Joe Biden Debates Donald Trump September 29

[nuckin_futz]

8 minutes ago, thedestroyerofworlds said:

Based on what?

 

TRUMP barely won those 3 states, and his performance hasn't been great enough to improve his position.   Only papa Bush had worse approval at this point of his term and we all know how reelection went for him.  I would say it's far more likely that the Wisconsin polling is the outlier.   I'd hate to be wrong about that

 

Wisconsin is notoriously a difficult state to get accurate polling in. The Clinton campaign thought they were up 7+ points in Wisconsin and therefore ignored it in the final months of the election.

 

I agree with you that the Wisconsin polling is likely the outlier.

 

Pennsylvania is probably the big prize this election. Penn is 20 electoral votes. Biden is from Penn and quite popular there. You'd think he could take that one back. That's 20 out of the Trump column and 20 into the Biden column. That's a swing of 40 electoral votes. Pretty good when you're trying to get to 270.

 

2 minutes ago, CBH1926 said:

Polls had Clinton winning in 2016, few days ago Sanders was close to Biden in S.C., until he lost by 30%.

Polls are easily manipulated to get the desired outcome.

When I see Trump escorted out of the WH, I will trust the polls.

The polls gauge popular vote. Polls had Clinton up 2-3 points. She won the popular vote by 2-3 points. Accurate within the margin of error. In fact, deadly accurate.

 

The last SC polling I saw had Biden with a 20 point lead.

 

Can't really argue with your last statement though.

[CBH1926]

49 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Wisconsin is notoriously a difficult state to get accurate polling in. The Clinton campaign thought they were up 7+ points in Wisconsin and therefore ignored it in the final months of the election.

 

I agree with you that the Wisconsin polling is likely the outlier.

 

Pennsylvania is probably the big prize this election. Penn is 20 electoral votes. Biden is from Penn and quite popular there. You'd think he could take that one back. That's 20 out of the Trump column and 20 into the Biden column. That's a swing of 40 electoral votes. Pretty good when you're trying to get to 270.

 

The polls gauge popular vote. Polls had Clinton up 2-3 points. She won the popular vote by 2-3 points. Accurate within the margin of error. In fact, deadly accurate.

 

The last SC polling I saw had Biden with a 20 point lead.

 

Can't really argue with your last statement though.

CBS and NBC had Sanders down by 4 and 5 percentage points.

Fox News had Biden 20plus, I guess sun shines on dogs ass once in a while.

[RUPERTKBD]

Amy is out now as well. https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics/klobuchar-ends-presidential-campaign/ar-BB10DIdO?li=AAggNb9

 

Quote

 

Sen. Amy Klobuchar will end her presidential bid on Monday and endorse Joe Biden, a campaign aide tells CNN. 

The Klobuchar campaign confirmed that the senator is flying to Dallas to join the former vice president at his rally, where she will suspend her campaign and give her endorsement on the eve of Super Tuesday.

 

 

Reading between the lines, it looks like Pete is also supporting Biden:

 

Quote

On a conference call with campaign donors on Sunday evening, Mr. Buttigieg said he had reached the decision with regret but concluded it was “the right thing to do, when we looked at the math,” according to one person on the call. Without mentioning opponents by name, Mr. Buttigieg said he was concerned about the impact he would have on the race by staying in, saying Democrats needed to field “the right kind of nominee” against Mr. Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-drops-out.html

[Chicken.]

So once Warren drops out, the final Dem candidates are 3 old white men age 77-78 ..  interesting. if they serve 2 terms they would be like 85-86 years old when leaving office. wow!

[Alflives]

17 minutes ago, Chicken. said:

So once Warren drops out, the final Dem candidates are 3 old white men age 77-78 ..  interesting. if they serve 2 terms they would be like 85-86 years old when leaving office. wow!

Trump wins another term and the Dems will whine for another four years.  

[thedestroyerofworlds]

18 minutes ago, Chicken. said:

So once Warren drops out, the final Dem candidates are 3 old white men age 77-78 ..  interesting. if they serve 2 terms they would be like 85-86 years old when leaving office. wow!

Well, Jimmy Carter is 95 and still ticking.   I'd bank on Bernie being capable going int his second term than TRUMP being all there in 3 years.

[Chicken.]

1 minute ago, thedestroyerofworlds said:

Well, Jimmy Carter is 95 and still ticking.   I'd bank on Bernie being capable going int his second term than TRUMP being all there in 3 years.

Lol 1 example... how assuring for voters. I can agree though that Bernie seems to have more longevity than Biden whos gaffs seem to be increasing 

 

Just gotta keep punching at it and punching at it and punching at it I guess.. 

 

 

[nuckin_futz]

55 minutes ago, RUPERTKBD said:

Amy is out now as well. https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics/klobuchar-ends-presidential-campaign/ar-BB10DIdO?li=AAggNb9

 

 

Reading between the lines, it looks like Pete is also supporting Biden:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-drops-out.html

Seems weird Mayor Pete and Klobuchar would drop out ahead of Super Tuesday. I suspect they have both been promised something in return for getting out of the way.

 

So which one of them will get the VP slot and which one gets a plum cabinet position?

 

I'm guessing Biden/Klobuchar 2020.

[JM_]

Just now, nuckin_futz said:

Seems weird Mayor Pete and Klobuchar would drop out ahead of Super Tuesday. I suspect they have both been promised something in return for getting out of the way.

 

So which one of them will get the VP slot and which one gets a plum cabinet position?

 

I'm guessing Biden/Klobuchar 2020.

not really. Pete leaves on a high note with huge name recognition and doesn't have to be embarrassed tomorrow. I suspect he runs for a congress seat next. 

[nuckin_futz]

2 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

not really. Pete leaves on a high note with huge name recognition and doesn't have to be embarrassed tomorrow. I suspect he runs for a congress seat next. 

Well then I guess Biden just got very lucky the last 2 days.

[JM_]

1 minute ago, nuckin_futz said:

Well then I guess Biden just got very lucky the last 2 days.

I think Bernie takes it. At least I hope he does. I don't believe Biden is either a good candidate, or will be able to motivate millennial voters. He puts out weird lies, touches people in odd ways, and has flip flopped his entire career, Trump will rip him apart. 

[RUPERTKBD]

9 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Seems weird Mayor Pete and Klobuchar would drop out ahead of Super Tuesday. I suspect they have both been promised something in return for getting out of the way.

 

So which one of them will get the VP slot and which one gets a plum cabinet position?

 

I'm guessing Biden/Klobuchar 2020.

My guess as well. I was hoping for Kamala, but I can live with Amy.

 

On the other side of the coin, does Bernie ask Liz? Hard to imagine, after the little "you called me a liar" spat, but having her on the ticket might help Bernie over the hump....

[DonLever]

1 hour ago, Chicken. said:

So once Warren drops out, the final Dem candidates are 3 old white men age 77-78 ..  interesting. if they serve 2 terms they would be like 85-86 years old when leaving office. wow!

Trump is 73.  So does not matter if Democrat or Republican win the presidency.   The US is getting a old white guy age 70+ as president this year.

 

Warren is no spring chicken at age 70 and age 71 in November.   And she is unlikely drop out anyway.

[Tortorella's Rant]

DNC will ensure Biden takes it. Dem base will engage in civil war. And Trump will cruise to victory. 

[nuckin_futz]

24 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I think Bernie takes it. At least I hope he does. I don't believe Biden is either a good candidate, or will be able to motivate millennial voters. He puts out weird lies, touches people in odd ways, and has flip flopped his entire career, Trump will rip him apart. 

Remember Tuesday Bloomberg makes his first appearance on the ballot. Clearing Pete and Amy out of the way helps Biden get to the 15% threshold to secure delegates.

 

Could very well be Bernie, but I think Pres Bernie without the Senate would be damn near impossible to enact any legislation with teeth. Pres Bernie won't even get his choice of cabinet nominees through the Senate. Moscow Mitch will pick some of his cabinet for him and that would suck.

 

"here you go Bernie, for HHS secretary how about Matt Gaetz? You have the votes to confirm Gaetz"

 

22 minutes ago, RUPERTKBD said:

My guess as well. I was hoping for Kamala, but I can live with Amy.

 

On the other side of the coin, does Bernie ask Liz? Hard to imagine, after the little "you called me a liar" spat, but having her on the ticket might help Bernie over the hump....

Harris would make a good AG. Pus her senate seat is safe.

 

The Sanders and Warren camps are kind of at odds. Hard to say what happens there. Looking like it'll be everyone against Bernie.

 

Hard to guess who would be Bernie's VP given his very left positions. You can't really balance out that ticket with someone who is any less Bernie than Bernie.

Edited March 2, 2020 by nuckin_futz

[RUPERTKBD]

There's  a fair amount of angst surrounding both of the Democratic front runners, but while the predictions of doom are certainly possible, I'm not quite so convinced they're probable.

 

To hear it told, if Bernie doesn't win, the Millennials stay home....if Joe doesn't win, the blacks and hispanics stay home, handing Trump another 4 years...

 

While I might have agreed with that sentiment 4 years ago, (and back then I said Bernie would have lost to Trump) Democratic voters have seen 3+ years of a Trump administration and it's been far worse than they could have imagined.

 

So now, they just have to point out the existential threat that Trump's re-election presents. Do blacks really want another 4 years of emboldening racists? Do Bernie Bros want another 4 years of Climate Change denial? Do either group want further erosion of Healthcare or Women's reproductive rights?

 

It's not easy to put my faith in the American voter, but this time around, I don't think the GOP can count on the same level of apathy that led them to the 2016 EC victory.

[RUPERTKBD]

13 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Remember Tuesday Bloomberg makes his first appearance on the ballot. Clearing Pete and Amy out of the way helps Biden get to the 15% threshold to secure delegates.

 

Could very well be Bernie, but I think Pres Bernie without the Senate would be damn near impossible to enact any legislation with teeth. Pres Bernie won't even get his choice of cabinet nominees through the Senate. Moscow Mitch will pick some of his cabinet for him and that would suck.

 

"here you go Bernie, for HHS secretary how about Matt Gaetz? You have the votes to confirm Gaetz"

 

Harris would make a good AG. Pus her senate seat is safe.

 

The Sanders and Warren camps are kind of at odds. Hard to say what happens there. Looking like it'll be everyone against Bernie.

 

Hard to guess who would be Bernie's VP given his very left positions. You can't really balance out that ticket with someone who is any less Bernie than Bernie.

Does Castro have any kids?

[Kragar]

9 minutes ago, RUPERTKBD said:

It's not easy to put my faith in the American voter

I'll need to remember this statement the next time you prop up democratic socialism as a viable solution down here. 

[RUPERTKBD]

11 minutes ago, Kragar said:

I'll need to remember this statement the next time you prop up democratic socialism as a viable solution down here. 

Why? I don't follow....

[Kragar]

16 minutes ago, RUPERTKBD said:

Why? I don't follow....

If you can't trust the voters in the general election, how can we trust these many of these same people (on a far smaller scale, of course) to vote/make decisions to successfully manage a business.