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Predict how long before we are elite


Lui's Knob

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Law of average dictates 14-15 years since 2011 which is about 11-12 years now.

1982 - 1994 = 12 years

1994 - 2010 = 17 years

17 years + 12 years / 2 = 14.5 years

Therefore including the fact that Gary Bettmen is still the commissioner of the NHL, we will have the as much of a chance to win the cup as our odds to make it to the playoffs which is 4% currently.

Therefore if it is a 4% chance and we have made it to final twice while Bettmen's at the helm

= 100% / 4%

= 25 - 2

= 23| 23 stanley cup appearances are required to win the Cup

= 23 * 14.5years = Within 333.5 years we will the win the Cup.

*Considering that Gary Bettmen is actually immortal and survives that long. Will post thread on odds of that later.

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Unfortunate to say, but it all depends on how the Sedins, and to a lesser extent Burrows, respond next season.

You could also throw Edler's name in there...-28? yikes. I think it is in our best interest to hold on to him, as we are not getting much for him with those stats... plus the fact that he has a NTC....................ugh

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Law of average dictates 14-15 years since 2011 which is about 11-12 years now.

1982 - 1994 = 12 years

1994 - 2010 = 17 years

17 years + 12 years / 2 = 14.5 years

Therefore including the fact that Gary Bettmen is still the commissioner of the NHL, we will have the as much of a chance to win the cup as our odds to make it to the playoffs which is 4% currently.

Therefore if it is a 4% chance and we have made it to final twice while Bettmen's at the helm

= 100% / 4%

= 25 - 2

= 23| 23 stanley cup appearances are required to win the Cup

= 23 * 14.5years = Within 333.5 years we will the win the Cup.

*Considering that Gary Bettmen is actually immortal and survives that long. Will post thread on odds of that later.

Hello, Sheldon? Sheldon Cooper? Is that you?

I love it, man! I don't know if this was meant to be totally serious or a bit of a joke, but it sure go a huge LOL outta' me! Good on ya', mate. Thanks.

I think 2018-2019'ish sounds about right. However IMO, we won't reach the finals till sometime after that; 3 GM's, 5 Coaches and a dozen goaltenders later...................

Go Canucks Go!

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It's funny, I love how people are predicting time frames when only couple of changes have happened. This question is better served after the season when we can see what they start off with next season. If this team is blown up then all bets are off for time frames.

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I'm going to make my time frame based on a few assumptions:

1. We miss the playoffs this year
2. Trade Kes at the draft
3. Our management is then replaced
4. We bottom-feed for 2014-15 and then get a top 10 pick at the draft...

...the rest would be conjecture. But I'm calling for a Stanley Cup calibre team by our 50th Anniversary season (2020-21).

(Okay that's all conjecture...but all I know is that it's a long shot that we go anywhere if we squeak in this year, so I'd rather restructure and plan to avoid the embarrassment that is going 50 years without a championship.)

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In all honesty? 20+ years is my best guess. In the Canucks 44 year history, they were only considered elite for two seasons, 2011 and 2012 (winning President's Trophy). I'm not being pessimistic, just realistic. Look at Edmonton, they haven't been elite since the 80s, over 20 years ago. The Leafs haven't been elite since what, the 60s? In all reality, it doesn't look like it will happen anytime soon.

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Next year.

The team has a bunch of capspace to work with for a change.

The youth are pushing and are going to create much better depth in the organization. This has been a year with a fourth line that plays 3-5 minutes. I think that changes drastically in the very near future.

When Hank, Daniel, maybe Kesler, Richardson, Santorelli (no brainer imo to re-sign him), Burrows etc regain their health.

Currently 6.6 million in cap space.

Cap likely to rise 4.5 to 6.5 million. Projected 11.4 for next year.

Booth 4.25 cleared - 15.7.

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
canucks 2014/15
FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($7.000m) / Henrik Sedin ($7.000m) / Alexandre Burrows ($4.500m)
Paul Stastny ($6.600m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Zack Kassian ($1.300m)
Chris Higgins ($2.500m) / Brad Richardson ($1.150m) / Jannik Hansen ($2.500m)
Nicklas Jensen ($0.863m) / Shawn Matthias ($1.750m) / Mike Santorelli ($2.000m)
Tom Sestito ($0.750m) / Jordan Schroeder ($0.660m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m) / Jason Garrison ($4.600m)
Alexander Edler ($5.000m) / Chris Tanev ($3.000m)
Ryan Stanton ($0.550m) / Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m)
Andrew Alberts ($0.600m) / Frank Corrado ($0.591m)
Yannick Weber ($0.715m) /
GOALTENDERS
Eddie Lack ($1.150m)
Jacob Markstrom ($1.200m)


BUYOUTS
David Booth ($0.000m)
Keith Ballard ($0.000m)
RETAINED SALARIES (1.13% of upper limit)
Roberto Luongo ($0.800m—15.00%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $70,879,444; BONUSES: $8,333
CAP SPACE (25-man roster): $220,556



Roster assuming only Jensen is prepared to step up - hardest after Stastny on the UFA market - perhaps flip the AVs a late pick for his rights before July 1st and try to get him signed - he seems to the the guy in the odd man out position in Colorado.

The fourth line is vastly improved - essentially a 2nd/3rd tweener line that can play a much larger role than the current version. Jensen can push Kassian for those top 6 RW minutes. Someone else may emerge from the wealth of young talent developing. Santorelli and Matthias are easily capable of moving up the lineup - an elite fourth line.

The third line is back to being an elite third line - Higgins and Hansen are capable of 40pt seasons as 3rd liners, particularly with a workhorse like Richardson.

The second line is vastly improved with an outstanding two-way, playmaking Stastny - a more than capable center if Kesler is to be moved.

That 1st line if healty with the support the rest of that forward group provides - will be very productive again.

Lots of flexibility and ability to take cap back in any potential deals, or create more cap space and flexibility if dealing a veteran for youth and futures. This assuming Horvat, Gaunce, etc don't force their way onto the roster, making it even deeper.

Canucks contend in 2014/15.



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