Investing in the stock market - Discussion

[Warhippy]

Stock watch.  PWM in Canada.

Singled out as one of the potential mining/drilling teams in Canada for rare earth metals.  Case lake finds and another site in the nickle belt rich in cobalt etc.

[Boudrias]

On 10/21/2022 at 3:43 PM, Boudrias said:

My GSY is treading water but AVGO had a decent jump this week. I only took a 1% allocation in AVGO and will buy on weakness. Chips are 75% of sales. They are moving into solutions. We'll see whether GSY can keep growing their revenue and earnings. Their earnings growth next year is tagged at + 26%. 

AVGO hit $513 this morning. Hit hurts because I should have bought more. Such a volatile market I thought I could ladder in but it move higher to fast. GSY is up 16% but it is a bit of an outlier for me. I am holding on news. 

[Pears]

On 11/14/2022 at 9:53 AM, Warhippy said:

Stock watch.  PWM in Canada.

Singled out as one of the potential mining/drilling teams in Canada for rare earth metals.  Case lake finds and another site in the nickle belt rich in cobalt etc.

Yeah, I think this and companies like FUSE are the ones to go for. FUSE is waiting for their drilling results but it is expected to make tons of money. 

[Warhippy]

3 hours ago, Pears said:

Yeah, I think this and companies like FUSE are the ones to go for. FUSE is waiting for their drilling results but it is expected to make tons of money. 

Any current company in canada that has legal claims staked regarding potash/fertilizer or cobalt and rare earth metals is essentially money in the bank.  The Pentagon didn't outright say they are not going to invest in things directly, but the US government almost outright said they were ready to pour money in to canada's nickle belt and resource sector to ensure Chinese companies did not get them first.  That they'd rather sit on unstaked claims than allow China any more outright ownership or influence in those markets for "strategic control and national security"

 

This is almost identical to the strategy and mindset put in to Canadian oil in the 70's and 80s after the OPEC and Iran issues.

[Boudrias]

Amazing how the SPAC's have disappeared. 

[van_ws]

Is it just me or is the plant based food sector uninvestible? TTCF, OTLY, VGFC, BYND, they are all garbage stocks. It seems like this is just a fad but you can't make money in this sector. I am just watching the TTCF train wreck and glad I got out at around $13. Lots of money to be made if you kept shorting these losers.

[I.Am.Ironman]

33 minutes ago, van_ws said:

Is it just me or is the plant based food sector uninvestible? TTCF, OTLY, VGFC, BYND, they are all garbage stocks. It seems like this is just a fad but you can't make money in this sector. I am just watching the TTCF train wreck and glad I got out at around $13. Lots of money to be made if you kept shorting these losers.

Yikes - just checked in on these names. Brutal. I was rooting for Very Good Food Company. They are a BC brand and their products are actually pretty tasty.

[Boudrias]

Fascinating interview of David Rubinstein (Carlyle Group) by Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) from October of this year. Wide ranging talk about geopolitics and investments.

Big concerns: 

- Cost of Ukraine war which is estimated at $8 trillion which includes post war costs

- Cost of climate change and the gross underestimation of the conversion timeline from hydrocarbons 

- Cost of government debt globally

 

Agreement that all world currencies are depreciating. Invest in 'meat & potato" businesses. Stay away from interest income investments. The returns won't be big enough. 

[ronthecivil]

On 11/22/2022 at 9:53 AM, van_ws said:

Is it just me or is the plant based food sector uninvestible? TTCF, OTLY, VGFC, BYND, they are all garbage stocks. It seems like this is just a fad but you can't make money in this sector. I am just watching the TTCF train wreck and glad I got out at around $13. Lots of money to be made if you kept shorting these losers.

Good company doesn't mean good stock. Things that are popular can have tons of money dumped into it by people that don't even check the business plans.

[c00kies]

On 11/18/2022 at 4:57 PM, Pears said:

Yeah, I think this and companies like FUSE are the ones to go for. FUSE is waiting for their drilling results but it is expected to make tons of money. 

I have invested in both FUSE and PWM, as their price points make it easy to commit to them and I agree they should both be positive locks. 

 

I'm not sure what their peaks are, but they don't have to skyrocket.

[Pears]

11 minutes ago, c00kies said:

I have invested in both FUSE and PWM, as their price points make it easy to commit to them and I agree they should both be positive locks. 

 

I'm not sure what their peaks are, but they don't have to skyrocket.

I agree, but with the total value cobalt is expected to get to by the end of the decade it’ll get pretty high I think. 

[nuckin_futz]

Christmas comes early for stock markets as Powell says he doesn't want to overtighten

• The fierce inflation-fighting Powell disappears

On August 26, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell put on the war paint in his fight against inflation at a Jackson Hole speech that was short and pointed.

 

"While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labour market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses," he said.

 

Contrast that with today's speech where he said, "we don't want to over tighten" and that slowing rate hikes at this point makes sense.

 

The results have been dramatic in markets. Sizable declines in equities have completely reversed with the S&P 500 now up 1.9% and the Nasdaq soaring by 3.1%.

 

The dollar was bounced around by month-end flows today, including a strong bid into the London fix. That's now completely reversed in the other direction, with the dollar down by 1.5% against the Australian dollar and solid declines elsewhere as well.

 

Fed fund futures now price in an 89% chance of 50 bps at the December meeting. Notably, he left himself some wiggle room if economic data comes in hot, saying that the time to slow hikes may come as soon as December.

 

The terminal Fed top now sits at 4.95% from as high as 5.05% earlier today.

[HI5]

Hope he surprises with a 100bps hike for a grinch rally. 

[Boudrias]

Low cost money is like drugs to the market. Low cost money has affected all aspects of our society. Distorted all valuation metrics. Politicians have taken very irresponsible spending to buy votes. The results are inflation and potential financial ruin for many people. 

[Elias Pettersson]

I think it's time to sell everything...

 

 

[Elias Pettersson]

Credit Suisse Chairman blames social media for $88 billion in losses...   

 

 

[Elias Pettersson]

The US Government blames its own people for the rise in inflation...

 

 

[I.Am.Ironman]

I watched some of the Tesla Semi event yesterday - pretty cool. They did a real world 500 mile drive with a 80 000lb pay load from Freemont to San Diego on a single charge (97%-4%). All I could think is that it must be a massive battery. Another notable difference from regular diesel trucks is that the semi, while it does lose more charge on an incline, gains charge through regenerative braking on declines so the brakes actually don't heat up as they go down a hill. A stat that blew me away though... Semi trucks are 1% of total vehicle volume in the USA but contribute to 20% of co2 emissions and 30% of particulate matter emissions.

[I.Am.Ironman]

It seems to just be a waiting game until we get the next unemployment report and CPI. IF we manage to avoid recession/increasing unemployment and the CPI inflation data continues to decline, I can see the bottom being in. However, the median recessionary bear market would have the S&P500 dropping down to around the 3000 level (peak to trough). If unemployment starts to increase then the likelihood of a recession increases which in turn increases likelihood of further down side. I believe both data sets are released next week.

[Boudrias]

I have real concerns how the economy overcomes the debt issue and demographics. Politicians as a rule don't have much economic sense and are the author of much of the inflation we are in now. They throw money out to try and drive growth up but with limited long term success. Most GDP growth rates had to hit 3.5% to make their old budgets work. Pensions are even worse than that is some cases. They need the growth to increase revenue into their estimations or they are undefendable.