What are superstar NHL players really worth?

[Matt_T83]

With the Oilers apparently set to pay McDavid around $13 million per year... I'm starting to wonder what NHL players are really worth at that level. You can't just keep having a linear increase in salary. At some point there have to be diminishing returns. Reports are that Draisaitl is going to get ~7-8M (in that range), or at least that's what he's 'worth'. So then is McDavid really worth 5-6M more per year? No way. You shouldn't pay 60-70% more money for 25% more point production.
 

The reality is that hockey is totally different than other sports. You look at basketball and players can play almost the whole game in the playoffs. McDavid can't be on the ice for more then 35-40% of the game, tops. Sure, if he was a basketball player he'd be worth $30 million. But in the NHL with limited playing time, he can't be worth more than $11-12. 

 

And what are the comparables? To me, Chicago really screwed up with Toews/Kane. Kane is still producing, but there's no way those guys are worth 10.5M. The better comparables are Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Steven Stamkos. With those comparables, I'd say McDavid is worth around $10-11M tops. And considering they're giving him a huge raise during his RFA period, he should take a pay cut. I'd suggest ~8M average for 4 years and then $11M average for the next 4 years for his contract. That's an AAV of $9.5M, right around what he's worth right now. 

 

If the Oilers sign McDavid for $13M it's going to doom them long term, and cause huge salary disputes between players and owners. I would go so far as to say this contract would be bad for the NHL in general. Revenues aren't going to increase. This isn't going to get hockey more exposure. This is just going to create fights between owners and players, with players citing McDavid's contract as the new standard.

[JM_]

they're worth whatever someone is willing to pay

[Matt_T83]

4 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

they're worth whatever someone is willing to pay

Normally that would be true. But you'll note in my post I'm arguing that he's being given a hefty raise during an RFA period. I would argue the Oilers could hammer him with an $8.5M/year bridge deal for 2 years easily right now. However, they want to sign him long term. But does that mean he should start making $13M per year right after his ELC? He should take a pay cut for the 4 years of RFA, and then get $11-12M/year for the last 4 years.

 

This contract is going to be an albatross and cause chaos in the NHL.

[JM_]

4 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said:

Normally that would be true. But you'll note in my post I'm arguing that he's being given a hefty raise during an RFA period. I would argue the Oilers could hammer him with an $8.5M/year bridge deal for 2 years easily right now. However, they want to sign him long term. But does that mean he should start making $13M per year right after his ELC? He should take a pay cut for the 4 years of RFA, and then get $11-12M/year for the last 4 years.

 

This contract is going to be an albatross and cause chaos in the NHL.

totally agree, but its also about marketing. There's no need to do this deal now, at all, unless they want the marketing aspect to kick in now. He's not going anywhere, and the part that makes no sense in doing it now i it just makes the Draisaitl deal that much harder to do. He's not going to accept making 1/2 of McD's salary e.g. They could have easily worked on a deal for LD without this getting in the way. 

 

But good for us, I hope they lock 30 million into McD, LD and Lucic and we keep drafting high end D men. 

[Kragar]

Value is the worth you put on an item.

 

Real value is the worth others put on an item.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True Value is a hardware store.

(credit: Joe Martin, Mr Boffo comics)

[-AJ-]

People forget about inflation when it comes to salaries way too often. Crosby's $8.7M deal in July of 2008 is almost identical to a $13M deal today.

[joe-max]

Noone needs to earn more than $2-3M per year, maybe $4-5M for extreme exceptions. This includes athletes of all kind and any other job. I believe the NHL would be better off with a strict upper limit on salaries. They would never do it, of course.

[Rick Blight]

17 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said:

With the Oilers apparently set to pay McDavid around $13 million per year... I'm starting to wonder what NHL players are really worth at that level. You can't just keep having a linear increase in salary. At some point there have to be diminishing returns. Reports are that Draisaitl is going to get ~7-8M (in that range), or at least that's what he's 'worth'. So then is McDavid really worth 5-6M more per year? No way. You shouldn't pay 60-70% more money for 25% more point production.
 

The reality is that hockey is totally different than other sports. You look at basketball and players can play almost the whole game in the playoffs. McDavid can't be on the ice for more then 35-40% of the game, tops. Sure, if he was a basketball player he'd be worth $30 million. But in the NHL with limited playing time, he can't be worth more than $11-12. 

 

And what are the comparables? To me, Chicago really screwed up with Toews/Kane. Kane is still producing, but there's no way those guys are worth 10.5M. The better comparables are Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Steven Stamkos. With those comparables, I'd say McDavid is worth around $10-11M tops. And considering they're giving him a huge raise during his RFA period, he should take a pay cut. I'd suggest ~8M average for 4 years and then $11M average for the next 4 years for his contract. That's an AAV of $9.5M, right around what he's worth right now. 

 

If the Oilers sign McDavid for $13M it's going to doom them long term, and cause huge salary disputes between players and owners. I would go so far as to say this contract would be bad for the NHL in general. Revenues aren't going to increase. This isn't going to get hockey more exposure. This is just going to create fights between owners and players, with players citing McDavid's contract as the new standard.

McDavid could easily wait until he is a RFA next year before signing. If the Oilers offered him a bridge deal for $8M there would be 30 other teams offer sheeting him for $13M+. Owners and players had a maximum salary included in the CBA and all parties were aware that it could be utilized. If you are not going to pay McDavid the maximum, who would ever get paid the max?

[Nuxfanabroad]

16 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

they're worth whatever someone is willing to pay

We often hear this old cliche, but I'll question if it's worn-out.

 

OP has a good point.

 

OTOH..I'm a tired old ranter who's been goin on about this for about a quarter century! EVERYTHING to do with entertainment is a f***ing pyramid-scheme.

[nux_win]

28 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

they're worth whatever someone is willing to pay

Almost agreed.  They get whatever someone is willing to pay.  As far as I'm concerned nobody is "worth" $13 million a season for playing a game, even if it is our beloved game, no matter how good they are.  GCG!

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

We often hear this old cliche, but I'll question if it's worn-out.

 

OP has a good point.

 

OTOH..I'm a tired old ranter who's been goin on about this for about a quarter century! EVERYTHING to do with entertainment is a f***ing pyramid-scheme.

but its really true. Its like with all the Tanev rumours, we think that TO should give up a 1st round pick and 3 prospects, and they want to give us van Reimsdyk. 

[Kragar]

Just now, -AJ- said:

People forget about inflation when it comes to salaries way too often. Crosby's $8.7M deal in July of 2008 is almost identical to a $13M deal today.

Exactly.  You want to sign someone long term, you gotta pay big.  Sometimes you have to pay a premium, whether to counter Canada's higher taxes, or having to live in Edmonton for the worst part of the year.

 

A shorter contract now, while saving the Oilers money short-term, could mean having to pay much more later, or losing McD outright.  Management weighed the risks and the rewards, and are making their offer.  Sure, it's a lot of money, but if he has that much of an impact already, and is not in his prime yet, it could be seen as a steal in a few years.

 

But, like many CDCers, I hope it screws with them and their cap in the near term.

[Nuxfanabroad]

3 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

but its really true. Its like with all the Tanev rumours, we think that TO should give up a 1st round pick and 3 prospects, and they want to give us van Reimsdyk. 

Just clearin' out the cobwebs here with a cup of joe..I'd better not get ranting about pro sport salaries, in general. It's bad for my blood pressure :^/

 

As for Tan-man, we'd best keep him if getting low-balled. We KNOW that bloke's value.

[skolozsy2]

8 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

but its really true. Its like with all the Tanev rumours, we think that TO should give up a 1st round pick and 3 prospects, and they want to give us van Reimsdyk. 

Great reference as to what a players true value really is.  If the Canucks want a 1st, a prospect, and a top 6 forward for him, but the other team is only willing to offer an early 2nd round pick...then whats that players "true" value.

 

One man's trash is another man's treasure.

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, skolozsy2 said:

Great reference as to what a players true value really is.  If the Canucks want a 1st, a prospect, and a top 6 forward for him, but the other team is only willing to offer an early 2nd round pick...then whats that players "true" value.

 

One man's trash is another man's treasure.

Gotta agree.  JVR is ABSOLUTELY trash. 

[goalie13]

If you think players' salaries are out of whack now, imagine what they could have been without a salary cap.

[Rick Blight]

For those interested, this is an excerpt from the current CBA covering the maximum salaries allowed for any one player.

 

50.6 Maximum Player Salary and Bonuses; Fixed Dollar Amount of Player Salary. (a) No SPC may provide for a total aggregate Player Salary and Bonuses that is in excess of twenty (20) percent of the Upper Limit for any League Year (the "Maximum Player Salary and Bonuses"). For a Player signing a multi-year SPC pursuant to which he receives the Maximum Player Salary and Bonuses in any League Year during the term of such SPC, the Maximum Player Salary and Bonuses for every League Year covered by the multi-year SPC shall be based upon the Upper Limit at the time the SPC was signed. Illustration: Assume the Upper Limit is $70 million, and a Player signs a three-year SPC. The Player cannot receive more than $14 million in aggregate Player Salary and Bonuses (twenty (20) percent of the Upper Limit) in any year of that SPC, even if the Upper Limit in Year 2 or 3 actually exceeds $70 million, because any multi-year SPC providing the maximum allowable total aggregate Player Salary and Bonuses shall have the Upper Limit for the year in which the SPC is signed imputed across all years of the SPC. (b) No SPC may provide for a Player Salary and Bonuses in any year that is not fixed (i.e., every SPC must state the amount of dollars of Player Salary and Bonuses to be paid in each League Year during the term of the SPC, and cannot state that it will be indexed as a percentage of the Upper Limit). Illustration: Assume the Upper Limit is $70 million. A Player may sign an SPC for up to $14 million a year in aggregate Player Salary and Bonuses (twenty (20) percent of the Upper Limit), but his SPC must state the Player Salary and Bonuses to be provided as a dollar amount, not as "20 percent of the Upper Limit."

[skolozsy2]

9 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Gotta agree.  JVR is ABSOLUTELY trash. 

Lol, that was kinda funny. 

 

But in all seriousness, Toronto apparently thinks van Reimsdyk is worth a Tanev.  Different perspective, different value. 

[Alflives]

5 minutes ago, skolozsy2 said:

Lol, that was kinda funny. 

 

But in all seriousness, Toronto apparently thinks van Reimsdyk is worth a Tanev.  Different perspective, different value. 

Likely, considering their similar ages, that's about fair.  In our rebuild mode though, we need a U-22 guy, pick, or prospect.  I'm wondering with the recent draft of some top forwards if now JB would like back a young D for Tanev?

[skolozsy2]

21 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Likely, considering their similar ages, that's about fair.  In our rebuild mode though, we need a U-22 guy, pick, or prospect.  I'm wondering with the recent draft of some top forwards if now JB would like back a young D for Tanev?

Tanev may actually be worth ALL of that to a team at the trade deadline....might even be worth all of that to Toronto if they're doing well and they feel he's the one who will push them over the top.  A player's value can change quickly depending on the situation.