Trade Deadline Calculations

[JamesB]

Over the next four weeks the Canucks will be facing questions about what to do at the trade deadline. And of course there has been a lot of talk on CDC about trade deadline strategy all season. But I have not seen a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of selling or buying at the deadline, so I thought I would do that here, and then comment on the implications for the Canucks.

1, Typical Deadline Trades.

There is a lot of variety, but a "typical" deadline trade is a decent veteran second line forward (like Vrbata) for a second round pick (usually a low second round pick).

2. Salary Implications.

The salary implications are small. Vrby is getting 5 million. The trade would come at (roughly) the 75% mark of the season, so the acquiring team would owe only about $1.25 million and could drop another player, saving some there. For the Canucks it is the same situation in reverse, so salary is not much of an issue. If it is an issue the selling team can always retain salary if needed.

3. Cap implications.

Normally there no cap implications. Almost all teams have some accumulated cap space (which is cumulative) by the deadline and the cap hit owed to the player is also pro-rated. So it is rare for a deadline trade to cause any cap problems.

4. Financial Effects of Making or Missing the Playoffs

If acquiring a player makes the difference between making and missing the playoffs (or if selling a player has the opposite effect) the financial implications are huge. Playoff games are pure gravy for the owners as they generate a lot of revenue (tickets sales and other revenue) and do not require the owners to pay more salary. (Players are compensated from a league playoff bonus pool.) I estimate that benefit as at least $3 million per home game. A team that makes the playoffs is guaranteed at least 2 home games and the average is between 5 and 6. So the average or expected financial gain to the owner is about  $16 million for playoff revenue. In addition, a contending team will generate more revenue in the final quarter of the season as well. Overall, the expected gain to being a playoff team rather than a bottom feeder is probably about $20 million.  That is the difference between a financially successful season and a bad season for many teams.

Right now, most of the playoff prediction websites have the Canucks at about 25% to make the playoffs. If they are still 25% at the deadline, then the expected value of selling would be about (0.25)(20) =   $5 million in current lost revenue, but of course you expect more revenue in the future from having a better team in the future.

5. Benefits of selling.

A low second round pick (or equivalent prospect) has only about a 30% chance of becoming a useful NHL regular. (See, for example, http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/. But I think Benning's odds are better than that given his track record.

If a second-rounder makes the NHL, the path usually includes 2 years in junior (or the equivalent) and 1 to 3 years in the AHL. So the benefit does not usually materialize for 4 or 5 years, but then the team has that player for a number of years. And they give up the rental player only for a few weeks. First round picks are much better. Gaunce is typical low first round pick, but you might get lucky and get someone like McCann.

6. Sell a little or a lot? If you sell, it pays to go all the way. There is no cost to finishing 27th rather than, say, 19th in the league standings and you get higher draft pick for your own picks in every round. This can, of course, be a huge benefit in the first round.

Bottom Line:

If the decision had to be made today, with only a 25% chance of making the playoffs, I think the situation is an obvious sell situation. Vrby and Hammer could probably be traded for second round picks. Prust, Higgins, and Weber are probably worth nothing, though. Bartkowski is worth at most a low pick (5th round?). Hansen, if he would waive, is worth a first round pick, but he has two years left on good contract so losing him would be costly in the short run. (But, after playing with the Sedins, his value is probably higher than it should be, especially as there will be a lot of competition for wing spots on the Canucks next year.)

If the Canucks rise to 50-50 for the playoffs when the deadline rolls around, I would stand pat. After all, if you make the playoffs there is so much parity that you always have some chance at a Cup and you don't want to throw away those chances.

One more comment. It seems to me that the Canucks could actually improve the team right now by trading Vrbata. With Henrik coming back there will be a logjam at center. It could make sense to shift either Vey or Sutter to RW and either one might be as good as or better than Vrby on the second line.

 

I would appreciate any comments.

 

 

 

[RUPERTKBD]

Honestly, I don't care about whether we come out ahead in the salary game. I'd just like to get some solid futures in exchange some of our current veterans who have value.

[JamesB]

1 minute ago, RUPERTKBD said:

Honestly, I don't care about whether we come out ahead in the salary game. I'd just like to get some solid futures in exchange some of our current veterans who have value.

We don't care about the salary game (or finances more broadly) but the owner does, and he has more influence on decisions than we do. My objective is to get some understanding of those decisions.

[RUPERTKBD]

Just now, JamesB said:

We don't care about the salary game (or finances more broadly) but the owner does, and he has more influence on decisions than we do. My objective is to get some understanding of those decisions.

Agreed. My point was more along the lines of "Lets let Aqua and JB worry about the Cap. I'm just voicing opinion on what I'd like to see done"...

[Fateless]

I don't really care if we're in the playoff picture or not come trade deadline day - Vrbata needs to be traded no matter what. Realistically his value is anywhere between a 1st and 3rd round pick depending on the market come TDL Day and how much competition there is for a player who can put the puck in the net. 

I'd like to see Hammer get traded as well (same situtation, could garner anything between a 1st and a 3rd rounder), but would be okay with keeping him on for a sub-3 million contract if he agrees to a lesser role in a leadership position. 

Other than that, sell off any fringe players that won't have a spot on the team next year (Weber, Prust, Bartkowski) for whatever we can get. 

[Jiggs50]

Another one. 

[TOMapleLaughs]

It's a fine balance to make sure the fans feel that the team is 'building a winning environment' while at the same time a lot of the players appear to be disengaged.  But at the same time, there's nothing to do about it but continue to execute the years-long process of building a team.  Benning is in the midst of this process.

For this deadline there should be some expectations if Benning decides to wow us with moves.

- The team has one more win than Columbus.  But they could still make the playoffs.  Because of this, I'm expecting a combination of 'sell' moves and 'buy' moves.  This will be an attempt appease both branches of thoughts that Canucks fans currently have.  I would consider not using acquired 1sts or 2nds on drafted prospects to be a failure, because Benning is this advertised 'drafting GM'.  However, if one or two of these picks are parlayed into prospects who are further along, this would not come as a shock.  This would be to maintain the fine balance, to keep both branches of fan thought happy.  The reality is that the Canucks need more NHL-ready prospects now, due to previous draft failures.  (But what of the current Comets who are due to graduate?)

- While I assume we'd get a 2nd for him and we should be happy anyway, I would consider anything less than a 1st for Vrbata to be a failure.  He scored 63 pts last season and taking him off the Sedin line makes no sense unless you're deliberately reducing his trade value.

- Hamhuis is injured.  Tough to say if he's tradeable at this point.  He's one of the disengaged vets.  If we're able to retain him, we should probably do it, and perform other moves to get him and others engaged again.  If he wants to go, then we need to move him at the deadline.  Moving his rights at the draft, which could very well happen, is relatively pointless.

- If any team in the NHL is interested in Prust, he honestly should be gone already.

- If the team does nothing at deadline, I would consider that to be a disaster.

These thoughts are irrelevant, as it's ultimately up to Linden/Benning.  Vital times are approaching when it comes to the rebuild.  May the force be with them.

[Mackcanuck]

There could be at least 10 teams selling at the deadline, we may have an advantage in that we have many players on expiring contracts,

Hammer and Vrbata will have some interest,maybe Bart, Weber or Cracknell on the cheap,

I don't think Prust will make it thru the All Star break

[SvenBae]

Real nice analysis, good job!

[Down by the River]

Vrbata needs to be moved, Hamhuis should be moved, Weber, Burrows, and Prust can't be moved. That leaves two realistic pieces that the Canucks can move. 

Trading within conference is less likely, so the most plausible teams are out East.

MTL: likely won't know if they will be buyers for a couple more weeks

NYI: Could use another Dman to shore up their top 6, unless they want to rely on a younger dman to help carry them through the playoffs

WASH: Another team that could use a dman, their top 6 is already electric, don't see them needing Vrbata

FLA: Definitely a lack of natural RW, so Vrbata an option. 

NYR: Already a plethora of forwards and dmen, don't seem them looking for a major piece.

BOS: Their d has been questioned all year, but would Hammer want to waive?

TB: No glaring holes in their top 6 fwds and top 4 D

PIT: God awful defence that needs greater speed. Can Hammer address that? Not likely, but at least his positioning is solid. 

DET: With Franzen and the IR and Jurco inexperienced, Vrby could be a good fit. I would think Hammer would be an upgrade over Quincey and Ericcson. 

So, that leaves about 5-6 potential trading partners: FLA, DET, PIT, NYI, BOS, and MTL. Of these, I'd say FLA, DET, PIT, and MTL are most realistic.

BOS: They did acquire an additional first round pick from SJ, so may be willing to send to Canucks for Hammer+. Boston does not have their second round pick (traded to TBL for Connolly), but they do have one from NYI.

MTL: The Habs have an extra second from Minny, so they may be more willing to give up a 2nd rounder, but can Vrbata fetch more than that?

NYI: No second roudner, sent to Boston. 

PIT: No second rounder, sent to Leafs.

 

[I.Am.Ironman]

I would think that Nashville could be a good landing spot for Vrbata as well. He would shore up their 2nd line quite nicely. To a lesser extent Hamhuis could even slot in there for defensive depth for a playoff run. The Canucks would have to retain max on each player but I think that is another option(s).

[HC20.0]

I think Vrbata's gonna be traded. I also think we'll be getting roster players back, so we don't have to rush the young guns. Prust is as good as gone. Hamhuis...I can see him staying. 

[SvenBae]

17 minutes ago, Down by the River said:

Vrbata needs to be moved, Hamhuis should be moved, Weber, Burrows, and Prust can't be moved. That leaves two realistic pieces that the Canucks can move. 

Trading within conference is less likely, so the most plausible teams are out East.

MTL: likely won't know if they will be buyers for a couple more weeks

NYI: Could use another Dman to shore up their top 6, unless they want to rely on a younger dman to help carry them through the playoffs

WASH: Another team that could use a dman, their top 6 is already electric, don't see them needing Vrbata

FLA: Definitely a lack of natural RW, so Vrbata an option. 

NYR: Already a plethora of forwards and dmen, don't seem them looking for a major piece.

BOS: Their d has been questioned all year, but would Hammer want to waive?

TB: No glaring holes in their top 6 fwds and top 4 D

PIT: God awful defence that needs greater speed. Can Hammer address that? Not likely, but at least his positioning is solid. 

DET: With Franzen and the IR and Jurco inexperienced, Vrby could be a good fit. I would think Hammer would be an upgrade over Quincey and Ericcson. 

So, that leaves about 5-6 potential trading partners: FLA, DET, PIT, NYI, BOS, and MTL. Of these, I'd say FLA, DET, PIT, and MTL are most realistic.

BOS: They did acquire an additional first round pick from SJ, so may be willing to send to Canucks for Hammer+. Boston does not have their second round pick (traded to TBL for Connolly), but they do have one from NYI.

MTL: The Habs have an extra second from Minny, so they may be more willing to give up a 2nd rounder, but can Vrbata fetch more than that?

NYI: No second roudner, sent to Boston. 

PIT: No second rounder, sent to Leafs.

 

Wouldn't rule out conference opponents, Flames traded away yours truly at the deadline last year and they were in the playoff race.

Less likely? Sure, but that's still a case to case evaluation like you were presenting for potential Eastern conference trade partners.

[Down by the River]

1 minute ago, SvenBae said:

Wouldn't rule out conference opponents, Flames traded away yours truly at the deadline last year and they were in the playoff race.

Less likely? Sure, but that's still a case to case evaluation like you were presenting for potential Eastern conference trade partners.

Definitely agree, just too lazy to present the argument for teams from the West. Stars could use another top 4 dman. 

[SvenBae]

Just now, Down by the River said:

Definitely agree, just too lazy to present the argument for teams from the West. Stars could use another top 4 dman. 

Understandable.

I like FLA as a destination the most, we seem to have a good relationship with them and they could be looking for rentals for a deeper playoff run. That organization could certainly use a deep playoff run.

[JamesB]

19 minutes ago, SvenBae said:

Wouldn't rule out conference opponents, Flames traded away yours truly at the deadline last year and they were in the playoff race.

Less likely? Sure, but that's still a case to case evaluation like you were presenting for potential Eastern conference trade partners.

So, are you happy with the trade so far?

[SvenBae]

Just now, JamesB said:

So, are you happy with the trade so far?

At this point, yes, especially if we are to use your draft pick source to tease apart the value of the 2nd we gave up.

[JamesB]

39 minutes ago, Down by the River said:

Vrbata needs to be moved, Hamhuis should be moved, Weber, Burrows, and Prust can't be moved. That leaves two realistic pieces that the Canucks can move. 

Trading within conference is less likely, so the most plausible teams are out East.

MTL: likely won't know if they will be buyers for a couple more weeks

NYI: Could use another Dman to shore up their top 6, unless they want to rely on a younger dman to help carry them through the playoffs

WASH: Another team that could use a dman, their top 6 is already electric, don't see them needing Vrbata

FLA: Definitely a lack of natural RW, so Vrbata an option. 

NYR: Already a plethora of forwards and dmen, don't seem them looking for a major piece.

BOS: Their d has been questioned all year, but would Hammer want to waive?

TB: No glaring holes in their top 6 fwds and top 4 D

PIT: God awful defence that needs greater speed. Can Hammer address that? Not likely, but at least his positioning is solid. 

DET: With Franzen and the IR and Jurco inexperienced, Vrby could be a good fit. I would think Hammer would be an upgrade over Quincey and Ericcson. 

So, that leaves about 5-6 potential trading partners: FLA, DET, PIT, NYI, BOS, and MTL. Of these, I'd say FLA, DET, PIT, and MTL are most realistic.

BOS: They did acquire an additional first round pick from SJ, so may be willing to send to Canucks for Hammer+. Boston does not have their second round pick (traded to TBL for Connolly), but they do have one from NYI.

MTL: The Habs have an extra second from Minny, so they may be more willing to give up a 2nd rounder, but can Vrbata fetch more than that?

NYI: No second roudner, sent to Boston. 

PIT: No second rounder, sent to Leafs.

 

Solid analysis going beyond what I did in the OP. Thanks for going to the effort. I am rooting for MTL to win a few games and get in playoff position so they might trade for Vrby. Maybe they will take Vrby AND Prust. (Although still for second round pick. I don't see Prust adding anything in terms of trade value, but I think it would just be good to move him off the team and putting him on waivers and sending him to Utica if he clears is probably not a great idea.

[JamesB]

1 minute ago, SvenBae said:

At this point, yes, especially if we are to use your draft pick source to tease apart the value of the 2nd we gave up.

Yup, you are definitely worth more than the expected value of  a second round pick.

[Ghostsof1915]

1 hour ago, TOMapleLaughs said:

It's a fine balance to make sure the fans feel that the team is 'building a winning environment' while at the same time a lot of the players appear to be disengaged.  But at the same time, there's nothing to do about it but continue to execute the years-long process of building a team.  Benning is in the midst of this process.

For this deadline there should be some expectations if Benning decides to wow us with moves.

- The team has one more win than Columbus.  But they could still make the playoffs.  Because of this, I'm expecting a combination of 'sell' moves and 'buy' moves.  This will be an attempt appease both branches of thoughts that Canucks fans currently have.  I would consider not using acquired 1sts or 2nds on drafted prospects to be a failure, because Benning is this advertised 'drafting GM'.  However, if one or two of these picks are parlayed into prospects who are further along, this would not come as a shock.  This would be to maintain the fine balance, to keep both branches of fan thought happy.  The reality is that the Canucks need more NHL-ready prospects now, due to previous draft failures.  (But what of the current Comets who are due to graduate?)

- While I assume we'd get a 2nd for him and we should be happy anyway, I would consider anything less than a 1st for Vrbata to be a failure.  He scored 63 pts last season and taking him off the Sedin line makes no sense unless you're deliberately reducing his trade value.

- Hamhuis is injured.  Tough to say if he's tradeable at this point.  He's one of the disengaged vets.  If we're able to retain him, we should probably do it, and perform other moves to get him and others engaged again.  If he wants to go, then we need to move him at the deadline.  Moving his rights at the draft, which could very well happen, is relatively pointless.

- If any team in the NHL is interested in Prust, he honestly should be gone already.

- If the team does nothing at deadline, I would consider that to be a disaster.

These thoughts are irrelevant, as it's ultimately up to Linden/Benning.  Vital times are approaching when it comes to the rebuild.  May the force be with them.

You do know Benning does not work in a vacuum right? If no one is offering anything of value, you'd rather make a bad trade than no trades at all? Benning does not dictate the other 29 GM's.