[Discussion] Roberto Luongo Trade Thread 3.0

[King of the ES]

His value increases as the number of markets available to deal him increase. This number of markets opens as time increases due to these factors:

1. As Luongo theoretically gets benched behind Schneider to start the season, he becomes more anxious to start elsewhere. This opens up potential trade markets like Edmonton or Columbus that Luongo wouldn't previously consider. Sitting on the bench would make any starter want to play elsewhere.

[Get real canuck fans]

Huh? Luongo was fine last year. Schneider had better numbers, but he was also the backup, meaning more rest, and (in general) easier opposition.

My point this whole time has been that Luongo's good enough. IF Schneider's the better goalie - big "if", in my opinion - the variance between the two in performance is probably a lot less than the variance of the quality of package that Schneider could bring us back versus what Luongo could/will. And keeping Luongo, signed until 2022, would've just added stability to this team.

[King of the ES]

Schneider has more value to every team, including OURS because he is younger, cheaper and better,,so you want to trade him??????????

[oldnews]

Of course, none of you can see this

[WHL rocks]

I don't see that changing anything, the deciding factor regardless is who gets the better return. In theory at least.

off-topic - D-Money, you're back. I thought you swore off the boards until the lockout was over?

[Ossi Vaananen]

I'm not sure that you're understanding the ramifications of this decision for Luongo and his family. He's still got 9 years left on his deal. This isn't a deadline acquisition for a to-be UFA. You really think that Luongo's going to get antsy and make a decision like this, including uprooting his family, on a whim?

You're again not considering the magnitude of the commitment being taken on by the acquirer. Not a deadline acquisition. Not Sami Pahlsson. If you acquire Luongo, you're attaching yourself to that guy until 2022 (or earlier, if he chooses to retire, which is a choice of his, and not the team's).

Of course he's self-concerned. He bargained, in good faith, to get that NTC when he signed his contract, to protect himself against a terrible situation like the one that he's found himself in. I can't see him "settling" for a place like Columbus, simply because he wants to start. He's got a family to worry about - for the next 9 years of their life. Pretty major life decision that I can't imagine will be taken lightly.

Really, so my entire premise is wrong, but you're repeating exactly what I've said. OK.

[Get real canuck fans]

Not anymore. Luongo's as good as gone.

But overall, yes, I believe it would've made far more sense to have traded Schneider when his value was at its peak. Buying low and selling high is usually a pretty good principle - not the reverse, which is what we're currently doing with Luongo.

Does that register with you?

[Riviera82]

What happens if Luongo is still a Canuck when the season begins, he completely outplays Schneider and reclaims the starting position?

Does Gillis still trade him??

[King of the ES]

Well if i'm repeating what you've said then why do you argue against time not working to improve the trade?

[King of the ES]

Keeping an aging goalie who has struggled mightily at crucial times over the last 4 playoffs and not likely to get better is brilliant strategy.

[Riviera82]

Chicago: Trading him there without getting a big piece back (Hossa, Sharp, exc.) would be a career killer for MG. And I dont see any chance of them giving up a big piece. So what are we gunna get? Stalberg? They probably won't move Leddy, maybe Hjalmalsson but that's not a need we have a solid top 4, so what are we gunna get? Nothing, it won't work. if we give that core a star goaltender, then Idk how we will be able to beat them in the playoffs. This doesn't seem likely at all.

Tampa Bay: Stevie Y was interested in Schneider, the only way he wants Lu is if Lecavalier goes the other way, that's the only way. and No thanks to that, even if we only do have to eat up 3.5-4 million of it, (which might not even be the case, who knows what will be in CBA) but either way he isn't worth it, he isn't the 100 point player he was, he isn't even the 70 point player, who knoe's if he is even a 60 point player, I would say his best now is 40-50, he's aging, hes not worth the contract, I would rather just get Bozak rather than him. And they won't give us anything else that is really appealing.

New Jersey: If there playoff run proved anything it is that Marty Brodeur can still play at a high level, and with the contract they just signed him too there is no chance they will want Lu, and what are they gunna give us? They lost a few big pieces from there run, Parise, Ponikarovsky. So now that there line-up is greatly weaker what can they afford to give us? Nothing, it's not a likely scenerio at all.

Edmonton: Idk why Botch had to bring this up, there not going to give us anything big, and they dont really have alot that they could give us, plus it's probably not a huge priority for them, Dubnyk has been getting better and better, he has shown he can give them a chance to win and improving there defense is probably a much bigger priority for them as apposed to improving there goaltending. Very unlikely aswell.

Columbus: Lu won't waive his NTC to go there, and even if he would somehow, when you really think about it. why would they want him? sure a goalie like Luongo would be nice for them for sure but why would they want to do it at the price MG will want? They are a young team, they just lost there star, they aren't really in playoff contention, they are just building to a better future, why would they want to trade assets for a 33 year old goalie like Luongo. when those asset's could pay off in a much bigger way in the future when they are a good team? Unlikely aswell.

San Jose: They have Niemi, who is a starter and what are they gunna give us? Clowe. That's maybe it, but I dont know if they would do it and idk if I even want him, we wouldn't be able to get the same value and I highly doubt they even want him, Niemi has been fine, it's not Luongo is gunna be a huge difference maker, he's not gunna do a ton more than Niemi already has, that team has a decent goalie, they need to start getting younger and fix up some area's of there team, and right now I don't think goaltending is huge priority for them, not to mention there isn't alot they would be willing to part ways with. Again probably not likely.

Washington: They have 2 young goalies there, both played well (Neuvirth in the season, Holtby in the playoffs) those two can carry that team just fine as a tandem, then they can focus there assets on improving there forward group, and the rest of there skaters. There goaltending has been fine, it's not an issue at all as we saw in the playoffs, if anything it iss a strong point right now, they have other things to focus on.

Ottawa: Why? Anderson is fine for the time being and they have two good young goalies up and coming in Bishop and Lehner, then behind them Driedger isn't bad either. There team isn't ready to contend, last year was just a pleasant surprise, not saying they won't make the playoffs but right now they just have to go through this transition period where all there good young talent develops and replaces the old talent. This isn't them building into a cup contender. so since there not a contender, there is no reason to waste assets that could be better served later on.

NY Islanders: Similar thing to Columbus, they are young, they are waiting for there young talent to develop and the goaltending they have right now is good enough to hold the fort until Poulin can take the torch, and why would they want 2 goalies on lifetime contracts cause there is no way Dipietro is coming back our way.

Again, I dont see the same fit in any of these other teams like I do in Florida or Toronto, and right now Toronto seems the best.

[Ossi Vaananen]

You said that the best time would be before the season starts. That's what I've been saying this whole time.

I have not flip-flopped at all; is that all that you guys have as a retort? Where have I flip-flopped?

Luongo will not be worth more in February. Why? Because Gillis will be desperate to unload him, and bidders will adjust their offer. Gillis is far more eager to offload him than anyone will be to acquire him, which puts him in a weak spot.

And where have I acknowledged that Luongo's deal will be 4 - 5 years? I haven't. Unless Luongo decides to retire, it's to be assumed that it's going until 2022. I'm assuming that it's going until 2022.

And BTW, I'm pretty sure that Luongo's family has moved to Vancouver. They spend their off-seasons in Florida.

Number 1, stop saying that my position is frequently changing, because that's just false and you're just using the canned retort of this site, much like "he was injured!" is the automatic response for Canuck non-performers like Kesler in the playoffs.

You haven't proven anything false. That is funny that you're asserting your opinion as fact, though. Nice work. "The needs of other teams" isn't going to change much - who needs a goalie? Make a list of the teams that might have a realistic interest in Luongo - not many. That list will then need to be whittled to teams that Luongo either won't go to, or Gillis won't trade him to. Shrinks even more. Other teams' need will always be a secondary concern. Mike Gillis will want to unload Luongo more than anyone will want to acquire him. That's what you're missing. Think Vancouver's keen to pay their backup goaltender $5.3M per year? Who's under pressure here?

[Riviera82]

Is he the only Canuck that's struggled? Where was Burrows this year? Kesler? Booth?

Where were the twins in the SCF? Where was Kesler?

[King of the ES]

I'm not even going to acknowledge your attempt to be condescending. I'm giving you the opportunity once again, for everyone who views this topic, state clearly your viewpoint on the Luongo trade. You will then be held to it. As you seem to claim the assertions are false, then prove me wrong.

[Smashian Kassian]

I've stated clearly the same viewpoint since Day 1. That is that this whole event has been badly mishandled by Canuck management, and now we're stuck trading Luongo, who's still very good, at a time when he has very little marketability.

There has been no flip-flopping in my position whatsoever. I would rather have moved Schneider - sold high - and kept Luongo. But that's not happening.

[Pears]

Is he the only Canuck that's struggled? Where was Burrows this year?

[oldnews]

[King of the ES]

Of course you would think that 28 goals and 50+ points is 'struggling'.

[RUPERTKBD]

I meant in the playoffs. The discussion was related to Luongo not being able to be counted on when the pressure was on.

[King of the ES]

I won't argue that Luongo has had his share of playoff struggles, however, I think it's a bit unfair to say the same of Burrows.

Yes, he had a tough 2012 playoffs, but so did the entire Canucks' roster. (with the possible exception of the goaltenders) fact is, they ran into a very hot goaltender, on a team that was just hitting their stride, without their top goal scorer (a Burrows' linemate) in the lineup.

Tough for anyone to put up numbers in that situation...