Making a case for a 2017-2018 playoff berth

[Hortankin]

5 minutes ago, mll said:

What fuss?  Never heard any of that.

I don't remember specifics but I'm sure the thread still exists. I just remember he wanted more $ than was originally offered and now that he's playing 1st line his demands will be higher

[mll]

1 minute ago, Hortankin said:

I don't remember specifics but I'm sure the thread still exists. I just remember he wanted more $ than was originally offered and now that he's playing 1st line his demands will be higher

I think you are confusing things.  

 

His current contract was signed on June 16.  That's even before the qualifying offer deadline.  Sounds like very smooth negotiations.  At the end of the season Baer told one of the reporters that a two-year contract would be amazing (I can probably find the quote if you want) - he got two years.

 

His first contract he was told to wait - they were trying to trade for Sutter so they had to first finalise the trade to find out how much cap space they had left to sign Baer.  He was signed a few days after the trade.  No issue there either.  I think some were confused that he did not sign his qualifying offer because it lapse mid-July but no players do instead they negotiate a contract.  Horvat hasn't signed his.  Neither has Chaput.

[Hortankin]

5 minutes ago, mll said:

I think you are confusing things.  

 

His current contract was signed on June 16.  That's even before the qualifying offer deadline.  Sounds like very smooth negotiations.  At the end of the season Baer told one of the reporters that a two-year contract would be amazing (I can probably find the quote if you want) - he got two years.

 

His first contract he was told to wait - they were trying to trade for Sutter so they had to first finalise the trade to find out how much cap space they had left to sign Baer.  He was signed a few days after the trade.  No issue there either.  I think some were confused that he did not sign his qualifying offer because it lapse mid-July but no players do instead they negotiate a contract.  Horvat hasn't signed his.  Neither has Chaput.

You could be right but I just remember there being issues there.. I hope your right

[mll]

17 minutes ago, Hortankin said:

You could be right but I just remember there being issues there.. I hope your right

I remember discussions about the qualifying offer but that was more about some posters not understanding that a qualifying offer is merely a formality to keep a player's rights. It expires mid-July and then players have no other choice but to negotiate a contract (re Horvat, Boucher and every other RFA who had not yet signed on July 15).

[J.I.A.H.N]

It is not that Tanking guarantees us the first pick.......tanking and being the worst guarantees us 4th if we end up last (not that we will), this goes for all the rest of the rounds where we would be picking 32, 63, 94th etc.......where we could pick up a faller

 

Vegas has us tied for the 2 to last position......Don't bet against Vegas!

[48MPHSlapShot]

I really don't there's much of a choice but to tank this year. Our D is in shambles and we have two career backups in net. 

[Rollieo Del Fuego]

We will make the playoffs this year with no key injuries (top 9 forwards, top 5 D.)

 

 

[48MPHSlapShot]

8 minutes ago, Rollieo Del Fuego said:

We will make the playoffs this year with no key injuries (top 9 forwards, top 5 D.)

 

 

So, in other words, it won't happen.

[shiznak]

I'm convinced that Hortankin and apollo are the same person.

[Riviera82]

3 hours ago, Rollieo Del Fuego said:

We will make the playoffs this year with no key injuries (top 9 forwards, top 5 D.)

 

 

Make the playoffs in a one-off, lose almost immediately, and then what? I for one see no benefit in that scenario.

[oldnews]

Just now, Riviera82 said:

Make the playoffs in a one-off, lose almost immediately, and then what? I for one see no benefit in that scenario.

Yeah, sounds like following in the tracks of this year's Leafs.   No thanks.

[6string]

Arguably Dallas made the best of the off season with their player/coach decisions. They climb back into a playoff spot at which teams expense?

 

Which of these teams fall from last years bottom half of the WC:  St.Louis, San Jose, Calgary....eh Nashville?

 

Now which of the last six seeded teams in the conference make the playoffs or a big turn around....Dallas or Winnipeg are my choices.

 

The Canucks with great young talent are two years away from making some big league noise again.

[oldnews]

23 minutes ago, 6string said:

Arguably Dallas made the best of the off season with their player/coach decisions. They climb back into a playoff spot at which teams expense?

 

Which of these teams fall from last years bottom half of the WC:  St.Louis, San Jose, Calgary....eh Nashville?

 

Now which of the last six seeded teams in the conference make the playoffs or a big turn around....Dallas or Winnipeg are my choices.

 

The Canucks with great young talent are two years away from making some big league noise again.

Radulov, Hanzal and Methot could certainly conceivably put Dallas back into the playoff race.  They also - like Vancouver - need some better luck where injuries are concerned.

 

Winnipeg - it seems inevitable that they breakout in the near future.  Not sure any other team in the NHL has as many quality young players - and not just up front.   Perhaps Columbus' roster- but have to like the Jets future and probably prefer their prospects not yet in the NHL.

 

My reverse dark horse guess for the team to fall this year is Minnesota.  They still have that nucleus that has kept them in playoff contention - but they are a team that doesn't have a great deal of organizational and prospect depth - they never seem to be able to get themselves out of the first round and I'm just no sold on the quality of depth in their lineup....

 

[DownUndaCanuck]

The veterans in Edler, the Sedins and Eriksson get older. Tanev gets older. None of those players are getting any better, if anything they're all going to be a bit slower and worse.

 

Yes, the young guys up front and on D are all going to be better, but not by much I don't think.

 

We lose our best player in Miller. We have Markstrom and Nilsson now in goal.

 

I think on the whole we might score a few more goals but we'll let in a LOT more goals through a weaker defence and much worse goaltending situation.

 

With Miller, we had a chance to make the playoffs. Now with two backups, we don't have a chance. Lots of potential for great individual success stories but I doubt we're any good as a team. 10th in the Conference at best.

[alfstonker]

On 7/16/2017 at 10:06 PM, Hortankin said:

Virtanen wasn't in the AHL to score goals. If you actually see how he shoots the puck and the shape he is in, a surprising 20G season from him next year isn't out of the question

Have you been hanging out with EdgarM? 

[alfstonker]

1 hour ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

The veterans in Edler, the Sedins and Eriksson get older. Tanev gets older. None of those players are getting any better, if anything they're all going to be a bit slower and worse.

 

Yes, the young guys up front and on D are all going to be better, but not by much I don't think.

 

We lose our best player in Miller. We have Markstrom and Nilsson now in goal.

 

I think on the whole we might score a few more goals but we'll let in a LOT more goals through a weaker defence and much worse goaltending situation.

 

With Miller, we had a chance to make the playoffs. Now with two backups, we don't have a chance. Lots of potential for great individual success stories but I doubt we're any good as a team. 10th in the Conference at best.

DUC, Tanev is 27, he's just coming into his prime for goodness sake.

AND the young guys on D are not going to improve MUCH? Why not, they have improved pretty well up to now. You need to lay off the dope bud.

 

O/A this has not been one of your better efforts.

[DownUndaCanuck]

2 hours ago, alfstonker said:

DUC, Tanev is 27, he's just coming into his prime for goodness sake.

AND the young guys on D are not going to improve MUCH? Why not, they have improved pretty well up to now. You need to lay off the dope bud.

 

O/A this has not been one of your better efforts.

I agree Tanev is young but realistically, we've seen him at his best. I don't think he's going to burst out to become a 40 point defenceman. He's a decent stay-at-home guy and we've seen him at his best 2-3 seasons ago. Last year he admittedly took a step back in his own play. Of course the rest of the team was rubbish and his partners are getting worse and slower, but Tanev has a pretty stable ceiling and I think he's reached it, and will stay there for a couple more seasons. I don't see him playing into his mid-30s purely because of how many shots he blocks and hits he takes, and the nature of his style of play, so I think what we're seeing is what we'll get from him until he's about 30 and then his play will regress.

 

As for the rest of them, very briefly:

 

Hutton is still an unknown. He didn't have a great sophmore season, and might get a new partner next year, but everyone expects him to be a monster 40-50 point D-man. He's a former 5th round pick who has played much better than anyone expected. We have to keep our expectations realistic. He has plenty of defensive flaws. He can't play very well physically. He's a fantastic skater and can make a brilliant first pass, but his shot rarely hits the net. The kid has a lot of things to work on, but even I believe he'll have a stronger season next year. Is a 40 point season out of the question? Absolutely not, but it'll be difficult with this anaemic offence and struggling defence. That's why I see him improving a bit next year, but certainly not a lot.

 

Stecher is an undrafted player who had a "breakout" season as an overaged rookie. He's probably the most primed for a sophmore slump more than anyone else. He played on our top pairing last year, and although I see plenty of potential in the kid, again, his partner Edler is only getting slower and worse, and now Stecher and Hutton won't be bailed out by Miller time and time again, so their mistakes will really show with two backups in net. I see Stecher hitting the 30 point mark but again, we're not going to see a massive improvement.

 

Gudbranson healthy all year will make a difference, but he's like Tanev - a stable ceiling, low-risk type of steady shutdown physicaly defenceman. We won't see an improvement from his game or regression. Unlike Tanev however, I think Gudbranson will peak later and sustain his style of play a lot longer (similar to Bieksa's durability).

 

MDZ is a nice addition and arguably worse defensively than Sbisa, but can pass the puck a tiny bit better. No change there IMO, we lose a bit of physicality though.

 

Wiercioch is certainly a big step down from Tryamkin and what he could have been next season.

 

That's why on the whole, I think Hutton and Stecher are extremely variable but should improve a bit over the off-season and be slightly better next year. I can't see Gudbranson or Tanev improve or decline in a season's time, and MDZ and Wiercioch over Sbisa and Tryamkin is a write-off in my books. Some would say they're a bit worse than our former Canuck defencemen but I think Del Zotto has some potential and Wiercioch, if used correctly, could really blossom in Vancouver but let's remember they're both rejects league-wide.

 

 

TL;DR - We need to stay realistic and keep some perspective here. Our veterans on D are getting older. The guys in their prime aren't going to change too much. The UFA signings are just replacements for what we lost to the KHL and Las Vegas. The two younger guys have some potential, but at the end of the day they're a 5th round pick and undrafted D-man so their ceilings are arguably capped at some point too. Juolevi is the only real bright spot and he's years away. Next year we combine our defence with Markstrom and Nilsson and we're going to get a real shelling, especially considering all of the teams in the Pacific got a bit better up front, in particular the Oilers and Flames.

 

It's going to be a rough year, we may well have the worst GAA when it's all said and done because this is a recipe for disaster.

 

The one saving grace might be Green's defensive structure so let's hope he can pull a rabbit out of a hat. He's the biggest decider in all of this at the end of the day.

[stawns]

On 16/07/2017 at 2:06 PM, Hortankin said:

Virtanen wasn't in the AHL to score goals. If you actually see how he shoots the puck and the shape he is in, a surprising 20G season from him next year isn't out of the question

Jake, Boes and maybe Goldy might very easily spend the season in Utica.

[Hortankin]

Just now, stawns said:

Jake, Boes and maybe Goldy might very easily spend the season in Utica.

Boeser deffiently isn't going to Utica lol.. and there's maybe a 5% chance Goldie goes down and Jake is 50/50

[stawns]

Just now, Hortankin said:

Boeser deffiently isn't going to Utica lol.. and there's maybe a 5% chance Goldie goes down and Jake is 50/50

Why wouldn't Boeser?  Because he scored 4 goals in meaningless games at the end of last season?  A rookie spending time in a development league is a good thing.