, we're hardly in a position for anything else but you know how the media works, tell people b.s. long enough and they'll believe it, and yes, yet again it started there...  

[Guest]

50 minutes ago, DSVII said:

It's even more frustrating because we just saw a GM convince his star captain, who has been in losing seasons since his draft year in 2014, to re-sign at an extension and sell him on the idea that by trading away the #2 RHD on his team today, they are setting them up for future success that he can be here to enjoy. This captain too, was due to be a UFA.

 

But somehow it's harder to convince Petey and Hughes, who are both locked in for the next few years, that we can't even reset for half a season to set up the foundation and play out some bad contracts.

 

Of course, I'll concede that Allvin is not Yzerman. 

You should watch the trade deadline press conference that Yzerman did (it was posted earlier in the thread). 

 

Yzerman is going to be looking to offload some of his draft picks for players soon. He feels that they are slightly behind Buffalo and Ottawa in their rebuild (and I agree with him).  

 

If we look at their NHL stars that they have hit on, we are looking at Seider who is younger then Hughes. 

Larkin is 26, but their next young star is a winger Lucas Raymond who is only 20.  

The rest of their young promising prospects haven't made the NHL yet, so I think that delaying the value of Hronek by converting him to draft picks made sense. 

 

Our young stars are going to be entering the start of their prime sooner then Detroit's, so you can justify Allvin's bet without having to use the "keep Petey and Quinn happy" argument. 

 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, iceman64 said:

I think a lot of the problem is how much draft picks are overrated unless their in the top 3, and when was the last time we got a top 3 in a draft? after that, the possibility of a player making the NHL is a crapshoot, let alone becoming a "impact" NHL'er is even less opposed to a player whose proven they are, which for us is a necessity at the moment IF their younger but established like Hronek is.

Craig Button said the same thing as you on Donny and Dhali, except not top 3 but top 10 I think.  

 

 

[D-Money]

On the one hand, I'm apprehensive of the deal, and would have preferred more of an in-depth rebuild.

 

But on the other hand, I don't agree with people saying this is the same strategy as Jim Benning. The main problem with Benning's strategy wasn't just that he was trading futures and/or spending big money on established defensemen like OEL, Myers, and Gudbranson...it's that the players he targeted were simply not good players. And the underlying data on these players supported it. With each of OEL, Myers, and Gudbranson, the advanced stats indicated that they were simply not quality top-4 defensemen. Benning said the data was wrong, and bet on them. They were each bad bets. The problem isn't that we are spending over $13M on 2 defensemen (OEL & Myers) - it's that we are spending over $13M and these two players are not worth a fraction of that.

 

With Hronek, the advanced stats heavily suggest he is a very good defensemen...elite, in fact. Dom's WAR model rates him as a top-10 defenseman in the league, with a positive impact only slightly behind Quinn Hughes'. This year, the Canucks are heavily outscoring opponents when Hughes is on the ice, but getting absolutely shelled when he isn't. If Hronek's data is even remotely correct, and he can steady the ship on the 2nd pair for multiple years going forward, he will make a MASSIVE difference on this team.

 

So yeah, I'm not completely sold on the strategy, but I get it. And it is nothing like the moves Benning made to try to fix the defense.

[DSVII]

1 hour ago, VancouverHabitant said:

You should watch the trade deadline press conference that Yzerman did (it was posted earlier in the thread). 

 

Yzerman is going to be looking to offload some of his draft picks for players soon. He feels that they are slightly behind Buffalo and Ottawa in their rebuild (and I agree with him).  

 

If we look at their NHL stars that they have hit on, we are looking at Seider who is younger then Hughes. 

Larkin is 26, but their next young star is a winger Lucas Raymond who is only 20.  

The rest of their young promising prospects haven't made the NHL yet, so I think that delaying the value of Hronek by converting him to draft picks made sense. 

 

Our young stars are going to be entering the start of their prime sooner then Detroit's, so you can justify Allvin's bet without having to use the "keep Petey and Quinn happy" argument. 

 

Will do! If this is truly his take, then this is my question...what player is Yzerman seeing that we aren't? If he values said player higher than Hronek for his team that he can also get with draft capital. It'll be interesting to see. Hoping it works out, when was the last time we've seen Yzerman make a losing or fair trade, I am always suspicious when he's willing to walk away from a coveted asset on any team aiming to rebuild/compete.

 

Larkin is basically their Bo Horvat, and it's pretty impressive he managed to navigate out of a cap squeeze and convince his foundational player to stay through this. For a core whose superstars, as you said, are 5 years apart. I think Seider will end up being more valuable than Raymond though. 

Edited March 8, 2023 by DSVII

[iceman64]

2 hours ago, D-Money said:

On the one hand, I'm apprehensive of the deal, and would have preferred more of an in-depth rebuild.

 

But on the other hand, I don't agree with people saying this is the same strategy as Jim Benning. The main problem with Benning's strategy wasn't just that he was trading futures and/or spending big money on established defensemen like OEL, Myers, and Gudbranson...it's that the players he targeted were simply not good players. And the underlying data on these players supported it. With each of OEL, Myers, and Gudbranson, the advanced stats indicated that they were simply not quality top-4 defensemen. Benning said the data was wrong, and bet on them. They were each bad bets. The problem isn't that we are spending over $13M on 2 defensemen (OEL & Myers) - it's that we are spending over $13M and these two players are not worth a fraction of that.

 

With Hronek, the advanced stats heavily suggest he is a very good defensemen...elite, in fact. Dom's WAR model rates him as a top-10 defenseman in the league, with a positive impact only slightly behind Quinn Hughes'. This year, the Canucks are heavily outscoring opponents when Hughes is on the ice, but getting absolutely shelled when he isn't. If Hronek's data is even remotely correct, and he can steady the ship on the 2nd pair for multiple years going forward, he will make a MASSIVE difference on this team.

 

So yeah, I'm not completely sold on the strategy, but I get it. And it is nothing like the moves Benning made to try to fix the defense.

That's because you have zero clue to exactly why 2 out of those 3 were picked, followed by the same with OEL but in another way, which was a change of scenery which actually worked until the team turned into exactly the $hitty team where he came from. 

 I'll give you a hint why he picked Tyler and Erik though, has something to do with this team softer than a creampuff! 

 Oh wait, instead of that, let's stay with the same ole soft teams that got offed from the post season in the first round after a dazzling season to get there, yeah that bit of stupidity worked didn't it?! At least 3 GM's had the balls to tell fans to go F themselves realizing it would never work BUT again, we want the same high skilled "soft" idea today as back then.. f'n genius!!!