Intoewsables Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I still don't like the idea of taking a "leap of faith" and trusting Gally here. We've seen the Mafia sacrifice one of their own before, and with 26 people in this game, they likely have a rather large team that could afford to take a risk like this. Maybe I'm just paranoid, but I don't know. I'd hate to see Gally work his way into a TP alliance without being confirmed by the Sheriff first. Link to comment
Kryten Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 It just seems so unlikely but ok, point taken. Link to comment
Intoewsables Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 It just seems so unlikely but ok, point taken. Link to comment
Aladeen Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Is it, though? If there's a team of, say, 7-8 Mafia, the Lackey actually has a decent chance of nailing one of them in the first round. This is the second game in a row that the Lackey has blocked the Mafia in the first round. It's ballsy and not something I'd do if I were Mafia, but I don't think it's far-fetched to believe that it's a possibility. Link to comment
Kryten Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Is it, though? If there's a team of, say, 7-8 Mafia, the Lackey actually has a decent chance of nailing one of them in the first round. This is the second game in a row that the Lackey has blocked the Mafia in the first round. It's ballsy and not something I'd do if I were Mafia, but I don't think it's far-fetched to believe that it's a possibility. Link to comment
Not A Fruit Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Agreed, Gally shouldn't be trusted just yet. We need a spokesperson for the sheriff eventually. I'm fine with being investigated and being a confirmed TP even if it's just for a few rounds since the mafia will eventually kill me. Link to comment
Intoewsables Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Even then, I still think unlikely is a fair description Link to comment
King Heffy Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Is it, though? If there's a team of, say, 7-8 Mafia, the Lackey actually has a decent chance of nailing one of them in the first round. This is the second game in a row that the Lackey has blocked the Mafia in the first round. It's ballsy and not something I'd do if I were Mafia, but I don't think it's far-fetched to believe that it's a possibility. Link to comment
King Heffy Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 If the Sheriff can insulate himself and contact Gally via spokesperson, I think the vig has to take the risk himself. It's more obvious if the vig is killed than the others. If the vig is iced quickly/lackey blocked, Gally is almost certainly mafia. Link to comment
Snake Doctor Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I agree with Radishes plan Link to comment
Master Radishes Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I still don't like the idea of taking a "leap of faith" and trusting Gally here. We've seen the Mafia sacrifice one of their own before, and with 26 people in this game, they likely have a rather large team that could afford to take a risk like this. Maybe I'm just paranoid, but I don't know. I'd hate to see Gally work his way into a TP alliance without being confirmed by the Sheriff first. Link to comment
Aladeen Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 You are. It would be an incredibly risky and potentially very stupid move for the Mafia to purposely target one of their own for a 33% chance the Lackey will block them. You say you wouldn't do it, and I know I wouldn't do it. Which players do you think would have the balls to try it? Seriously, imagine the 66% likely scenario where we see this at Nightfall: Gally [Mafia Kill: Mafia] Gally is 99% confirmed TP, just as JE was last game. Link to comment
Master Radishes Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 While I am inclined to agree, no real negative comes from killing off one of their own, other than to lose a mafia member. The risk isn't that huge so long as the player being sacrificed doesn't mind dying. Again I wouldn't volunteer for that job but others might. Link to comment
Master Radishes Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 First off MR was a tad off with his summary. I felt I was the one starting the call out on Lemons just to start the blood flowing and get some posts happening. I was writing at the time Aladeen posted so I had no idea he was about to say the same thing. Link to comment
Aladeen Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Losing one of their own isn't always a big deal. Losing one of their own unnecessarily is a big deal. This is a numbers game, and any Mafia which kills off one of their own(in the first round, no less) is simply making it harder for their team to win. I seriously think some of you are overthinking this. If we really need extra confirmation then the Sheriff can investigate Gally today. Link to comment
Master Radishes Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I don't think the sheriff should investigate Gally as most likely it would be a waste, but that is up to him or her (That's for you Hodor). If Gally is Mafia,then we are all pretty much screwed anyways and I do think the chances are very small. I would always be willing to bet on 85% odds lol. Link to comment
VICanucksfan5551 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Vote Peaches The way the BW vote gained so much steam, despite his TP-like reaction, and the way the susraiders vote suddenly emerged at the last minute has me suspicious. Peaches can be tough to read, but his voting pattern looks suspect to me and the whole "I'm the doctor" thing certainly raises lots of questions. Link to comment
Reigning Champ Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Sorry I've been away for a bit, no good Internet access, anyway, anyone want to fill me in? Link to comment
Master Radishes Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Alright, let's delve a little deeper in now. I'll use Spoiler tags to make things easier to scroll through. Disclaimer: remember, any analysis is based solely off their voting pattern, with occasional noting of their justifications and motives. This is only one method of examining events; it's the one I like to use, but it's not the only one to consider. Lemons vote: 1) Mikeyboy begins the vote on admittedly flimsy evidence, but explained his actions later as an attempt to get activity going. This doesn't clear him, but it's hardly suspicious. 2) Peaches votes 3) Intoewsables votes 4) Susraiders votes 5) Beluga (TP) votes 6) Kryten votes, but almost immediately backs off, realising the bandwagon went up too fast for his liking. Kryten is a smart guy, but this is a TP-friendly move, and in line with his character. So Peaches, Intoewsables, and Susraiders are the suspects from this vote. Beluga was the one actually called out for it, but he turned out to be TP. Nonetheless, it would not be shocking to see a Mafia name among the other three. Intoewsables later said he was essentially trying to do the same thing as Mikeyboy, start up a bandwagon and see who leaps on board. Still, that's easy for him to say after the fact. In Peaches' defense, it would be a pretty bad move for a Mafia to bandwagon so quickly; too obvious. The 4th spot (susraiders) is the most likely "bandwagon" spot for a Mafia to slip in; and susraiders came out of nowhere to do it, whereas the others had at least been contributing to the thread beforehand. (Also, I'd say Beluga's 5th vote was just as bad, but we know he's TP now, so...) Link to comment
Reigning Champ Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Vote Susraiders Link to comment
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