STH Letter by Jim Rutherford

[OldFaithfulCap]

5 minutes ago, Alflives said:

What direction? Rebuild? It sure seems that’s the direction you want. So that means in your opinion our young core guys, even with a good supporting cast, aren’t good enough to win. 
That's clearly 100% wrong. 
Petey, Hughes, Demko, Miller, Hronek. That’s a fabulous core. 

The optimist in me wants to agree with you. Definitely some short term positive signs with pk and goals against and they could be foundations for a better future. I'd still like us to get a high draft pick, but i'd be happy with dvorsky if we pick later. 

 

The remainder of this post are my thoughts which may turn out to be incorrect.

 

My worry with Tocchet is that we're going to become an above average defensive team who struggles to score consistently against big teams. He is and will continue to play the top guys into the ground, and have them out for everything pp/pk/ev pretty much like now. He's going to keep with balanced lines, adding a joshua/pdg type who will make the lines better defensively but will end up reducing goals for us as usually these types can't finish chances. The combination of those points with every line focused on playing two ways will make the team very gritty but they'll ironically start to score less through tiredness and lacking finishing in a time where league scoring is going up.

 

The rest is pure speculation so feel free to ignore. If it was my call then I would have tanked hard for bedard - kept bruce, kept the isles pick and used gm tricks to keep near the bottom (and done my best to trade for 1st from 3rd etc if needed) and then promoted Jeremy Colliton to coach next year. Colliton seems to get guys to really play their roles, still plays an offensive gameplan but with a good defensive system. I would have kept rolling with two offensive first lines and then really focused on creating a shutdown line who would own the pk. Basically raty would be the guy i'd train to be the 3rd line guy and i'd work with hoglander to make him be a part with pdg as the other. I'd do the same with the defence and try and build pkers there so hughes isn't out there unless its the end of the game. Of course its all speculation but if colliton goes somewhere else then i'll be watching his team closely.

 

 

[Nucker 67]

The players are happy, and it's showing in their play. The young stars (Pettersson, Hughes) have taken on a bigger leadership role and they're running with it. I'm very optimistic about next season. Last few years has been a s***-show, but they finally have the management and coaching team they want, proven winners. They have been working on making the team better by bringing in certain players. IMO, they made the right choice keeping Miller over Horvat. 

[Alflives]

35 minutes ago, OldFaithfulCap said:

The optimist in me wants to agree with you. Definitely some short term positive signs with pk and goals against and they could be foundations for a better future. I'd still like us to get a high draft pick, but i'd be happy with dvorsky if we pick later. 

 

The remainder of this post are my thoughts which may turn out to be incorrect.

 

My worry with Tocchet is that we're going to become an above average defensive team who struggles to score consistently against big teams. He is and will continue to play the top guys into the ground, and have them out for everything pp/pk/ev pretty much like now. He's going to keep with balanced lines, adding a joshua/pdg type who will make the lines better defensively but will end up reducing goals for us as usually these types can't finish chances. The combination of those points with every line focused on playing two ways will make the team very gritty but they'll ironically start to score less through tiredness and lacking finishing in a time where league scoring is going up.

 

The rest is pure speculation so feel free to ignore. If it was my call then I would have tanked hard for bedard - kept bruce, kept the isles pick and used gm tricks to keep near the bottom (and done my best to trade for 1st from 3rd etc if needed) and then promoted Jeremy Colliton to coach next year. Colliton seems to get guys to really play their roles, still plays an offensive gameplan but with a good defensive system. I would have kept rolling with two offensive first lines and then really focused on creating a shutdown line who would own the pk. Basically raty would be the guy i'd train to be the 3rd line guy and i'd work with hoglander to make him be a part with pdg as the other. I'd do the same with the defence and try and build pkers there so hughes isn't out there unless its the end of the game. Of course its all speculation but if colliton goes somewhere else then i'll be watching his team closely.

 

 

Again, that direction is a rebuild. To be bad enough to draft high consistently would require trading Demko, Hughes, and Petey. They are too good for us to be that bad. And we flipped the Islanders' pick at the height of its value for a young, right shot, 2D, who is a heck of player. 

I see us looking really good. But we must get rid of OEL, Garland, Myers.

[Ghostsof1915]

38 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

The players are happy, and it's showing in their play. The young stars (Pettersson, Hughes) have taken on a bigger leadership role and they're running with it. I'm very optimistic about next season. Last few years has been a s***-show, but they finally have the management and coaching team they want, proven winners. They have been working on making the team better by bringing in certain players. IMO, they made the right choice keeping Miller over Horvat. 

That's what sad. Miller and Horvat are going to be constantly compared to as who's the better player. Just like Hronek is going to judged on something that's not in his control. Namely what happens to those draft picks Detroit picks up. If those two picks turn out to be studs. We will never hear the end of it.

[awalk]

These wins down the stretch mean very little unless they carry it over to next season. Hard to be stoked about a brilliant late season run from 14th to 10th, once the games are over.

 

But I could see how this year, despite being exactly like the last few years, has a bit more hope -- based on the apparent quality of pro scouting from the new group, and the emergence of Petey and Hughes as true elite players. A full season of Demko, and our offense group, and a couple key D additions, and this is probably a playoff team next year.

 

But yeah it's a, I'll believe it when the games matter, thing for me at this point.

[Alflives]

14 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

That's what sad. Miller and Horvat are going to be constantly compared to as who's the better player. Just like Hronek is going to judged on something that's not in his control. Namely what happens to those draft picks Detroit picks up. If those two picks turn out to be studs. We will never hear the end of it.

The odds of the Wings getting a player as good as Hronek with either of those picks is very very very low. That was a friggin' steal of a deal. 

[Ballisticsports.]

28 minutes ago, Alflives said:

The odds of the Wings getting a player as good as Hronek with either of those picks is very very very low. That was a friggin' steal of a deal. 

Yes, 

We still have our 1st and got a young sure thing positional guy to compliment our core

 

(On a side thought outside this)

Draft picks are like lottery tickets

Curious ever heard of anyone selling their house and spending all that money on buying lottery tickets ?

 

[Ghostsof1915]

13 minutes ago, Ballisticsports. said:

Yes, 

We still have our 1st and got a young sure thing positional guy to compliment our core

 

(On a side thought outside this)

Draft picks are like lottery tickets

Curious ever heard of anyone selling their house and spending all that money on buying lottery tickets ?

 

7th round picks have a 26% chance of playing at least a game in the NHL. So I'd say the lottery odds are far more remote. But I get what you're saying.

[DefCon1]

13 hours ago, Dr. Crossbar said:

JR says ... F*** the fanbase, we're building a winner whether you like it or not! 

 

EDIT: That's exactly what we've needed. 

 

Evidence? No cup.

 

 

 

I think the management is miles better than previous, it's night and day. Building a contender starts from the management and having good scouts and development program. 

[DefCon1]

13 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

Sounds like Boeser ought to put his house up for sale.

Boeser is not our core player anymore. He is too slow and he has been given so many chances in the top 6 and number 1 PP but he is not worth what he is being paid. I wouldn't mind Boeser at 3 to 4 million max.

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

That's what sad. Miller and Horvat are going to be constantly compared to as who's the better player. Just like Hronek is going to judged on something that's not in his control. Namely what happens to those draft picks Detroit picks up. If those two picks turn out to be studs. We will never hear the end of it.

It happens often that one side ends up with a better player for longer.   Sometimes it's lopsided but also works out for both clubs.   CAL involved with two such trades - Hull.  When Suter went down Ramage was right there to pick up the slack.   And Joe New for Iginla.   CAL lost a two time 50 goal scorer and key member of their club, but set themselves up for the 2000's.    Dallas went on to win a cup, Joe the Conn Smythe and rightly so, and went back to the finals the next year, during the deepest part of the dead puck era.  

 

NYR (f!ck them!) in 94 had loads of young talent and some key vets, but decided to unload even though they just had a great season the year before, we're leading the league in points, tops in PP and tops in PK.   They traded some blue chip and young stars, for ex Oilers etc lol.     They probably wouldn't have beat NJ if they didn't add that playoff experience.     Also mortgaged their future doing so.   
 

As far as Horvat goes, reminds me more of a 70's guy than anything.   Just one of the better guys around for his time.   Maybe 80's but they did go to the final with a lot of guys that played throughout.     
 

What happens next?   And as far as picks goes that's one thing you will never see me bitch much about when it's past the top ten or so.    Who the heck knows who we'd take.   Maybe DET totally flops with their pick.   And maybe IF we kept it instead, we'd draft a future HHOFer.   Or vice versa.    I really wanted McTavish before the OEL trade.   Once he was gone at 3 was like whatever.    Boldy reminded me a little of Linden so also wanted him, but Podz was so highly ranked can see why they went with him instead.    It's a crap shoot even in the top ten. 

 

As for this draft.   I'm going to wager it ends up underwhelming aside from the top of it.   Only because it's been so freaking hyped it's a little ridiculous.   Maybe it's the best draft for a couple decades.   Or maybe it's another Mathews like draft too.   Scouts warned in September that these guys lost a lot of development time, and that it wouldn't be easy to ascertain whom to pick after the top guys are gone.    A lot of misses and a lot of guys picked late that could end up steals.    And above average - say it again, above average overall.    Since September, the hype machine has amped right up.   Was it Daigle that broke Lafleurs junior record or was it Mario.   Can't re-call.   He was hyped like Beddard is too.   Not saying Beddard won't work out, sure he will.   Those other guys?  McTavish and EP

say hello, same with Seider, same with Zadina, Yakupov, Drouin, too many vowels in CAR that slew footed EP... the top ten never looks right in a re-draft aside form maybe the top two or three guys.   And even then usually not.   

 

Edit:  This was written in 2012, already claiming the 2003 draft class as the winner.   Which is a little ridiculous.   Not all Harts, Norris, Art Ross, Vezina, first and second team all-star and Selke trophies are created equal.   Case in point.   Already declaring Perry and Getzlaf as HHOFers (meh maybe Getzlaf .. but if Perry gets in so should at least 10 other guys who haven't yet, starting with Mogilny, Brindamour, Propp, Nichols, Elias, Turgeon just off the top of my head) and Phanuef oplus Mike Richards lol..    This is why you need to wait before declaring anything.    For sure a great draft class though.   This is an article saying it was the best draft all time and "not even close" ... prematurely of course. 

 

 

Edit: Truly the only "locks" for the HHOF are Bergeron and MAF.    Of the two, Bergeron is more special given he's passed Gainey who the Selke was inspired from, but MAF for sure is still writing his chapter right now and it's pretty close.     Getzlaf probably gets in too, even though it was Selanne's line doing the heavy close to the end of his career, if the Sedins get in, he likely does too.   Selanne >.   

 

Edited March 30, 2023 by IBatch

[TiTaniuM]

Every decision JR/PA have made or should be making going forward must be centred around Petey, Hughes and Demko. Have we ever had young core or foundation of building a contender as good as they are now? How many rebuilding teams say over the last 20 years have been able to establish what we have now? Maybe a couple? I fully support the direction they set forth bringing in good, young players that can help now and next 3 to 5 years rather than ones that will be ready in 3 to 5 years. Detroit traded away an asset that rarely gets moved because they don’t have the core like ours. They may have some good players coming up in their system but there is no guarantee they will approach the similar level Petey, Hughes or Demko are at right now. Hence they need high picks to keep pumping into their system. Heck I’d be even ok with them trading away our own pick if the right deal came along. I personally do not believe there will be another good young RHD with reasonable cap hit made available but  who knows. I bet a lot of GMs were surprised Detroit was selling Hronek.

 

 

Edited March 30, 2023 by TiTaniuM

[DefCon1]

2 hours ago, OldFaithfulCap said:

Personally i don't think Rutherford is the answer. I don't think Tocchet is either but there are positive signs so it's reasonable to have optimism right now. I think the team should have gone in another direction but they aren't so just have to wait and see.

 

 

What direction is that? You mean trade everyone and Tank, wait 5 years and hope the players you drafted aren't Virtanen or Juolevi? While wasting 5 years of Hughes and Pettersson prime years? Or would you trade both of them because of the fear they could pull a Guadreau or Tkatchuk and sign elsewhere? I actually think the direction management chose is the only direction we have to keep the core in place and happy. We will still draft high this year and we got Hronek as well with the 2 draft picks. Hopefully they draft well. I don't know if our scouts were replaced but we don't even know how good they are at drafting with new management compared to the years when we had Judd Bracket in our scouting department. It is why am skeptical about the draft and their drafting abilities until I see the results. If they suck at drafting then it's not a good option for this team to have many picks.

[DefCon1]

6 minutes ago, TiTaniuM said:

Every decision JR/PA have made or should be making going forward must be centred around Petey, Hughes and Demko. Have we ever had young core or foundation of building a contender as good as they are now? How many rebuilding teams say over the last 20 years have been able to establish what we have now? Maybe a couple? I fully support the direction they set forth bringing in good, young players that can help now and next 3 to 5 years rather than ones that will be ready in 3 to 5 years. Detroit traded away an asset that rarely gets moved because they don’t have the core like ours. They may have some good players coming up in their system but there is no guarantee they will approach the similar level Petey, Hughes or Demko are at right now. Hence they need high picks to keep pumping into their system. Heck I’d be even ok with them trading away our own pick if the right deal came along. I personally do not believe there will be another good young RHD with reasonable cap hit made available but  who knows. I bet a lot of GMs were surprised Detroit was selling Hronek.

 

 

People also forget that we don't know how good is our drafting ability with new management and staff in place. If it's the same JR and Alvin who drafted in Pittsburgh then I rather trade picks for players like Hronek since they were not good at drafting. Picks are only valuable if you are good in drafting. If you suck at drafting and you keep drafting busts, then it's better to trade picks for younger, more established players. Now imagine if we traded all our players for picks then used those picks to draft busts. We would still be bottom 5 team 5 years down the road similar to teams like Arizona. I only agree to keep picks if the drafting ability is great. We had it in Benning era but am not sure about the JR/Alvin era. 

[IBatch]

Also one more thing about drafts.  The EP draft was considered underwhelming at the time.   Below average, and quite a bit lower than the previous drafts.   Starting with no "big name" for the hype machine.   Ended up being Nolan Patrick versus Hirschier ... not like Hall/Seguin (which Taylor to pick)  or the McDavid/Eichel draft which actually reminded me of the Modano/Linden draft.    As in a great consultation prize for second place.     

 

To me 2003 is the meat and potatoes all-time draft.    1979,1980, 1981, 1990, 1991 and 1984 and 1988 for sure ahead ...  Check those ones out.    There have been others too.   But those are > then 2003.   2005 was actually good too.    It is exciting to have a player hyped in the same way McDavid, Crosby, Daigle, Lindros were though.   

Edited March 30, 2023 by IBatch

[Bure_Pavel]

3 hours ago, spook007 said:

A few interesting notes...

 

The core now confirmed to incl Miller.

A second tier of Hronek, Kuz, Mika and........Bear (unless he prices himself out, he'll be here next season as well.

Changes are coming... Think we'll see a few high earners vacate the group this summer. Brock, Garland, Myers,and OEL (Beau? don't think so...) being the obvious ones, but there could easily be more.

If anyone was in doubt, they are aiming for playoffs next season and onwards.

The job at Abby is being recognised and rightfully so. The ease with which players have joined the the big club, without missing a beat speaks volume.

 

They are searching everywhere for free/cheap improvements to the team (same for everyone)...

 

Lets see next season. Action speaks louder than words, whether spoken or written, but so far most of the moves being made have been positive. One thing they did right, was moving Bo. The team hasn't skipped a step, so what was really needed was a fresh set of eyes to break it up... will be interesting to see how they go about getting rid of some of the 5 high earners mentioned earlier, and how they will improve on their positions without breaking cap...

3C, top 4 D's, some mustard in the bottom 6 on top of Joshua... maybe a 2nd line winger?

 

Interesting summer wheeling and dealing coming up...

Hronek, Kuz, Mika and........Bear  arent the second tier, those are just the players management has acquired this past year (just management pumping their own hammer).

[spook007]

6 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Hronek, Kuz, Mika and........Bear  arent the second tier, those are just the players management has acquired this past year (just management pumping their own hammer).

Well you may be right, but I read it as those are the olayers expected to be supporting the core... of course nobody is off limit, should an offer match, what the club think the players should be dealt for, and yes you're right they are pumping their own tires...

But I read it as that... Hronek will not be dealt after they tradrd for him, using a 1st and a 2nd round pick to aquire him. You'd also think, that Kuz is as close as possible to being part of the core as possible, unless he prices himself out of another deal. The last two not so much, but still....

[Bure_Pavel]

13 minutes ago, spook007 said:

Well you may be right, but I read it as those are the olayers expected to be supporting the core... of course nobody is off limit, should an offer match, what the club think the players should be dealt for, and yes you're right they are pumping their own tires...

But I read it as that... Hronek will not be dealt after they tradrd for him, using a 1st and a 2nd round pick to aquire him. You'd also think, that Kuz is as close as possible to being part of the core as possible, unless he prices himself out of another deal. The last two not so much, but still....

A little weird he didn't mention Boeser with the core and no mention of Beau with the new guys. Thinking two of Garland, Boeser (for sure), and Beau could be moved. Boeser and Beau would make the most sense, as Garland is locked down long term at a reasonable number. 

[BPA]

8 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

A little weird he didn't mention Boeser with the core and no mention of Beau with the new guys. Thinking two of Garland, Boeser (for sure), and Beau could be moved. Boeser and Beau would make the most sense, as Garland is locked down long term at a reasonable number. 

All three will be on the trading block with the hopes of moving at least 2 of them.  Canucks are flush with wingers and need the cap space.  

[Ghostsof1915]

I'd trade Hoglander for a late 2nd in 2024, and a late 3rd in 2023, if Arizona would bite.