Investing in the stock market - Discussion

[I.Am.Ironman]

Dow just broke the 20 000 mark again

[stawns]

28 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

So what are you reading about these malaria drugs working as well as is being written? Cure rate in 5 days. Sorry I cannot link you to the articles. China, Japan and Australia all positive.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins

 

Trial stage, so it's going to be awhile.  The Gates foundation is working on anti-virals, but these, as the other, only treat the symptoms.  Not even in testing phase from what I can see.

 

https://www.gatesfoundation.org/TheOptimist/Articles/coronavirus-mark-suzman-therapeutics

[NucksPatsFan]

@stawns Go have a beer of a glass of vino

 

The world isn't ending. China is already on the downswing less than 3 months into this. Starbucks and Apple have re-opened all their stores in China, the ports are open in China.

 

Don't look at the outlier (Italy, that waited for several hundred deaths before deciding to act). 

 

Far too much technology and science in these days for this to last much past the summer. Not saying COVID will be eradicated by the end of the summer, but much of life should be resuming as most people will have gotten it and fought it off and more and more drugs are available to combat it if someone does get it moving forward. 

 

 

However, if you still think you'll be social distancing 18 months from now, I've got a great collection of spam canned meat to sell ya!

[stawns]

1 minute ago, NucksPatsFan said:

@stawns Go have a beer of a glass of vino

 

The world isn't ending. China is already on the downswing less than 3 months into this. Starbucks and Apple have re-opened all their stores in China, the ports are open in China.

 

Don't look at the outlier (Italy, that waited for several hundred deaths before deciding to act). 

 

Far too much technology and science in these days for this to last much past the summer. Not saying COVID will be eradicated by the end of the summer, but much of life should be resuming as most people will have gotten it and fought it off and more and more drugs are available to combat it if someone does get it moving forward. 

 

 

However, if you still think you'll be social distancing 18 months from now, I've got a great collection of spam canned meat to sell ya!

read the article I posted.  Their projection is that isolation will knock it down to nothing, people will re-emerge and within a cpl weeks its back and then it's back to isolation until it's back down.....rinse and repeat until a vaccine is found.

 

Not like these guys are quacks, these are the global leaders in infectious disaease and pandemic modelling.  Believe me, I'll never be more happy to be wrong........I'm still planning based on the opinions and models of people who do it for governmemts, WHO etc etc.

[stawns]

4 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said:

@stawns Go have a beer of a glass of vino

 

The world isn't ending. China is already on the downswing less than 3 months into this. Starbucks and Apple have re-opened all their stores in China, the ports are open in China.

 

Don't look at the outlier (Italy, that waited for several hundred deaths before deciding to act). 

 

Far too much technology and science in these days for this to last much past the summer. Not saying COVID will be eradicated by the end of the summer, but much of life should be resuming as most people will have gotten it and fought it off and more and more drugs are available to combat it if someone does get it moving forward. 

 

 

However, if you still think you'll be social distancing 18 months from now, I've got a great collection of spam canned meat to sell ya!

that would be awesome, can you provide a scientific source for that info? Definitley put my mind at ease.

[NucksPatsFan]

12 minutes ago, stawns said:

that would be awesome, can you provide a scientific source for that info? Definitley put my mind at ease.

I'm not gonna do your homework for you, I'm sure you know how to use the internet.

 

You can read the study on the combination of chloroquine and azithromycin turning positive covid patients to negative testers.

 

You can educate yourself on how herd immunity works after majority (70%) of a population gets a virus and their immune system has built antibodies to it.

 

You can research yourself the plasma compounds that Iranian scientists found that contained antibodies to Covid and how they can be replicated. 

 

Chinese and other Asian labs don't have the same restrictions as North America for producing vaccines for mass use. Some are reportedly as near as 80 days away. 

 

 

[nuckin_futz]

CME says Ronin Capital unable to meet capital requirements

Fri 20 Mar 2020 19:03:50 GMT

 

International firm blows up

CNBC says Ronin Capital, a prop firm headquartered in Chicago with offices in New York, London, and Hong Kong, is offside with the CME.

 

They say the losses related to VIX positions. Their website says this:

 

Ronin Capital is a global, multi-strategy proprietary trading firm.  We focus on providing our traders a level of independence they desire, while inviting them to play a collaborative role in the creation and growth of profitable trading strategies.

Shame. Looks like they had a nice office.

 

 

It was founded in 2001. I can't find anything that advertises how much it had under management but judging by those offices, it was a decent amount.

 

The biggest irony: in its "About Us" section, the firm writes that "much of Ronin’s success derives from our superior risk management experience. Our unique approach combines sophisticated quantitative market analysis with years of proven trading expertise, across multiple products."

 

It's out that Ronin's failure will in turn derive from its catastrophic risk management experience.

 

*********************

 

Finally starting to hear about some of the inevitable blow ups. TVIX went from under $40 to 1000. Get on the wrong side of that and you'll blow up real good.

 

 

Edited March 20, 2020 by nuckin_futz

[Tortorella's Rant]

So..

How low does it go and when does the bleeding stop? 10,000 point Dow? Portfolio will be worth about five bucks at that point.  We're 18 1/2 right now and dropping daily.

[stawns]

2 hours ago, NucksPatsFan said:

I'm not gonna do your homework for you, I'm sure you know how to use the internet.

 

You can read the study on the combination of chloroquine and azithromycin turning positive covid patients to negative testers.

 

You can educate yourself on how herd immunity works after majority (70%) of a population gets a virus and their immune system has built antibodies to it.

 

You can research yourself the plasma compounds that Iranian scientists found that contained antibodies to Covid and how they can be replicated. 

 

Chinese and other Asian labs don't have the same restrictions as North America for producing vaccines for mass use. Some are reportedly as near as 80 days away. 

 

 

Said every person who had no valid evidence to back up their "opinion".

 

If you're going to counter an argument that is actually backed up by science and experts in the field, then you should probably do the same.

 

I'll take the opinions and projections of people relied on by the WHO and world governments over "I feel like it's going to ok" ramblings.

 

I hope I'm wrong

[NucksPatsFan]

7 minutes ago, stawns said:

Said every person who had no valid evidence to back up their "opinion".

 

If you're going to counter an argument that is actually backed up by science and experts in the field, then you should probably do the same.

 

I'll take the opinions and projections of people relied on by the WHO and world governments over "I feel like it's going to ok" ramblings.

 

I hope I'm wrong

There's tons of valid evidence behind what I said from some of the world's leading research facilities in infectious diseases. I'm not gonna google and copy and paste the links for you. I'm sure your hands work. 

[I.Am.Ironman]

55 minutes ago, Tortorella's Rant said:

So..

How low does it go and when does the bleeding stop? 10,000 point Dow? Portfolio will be worth about five bucks at that point.  We're 18 1/2 right now and dropping daily.

Trying to get this thread back on topic..... I think 10 000 would be extreme. 20 000 was a big barrier and we have broken twice in a week. I think 15 000 is more likely than 10. China is starting up again which I think will provide some hope into the markets once that starts happening here in 6 weeks or so (if the trend holds). However, IF this blows up in the USA to Italy levels, on a relative scale, all bets are off. Their population is the unhealthiest on the planet so the potential for $#!T to it the fan there is arguably higher than else where in the world.

[Tortorella's Rant]

9 hours ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

Trying to get this thread back on topic..... I think 10 000 would be extreme. 20 000 was a big barrier and we have broken twice in a week. I think 15 000 is more likely than 10. China is starting up again which I think will provide some hope into the markets once that starts happening here in 6 weeks or so (if the trend holds). However, IF this blows up in the USA to Italy levels, on a relative scale, all bets are off. Their population is the unhealthiest on the planet so the potential for $#!T to it the fan there is arguably higher than else where in the world.

So what's that entail for retired people or those looking to retire - get the &^@# back to work? My mother keeps mentioning her portfolio is down $26,000 and I'm almost like, be thankful that's all it's down. Of course I tell her to stop looking and that it'll ultimately get better but I don't have a clue how long before the bleeding stops - never mind any sort of recovery (years, likely)

[I.Am.Ironman]

9 hours ago, Tortorella's Rant said:

So what's that entail for retired people or those looking to retire - get the &^@# back to work? My mother keeps mentioning her portfolio is down $26,000 and I'm almost like, be thankful that's all it's down. Of course I tell her to stop looking and that it'll ultimately get better but I don't have a clue how long before the bleeding stops - never mind any sort of recovery (years, likely)

The retired or (formally) soon to be retired are the ones that will be hit hardest by this.

[HI5]

25 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

The retired or (formally) soon to be retired are the ones that will be hit hardest by this.

Yep, hopefully theirs some sort of extra support for them. 
 

My parents are close to retirement, both are required to work through the crisis so they’re not as worried. 
 

Any money I continue to make while I’m currently working and investing will go towards their retirement if necessary. 

[TGokou]

If I had to take a guess I think that markets have not taken into account a more protracted slowdown than previously anticipated. While I am cautiously optimistic that Canada will be able to get through this relatively unscathed I can't say the same for the states down south. They will be hit disproportionately hard as they did not take this as seriously as Canada, whereas I feel our government has acted quickly to slow down the infection. I am almost certain of a 2nd phase infection after the initial numbers go down. Most likely occuring in the fall. In the meantime, we will have things reopen and markets will probably have a decent recovery followed by more lockdowns later in the year. While a lot of small businesses can probably get through this first phase I think that second lockdown will be the dagger that shuts them down. Anyways, its' really difficult to predict what will happen with the markets. I'm anticipating a 40-45% initial drop from the peak during this initial phase but after that all bets are off. We have never seen anything like this in financial markets and I am not anticipating a V-shape recovery. Business sentiment has been shot and they won't be rehiring at full staffing levels even after things reopen. Personally I am trying to only hold the best assets that will always be required regardless of a downturn or a slowdown. Things like telecoms, restaurants (fast food), utilities are safe bets and maybe even industrial warehouse reits are safe bets. I would stay away from airlines, hotels, cruises, oil sector and possibly even banks even though they have dropped the most.

[nuckin_futz]

The more I read, the clearer the picture is becoming. Now that we are finally seeing reporting about highly leveraged firms blowing up, the landscape is becoming clearer.

 

Something very strange began happening as far back as last September. The New York Fed began conducting very large repo operations on an ongoing basis. This information was widely available at the time. A repo operation is a short term loan (usually overnight) where an entity pledges collateral (usually treasuries or fixed income instruments, no crap assets) to the Fed in exchange for a short term loan. Then buys back it's collateral at a slightly higher rate.

 

Long story short. The Fed began bailing out funds who all piled into similar highly leveraged trades where they were essentially picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. In the end, the steamroller won. The following explains it pretty well ...........

 

In a nutshell, the article explained why and how the return of the Fed's repo ops was nothing more than the Fed preemptively bailing out all those hedge funds that would have imploded had basis trades gone haywire. Below is a key excerpt from that post:

One increasingly popular hedge fund strategy involves buying US Treasuries while selling equivalent derivatives contracts, such as interest rate futures, and pocketing the arb, or difference in price between the two. While on its own this trade is not very profitable, given the close relationship in price between the two sides of the trade. But as LTCM knows too well, that's what leverage is for. Lots and lots and lots of leverage.

 

LTCM being Long Term Capital Management which was a quant fund that spectacularly blew up and needed a major bailout in 1998. Basically this time around there were many LTCM's.

 

So basically the market was going to blow up to some extent. The extent being to what degree the Fed could contain the damage. Then along came the virus and completely blew apart everyone's containment plans. That's why this market meltdown has been quicker and more unrelenting than even 1929. It's very strange to have had no bounces lasting longer than 1 day. That alone indicates how deep the problem is.

 

One of my favorite axioms regarding Wall St is "there's never just one cockroach". We are finally starting to see the cockroaches. There will be more.

 

Where does that leave the market? The market likes visibility. There is currently little visibility. At a minimum S&P 2100 looks like a given. Fridays close was 2305. The double top from 2000 and 2008 at 1550 looks like a better entry point. Should it get there that would be a 55% drop from the high.

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by nuckin_futz

[Warhippy]

8 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

The more I read, the clearer the picture is becoming. Now that we are finally seeing reporting about highly leveraged firms blowing up, the landscape is becoming clearer.

 

Something very strange began happening as far back as last September. The New York Fed began conducting very large repo operations on an ongoing basis. This information was widely available at the time. A repo operation is a short term loan (usually overnight) where an entity pledges collateral (usually treasuries or fixed income instruments, no crap assets) to the Fed in exchange for a short term loan. Then buys back it's collateral at a slightly higher rate.

 

Long story short. The Fed began bailing out funds who all piled into similar highly leveraged trades where they were essentially picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. In the end, the steamroller won. The following explains it pretty well ...........

 

In a nutshell, the article explained why and how the return of the Fed's repo ops was nothing more than the Fed preemptively bailing out all those hedge funds that would have imploded had basis trades gone haywire. Below is a key excerpt from that post:

One increasingly popular hedge fund strategy involves buying US Treasuries while selling equivalent derivatives contracts, such as interest rate futures, and pocketing the arb, or difference in price between the two. While on its own this trade is not very profitable, given the close relationship in price between the two sides of the trade. But as LTCM knows too well, that's what leverage is for. Lots and lots and lots of leverage.

 

LTCM being Long Term Capital Management which was a quant fund that spectacularly blew up and needed a major bailout in 1998. Basically this time around there were many LTCM's.

 

So basically the market was going to blow up to some extent. The extent being to what degree the Fed could contain the damage. Then along came the virus and completely blew apart everyone's containment plans. That's why this market meltdown has been quicker and more unrelenting than even 1929. It's very strange to have had no bounces lasting longer than 1 day. That alone indicates how deep the problem is.

 

One of my favorite axioms regarding Wall St is "there's never just one cockroach". We are finally starting to see the cockroaches. There will be more.

 

Where does that leave the market? The market likes visibility. There is currently little visibility. At a minimum S&P 2100 looks like a given. Fridays close was 2305. The double top from 2000 and 2008 at 1550 looks like a better entry point. Should it get there that would be a 55% drop from the high.

 

So even more fun to follow.

 

Explains why the us is now opening up a literal trillion dollars a day in lines to banks and corps

[Boudrias]

The virus is one issue. How bad and for how long? What the virus might force is a debt assessment for the USA and Canada and the world. If confidence is lost the cost of government borrowing will increase, if they can find lenders, and inflation returns with a vengeance. 

[Guest]

Question from a financially-uneducated:  Is there a way to buy index funds, and which ones are out there besides the Dow-Jones?  TSX?  Do you do it through your bank or through something like Quest Trade?  
 

[nuckin_futz]

28 minutes ago, VancouverHabitant said:

Question from a financially-uneducated:  Is there a way to buy index funds, and which ones are out there besides the Dow-Jones?  TSX?  Do you do it through your bank or through something like Quest Trade?  
 

Sounds like what would be best suited for you are ETF'S (exchange traded funds). These are instruments which are essentially funds but trade like stocks.

 

Symbol SPY = S&P 500, gives you a small piece of all 500 companies. Pays a dividend

Symbol DJIA = Dow Jones, gives you  a piece of all 30 companies in that index, pays a dividend

Symbol QQQ = Nasdaq index, pays a dividend

 

There are ETF's for just about everything. Gold, silver, home builder stocks, healthcare stocks, specific countries have ETF's focusing on them etc.

 

https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/insights/etf-education-overview.htm