elvis15 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Adding more of the profile on Bo: PROSPECT PROFILE: #1 BO HORVAT Well, here we are. After a month of counting down the Vancouver Canucks' top-20 prospects, we've finally arrived at our consensus choice for the top prospect in Vancouver's system. We've covered every type of player from towering European defenders to late developing scorers to history-making college kids to dynamic and exciting Western League scorers. The Canucks' pipeline of quality young talent is as full as it's been in years, and at the head of the class of the future is none other than Bo Horvat. ... So, yeah. No pressure, kid. ... From McKeen's Hockey Director of Scouting and Soo Greyhounds scout David Burstyn via McKeen's Hockey: As we'll see later, Boone Jenner is likely a very appropriate comparison for Horvat, both stylistically and statistically. From Sportsnet.ca: From Hockey's Future: From Corey Pronman, via Hockey Prospectus: Reading these reports, you quickly get a sense that Horvat is almost the exact opposite of fellow top prospect Hunter Shinkaruk. Horvat isn't an offensive dynamo and has never put up boxcars that scream "guaranteed NHLer" let alone "top-6 forward", but he plays an incredibly strong two-way game, and is highly regarded for his faceoff and shot blocking (or "fenwick-suppressing," if you will) abilities. He possesses a ton of physical strength, and uses this to win board battles and unleash a heavy shot. A couple of things I also noticed when I saw Horvat at prospects camp were that he's a very smooth puck handler - behind only the aforementioned Shinkaruk in puck skills among Canucks prospects by my eyes - and he carries the puck quite close to his body in traffic, making him incredibly difficult for a defender to pokecheck. He's not the fastest guy around, but his speed looks good enough to get him around the ice, which is all that you really need. He's also trimmed some weight from the nearly 220-lb frame he was reportedly carrying around last year in an effort to get quicker. Overall, as Corey Pronman noted, Horvat does a little bit of everything well. Horvat was likely among the CHL's premiere two-way forwards last season, and we know that his coach Dale Hunter loved to use him against other teams' top players. He was hard-matched against Anthony Mantha, Kerby Rychel, and Henrik Samuelsson in the Memorial Cup, and our QoC estimates show that he faced among the toughest competition in the OHL through all of last year. We also know that London was among the OHL's top possession teams last season, so between that, his role on the Knights, and his strong GoalsFor% (Josh Weissbock's Elo +/- has Horvat 88th in the OHL last season), we can infer that Horvat likely was a strong possession player too. Now that we've established what type of player Bo Horvat is, we have to look at what type of player Bo Horvat is likely to become. We've touched on this before, but admittedly not all that rigorously. The best way to project what a CHL player can become in the NHL is to build a number of close comparisons and analyze how these comparisons performed in their post-junior careers - chances are that the prospect in question will fall somewhere in this range, as we've previously theorized. ... Copper & Blue took a stab at adjusting scoring rate for era before, concluding that Horvat's closest draft year comparables were Travis Green, Bob Errey, David Latta, and Stefan Cherneski. This approach didn't really account for draft age besides a subjective measure however, so I'm not too fond of it. I have also tried to adjust draft year scoring for age in the past, and determined that Horvat most closely compared to Kyle Chipchura, Peter Holland, and Alex Burmistrov. This exercise is also problematic though, as it only looked at 1st round draft picks, and only players in their first draft eligible CHL season. Bo Horvat now has a draft+1 season under his belt, so it's only fair to compare him based on this information too. So, as a service to Bo Horvat, I've built an entirely new comparison model. Since some young players play in the NHL in their draft+1 seasons, this new model compares players on the basis of Age and Era Adjusted Combined Draft and Draft+1 Year NHL or Equivalent Points Per Game. But that's a pain in the ass to type and annoying to read, so we'll call it Adjusted Scoring (because AEACDD+1NHLoEPPG looks stupid). ... They're sorted by closeness to Horvat, but they're all within plus or minus 10% of his Adjusted Scoring, plus or minus two inches in height, and drafted within the first 100 picks of the NHL entry draft, so everyone on this list is, for all intents and purposes, essentially statistically identical. I wouldn't say that there's a lot of star power on this list, but Cory Stillman, Mike Peca, Mike Fisher, Chris Stewart, Brandon Saad, and Ryan O'Reilly were/are really, really good players. I think it's fair to say then that a player like this is Bo Horvat's ceiling - an extremely useful forward that's a valuable part of a deep group, best suited to playing support on a good team, just as Horvat has been doing in London for the past two seasons. Guys like Raffi Torres, Mikkel Boedker, Dan Cleary, Ethan Moreau, Jan Bulis(!), and Cal Clutterbuck are also useful depth forwards that most teams would like (/have liked) to have, but guys like Petr Taticek and Brandon Convery serve as a reminder that there's still plenty of time for things to go wrong with Horvat's development. Removing the young guys who haven't really had time to solidify NHL jobs for themselves, the average player in this group has played 295 NHL games, scored 58 goals and 73 assists, for 0.444 points per game, which equates to 36 points per 82 games, or high-end third line to low-end second line production. If you make the safe assumption that Horvat's pedigree pushes him towards the top end of this group though, there's an easy argument to be made that he's at least an average offensive 2nd line centre in the prime of his career with the plus-plus-defensive upside he's demonstrated in the OHL - a tough commodity to find on the open market. Since the time he was drafted, I've personally moved from "Bo Horvat is likely a 3rd line C" to "Bo Horvat is likely at least a 3rd line C," and the data seems to back this up. Horvat took significant strides in the past season to become a more complete two-way player - remember, defensive specialists are only one way players too! - and saw his offensive output grow in a way that guys like Brendan Gaunce and Nicklas Jensen have yet to realize. Even if Horvat goes back to London this season for another shot at the Memorial Cup and World Junior gold, and even if Hunter Shinkaruk and Jake Virtanen and Jared McCann have monster seasons next year and overtake him the next time our Prospect Profile series rolls around, Bo Horvat has solidified himself as a very, very good prospect. Here's to hoping his development goes perfectly. Remember: no pressure, kid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rollieo Del Fuego Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 (edited) For placing him as the number one prospect, they don't seem to like him all that much "likely at least a third line center" up from likely a third line center. Ah well, Stevie Y. never got much respect at fourth either. Edited September 11, 2014 by Rollieo Del Fuego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dasein Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 (edited) For placing him as the number prospect, they don't seem to like him all that much "likely at least a third line center" up from likely a third line center. Ah well, Stevie Y. never got much respect at first either. ... what are you talking about Yzerman got tonnes of respect from the start: Drafted 4th overall in 1983, 2nd in Calder Trophy voting, first ever 18-year-old to play an NHL All-star game, youngest captain in Red Wing's franchise history, and so on. The guy was a superstar from the start. He just gained more of it when he sacrificed his prolific scoring to play defense to win championships. As for Bo, he'll at least be a 3rd line center seems apt. The reason they aren't that high on him despite placing him #1 is because they are all very aware that we have a number of prospects (Virtanen, McCann, Shinkaruk) who have a higher potential than he does, and have a chance to prove it in the upcoming crucial year. Edited September 11, 2014 by Dasein 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rollieo Del Fuego Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 ... what are you talking about Yzerman got tonnes of respect from the start: Drafted 4th overall in 1983, 2nd in Calder Trophy voting, first ever 18-year-old to play an NHL All-star game, youngest captain in Red Wing's franchise history, and so on. The guy was a superstar from the start. He just gained more of it when he sacrificed his prolific scoring to play defense to win championships. As for Bo, he'll at least be a 3rd line center seems apt. The reason they aren't that high on him despite placing him #1 is because they are all very aware that we have a number of prospects (Virtanen, McCann, Shinkaruk) who have a higher potential than he does, and have a chance to prove it in the upcoming crucial year. Sure, ya, ya...alright ...but other than that what did he do?... oppsie mybad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dasein Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Sure, ya, ya...alright ...but other than that what did he do?... oppsie mybad What does that even mean... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrogZilla Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I have np with Horvat ending up as our 3rd line center for several years. That'd just mean others surpassed him & the team would be a contender. Nothing wrong with having a 3C who could be a 2C & a 4C who could be a 3C. Ideally Kesler would of been our 3rd line center the last few years too, we jut didn't have anyone better then him to play 2C. Shinkaruk McCann Kassian Virtanen Vey Jensen Fox Horvat Cassels Zalewski Gaunce LaBate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bure_Pavel Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 A lot of people say that horvat doesn't have that high of offensive upside but 16 goals in 21 games in the playoffs in your draft year is very impressive especially playing a pk role! Virtanen only scored I think 2 in 6 games, given it was only a second line role Im not sure horvat was first line either. Not taking anything away from virtanen, but he improved his assist numbers very nicely this year and took an even bigger defensive role against the leagues premier players. First line player is a possibility with his work ethic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Vintage Canuck- Posted September 11, 2014 Author Share Posted September 11, 2014 Bob McKenzie was on TSN 1040 Thursday afternoon. On his sense of Bo Horvat, whether or not he’ll make the Vancouver Canucks, and if he’d put money on it happening: “I wouldn’t put money on it. It’s one of those ones where it wouldn’t surprise me, but I think the Canucks are smart enough here and I think Jimmy Benning and Willie Desjardins will be smart enough here that if they’re going to do it they’re going to do it for the right reasons and not the wrong reasons. “The wrong reason is ‘Look everyone, one of our draft picks made it. One of our draft picks is in the lineup. Isn’t that great? We’re doing a great job here. Here comes the youth. Here comes the kids. This is tangible evidence that even though we preserved the veteran core of this team, with Sedins and Bieksa and Edler and everyone else, that we are bringing along young talent and here’s the tangible proof of that, so get off our back.’ That’s the bad reason to do it. “The good reason to do it is that he earns it. That he’s a better option than Linden Vey or Brad Richardson or Shawn Matthias or whoever you might have pencilled in behind Sedin in the centre ice spot. And let’s be honest, it’s wide open to that extent. It’s an area of weakness, I guess, but it’s an area they also think they have addressed and that Vey or Matthias or Richardson are going to be able to step up and fill the void created by Kesler.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 And let’s be honest, it’s wide open to that extent. It’s an area of weakness, I guess, but it’s an area they also think they have addressed and that Vey or Matthias or Richardson are going to be able to step up and fill the void created by Kesler.” Man, it seems like Bonino gets no respect from anyone. Yes, he's a downgrade from Kesler, but Kesler is one of the better second line centers in the league. That doesn't mean we're weak with Bonino there. With the addition of Vey and possibly Horvat, that would be four potential centers for our bottom 6. That strength is what will hopefully take pressure off the top 6 and create a balanced attack. I think that could actually be a strength this season, and would certainly give us more depth there then we've seen in a while. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Man, it seems like Bonino gets no respect from anyone. Yes, he's a downgrade from Kesler, but Kesler is one of the better second line centers in the league. That doesn't mean we're weak with Bonino there. With the addition of Vey and possibly Horvat, that would be four potential centers for our bottom 6. That strength is what will hopefully take pressure off the top 6 and create a balanced attack. I think that could actually be a strength this season, and would certainly give us more depth there then we've seen in a while. Agree. Also one of the reasons I think (if he's ready) Bo's got an even better chance of making the team. With no real clear cut favourites for the bottom three C's, I think management/coaching would love to have as many in the lineup as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I think Bob McKenzie forgot about Bonino because how can you mention RIchardson, Matthias and Vey but not mention Bonino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dasein Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Bob McKenzie was on TSN 1040 Thursday afternoon. On his sense of Bo Horvat, whether or not he’ll make the Vancouver Canucks, and if he’d put money on it happening: “The good reason to do it is that he earns it. That he’s a better option than Linden Vey or Brad Richardson or Shawn Matthias or whoever you might have pencilled in behind Sedin in the centre ice spot. And let’s be honest, it’s wide open to that extent. It’s an area of weakness, I guess, but it’s an area they also think they have addressed and that Vey or Matthias or Richardson are going to be able to step up and fill the void created by Kesler.” Man did he sleep through the return on Kesler's trade? Bonino, then it's Vey, Richardson or Matthias for 3C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rollieo Del Fuego Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 What does that even mean... LOL Just trying to make u LOL...oh learned one and jogger of rambling old memories of announcers calling Stevie small and not rugged enough. He sure showed them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 (edited) Man did he sleep through the return on Kesler's trade? Bonino, then it's Vey, Richardson or Matthias for 3C. Theoretically, Vey could steal 2C. 3C could be anybody's...Vey, Mathias, Richardson...even including an outside chance of Gaunce or Horvat. The bottom three C spots really are open for the taking. Edited September 11, 2014 by J.R. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rollieo Del Fuego Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 (edited) Sedins / Vrbata Burrows / Bonino / Kassian Higgins / Horvat / Richardson or Vey Mathias / Richarson or Vey / Dorsett or Hansen. That's 6 centers, could put Gaunce in for Dorsett and have 7 centers available every game. This is really what I want to see: Sedins / Vrbata This line will have a lot more room because of the below. Jensen/ Bonino / Kassian this line should destroy in the corners. Higgins / Horvat / Burrows this line should check the best lines. Mathias / Gaunce / Vey or Dorsett or Fox this line could check the 2nd line or run roughshod over the opposing 4th line! ALL lines should produce well! Edited September 12, 2014 by Rollieo Del Fuego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derp... Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Best case scenario Vey plays his way onto the second line with Bonino and Kassian/Higgins/Jensen Bones Vey Kass Higgi Matthias Burr Dorsett Richi Hansen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wshdrvvn Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 perhaps he left out bonino because he's the second best center on the roster and horvat isn't going to take his spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Man, it seems like Bonino gets no respect from anyone. Yes, he's a downgrade from Kesler, but Kesler is one of the better second line centers in the league. That doesn't mean we're weak with Bonino there. With the addition of Vey and possibly Horvat, that would be four potential centers for our bottom 6. That strength is what will hopefully take pressure off the top 6 and create a balanced attack. I think that could actually be a strength this season, and would certainly give us more depth there then we've seen in a while. Well said. It's not like Bonino was picked up from the Winnipeg Jets. He was the 2nd line center on the top team in the West, and was 3rd in team scoring. At the very least, he should be considered an average 2nd center, and far ahead of Matthias, Vey, or Richardson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFastOne21 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Well said. It's not like Bonino was picked up from the Winnipeg Jets. He was the 2nd line center on the top team in the West, and was 3rd in team scoring. At the very least, he should be considered an average 2nd center, and far ahead of Matthias, Vey, or Richardson. I think Horvat is our future Kesler and leader of the organization, albeit as a 2C or fringe 1C if he develops well. However, even if he makes the team this season I believe he is 3-4 years away from a top leadership role (Around when Sedin's retire) and 2 years from a top 6 role. Bonino is a great replacement for 2C because we are more balanced now than last season. Assuming our players have solid to good seasons rather than the catastrophe that was last season we are better off now. Vey, Matthias, Richardson and Horvat will fight for bottom 6 spots and I think Vey and/or Matthias will transition to the wing if Horvat makes the jump. Also, Bonino, Vey, Matthias and Horvat are all still relatively young or just entering their primes. I think good things will come of this group this season. I am stoked for this season and the future of the organization. The ship is back in the sea and headed in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugor Hill Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I have no problem with Matthias/Horvat/Vey on our 4th. Keep Dorsett. Waive Sestito. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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