What are superstar NHL players really worth?

[Warhippy]

They're worth whatever idiot GMs will overpay them for every July 1st or in every contract extension.

[riffraff]

Whaddya gonna do with 13schmil when you live in edmondump?

[JeremyCuddles]

6 hours ago, riffraff said:

Whaddya gonna do with 13schmil when you live in edmondump?

A lot you can do with it April-September in a better city. Depending on when you get bounced that is. Who knows maybe he'll invest it for life beyond hockey.  

[IBatch]

15 hours ago, S'all Good Man said:

they're worth whatever someone is willing to pay

Exactly.  When Stamkos was about to become a UFA there were reports he would go as high as 14 million per once on the open market.  McDavid likely won't peak for one or two more years and then keep that pace for who knows how long (superstars tend to do that), and already is on top with nobody likely to catch him unless your a TO diehard and think Mathews has the stuff.   Crosby close to thirty, if he was twenty his contract, same with Ovi for that matter, would be closer to 15 mil....

Look at Kopitars,Toews and Kanes contract, these guys are already well into or arguably even past their prime, I would much rather have McDavid and eight years of his, the paying over ten million for past production from the former guys.

 

If Stamkos went to the open market he would have got more than anyone before him, McDavids contract by the time he's half way done will be surpassed by work other superstars entering UFA for the first time, and by then end of it a half dozen guys will have passed him, just like guys passed at the time, OVI and Crosby's rich contracts.

 

His contract isn't going to ruin anything anyway, only five or so guys will ever be able to even try and use it during contract talks, because honestly who compares to him now or in the future? 

 

Just imagine what a team on the open market would pay for him...a lot more than 13 at 8.  

[IBatch]

16 hours ago, Matt_T83 said:

With the Oilers apparently set to pay McDavid around $13 million per year... I'm starting to wonder what NHL players are really worth at that level. You can't just keep having a linear increase in salary. At some point there have to be diminishing returns. Reports are that Draisaitl is going to get ~7-8M (in that range), or at least that's what he's 'worth'. So then is McDavid really worth 5-6M more per year? No way. You shouldn't pay 60-70% more money for 25% more point production.
 

The reality is that hockey is totally different than other sports. You look at basketball and players can play almost the whole game in the playoffs. McDavid can't be on the ice for more then 35-40% of the game, tops. Sure, if he was a basketball player he'd be worth $30 million. But in the NHL with limited playing time, he can't be worth more than $11-12. 

 

And what are the comparables? To me, Chicago really screwed up with Toews/Kane. Kane is still producing, but there's no way those guys are worth 10.5M. The better comparables are Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Steven Stamkos. With those comparables, I'd say McDavid is worth around $10-11M tops. And considering they're giving him a huge raise during his RFA period, he should take a pay cut. I'd suggest ~8M average for 4 years and then $11M average for the next 4 years for his contract. That's an AAV of $9.5M, right around what he's worth right now. 

 

If the Oilers sign McDavid for $13M it's going to doom them long term, and cause huge salary disputes between players and owners. I would go so far as to say this contract would be bad for the NHL in general. Revenues aren't going to increase. This isn't going to get hockey more exposure. This is just going to create fights between owners and players, with players citing McDavid's contract as the new standard.

Revenues and salaries have continued to increase well above NA inflation since the lockout right up until this year, including through one of the biggest financial crisis ever.  

The cap didn't go up, but that won't stop EDM locking up the biggest generational star since Crosby and Ovechkin to the largest per annum ever ( it will take a while to beat Ovi overall given the insane term, although it looks like he's earned it for the most part).  

 

It won't hurt the NHL or cause tizzies between players and GMs because nobody is comparable.

[Toyotasfan]

Approx. 15% of the cap for the most elite players seems to be the norm . Based on Crosby , Toews , Kane . Edmonton is expecting to have the best player in the league for the next 8 years, and are paying a high price . Not being able to afford talent around him will be a challenge.

[Matt_T83]

1 hour ago, Toyotasfan said:

Approx. 15% of the cap for the most elite players seems to be the norm . Based on Crosby , Toews , Kane . Edmonton is expecting to have the best player in the league for the next 8 years, and are paying a high price . Not being able to afford talent around him will be a challenge.

 

I agree. Except 15% of the current cap (73 million) is 10.95 million. That's 2.3 million less than McDavid is set to make. He's going to make 18.15% of the cap which is really unprecedented. That's a lot of money. That extra 2.3 million is money you can't spend to get a depth 3rd line player or depth defenseman. That can be the difference between winning and losing a playoff series if you get injuries.

 

But your post actually addresses an interesting idea for the next CBA: Should contracts be allowed to pay players a percentage of the salary cap? One of the biggest conflicts between players and GMs when signing contracts is the uncertainty of the cap in future years. If McDavid signs for $13.25M/year and the cap only goes up by 1-2 million per year for the next 8 years, then the Oilers SERIOUSLY overpaid. However, if the cap rises by $3-4M/year for the next 8 years then his contract makes sense. However, there is absolutely no way to predict which scenario will work out.

 

Perhaps the new CBA should allow GMs to offer a player a percentage of the cap as a salary. That way you give McDavid 15% of the NHL salary cap per year for 8 years. If the cap rises, his pay rises. Would that make sense?

[Fanuck]

20 hours ago, S'all Good Man said:

they're worth whatever some one is willing to pay  greedy GM/Owner is willing to overpay for them

[linden17]

On June 29, 2017 at 2:29 PM, Matt_T83 said:

With the Oilers apparently set to pay McDavid around $13 million per year... I'm starting to wonder what NHL players are really worth at that level. You can't just keep having a linear increase in salary. At some point there have to be diminishing returns. Reports are that Draisaitl is going to get ~7-8M (in that range), or at least that's what he's 'worth'. So then is McDavid really worth 5-6M more per year? No way. You shouldn't pay 60-70% more money for 25% more point production.
 

The reality is that hockey is totally different than other sports. You look at basketball and players can play almost the whole game in the playoffs. McDavid can't be on the ice for more then 35-40% of the game, tops. Sure, if he was a basketball player he'd be worth $30 million. But in the NHL with limited playing time, he can't be worth more than $11-12. 

 

And what are the comparables? To me, Chicago really screwed up with Toews/Kane. Kane is still producing, but there's no way those guys are worth 10.5M. The better comparables are Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Steven Stamkos. With those comparables, I'd say McDavid is worth around $10-11M tops. And considering they're giving him a huge raise during his RFA period, he should take a pay cut. I'd suggest ~8M average for 4 years and then $11M average for the next 4 years for his contract. That's an AAV of $9.5M, right around what he's worth right now. 

 

If the Oilers sign McDavid for $13M it's going to doom them long term, and cause huge salary disputes between players and owners. I would go so far as to say this contract would be bad for the NHL in general. Revenues aren't going to increase. This isn't going to get hockey more exposure. This is just going to create fights between owners and players, with players citing McDavid's contract as the new standard.

i have a big problem with what you are saying. You r saying that revenues arent going to increase because of players like mcdavid making 13.25 million? draisaitl deserves what he is asking only because mcdavid helped him out. The fact that salary cap is rising in the nhl is exactly because the owners are making more......and lets wait for it.......REVENUE! if pittsburgh has done it with crosby. edmonton can do it to on this salary cap game

 

[coastal.view]

the true superstars are really worth what ever they can get

i watched gretzky in his prime

he was amazing

no one was like him

he was the face of the nhl

you cannot assess value just based on points on the ice

it is the whole package

on ice performance, how he improves all players on the team around him, the publicity draw.. he brings in fans to every arena in the league

everyone benefits

valuing all that surely results in a max contract

 

[Matt_T83]

5 hours ago, linden17 said:

i have a big problem with what you are saying. You r saying that revenues arent going to increase because of players like mcdavid making 13.25 million? draisaitl deserves what he is asking only because mcdavid helped him out. The fact that salary cap is rising in the nhl is exactly because the owners are making more......and lets wait for it.......REVENUE! if pittsburgh has done it with crosby. edmonton can do it to on this salary cap game

 

 

Sorry, I should have clarified that point. I meant to say that revenues aren't going to increase drastically. McDavid is set to make $13M AAV if reports are accurate, which is almost 30% higher than the other highest paid players. And a lot of those players are overpaid with albatross like contracts, and not exactly good comparables for a 'fair' contract (i.e. Weber, Kopitar, Toews, Kane). Right now teams are getting away with abusing LTIR to hide bad contracts. The Blackhawks are doing it with Hossa, and the Detroit Red Wings have been doing it for years with Johan Franzen. However, you can bet Bettman is going to start closing that loophole. Hossa is 'injured' because of a skin condition? Really? So you can't point to some of these contracts as good comparables.

 

I would argue that $10M AAV is a fair value for the NHLs 'best' players right now (meaning Crosby is underpaid). Revenues aren't going to increase by 30% over the next 4-5 years, which means the cap isn't going to increase by 30% in 5 years. The cap will most likely rise by ~15% over the next 5 years. When you're increasing the max AAV value of a contract by 30% in a period where the cap rises by 15%, the math is clear -- this is a significantly overpaid player. I don't care how good he is. He's not scoring 30% more points than other comparable players, and he doesn't deserve a 30% pay raise.

 

A fair contract AAV for McDavid is a 15% raise over the NHLs highest paid players. That would be around 1.15 * 10M AAV = 11.5M AAV. And that's without McDavid leaving any money on the table, which he should. He should want to help his team win a Stanely Cup, not fill his bank account. He should sign a contract that sees him slide up in pay over 8 years to 12M, leaving money on the table and signing for 10.68M AAV.

 

I would suggest a fair McDavid contract would look like:

 

Year 1 - 9.0M
Year 2 - 9.5M

Year 3 - 10.0M

Year 4 - 10.5M

Year 5 - 11.0M

Year 6 - 11.5M

Year 7 - 12.0M

Year 8 - 12.0M

 

This way his team can stay competitive and he's not massively overpaid.

[IBatch]

On 2017-7-1 at 0:43 PM, Matt_T83 said:

 

Sorry, I should have clarified that point. I meant to say that revenues aren't going to increase drastically. McDavid is set to make $13M AAV if reports are accurate, which is almost 30% higher than the other highest paid players. And a lot of those players are overpaid with albatross like contracts, and not exactly good comparables for a 'fair' contract (i.e. Weber, Kopitar, Toews, Kane). Right now teams are getting away with abusing LTIR to hide bad contracts. The Blackhawks are doing it with Hossa, and the Detroit Red Wings have been doing it for years with Johan Franzen. However, you can bet Bettman is going to start closing that loophole. Hossa is 'injured' because of a skin condition? Really? So you can't point to some of these contracts as good comparables.

 

I would argue that $10M AAV is a fair value for the NHLs 'best' players right now (meaning Crosby is underpaid). Revenues aren't going to increase by 30% over the next 4-5 years, which means the cap isn't going to increase by 30% in 5 years. The cap will most likely rise by ~15% over the next 5 years. When you're increasing the max AAV value of a contract by 30% in a period where the cap rises by 15%, the math is clear -- this is a significantly overpaid player. I don't care how good he is. He's not scoring 30% more points than other comparable players, and he doesn't deserve a 30% pay raise.

 

A fair contract AAV for McDavid is a 15% raise over the NHLs highest paid players. That would be around 1.15 * 10M AAV = 11.5M AAV. And that's without McDavid leaving any money on the table, which he should. He should want to help his team win a Stanely Cup, not fill his bank account. He should sign a contract that sees him slide up in pay over 8 years to 12M, leaving money on the table and signing for 10.68M AAV.

 

I would suggest a fair McDavid contract would look like:

 

Year 1 - 9.0M
Year 2 - 9.5M

Year 3 - 10.0M

Year 4 - 10.5M

Year 5 - 11.0M

Year 6 - 11.5M

Year 7 - 12.0M

Year 8 - 12.0M

 

This way his team can stay competitive and he's not massively overpaid.

Nice idea, unfortunately historically that's nothing like how superstars are paid.  Compared to say Yashins contract, Mcdavid is a steal at 13.25.  Also Ovi's contract is right in line with Conners given the cap max back then.

 

These guys, (Gretzky, Lemuiex, Crosby) are the face of the league during their tenure as the best superstars around.  Have no doubt he is, just look at how Lemuiex like he turned a career third line plug into a good second line producer....and Draisaitl should thank his lucky stars he also got time with him otherwise he would also likely not be getting a contract his size, including the playoffs when McDavid was Suttered and Potvined into submission ( playing against opponent best defensive forwards and defensemen).  

 

It's been a decade since a teenager won as much hardware as a sophomore, and it's only happened twice before, Crosby and Gretzky...

 

If he was a Canuck and Benning signed him to the same contract would you have as much as issue with it?

 

The league is lucky to have another player of his ilk taking the mantle at such a young age.  Every away game will see a big boost in attendance, and you can bet growth in general will pay for his contract over and over again, which in turn will increase the cap.  

 

Finally just look what's happened to the cap since it started.  It's average growth is  way, way above inflation.  Salaries continue to rise, and EDM won't be strapped for cash.  CHI has managed the cap better than anyone, and they have Keith, Kane, Toews, Crawford, and Seabrook taking up monster amounts of cap space, and PIT has had Malkin, Crosby, Letang and up until recently Fluery doing the same.  Collectively they have won six of the last ten cups, and Doughty, Quick, Carter, Kopitar etc two of the others.

 

Having McDavid and Draisaitl and the very beginning of their prime seems to follow the same formula....the road to the cup will likely be through them in the West, starting as soon as this year, heck Vegas had them as best odds to win last year after round one....

[Rob_Zepp]

You need 22/23 contracts and room for injuries.   If any one contract is more than 10%-13% of your total CAP and you severely hamper your team's ability to be competitive.   The numbers being discussed for McDavid are good for McDavid but bad for his team as CAP will likely not rise much for some time as global economic conditions speak to contraction versus boom times.

[linden17]

On July 1, 2017 at 9:43 AM, Matt_T83 said:

 

Sorry, I should have clarified that point. I meant to say that revenues aren't going to increase drastically. McDavid is set to make $13M AAV if reports are accurate, which is almost 30% higher than the other highest paid players. And a lot of those players are overpaid with albatross like contracts, and not exactly good comparables for a 'fair' contract (i.e. Weber, Kopitar, Toews, Kane). Right now teams are getting away with abusing LTIR to hide bad contracts. The Blackhawks are doing it with Hossa, and the Detroit Red Wings have been doing it for years with Johan Franzen. However, you can bet Bettman is going to start closing that loophole. Hossa is 'injured' because of a skin condition? Really? So you can't point to some of these contracts as good comparables.

 

I would argue that $10M AAV is a fair value for the NHLs 'best' players right now (meaning Crosby is underpaid). Revenues aren't going to increase by 30% over the next 4-5 years, which means the cap isn't going to increase by 30% in 5 years. The cap will most likely rise by ~15% over the next 5 years. When you're increasing the max AAV value of a contract by 30% in a period where the cap rises by 15%, the math is clear -- this is a significantly overpaid player. I don't care how good he is. He's not scoring 30% more points than other comparable players, and he doesn't deserve a 30% pay raise.

 

A fair contract AAV for McDavid is a 15% raise over the NHLs highest paid players. That would be around 1.15 * 10M AAV = 11.5M AAV. And that's without McDavid leaving any money on the table, which he should. He should want to help his team win a Stanely Cup, not fill his bank account. He should sign a contract that sees him slide up in pay over 8 years to 12M, leaving money on the table and signing for 10.68M AAV.

 

I would suggest a fair McDavid contract would look like:

 

Year 1 - 9.0M
Year 2 - 9.5M

Year 3 - 10.0M

Year 4 - 10.5M

Year 5 - 11.0M

Year 6 - 11.5M

Year 7 - 12.0M

Year 8 - 12.0M

 

This way his team can stay competitive and he's not massively overpaid.

in a perfect world i do see what u r saying but what was the cap when Crosby and Malkin signed their contacts? the pens made it work and have won three cups. my point is ,is that the oilers should have no problem making things work. as far as comparible contracts not being the same player....well thats the management of other teams fault. as far as ltir players. thats a problem the nhl and nhlpa need to look at. pronger, horton....ext. we know these guy are done. its a loophole. The amount a player like Mcdavid brings into not only the oilers but the league far rises above what mcdavid signed for. 

[IBatch]

On 03/07/2017 at 9:58 PM, Rob_Zepp said:

You need 22/23 contracts and room for injuries.   If any one contract is more than 10%-13% of your total CAP and you severely hamper your team's ability to be competitive.   The numbers being discussed for McDavid are good for McDavid but bad for his team as CAP will likely not rise much for some time as global economic conditions speak to contraction versus boom times.

During the US sub prime housing crisis blowup, and following global recession much to Bennings delight the NHL kept chugging along and the cap kept going up and up.  If it can go up 5-10 percent per year and times like those it could do it anytime.  It has stalled at last though....

 

This system is far from perfect, without ELC on each roster nobody can afford the three or four stars they need to compete, and with every team having one or two bone head contracts there's enough theres enough ammo for arbitration and the players themselves to feel they deserve more.  Toughest time ever to be a GM in this league, but at least the business is sustainable under the cap.

 

 

[Rob_Zepp]

13 hours ago, IBatch said:

During the US sub prime housing crisis blowup, and following global recession much to Bennings delight the NHL kept chugging along and the cap kept going up and up.  If it can go up 5-10 percent per year and times like those it could do it anytime.  It has stalled at last though....

 

This system is far from perfect, without ELC on each roster nobody can afford the three or four stars they need to compete, and with every team having one or two bone head contracts there's enough theres enough ammo for arbitration and the players themselves to feel they deserve more.  Toughest time ever to be a GM in this league, but at least the business is sustainable under the cap.

 

 

HIs contract at more than 15% of the CAP for Oilers will harm the on ice product.   

[IBatch]

1 minute ago, Rob_Zepp said:

HIs contract at more than 15% of the CAP for Oilers will harm the on ice product.   

Actually NHL.com did a nice job comparing his now official 12.5 for 8 year contract and how it is less than Crosby's second contract was percentage wise and they won with it.  Now Crosby and Malkins are 12 and 13 percent respectively, down from 17.5 when it started....Oilers will be fine with this, sign Draisaitl and be the next superpower or at least have a nine year window wide open.  I'm jealous.

[Rob_Zepp]

Just now, IBatch said:

Actually NHL.com did a nice job comparing his now official 12.5 for 8 year contract and how it is less than Crosby's second contract was percentage wise and they won with it.  Now Crosby and Malkins are 12 and 13 percent respectively, down from 17.5 when it started....Oilers will be fine with this, sign Draisaitl and be the next superpower or at least have a nine year window wide open.  I'm jealous.

Jealous?   Not sure why.   He is a great player but that is too much of the pie with a CAP that is likely going to stagnate for a number of years and even potentially contract.   TV revenue will be down (contract over) and the US/CDN rate hurts the NHL a LOT.   If LD signs for anything north of Lucic money, they will have more than a quarter of their CAP space for 3 players and that will limit anyone else (Nurse next deal etc.) getting anywhere near market value unless they have AHL lineup 3rd and 4th lines and after No. 3 Dman.   Further, with all due respect to McDavid and LD, they are NOT Crosby and Malkin.    

[IBatch]

10 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Jealous?   Not sure why.   He is a great player but that is too much of the pie with a CAP that is likely going to stagnate for a number of years and even potentially contract.   TV revenue will be down (contract over) and the US/CDN rate hurts the NHL a LOT.   If LD signs for anything north of Lucic money, they will have more than a quarter of their CAP space for 3 players and that will limit anyone else (Nurse next deal etc.) getting anywhere near market value unless they have AHL lineup 3rd and 4th lines and after No. 3 Dman.   Further, with all due respect to McDavid and LD, they are NOT Crosby and Malkin.    

I agree they are not Crosby and Malkin.  Those guys are legendary HHOF bound players.  But they have played out half their career, probably more given both their injury histories, and are in the downhill side of their prime.

 

Draisaitl and McDavid are just getting going,  and everything is pointing it will only keep going up.  Crosby and Malkins second contract cap hit will also be a higher percentage than the Oiler tandem, even if they sign Draisaitl to the same contract as Mcdavid got which would be ludicrous.   Most likely it will match Toews and Kane, now there's a dispute I can get on board with given they signed it with most of their best years behind them.  Yet somehow they can afford expensive players Keith, Seabrook and Crawford and still make things work for the rest of their roster in the mean time.

 

EDM will have enough for an elite  top pairing (Keith, Letang) and top goalie (Crawford, Fluery) plus Lucic just comparing CHI, or if you prefer, PIT.  The rest will be a revolving door of ELCs and affordable plugs which they will have in spades given they have the league's fourth best prospect pool (CHI, PIT don't have this luxury sitting near 30th, but Crosby seems to make anyone work anyways, just like McDavid did last year with Maroon), Puljajarvi should right his game and they will have room for him too.

 

You wouldn't want these guys on our team for say 21 million right until they are Crosby's current age?  By then the cap will be pushing  100 million.   Or if you want to compare it from last decade, 140 million as it doubled the first decade.

 

Gloom and doom becasue the cap didnt go up is understandable, but it will and guys like Mcdavid are the reason for it, and expansion will keep it going up as well.  The poor Canadian dollar is bad timing for Nordiques fans though...

 

Tell you what, if in five year from now if McDavid and Draisaitl haven't been to a cup final yet and the cap hasnt topped eighty million then I will agree this was a bad idea.

[Rob_Zepp]

3 hours ago, IBatch said:

I agree they are not Crosby and Malkin.  Those guys are legendary HHOF bound players.  But they have played out half their career, probably more given both their injury histories, and are in the downhill side of their prime.

 

Draisaitl and McDavid are just getting going,  and everything is pointing it will only keep going up.  Crosby and Malkins second contract cap hit will also be a higher percentage than the Oiler tandem, even if they sign Draisaitl to the same contract as Mcdavid got which would be ludicrous.   Most likely it will match Toews and Kane, now there's a dispute I can get on board with given they signed it with most of their best years behind them.  Yet somehow they can afford expensive players Keith, Seabrook and Crawford and still make things work for the rest of their roster in the mean time.

 

EDM will have enough for an elite  top pairing (Keith, Letang) and top goalie (Crawford, Fluery) plus Lucic just comparing CHI, or if you prefer, PIT.  The rest will be a revolving door of ELCs and affordable plugs which they will have in spades given they have the league's fourth best prospect pool (CHI, PIT don't have this luxury sitting near 30th, but Crosby seems to make anyone work anyways, just like McDavid did last year with Maroon), Puljajarvi should right his game and they will have room for him too.

 

You wouldn't want these guys on our team for say 21 million right until they are Crosby's current age?  By then the cap will be pushing  100 million.   Or if you want to compare it from last decade, 140 million as it doubled the first decade.

 

Gloom and doom becasue the cap didnt go up is understandable, but it will and guys like Mcdavid are the reason for it, and expansion will keep it going up as well.  The poor Canadian dollar is bad timing for Nordiques fans though...

 

Tell you what, if in five year from now if McDavid and Draisaitl haven't been to a cup final yet and the cap hasnt topped eighty million then I will agree this was a bad idea.

I am predicting it is a bad idea, you are not.  Will compare notes in a few years.