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Hansen - NHL's First Star of the Week


Fateless

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Has been a steal since the day they drafted him in the 9th round, 287th overall.

All he's done since then....

Has been for cap hits of 508k, 550k, 850k, 1.35million and now 2.5 million. And folks are daft enough to complain about him. The only real hiccup in his career came last year when he has two serious in-season shoulder injuries - and still scored 20 points in typical relatively hard minutes. He's always been a versatile, valuable player - the type you win with, that puts teams over the top. What we're seeing now is more of the same we've seen for years. He's playing with some complementary linemates - he and Dorsett are ;the other twins' imo - enjoying some mismatches against a lower quality of competition than he's used to facing - and he's taking full advantage of it. Couldn't have happened to a more deserving guy. He and Edler really deserved to get some of the CDC monkeys off their backs.

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Tell Hansen his job is to score, he doesn't score much.

Tell him to PK, forecheck, and shutdown, he ends up scoring. I think the lower playing time actually helps in cuz he can put more energy into each shift. He's not as effective when he tries to play like a cycling Sedin.

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http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=740725&navid=nhl:topheads

No-hands Hansen has proven the haters wrong.

I must say that this is quite the feat as Hansen beat out both Tatar and Benn for the first-star acknowledgement.

Its strange to see a player who can't perform with the Sedins, but when given 4th line minutes, he excels beyond belief.

What are your guys thoughts on why he flourishes on the fourth line, yet not elsewhere?

When with the Sedins he up against the best defenders in the league.

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Sid - you are the only guy on these boards that has changed my perspective/attitude towards certain players. Why aren't you writing for the Province or the Sun? Great post.

That's considerably better than anything I've ever read in the Sun or Province. He's better off staying right here.

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Bloody impressive.

The issue with Hansen is that he's a solid bottom 9 player. He can pull shifts on the 2nd line and excels in a 3rd and 4th line role.

People climb all over him constantly for doing nothing more than everything he's asked to do. Not his fault coaches slot him into the top 6 regularly when they see just how well he does in the bottom 6 doing everything from PK to forecheck to scoring and shutting down opposing teams' forwards.

The guy does it all and we just dump on him for doing ti with a great cap hit.

He deserves this accolade as he's earned it.

sounds like what burrows did in his early days and everyone loved him lol

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Sid....as someone who can be a bit long-winded myself, I appreciate all the thought and work that went into your post. You are someone who thinks the game, not just feels the game. If more Canucks fans were like you in their approach to hockey, Vancouver would not be a goalie graveyard. There wouldn't have been riots. Former players who were great for us wouldn't be booed. People would think of Canucks fans as classy and intelligent instead of immature, ignorant troglodytes. We would demand more from the sports journalists in Vancouver, upping the overall quality of reporting. More players would want to come to Vancouver. More players would want to stay in Vancouver.

My hat is off to you, sir.

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Wow. Thanks to everyone for their comments re: my post on the first page. I really appreciate the kind words.

As to the suggestions that I could take my act to the local papers, it's really nice to get that feedback and I'd love to have the chance to write more formal pieces for a larger audience, but my wife already thinks I spend too much time thinking and writing about this team, so I'll probably have to leave things as they are currently (with me dropping a couple lengthy posts in random threads every week).

Over the years, I have turned down a few offers to write on blogs and hockey sites. Just don't have the time in my life to be able to meet deadlines consistently, so it's always been "thanks but no thanks" from me.

I'm not sure what I'd say if a newspaper actually contacted me though. It would be pretty tough to say no. But it's not something I've ever really considered.

With the addition of 2 1/2 year old twins to an already busy life, I'm spending even less time on the boards and I just can't follow the team to the same extent as I used to.

Still, there is the occasional week where I get some great feedback on something I've written and when I tell my wife about it, she suggests that I should get out there and "monetize that s---!" (to quote her). Maybe one day, but right now, I think I'll just post here for free and whenever I have the spare time (which is increasingly rare).

Anyway, just wanted to respond to some of the suggestions and comments. And thanks again for saying all that stuff--it's always nice to hear that people appreciate one of my posts. :)

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While there's no question that Hansen has failed to convert on some glorious chances with the twins, it's a mistake for anyone to believe that he's been unable to "perform" with them. The fact is that, even with all the missed chances, Hansen's overall results with the Sedins have always been very good.

To understand this, people need to look at Hansen as a complimentary player, and examine how the Canucks' on-ice 5 man unit tends to perform when Hansen plays with the Sedins (and for stats purposes, let's focus on Hansen with Henrik).

As far as this season goes, no forward has had better 5v5 numbers with the twins in 2014-15 than Jannik Hansen. During Hansen's minutes with Henrik this year, the Canucks (as a team) have produced 1.396 goals-for per 20:00 5v5TOI (GF20). For comparison's sake, Vrbata's rate is 0.866 GF20, and Burrows, Vey, and Kassian have produced 0.000 GF20 (zero goals during 5v5 play). Over the season to-date, Henrik has averaged 0.827 GF20 (with all teammates), meaning that Hansen's presence on the Sedin line has actually boosted their goal-scoring production by a whopping 169% this season.

One can only imagine how dominant that line would have been if Hansen had finished his chances. Then again, if Hansen finished all the chances he seems to generate, he'd probably be a candidate for the Rocket Richard. ;)

Even during his horrible season under Tortorella (Hansen's worst performance of his entire NHL career) saw him still put-up decent numbers during his minutes with the twins. During 2013-14, Henrik had a 0.947 GF20 with Hansen, which was better than his 0.828 GF20 average (with all teammates). And, as usual, Hansen's presence on the Sedin line boosted the overall performance of the team, dropping average goals-against from 0.558 GA20 to 0.516 GA20 and raising on-ice GF% (goals-for/total goals) from 59.7% to 64.7%.

But probably the most instructive statistic is to look at the career numbers for Hansen and the twins over the 7-year period from 2007-14 (which includes Hansen's worst season last year but excludes this year). During that period, Hansen played a total of 566:41 5v5TOI with Henrik, which is a fairly decent sized sample to look at. Henrik's average for that period (which includes his best career numbers) looks like this:

1.068 GF20 0.659 GA20 61.8 GF% 20.15 CF20 15.94 CA20 55.8 CF%

That's a very impressive stats line.

But take a look at Henrik's line when playing with Hansen over the same period:

1.094 GF20 0.529 GA20 67.4 GF% 20.29 CF20 15.88 CA20 56.1 CF%

That's improvement across the board. Higher goals-for, lower goals-against, better Corsi. Sure the differences are modest but it's still striking that Henrik's on-ice numbers are all better when playing with Hansen that they've been when he plays without him.

And it's even more impressive when you consider that Hansen played close to half of those minutes during the disastrous Tortorella season when the twins went through lengthy slumps. And that Hansen doesn't have the advantage of playing many minutes with the twins during the seasons when they were winning scoring titles.

Overall, Hansen's 5v5 numbers while playing with the twins are right in line with the Sedin's "best" wingers, with on-ice goal production rates being pretty similar between Burrows (1.168), Samuelsson (1.196), Hansen (1.094), and Kesler (1.217). And sure, Hansen's rate is the lowest of that group, but not by all that much. And in terms of goals-for versus goals-against (GF%), Hansen's numbers with Henrik are the best of the bunch at 67.4% (Burrows: 66.1%, Samuelsson: 56.0%, Kesler: 62.5%). In fact, no Canucks winger has produced a better on-ice GF% playing with the Sedins than Jannik Hansen (for the period from 2007-14).

Basically, that means that the Canucks have scored only slightly less 5v5 goals/minute when they've iced a first line with Hansen than they have with the twins' "best" historical RWers. And while there's a slight drop-off in scoring, the corresponding reduction in goals-against that can be attributed to Hansen is one that has arguably made the line (and the team) more effective overall.

So Hansen's actually been a very good even strength winger for the twins, even with all those missed chances. The team itself does very well when they ice a Sedin-Sedin-Hansen line. And like I said before: if Hansen actually had a better conversion rate on scoring chances, that line would be elite, as opposed to just excellent. That's the difference we're talking about. It's not good versus bad. It's elite versus excellent (and I'm fine with getting excellent numbers out of Hansen when he's needed for injury relief or spot duty with the twins).

By now, I'd hope that the numbers are enough to convince people that Hansen's actually been very good as an even strength option for the Sedin line. He doesn't hurt the team and you could actually argue that he helps the twins perform better. But what about the PP?

Hansen's just awful on the power play, right? It's fine for him to sub-in on the 1st line at even strength, but he should never play with the twins during the man advantage. This seems to be the conventional wisdom around here.

So what's the reality?

Over the seven seasons from 2007-14, when Hansen's been on the power play, the team has produced 5.30 goals/60 and has had a 100% GF% (they've given up zero short-handed goals with Hansen on the ice). That's not a great scoring rate (compared to Henrik at 7.00 GF60, Daniel's 6.99, or Kesler's 7.66), but we're talking about a substitute player and injury relief here, and not a preferred option for the 1st PP unit. So when the big guns get hurt, who should the Canucks call upon to fill the void?

Well, here are the (2007-14) on-ice 5v4 numbers for current Canucks (with samples of 100 minutes+):

Burrows: 5.31 GF60

Higgins: 4.39 GF20

Kassian: 3.71 GF20

And here's what the new guys produced with their previous teams:

Vrbata: 5.73 GF20

Bonino: 6.83 GF20

So when Vrbata went down with an injury, who should the Canucks have put on the 1st unit? Bonino's numbers are excellent, and maybe he deserved a chance to play with the twins on the man advantage. But let's not forget that the Canucks are using a power play scheme that relies on having righthanded shooters on-ice with the Sedins. So that really leaves Hansen and Kassian (with Vey already having a regular spot--until recently). I agree with many others that Kassian has the skill set to be an effective presence (I'd like to see him tried out in the "Kesler spot" off the left halfboards). But past results suggest that Hansen's a better option, in terms of pure numbers, and certainly a safer one (since Kassian's 1.39 GA60 means that the Canucks get burned for almost one short handed goal for every 3 they score with Kassian on the man advantage--which is the worst rate of any Canuck).

So does Hansen reduce power play effectiveness? Yes. The Canucks score less PP goals/60 with Hansen on the 1st unit than they do with their ideal configuration. But when guys are injured, do the Canucks have better options (especially given their righthand shot schemes)? I really don't think so (at least not yet--I'm hopeful that Kassian will improve but he needs to hone those skills on the 2nd unit IMHO).

Is Hansen a bad performer on the power play? Not really.

Anyway, I should probably wrap this up as I know I've lost half of the readers already (TL;DR) and many of those who are still reading are having their eyes glaze over by now. But I hope the point has been made about the results of Hansen's actual history playing with the twins (both the current 2014-15 season and over the previous seven seasons from 2007-14).

And I suppose this needs to be said (just in case there's any misunderstanding): I would never suggest Hansen is the best winger for the twins. But when there are injuries, I'm sure as **** glad this team has him available as an option.

Almost didn't read. Saw who wrote this and I did read it. Always read Sid's posts, no matter the length. Can't say I've ever disagreed with any of his posts.

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Has been a steal since the day they drafted him in the 9th round, 287th overall.

All he's done since then....

Has been for cap hits of 508k, 550k, 850k, 1.35million and now 2.5 million. And folks are daft enough to complain about him. The only real hiccup in his career came last year when he has two serious in-season shoulder injuries - and still scored 20 points in typical relatively hard minutes. He's always been a versatile, valuable player - the type you win with, that puts teams over the top. What we're seeing now is more of the same we've seen for years. He's playing with some complementary linemates - he and Dorsett are ;the other twins' imo - enjoying some mismatches against a lower quality of competition than he's used to facing - and he's taking full advantage of it. Couldn't have happened to a more deserving guy. He and Edler really deserved to get some of the CDC monkeys off their backs.

Absolutely. And let's not forget that before the Torts experiment, Hansen was improving steadily. He was looking like he'd develop into a 15-20g scorer. Along with his blazing speed and defensive IQ, I'd say he's a pretty good bottom 6 player on any team.

Anyone seen Slegr lurking about?

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