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BC General Election May 14, 2013 - Non Flammable Edition - WARNING NO FLAMING

Wetcoaster

By Wetcoaster
in Off-Topic General

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Dazzle Canucks Franchise Player

Dazzle

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It's going to be a close one.

Not a lot of great options out there, including the Liberals. When I was voting, I was actually considering Unparty - lol. Fringe party, yes.

It's really sad to see people voting to change government for the sake of changing government. The Liberals aren't a good option, yet the NDP's campaign has been one of the laziest that I've seen in years. Their platform is non-existent, vague and reeking of desperation. They're relying on the fact that the public, rightfully so, are tired of the Liberals in power.

Then again, the Liberals are desperate too but they keep shooting themselves in the foot. Truth is, neither of these parties will really benefit me in any way but I have no real choice. I wish that I could have voted something else. As it stands, my vote is very lukewarm. But at least I voted.

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Wetcoaster

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As I noted above the poll numbers differ and parties have much more detailed polling being done internally as Christy Clark recently explained to the Vancouver Sun editorial board. And as Vaughn Palmer notes if the BC LIberals in fact do lose as is probable it will not be on the order of the 2001 election when the BC NDP were reduced to 2 seats. The BC Liberals should maintain a sizable number of seats and form an effective Official Opposition.

Vaughn Palmer: Hungry NDP likely to win on Tuesday, but Christy Clark has earned a consolation prize

Premier Christy Clark lost no time Friday dismissing the latest opinion poll, which had her B.C. Liberals still trailing the New Democratic Party as campaign 2013 headed into the final weekend.

“I don’t know how many times I’ve had this discussion,” said Clark when asked about the NDP’s six-point lead during a session with The Vancouver Sun editorial board. “I’m going to ask you to go back and look at the 8,000 other comments about the value of the kind of polling that you (media) guys focus on.”

The survey in question was conducted by Ipsos Reid for Global TV and aired on the station’s noontime broadcast, about the same time that the results were relayed to Clark.

“We don’t rely on that type of information,” Clark continued. Instead her B.C. Liberals, like other political parties, poll in much greater depth and do so pretty much every day, with the focus on key ridings instead of provincewide results.

Those internal findings have her insisting publicly that the party is still “competitive” with the NDP where it needs to be, in order to win enough seats (43 is the minimum) to secure a fourth term.

During the same editorial board session, she also scoffed at speculation that her own seat might be up for grabs Tuesday. “I’m rolling my eyes right now,” was her reply when that speculation was put to her by a reporter participating via a conference call.

This close to voting day, with the gap in the polls less than half what it was at the outset of the campaign, there was nothing else for her to say on either score.

But both responses — not a whisper of a doubt in either — were illustrative of the relentless optimism that Clark has manifested throughout this campaign, going back to the days when the Liberals were being written off in all but a dozen or so seats.

Her closest friends and supporters predicted this all along. Through the darkest days of her term — the misbegotten ethnic memo, the dead-on-arrival throne speech, the faltering jobs numbers, the ... well, it is a long, long list — even many Liberals were speculating that she would somehow be forced out.

Again and again, reporters and pundits were told that we were “nuts” to expect that Clark would give up the premier’s office without one crack at a provincial election.

Politics was in her blood. She loved the game. She’d honed her communications skills during a successful turn in talk radio. She was a great campaigner.

She was supremely confident that, given 28 days on the hustings, she could make a better impression with the voters than the untried, awkward, bookish Adrian Dix.

I had my doubts. But she has proven to be a good campaigner, never mind that much of the content of her campaign has more to do with attacking the New Democrats or overselling her own accomplishments than presenting a credible vision for the future.

Some of the lustre of her campaign style even managed to make her look like a better fit for the office she assumed two years ago. The Ipsos survey had her narrowly edging Dix (albeit within the margin of error) as the “best premier,” 34 points to 31 points.

Not to suggest that either of them has wowed the electorate as well fitted for high office. But the result does tend to substantiate her observation that when governing, your performance is compared to perfection; when campaigning, you are being judged against your opponent.

Turning to the NDP’s reading of the electoral situation as the campaign entered its final weekend, there was some concern about the Greens cutting into the NDP chances of winning in some ridings.

Time was when NDP leader Adrian Dix preached that it was “hugely disrespectful to voters” to suggest there was anything wrong with voting for one of the alternatives to the two main parties. But then the main prospect for vote splitting was the Conservatives siphoning support from the Liberals.

On Friday, the NDP rolled out former premier Mike Harcourt for an event in Oak Bay, where he warned “those of you who are thinking about voting Green” that the only way to ensure a progressive government was “by voting NDP.”

Hugely disrespectful of the voters? Or proof positive that the New Democrats are desperate to prevent Andrew Weaver, the Green candidate in Oak Bay, from establishing a beachhead on the floor of the legislature?

Otherwise, the New Democrats maintain, based on their own internal polling and contrasting with the Liberal claim to competitiveness, that they are ahead in enough places to win a comfortable majority in the 50-seat range. And for me that is the plausible outcome.

The NDP is better organized, better at identifying its vote, better at getting it out to the polls. The party vote is more evenly distributed around the province, giving it an advantage over the Liberals in a close finish. The New Democrats are more united behind their leader. Plus they are hungrier, having been out of power for a dozen years.

On that basis, the odds continue to favour a change of government next week. But it now appears as if the voters will award Clark the consolation prize of electing a good-sized Liberal Opposition to hold the New Democrats to account.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/2035/Vaughn+Palmer+Hungry+likely+Tuesday+Christy+Clark+earned+consolation+prize/8369717/story.html#ixzz2T6P2tngG

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Wetcoaster

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Like Vaughn Palmer, Mike Smyth is of the opinion that the Christy Clark led BC Liberals are not likely to win re-election but that she has run a very good campaign and has made what seemed an easy victory for Adrian Dix and the BC NDP into a race.

So it seems that Clark's "Once upon a time" fairy tale ending is not likely.

Smyth: Clark still focused on fairy-tale ending — but B.C.'s desire for change may be too great to overcome

After starting this election campaign 20 points behind in the polls, all Christy Clark wants to talk about now is making history.

Though the NDP still lead — especially in riding-rich Metro Vancouver, where the election will likely be won or lost — Clark has pulled the left-for-dead Liberals into surprising contention.

But what if she loses? I asked Clark if she would stay on as Opposition leader, and she was miffed by the question.

“Would you ask Adrian Dix that?” she snapped, referring to her NDP rival.

“I don’t spend a speck of time thinking about what would happen, except to work toward a win.

“Nobody goes into the Stanley Cup finals thinking, ‘Oh, gee, I wonder what golf clubs I should put in my bag for tomorrow?’ They’re thinking. ‘How am I going to win?’”

Clark’s path to a shocking upset victory is still a rocky one, though.

The polling numbers surged in her direction since the TV debate, but not enough to erase Dix’s advantage.

But the mere fact a Liberal upset win is being discussed as a possibility is an amazing thing for a politician and a party written off more times than a three-martini lunch.

“Throughout this entire campaign I have focused on jobs and the economy,” Clark said.

“People are really switched on now to these economic questions. I’m heartened by that.”

I’d say the Liberals are more than “heartened” the campaign has been framed around their core issues — more like “amazed” the NDP let them get away with it.

It’s only now the NDP are finally running ads focused on the Liberals’ record of scandal and mismanagement: the HST double-cross, the $6-million B.C. Rail plea bargain, the millions more spent on brazenly partisan government ads.

After sleep-walking through most of the campaign — and allowing Clark to take the offensive — Dix’s late-rounds counter-punching may have done enough to stop the NDP’s slide in the polls.

But Dix has still been out-worked, out-hustled and out-campaigned by Clark.

By inexplicably ignoring the Liberal record in the early days of the campaign, he allowed Clark to take the initiative on her strongest issues.

By refusing to say precisely what he would do — on the labour code, fracking, raw-log exports, balancing the budget — Dix provoked voter anxiety about his real agenda.

To extend Clark’s hockey metaphor, the NDP played like a team with a 6-0 lead that goes into a defensive shell in the third period — only to be shocked by a 6-5 score with a minute left to play.

Dix has been too cautious, too defensive. Liberal campaign manager Mike McDonald has been easily available to the media, NDP campaign manager Brian Topp has refused to speak to the press.

What does it all tell you? They didn’t want to make a mistake; didn’t want to take a risk. In the process, the NDP let Clark back into the fight.

But, despite a gutsy effort, a 12-year Liberal record may have been too much for Clark to shake off, and voters’ desire for change may have simply been too much to overcome.

Despite the gains Christy Clark has made — especially in rural regions of the province — the NDP’s edge in Metro Vancouver may prove decisive.

If Dix runs the table in Vancouver, Surrey, Burnaby and the Tri-Cities, it won’t matter if Clark punches through in the province’s north and interior.

And then there are the internal problems. There are people in the Liberal party who never wanted Clark as leader, and the knives may come out soon after the votes are counted.

In the waning days of the campaign, Global TV reported on a Liberal splinter group that calls itself the “801 Club.” Their mission: begin the movement to dump Clark, starting at 8:01 p.m. on Tuesday, one minute after the polls close.

“I am not going to let them distract me,” Clark said of Liberal dissidents.

“They want to defeat us and what we’re trying to do. I am not going to let them put their personal agenda before the agenda of the province.”

Her own agenda now is to shock the world, prove the naysayers wrong, and complete the most amazing comeback in B.C. political history.

Fairy tales do come true sometimes. But usually not. Voters will write the ending to this one on Tuesday.

http://www.theprovince.com/sports/Smyth+Clark+still+focused+fairy+tale+ending+desire+change+great+overcome/8372627/story.html#ixzz2T6XhOQM5

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RUPERTKBD Canucks Hall-of-Famer

RUPERTKBD

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In response to 'Coaster's earlier post about the NDP being concerned about the Green votes splitting the left, I noticed yesterday that a friend of mine had an NDP sign on his lawn.

Now this is nothing unusual. Here in the Northwest, the NDP has had the upper hand forever, but what made it interesting is that my friend is a hardcore environmentalist. He writes a column for the local weekly rag about environmental issues and rarely travels in a vehicle, instead preferring to walk, or ride his bike.

I was actually quite surprised to see anything but a Green endorsement from him, but apparently, it's all about beating the Liberals...

On another note, I took my daughter and her best friend down to the polling station yesterday, where they both voted for the first time. Even though I'm fairly certain that they voted NDP, I was nonetheless quite proud of them. ;)

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Wetcoaster

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On another note, I took my daughter and her best friend down to the polling station yesterday, where they both voted for the first time. Even though I'm fairly certain that they voted NDP, I was nonetheless quite proud of them. ;)

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DonLever Canucks Third-Line

DonLever

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The reason the Liberals are gaining on the NDP is the spltting of the right is NOT occurring due to the lackluster performance of the Conservative Leader John Cummins. Mr. Cummins has done very poorly. He comes across as very dull, old, tired. You could see that the BC Conservatives have dropped like a stone in the polls.

The net result is a gain for the Liberals as right wing voters have a choice between NDP and the Liberal. I suppose they have to hold their nose and vote for the Liberals to keep the NDP out of power.

The role of the Greens is interesting. Will green people vote for the NDP to keep the Liberals? Or will green people stick with the Green Party, thus possibly spltting the left wing vote so that more Liberals will win.

It is interesting to see the Liberals on Vancouver Island taking ads out to tout the Greens as an alternative to the NDP. They see vote splitting as the only way to get seats there.

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