CaptainLinden16 Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 (edited) 4 hours ago, 189lb enforcers? said: https://www.tsn.ca/miller-trade-the-result-of-vancouver-s-past-draft-failures-1.1327724 I see someone has complied something a little more objective in comparing these two teams. Take a look, if you dare, but be warned... it’s depressing. DFL... that’s sad. You are taking way to broad of a stroke here and so is the author comparing from 2007 onward is really misleading as it has too many variables. We are talking about multiple regimes. You can't possibly pin bad drafting pre 2014 on Jimbo. Whats interesting to note in these numbers too is a team like Edmonton in the top 5. A team like Colorado in the top 5. A team like the New York Islanders in the top 5. These are three of the worst teams. Terrible teams. Drafting high skews this data significantly. Hedman and Stamkos also significantly skew the data for TB and you know where they drafted (1 and 2). Also the 2014 draft is rated worst when its arguably the best Demko, Tryamkin, Virtanen, McCann, Frosling. It is too early to call it crap. Based off of his statistical rankings it is the 2nd worst draft in the whole NHL for that year. I would really disagree. This is definitely using statistics to lie. This guy is using numbers to fit an argument rather than having them explain one. Fairly convenient article for the conversation though. Well spotted! The guy says himself!: The total WAR table, which is a mere aggregation blind to unitization or expected draft value by pick selection, looks as follows of course a 1st overall pick in Stamkos, McDavid, Tavares etc... will have the highest WAR scores. Edited June 25, 2019 by CaptainLinden16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashian Kassian Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Hutton Wink said: Miller hasn't "any value"? They didn't get a 1st this year, not necessarily next, but maybe two years from now. That is significantly reduced value compared to the same return at the TDL, for a top-6 player in his prime on a good contract. You can't compare it to the TDL. The TDL is a totally different beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaudette Celly Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said: You can't compare it to the TDL. The TDL is a totally different beast. It's below market at any time for what he is. We got him at a discount, by any possible metric. And yet, Tampa didn't give up "any value"? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coryberg Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 47 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said: Thought I only heard him say he wanted to add "at least one defenceman"? If another top-6 that would explain interest in Nyquist; perhaps Baertschi is near-done or heading to LTIR? Near the end at the 4:15 mark 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said: You can't compare it to the TDL. The TDL is a totally different beast. Okay, all I'm going to say here is you can compare trades with other trades. Not being able to compare the TDL with now? That's nothing but horse manure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashian Kassian Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 Just now, Hutton Wink said: It's below market at any time for what he is. We got him at a discount, by any possible metric. And yet, Tampa didn't give up "any value"? How can you say that when you don't even know what this pick is yet? 1st round pick for a solid top 6 F or solid top 4 D fwd isn't less than fair value, is it? Marcus Johansson was traded to NJ in the 2017 offseason, in a cap clearing move for WSH, and he returned a 2nd & a 3rd. That was after 24 goals & 58 points. That's a discount. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Ghost Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 20 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said: Well how do you know that they had a first rounder they could've gotten immediately?? I should've added 1st "from a non playoff team". And yes because they were up against a cap wall. And Its not just up against a cap wall, JT Miller's NTC was just about to kick in too. For them to make this move before that complicated matters is huge. Not only did they get the salary relief they desperately needed, they got a premium in return. They didn't have to give up any value on Miller in a move they needed to make. Thats absolutely a home-run. Like we're talking about a mid/late first being fair value from our end, and fair enough. From the Tampa Bay side that's worst case scenario. There's still another side to it where this pick could be much better than just fair value. They didnt need to move Miller exclusively though. They had other players they could have moved for less of a return. Plus, the Callahan announcement took some of the cap pressure off. Tampa made a concious decision to give Miller up because he was an asset that could get them an actual return. They easily could have made a different choice to keep Miller and move a less desirable player for a lesser return or even having to sweeten to dump a player. Miller would have gotten a lot more if they had no cap crunch and no ntc kicking in. Its a solid single with the potential to be a double, triple, or homerun depending on how the Canucks fare the next two years. For the Canucks, i think its a double right now with potential to be a triple or a homerun depending on how Miller fits in and how the Canucks fare. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 For the record, I believe we got him at a reasonable price, but I don't see how it's a discount. It's a trade that worked for both sides. Simple as that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashian Kassian Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 1 minute ago, The Lock said: Okay, all I'm going to say here is you can compare trades with other trades. Not being able to compare the TDL with now? That's nothing but horse manure. Fine. Paul Gaustad was traded for a 1st round pick at the TDL. Martin Erat was traded for Filip Forsberg at the TDL. Those are the standards we'll compare every trade to then. So why didn't Jim Benning get a better return for Hansen & Burrows???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coryberg Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 28 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said: And yes because they were up against a cap wall. They were bailed out of that days before when Callahan went on career ending LTIR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 Just now, Smashian Kassian said: Fine. Paul Gaustad was traded for a 1st round pick at the TDL. Martin Erat was traded for Filip Forsberg at the TDL. Those are the standards we'll compare every trade to then. So why didn't Jim Benning get a better return for Hansen & Burrows???? And we traded for Keith Ballard at this time of year. There's good and bad trades that can happen whenever. What's your point? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaudette Celly Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Smashian Kassian said: How can you say that when you don't even know what this pick is yet? If you now want to go down that road, then you cannot likewise criticize this trade value-wise AT ALL. And you still haven't explained how Tampa didn't give up "any value". Seems you're just throwing out conjecture and assertions wildly without any basis whatsoever. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post coryberg Posted June 25, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted June 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said: Marcus Johansson was traded to NJ in the 2017 offseason, in a cap clearing move for WSH, and he returned a 2nd & a 3rd. That was after 24 goals & 58 points. That's a discount. 2nd and a 3rd for a 1 season deal. Conditional* 1st and a 3rd for a 4 season deal. That's a discount. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaudette Celly Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, The Lock said: For the record, I believe we got him at a reasonable price, but I don't see how it's a discount. It's a trade that worked for both sides. Simple as that. What is the normal value of a top-6 C/W in his prime putting up 50-60 points and locked up for 4 years at $5.25mil? Right now, straight-up if you wanted to trade for one? Certainly more than a future conditional first round pick and a current third. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaudette Celly Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, coryberg said: 2nd and a 3rd for a 1 season deal. Conditional* 1st and a 3rd for a 4 season deal. That's a discount. Context is severely lacking, but is such a significant factor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashian Kassian Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Silver Ghost said: They didnt need to move Miller exclusively though. They had other players they could have moved for less of a return. Plus, the Callahan announcement took some of the cap pressure off. Tampa made a concious decision to give Miller up because he was an asset that could get them an actual return. They easily could have made a different choice to keep Miller and move a less desirable player for a lesser return or even having to sweeten to dump a player. Miller would have gotten a lot more if they had no cap crunch and no ntc kicking in. Its a solid single with the potential to be a double, triple, or homerun depending on how the Canucks fare the next two years. For the Canucks, i think its a double right now with potential to be a triple or a homerun depending on how Miller fits in and how the Canucks fare. Well I don't think its as simple as saying they could've traded anyone. McDonagh & Hedman are the only big tickets on the backend & they weren't moving them. They weren't moving Palat, Stamkos, Kucherov or Groude (after recently re-signing him). Maybe they could've tried to move Johnson or Killorn, but those guys make less then Miller, fill a similar role & have been more productive for them long term than JT Miller. If Miller was coming off a 58 point season & they didn't need to move him maybe. I think they got pretty good value though. 1st & a high-ish 3rd is a pretty good return. I'd say considering circumstances its atleast a triple with potential to become a grand slam. The piece coming back is good for both sides, Miller will make us better. But Tampa definitely did a wonderful job here too managing there assets, under some pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spook007 Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 (edited) 4 hours ago, VegasCanuck said: See, here's what I'm wondering, and I just posted essentially this, in another thread. If Miller was a RFA, and we were to sign him to an offer sheet, I think most fans and probably most sports writers would have been pretty good with it. According to Capfriendly, the compensation for signing someone in the 5 million range is a 1st and a 3rd. Add in a contract dump to balance out the contract numbers and isn't that strange, that a 1st and a 3rd is EXACTLY what it cost us? Established market value for a 5.25 million, top 6 forward. Fair value Well said. Thats just it. The naysayers seems split in two camps. The ones who swears by drafting only, and the ones who wants/likes trades, but expects them all to be massive wins. Nothing wrong with fair trades... on top of that, who knows what the conversation was like between the two GMs, or who else was in on Miller... JB could had walked away empty handed and have kept his conditional 1st, but that wouldn’t have improved the team. JB did something to get the club moving forward faster. Time will tell if it works out, but at least JB is now moving to force the issue. Time to start our playoffs push. Edited June 25, 2019 by spook007 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said: What is the normal value of a top-6 C/W in his prime putting up 50-60 points and locked up for 4 years at $5.25mil? Right now, straight-up if you wanted to trade for one? Certainly more than a future conditional first round pick and a current third. I think he's a good contract and if you're talking just in terms of contract, then his contract is at a good discount. However, trade wise, I think it was a deal that just worked for both sides. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post danaimo Posted June 25, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted June 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, coryberg said: 2nd and a 3rd for a 1 season deal. Conditional* 1st and a 3rd for a 4 season deal. That's a discount. Hey that's not fair. Your using sound logic and facts to make a point. That kind of behaviour will not be tolerated around here. Be hysterical and emotional instead. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashian Kassian Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, coryberg said: They were bailed out of that days before when Callahan went on career ending LTIR Brayden Point just scored 41 goals & 92 points. Callahan's 5.8 was not going to get it done. 8 minutes ago, The Lock said: And we traded for Keith Ballard at this time of year. There's good and bad trades that can happen whenever. What's your point? That the trade deadline is a totally different beast. Not totally comparable to deals made in the summer. 7 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said: If you now want to go down that road, then you cannot likewise criticize this trade value-wise AT ALL. And you still haven't explained how Tampa didn't give up "any value". Seems you're just throwing out conjecture and assertions wildly without any basis whatsoever. LOL. Have you watched this team play hockey the last 4 years. JT Miller alone doesn't make them a playoff team, at the point of making the trade it wasn't a playoff team. They've picked top 10 the last 4 years, that's what we have to go off in judging where the draft pick could end up. Are we going to take a step this year? Yes, I'm expecting so. Doesn't guarantee playoffs though, and it doesn't guarantee that this is a mid/late pick we're giving up. 5 minutes ago, coryberg said: 2nd and a 3rd for a 1 season deal. Conditional* 1st and a 3rd for a 4 season deal. That's a discount. The 'conditional' doesn't mean F-All. Its a 1st no matter what. Again, how can we say its a discount when you don't know where that pick ends up. There's this assumption that the pick is going to be late when were calling it a discount. And even then, its not less than fair value. JT Miller is a good 2nd line player but this isn't an elite player. Its a high 3rd & a non-playoff team giving up a first round pick. Hardly a discount. 1 minute ago, Hutton Wink said: Context is severely lacking, but is such a significant factor. You mean like context in where this team has drafted? Your whole thing is going on an assumption of this pick being late 1st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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