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[Speculation] Boeser not close to extension

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Patrick Jane

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41 minutes ago, VancouverHabitant said:

Wow, did you just try and phrase that in a way that makes it sound like Boeser had bad linemates?  What are you, a politician?  

 

Yes, BB had to suffer through playing on a line with a rookie aka. Elias Pettersson. 

Pardon?

Come on now... My point is in 3 years EP Will have skyrocketed and BB will follow suit... as will most goalscorer playing with a superstar like EP.

 

Actually read it back, and can see how you said this... have changed it now. Cheers.

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It’s just the beginning of June for Christ sake. Of course things aren’t close. The Canucks will resign Brock, they are most likely waiting to see how the other RFAs sign for and negotiate from there. I mean Bo didn’t sign his extension until September I think. 

 

Just the media trying to stir up controversy as usual.

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58 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

When will he become a 40-50 goal scorer? How long will we be paying a premium for this potential to "save" later on? We will only be buying 3 years of UFA assuming he takes an 8 year deal, so why shouldn't we be saving on the RFA years? I'd pay him his value as a 40-50 goal scorer when he gets there, but I believe in paying for his value as of today. What if he never becomes a 40-50 goal guy and is simply just a consistent player where he's at now? If he's confident in himself improving and the Canucks want to ensure they are getting value for their player, then it makes sense for both sides to bridge. I think a 4 year deal is what's ideal for both sides at 6 million per. It's less than the supposed Nylander benchmark, but it's also a shorter contract, so if he performs, then he will be paid more.

 

With all that said, I'm fine if he wants to take 7 million over 8 years as I've suggested. But if he's looking for less term (at that price) or higher dollars, then he needs to bridge and earn it IMO.

I have no idea, its a gamble....but as you said yourself 'I'd like him to become a 40-50goals scorer as fast as possible'... 

 

It again comes down to having the money now to pay him, and save it for in 4 years time, when everyone most likely will look for massive payments, should they continue to improve... Thats the gamble, but nothing suggests they won't... Them being being Horvat, EP, BB and QH...  Lets wait and see. JB got a good deal with Horvat, but in 4 years when he is 28 and hopefully in his prime years, he'll be expensive if he continues his improvement.

 

Regardless Theo, I get you point and as I said before, I have no idea, how it will end up, but I just won't be surprised if he'll be paid a bit more than you suggested.

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9 hours ago, spook007 said:

The Calder front runner is still a rookie by definition, who also ran out of steam towards the end. Don't believe for a second, it was just because he focussed on, but we'll see next season.

Had EP been able to keep it up, BB might very likely have broken the 30 goals barrier and maybe even 35 goals, bearing in mind his production improved as got back to better health/confidence after his back injury?

Yes he was a rookie, but he was a rookie that was playing amongst the best in the league. To simply call him a rookie is underplaying him. But you have corrected this now. I also agree that he ran out of steam by the end of the season, but he was a known player possibly even before the half season mark and was drawing the top defensive assignments. Players were targetting him to get him off his game. As a rookie, it's no wonder why he ran out of steam by the end of the year (and especially after a couple of injuries later), but he was certainly opening up more space for Boeser to produce.

 

It could very well be that Boeser was also gaining back his confidence as his health got better, but I'd still like for him to prove himself. If he wants to be paid big dollars, it shouldn't be as a result of EP remaining consistent all year as it should be Boeser himself producing all year with or without EP (not say he can't go through slump stretches, but if his play is dependent on EP, then he's not a driver of the offense himself).

 

9 hours ago, spook007 said:

LE, Sutter, Beagle, Roussel may be off the books, but will have to replaced by other players, and hopefully there will be room in the budget to get better players or at least as good players to surround EP. BB and Bo. If anything that was what Gillis achieved although it cost us the future by trading away our top picks and adding NTC to everything bar the the door man. 

I understand we will have to replace them with other players, but we paid extra for a couple of these guys to come to a bottom team. We could get the same quality players for less (money and term) when we are more competitive which we would be if/when Boeser is producing at a higher rate (along with other players). It's simply shifting the money. Gillis gave NTC to core players, but got them to take "discounts". He traded top picks to make a playoff push, it's going to happen whether you like it or not in the future. Look at Winnipeg the last couple of seasons trading their 1sts.

 

9 hours ago, spook007 said:

 

I'm not assuming anything, but its fair to expect a 22 year old player, who's only had two full seasons in the league, to improve a fair bit still.

 

9 hours ago, spook007 said:

The point being, at the moment we lots of room to pay the players, where as when we truly becomes a contender we may need the space.

 

Either way it will be interesting to see how it pans out, and we can and will without doubt have the debate afterwards whether to hail Benning or Lynch him.

I expect Boeser to improve, but how much and when? We have two years where cap isn't an issue. Will he get past his injury issues? Will he add another element to his game? There are a lot of question marks still that he hasn't earned that big payout yet IMO. It's only savings on the cap if he achieves the highest goals set out for him. So everything would have to go right and unfortunately it doesn't always play out in that way.

 

Boeser should also be criticized if he doesn't live up to a mega contract. Not just Benning.

 

 

9 hours ago, spook007 said:

I have no idea, its a gamble....but as you said yourself 'I'd like him to become a 40-50goals scorer as fast as possible'... 

 

It again comes down to having the money now to pay him, and save it for in 4 years time, when everyone most likely will look for massive payments, should they continue to improve... Thats the gamble, but nothing suggests they won't... Them being being Horvat, EP, BB and QH...  Lets wait and see. JB got a good deal with Horvat, but in 4 years when he is 28 and hopefully in his prime years, he'll be expensive if he continues his improvement.

 

Regardless Theo, I get you point and as I said before, I have no idea, how it will end up, but I just won't be surprised if he'll be paid a bit more than you suggested.

He will become a 40-50 goal scorer sooner on a bridge where he knows once he proves himself, he will get paid well. If he gets handed the money now on a long term, where's the motivation until the end of that contract? The pressure will be on the Canucks and of course management will be blamed if Boeser looks overpaid rather than Boeser not upping his game. The risk is far greater than the reward of saving on 3 years of UFA where he still might get an even higher pay because you overpaid him to start.

 

It's going to depend on the market, but I hope the Canucks and Boeser can ignore the outside noise or hopefully the other GMs talk some sense into their RFAs and not run like how Toronto has done it. Their will be very quick cap epidemic over the league if we trend in Toronto's (and Edmonton's) direction.

 

If all our players play well after their RFA 2nd contracts, that can only be seen as a good thing because it means the top players are playing as the top players. You either pay them or flip them for a big return.

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Brock is the real deal.

 

Not a physical freak... but solidly built, brings elite offence, plays the right way, high character.  I love the idea of building a team around him with Bo and Pettersson.

 

Really hoping JB can get him locked up for 8 years at under 8 million.  Huge cornerstone piece.

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On 5/30/2019 at 3:42 PM, 18W-40C-6W said:

He should get slightly more than Bo given salary inflation.

That's exactly what I am thinking. Offer him a 2 year bridge deal at $6 to $6.5 and then reevaluate. He only has 140 games under his belt and is therefore not a proven talent yet. 

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3 hours ago, theo5789 said:

expect Boeser to improve, but how much and when? We have two years where cap isn't an issue. Will he get past his injury issues? Will he add another element to his game? There are a lot of question marks still that he hasn't earned that big payout yet IMO

Agreed. Expecting more than $6-6.5m when you are a 20 goal scorer with only two years experience under your belt is laughable. Let Brock shop around, he won't find any other teams willing to pay him $9-10m and the Canucks shouldn't either. 

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55 minutes ago, CptCanuck16 said:

Agreed. Expecting more than $6-6.5m when you are a 20 goal scorer with only two years experience under your belt is laughable. Let Brock shop around, he won't find any other teams willing to pay him $9-10m and the Canucks shouldn't either. 

That's the thing about RFA, he can't really "shop around" unless you mean get an offer sheet. But being a RFA is why they should be treated differently than a UFA where teams can get into a bidding war for your services at no asset cost. Teams will have to give Boeser offers and who knows if teams are willing to pay the price to acquire him plus give him an inflated deal on top of it.

 

If Boeser is offer sheeted for 8 million over 7 years or less, it's compensation is a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. The compensation isn't quite what I would take for the loss of Boeser, so I suppose it's the only way for us to take him on for that price. But it's also concerning because it means he actually agreed to the offer sheet meaning he's more after the money and is willing to ditch the team. Not a good sign of team character that I would want and would likely look to try and trade him at some point in the contract anyway.

 

I agree with the 6-6.5 range, so it should come down to term. If he want to get into the 7 million mark, then he will likely have to sign for 8 years for me to agree.

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35 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

That's the thing about RFA, he can't really "shop around" unless you mean get an offer sheet. But being a RFA is why they should be treated differently than a UFA where teams can get into a bidding war for your services at no asset cost. Teams will have to give Boeser offers and who knows if teams are willing to pay the price to acquire him plus give him an inflated deal on top of it.

 

If Boeser is offer sheeted for 8 million over 7 years or less, it's compensation is a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. The compensation isn't quite what I would take for the loss of Boeser, so I suppose it's the only way for us to take him on for that price. But it's also concerning because it means he actually agreed to the offer sheet meaning he's more after the money and is willing to ditch the team. Not a good sign of team character that I would want and would likely look to try and trade him at some point in the contract anyway.

 

I agree with the 6-6.5 range, so it should come down to term. If he want to get into the 7 million mark, then he will likely have to sign for 8 years for me to agree.

 

Boeser is not eligible for an offer sheet.  

 

8M x 7 years is 4 x 1st.   The contract value is divided at most by 5 years.  

 

 

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6 hours ago, theo5789 said:

Yes he was a rookie, but he was a rookie that was playing amongst the best in the league. To simply call him a rookie is underplaying him. But you have corrected this now.

So why bring it up... -_-

I corrected this once it was highlighted it could be seen as such. 

But to avoid any confusion...

EP had a great year and is a great player. 

Just like Brock did the year before...as a first year nhl player....all be it a great one. Better? :)

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I also agree that he ran out of steam by the end of the season, but he was a known player possibly even before the half season mark and was drawing the top defensive assignments. Players were targetting him to get him off his game. As a rookie, it's no wonder why he ran out of steam by the end of the year (and especially after a couple of injuries later), but he was certainly opening up more space for Boeser to produce.

True... just like I said in my previous post...

It was actually amazing that they both as a new top line partnership, one in his first season and the other in only his second (coming of serious injury) and with various other line mates of lesser quality, were producing as well as they were. 

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It could very well be that Boeser was also gaining back his confidence as his health got better, but I'd still like for him to prove himself. If he wants to be paid big dollars, it shouldn't be as a result of EP remaining consistent all year as it should be Boeser himself producing all year with or without EP (not say he can't go through slump stretches, but if his play is dependent on EP, then he's not a driver of the offense himself).

While, like most players, Brock will benefit from playing with EP, he also did produce the year before without EP, and was possibly only an injury away from serious Calder consideration... 

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I understand we will have to replace them with other players, but we paid extra for a couple of these guys to come to a bottom team. We could get the same quality players for less (money and term) when we are more competitive which we would be if/when Boeser is producing at a higher rate (along with other players). It's simply shifting the money. Gillis gave NTC to core players, but got them to take "discounts". He traded top picks to make a playoff push, it's going to happen whether you like it or not in the future. Look at Winnipeg the last couple of seasons trading their 1sts.

We can replace these players with similar ability for less money, but if we have more money available, we could possibly replace them with better quality, if we have more money available. 

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I expect Boeser to improve, but how much and when? We have two years where cap isn't an issue. Will he get past his injury issues? Will he add another element to his game? There are a lot of question marks still that he hasn't earned that big payout yet IMO. It's only savings on the cap if he achieves the highest goals set out for him. So everything would have to go right and unfortunately it doesn't always play out in that way.

True it doesn’t always play out like that, hence its a gamble. I think its fair to expect a good improvement. As I said Bo has improved every year despite signing long term. But of course no guarantees. 

 

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Boeser should also be criticized if he doesn't live up to a mega contract. Not just Benning.

 

Again true. But if the last few years have shown anything Benning is getting it in the neck if his signings doesn’t live up to expectations, and rightfully so, as he gets to make the decisions. 

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He will become a 40-50 goal scorer sooner on a bridge where he knows once he proves himself, he will get paid well. If he gets handed the money now on a long term, where's the motivation until the end of that contract?

Speculation.... while you a likely right, we don’t know money will motivate him more. 

Bo Horvat did ok despite a long contract, so money isn’t necessary the only motivation. 

 

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The pressure will be on the Canucks and of course management will be blamed if Boeser looks overpaid rather than Boeser not upping his game. The risk is far greater than the reward of saving on 3 years of UFA where he still might get an even higher pay because you overpaid him to start.

Yes management will. 

Again my point was that at the moment money isn’t an object, but could become so once we are ready to contend. 

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It's going to depend on the market, but I hope the Canucks and Boeser can ignore the outside noise or hopefully the other GMs talk some sense into their RFAs and not run like how Toronto has done it. Their will be very quick cap epidemic over the league if we trend in Toronto's (and Edmonton's) direction.

Totally agree. This is what we all hope for. Whether our own RFA’s will follow Bo lead remains to be seen though...

team building through fans glasses isn’t always the same as the players. 

 

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If all our players play well after their RFA 2nd contracts, that can only be seen as a good thing because it means the top players are playing as the top players. You either pay them or flip them for a big return.

Again true. Of course it is seen as a good thing if our Players are playing well after their 2nd RFA or at all times. 

And then you pay them.... If you have the money left to do so.

And thats why I think it should be considered to have a long term contract where the money is evened out. And probably at a lower total cost because of the gamble. 

 

I get what you are saying but still think there’s room to consider the alternative. 

 

Anyway thanks for your long response. Have a good night. 

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12 minutes ago, mll said:

 

Boeser is not eligible for an offer sheet.  

 

8M x 7 years is 4 x 1st.   The contract value is divided at most by 5 years.  

 

 

Simply takes away more from his side of the negotiation and supposedly for all RFAs in the same position.

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Sounds like Boeser may want what players in the NHL of his calibre are now making ($7-8). The Canucks, though, may be offering him a similar deal as Horvat ($5.5), which is a bargain. I think they`ll settle on $6 over 5 years. They have lots of time to sort it out. Maybe Boeser`s camp is waiting to see what Laine signs for.

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2 hours ago, theo5789 said:

That's the thing about RFA, he can't really "shop around" unless you mean get an offer sheet. But being a RFA is why they should be treated differently than a UFA where teams can get into a bidding war for your services at no asset cost. Teams will have to give Boeser offers and who knows if teams are willing to pay the price to acquire him plus give him an inflated deal on top of it.

 

If Boeser is offer sheeted for 8 million over 7 years or less, it's compensation is a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. The compensation isn't quite what I would take for the loss of Boeser, so I suppose it's the only way for us to take him on for that price. But it's also concerning because it means he actually agreed to the offer sheet meaning he's more after the money and is willing to ditch the team. Not a good sign of team character that I would want and would likely look to try and trade him at some point in the contract anyway.

 

I agree with the 6-6.5 range, so it should come down to term. If he want to get into the 7 million mark, then he will likely have to sign for 8 years for me to agree.

Yes, the problem has become that somewhere along the line, agents were able to convince some gms to start paying ufa numbers at RFA levels. This has caused the issue in the league of very small windows for teams to win before cap issue hit them as they are now paying younger players money that typically went to them at 28/29 once they’d earned it. It used to be rookie contract for 3 years,  stud player gets a 4-5year bridge at 4-5 mil then PAID at 27/28 Now they are getting that ufa money at 22. I’d be curious to look back and seen what contracts started this, and who were the gms

Edited by 18W-40C-6W
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On 5/30/2019 at 7:49 PM, 18W-40C-6W said:

I agree. He's in that danger zone of we don't know what he is yet. Is he a 40-50 goal guy or a solid 25 goal player with 30 goal upside. If he's smart and believes in himself, which he is, and knowing he's getting to play with Petey for the rest of his career, take the short term, prove it out at 40 goals and paid big on the next one. Not that 5 mil isn't big.

if Bo got a 6year 5.5mil per after his rookie contract.. there's no way boeser will settle for a 5mil 2-3 bridge. if he can get 7-8mil now why would he take the risk of taking a bridge deal and then end up not producing as expected and ends up with a crappier contract? he'll definitely be aiming at William Nylander at the very least

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6 hours ago, spook007 said:

So why bring it up... -_-

I corrected this once it was highlighted it could be seen as such. 

But to avoid any confusion...

EP had a great year and is a great player. 

Just like Brock did the year before...as a first year nhl player....all be it a great one. Better? :)

Because in the post I responded to, it still sounded like you were downplaying EP as a rookie to make the point across for Boeser.

 

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True... just like I said in my previous post...

It was actually amazing that they both as a new top line partnership, one in his first season and the other in only his second (coming of serious injury) and with various other line mates of lesser quality, were producing as well as they were. 

I'm glad their formed a good partnership, but Boeser took a while to get going and I think he has EP to thank for that. The serious injury is just part of the question mark as to wondering what he can do when fully healthy. Aside from the back injury, he seems to have wrist issues too (seems to have it wrapped up all year) and his shot didn't look quite as deadly as his first year. Brock should have every reason to want to sign a bridge and the Canucks should have every reason to want to see what he can do before committing big dollars on him.

 

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While, like most players, Brock will benefit from playing with EP, he also did produce the year before without EP, and was possibly only an injury away from serious Calder consideration... 

As mentioned above, the 1st year Brock was indeed impressive. The 2nd year Brock IMO left a lot more question marks for me. Brock had a late season surge which is a good sign, but the rest of his year was full of ups and downs and saw a slight dip in production from the season before. Before the back injury happened in the first season, Boeser was already wearing down (and looked to have a labouring wrist issue). So while Brock was right up there for the Calder for a good chunk of the year, Barzal ran away with it at the end. Even though Horvat has been trending up, Brock didn't quite do the same this season despite being put together to start the year.

 

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We can replace these players with similar ability for less money, but if we have more money available, we could possibly replace them with better quality, if we have more money available. 

The point is we are structured to handle the bump in pay. Say we give him 8 million now, but he becomes a 9-10 million after his bridge, we will have saved over 16 million to take on the extra million or two. And have 14 million to find equivalent replacements or better (and towards other extensions of which we also currently have 30+ million to work with) which is more likely if we indeed have a Boeser worthy of that type of contract putting us much closer to be a cup contender if not already.

 

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True it doesn’t always play out like that, hence its a gamble. I think its fair to expect a good improvement. As I said Bo has improved every year despite signing long term. But of course no guarantees. 

I expect him to improve as well especially if his health issues are sorted out. But what type of player will he be? An 8 million dollar current would put him at around the 15th highest cap player in the league. Last season he was 69th in PPG and 49th in GPG and quite honestly he doesn't provide a whole lot else other than this to his game. It's going to be quite the leap to make him an 8+ million dollar quality player to make this deal look like a bargain.

 

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Again true. But if the last few years have shown anything Benning is getting it in the neck if his signings doesn’t live up to expectations, and rightfully so, as he gets to make the decisions. 

People have complained about the UFA signings. I would find it very difficult for anyone to complain about any of the RFA signings. Overpaying now will only set a precedent to the future RFAs. The common complaint about the UFAs is that we have overpaid them in dollars and/or term and now we want to sign our RFA like those UFA signings by giving max term with a big dollar amount to live up to? Isn't that just setting it up for Benning to look bad then since it'll take quite a bit for Boeser to surpass those expectations?

 

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Speculation.... while you a likely right, we don’t know money will motivate him more. 

Bo Horvat did ok despite a long contract, so money isn’t necessary the only motivation. 

Money motivates most people. Horvat signed a long deal, but he signed a deal far closer to his value as a player at that time rather than what he might become. This is why that deal is looking incredible because No have quickly surpassed it. I have no problem giving Boeser the term if he takes the dollar amount that he's currently worth which is probably no more than 6-6.5 million a season. I believe Bo's deal doesn't buy any UFA years either and simply bought all his RFA years, which is what I'm looking at to do for Brock as well.

 

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Yes management will. 

Again my point was that at the moment money isn’t an object, but could become so once we are ready to contend. 

Money isn't an issue for the next couple of seasons, but that doesn't mean we blow it all now in hopes for a minor benefit later on. Plus you're setting a precedent for other RFAs who will want the same treatment meaning you will have to overpay them all at a higher rate which only puts you into more cap hell because they will be paid at a higher rate than they are worth for who knows how long and banking them all to improve beyond their inflated contract to be worth it in the last few years of the deal.

 

The way I see it here is that say Boeser could be signed for 6.5 for 5 years (the RFA years), but we are paying him the premium on those years at 8 million. We will have given him an extra 7.5 million over the 5 years. So in the remaining 3 years (assuming it's an 8 year deal), you put that premium spent there then you're looking at a 10+ million dollar player for those 3 years. Will he ever become that quality of a player to be "saving" that amount when the time comes? I think if he gets there, then I would simply extend him after his RFA bridge deal is done, but I personally believe he will max out at around a 8-9 million type guy (depending on inflation, could be higher but the cap will increase to even this effect), so why pay him that now?

 

 

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Totally agree. This is what we all hope for. Whether our own RFA’s will follow Bo lead remains to be seen though...

team building through fans glasses isn’t always the same as the players. 

There are certainly going to be players looking to take care of themselves first before the team. Hopefully with Benning putting character high on his priority list when drafting will find guys that think of team first.

 

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Again true. Of course it is seen as a good thing if our Players are playing well after their 2nd RFA or at all times. 

And then you pay them.... If you have the money left to do so.

And thats why I think it should be considered to have a long term contract where the money is evened out. And probably at a lower total cost because of the gamble. 

Well I explained why we would have money left to do so. The money only evens out if he outperforms the contract and it's a steep battle to start IMO.  If he simply just lives up to the contract, then you will have overpaid early and leave a bad example for the future when we have an incredible example right now in Horvat which would simply go to waste. Basically we are expecting Boeser to become a top 10 player in the game (based on pay and to current values, so maybe closer to top 20 paid in about 5 years time) by the time he gets to UFA years and that's just "evening out" the contract.

 

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I get what you are saying but still think there’s room to consider the alternative. 

 

Anyway thanks for your long response. Have a good night. 

Always nice to have a respectable hockey discussion. Cheers!

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5 hours ago, 18W-40C-6W said:

Yes, the problem has become that somewhere along the line, agents were able to convince some gms to start paying ufa numbers at RFA levels. This has caused the issue in the league of very small windows for teams to win before cap issue hit them as they are now paying younger players money that typically went to them at 28/29 once they’d earned it. It used to be rookie contract for 3 years,  stud player gets a 4-5year bridge at 4-5 mil then PAID at 27/28 Now they are getting that ufa money at 22. I’d be curious to look back and seen what contracts started this, and who were the gms

Toronto certainly hasn't helped things lately, but I agree it likely started even before. Edmonton didn't help with McDavid's contract because while his offensive numbers have indeed been impressive, he's far from a complete player and it had bumped up what Draisaitl likely would've gotten. Buffalo's deal with Eichel doesn't look good either. These are the most recent examples off the top of my head, but not sure if it started here either.

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9 hours ago, CptCanuck16 said:

That's exactly what I am thinking. Offer him a 2 year bridge deal at $6 to $6.5 and then reevaluate. He only has 140 games under his belt and is therefore not a proven talent yet. 

How about no? You don't give him $6-6.5 million per year for only two years. At that price, it has to be at least six years. That's a horrible deal for a bridge contract.

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53 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

Toronto certainly hasn't helped things lately, but I agree it likely started even before. Edmonton didn't help with McDavid's contract because while his offensive numbers have indeed been impressive, he's far from a complete player and it had bumped up what Draisaitl likely would've gotten. Buffalo's deal with Eichel doesn't look good either. These are the most recent examples off the top of my head, but not sure if it started here either.

True but McDavid makes sense, and while Draisaittl looked like a “rich deal” at the time, he scored 50 goals this year and 105 pts. It’s actually cheap now if he continues that type of production! 

 

I think there’s a list of middling guys who got well overpaid that started this, Nylander is just another example.

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1 hour ago, wai_lai416 said:

if Bo got a 6year 5.5mil per after his rookie contract.. there's no way boeser will settle for a 5mil 2-3 bridge. if he can get 7-8mil now why would he take the risk of taking a bridge deal and then end up not producing as expected and ends up with a crappier contract? he'll definitely be aiming at William Nylander at the very least

He won’t get 8 now without term. I’d say around 6-6.5 short term but his agent will be asking 9ish. 

 

Canucks won’t pay that money for a short term deal. He’s scored 55 pts not 80+

 

My guess is if it’s a bridge is Bo numbers plus a little extra. If it’s 7 yrs then it’s 7.5 ish. 

Edited by 18W-40C-6W
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