[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[theo5789]

16 minutes ago, Provost said:

Took a while to digest this.

 

I think it was a bad trade for a few reasons.

 

- Almost all the risk is on our end.  If everything goes perfectly for us and this ends up a 20th or later pick next year, Tampa is still happy with the trade and we can say it was fair.  If we gave up a lottery pick, then no one can argue it was a good trade.

- it looks like with a 1st round pick, a 3rd round pick, and $12+ million in cap space we are going to end up with J.T. Miller and Myers.  You would have a hard time convincing me that there weren’t a couple of deals/signings out there in combination that net us better players at both positions.  Does a 1st and 3rd get you any of Ristolainen, Hamilton, Pesce, etc?  Does it get you Gusev and Colin Miller... still leaving you $5+ million in cap space to recoup a 1st round pick by eating a salary like Marleau?  Coupd you trade the 1st and 3rd for Gusev and Colin Miller, and then sign Anders Lee (a much better forward than J.T.).  Could you eat Marleau’s salary for a 1st, and then swap that, our 1st, and a 3rd for Provorov who is still not signed?  There are many combinations that net us out better.

-  JB has now put himself in a bad leverage spot with Myers.  There are few top 4 D available and everyone on the planet knows we need one of them badly, especially because we don’t dare go into the season with the same D and increase the risk of our first is worth more to Tampa.

 

None of this has anything to do with whether Jay Miller is a good player or fit.  He is certainly an upgrade.  Realistically though, we don’t know if he will be a winger on our top line or our 3rd line centre.  He could have been buried behind depth in Tampa and just needs the chance to become a consistent 25 goal, 50+ point guy.  Then again, maybe they only reason his point totals are as good as they were in Tampa is that he only ever had to face the opposition’s 3rd pairing D, because they had a lot bigger things to worry about than him.

 

Worst case, we gave up a top lottery pick plus a sweetener for a slight upgrade in Sutter.  Best case, we paid full retail value on an average top 6 player.

The fact that everyone "knows" that we are in desperate need for a top 4 dman is what will make teams demand a far higher price than a 1st and 3rd for even a marginal top 4 dman. We take our open spot and take it to a UFA like Myers and tell him that we can give him the minutes and be a key contributor. If he wants to use this as leverage to ask for more money or whatever, then we are not forced to sign him and he can be someone else's mistake. Now that we are basically telling the hockey world, we want to be competitive at earliest this upcoming season, hopefully that means the players that want to win will see this and not look for the inflated deals to go to a bottom feeder.

 

I think we could still nab a Colin Miller for good value considering Vegas is now basically over the cap by 3 million (with Clarkson relief) and still needing to sign 3 or 4 more guys who at minimum cost would add 2-2.5 million more, plus need to have a replacement for Miller should they move him.

 

Green has already mentioned they would like to see Miller with EP and BB. But he would be good insurance should a Sutter go down or if we are out several centers again like last season. So best case scenario is actually have a top 6 guy clicking with our youth to take the line to another level.

 

I think we need to get out of the mindset that a trade is only "won" by "fleecing" the other team. We currently have the best player in the trade and by the time we find out if that 1st rounder would've been better to keep, hopefully we are well on our way in pursuit of the Cup.

[Gaudette Celly]

4 hours ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

I think the best case scenario is that we bottom out next year and keep our top 10 pick in a loaded draft. We then return with a vengeance the year after and try to mitigate the damage as much as possible. 

You did not seriously say that?  Not only do we have Bo, Boeser, and Petey which despite mass injuries had us to within weeks of the playoffs, but now adding Hughes and Miller and about to get new RDs?  Did you not watch any games last year, or have any idea what the roster looks like?

[appleboy]

2 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

You said if the team regresses or doesn't improve. Thats obvious.

 

But what could cause that to be the case? (is what im asking) To me those issues are already apparent. 

 

What im getting at here, is just saying "then there bigger problems" isnt justification, its just pointing out the obvious.

 

Theres nothing wrong with liking the trade. I like the move in that were getting a great player, but there is some risk involved that cant just be ignored or brushed aside either.

 

 

 

There is always risk involved in moving a top pick for a 26 year old. You give up 8 years of potential playing time. That's why it is usually a move that is done by clubs that are close. Teams that are looking for that last piece or two. We are a building team . One with more holes then swiss cheese.  If and it is a big if that pick becomes a lotto pick and it lands a top 3 pick we will all be very upset. We could miss out on a franchise player. 

Every time a team try's to speed up a rebuild it is at the risk of setting things back.  Now , it is a gamble and it might work out. I have been trying to get some info on the 2021 draft round but it is hard to say yet.

I think Benning and the owners are rolling the dice and hopping for the best. Is that the kind of management you can trust?  This would have been a good year to , say land another first not sell one. 

We will see how the year unfolds but I don't think it will end up with a playoff birth.  

[Gaudette Celly]

4 hours ago, Bure_Pavel said:

This was a bad trade by Benning , to gamble our future

Holy hyperbolic DRAMA.

 

Quote

Tampa needed to clear cap space, there is no reason to overpay.

Overpay what?  What do you actually think the value is of a prime-age 50-60 point top-6 C/W locked into a good contract?  Mere rentals get far more return than a future 1st a year or two from now.

 

Quote

As much as our team has improved we are still will be only a potential wild card team for the next two years, as we have to leap frog Calgary, Vegas, and San Jose still. 2020 is a super deep draft,

If our team is still all that crappy, we have a lotto pick in that draft.  So what's the problem?

 

Quote

should have keep our first rounders and traded other picks/weaponized cap to improve the team. NJ got Subban with out giving up a first....  

Right, use up our cap space on garbage instead of improving the team, just to get some magic beans?  Oh wait, you'd rather eat it up with Subban... but then he might get the team to squeak into the playoffs and miss out on the lotto (just like Miller might do) and you've given up multiple 2nds in the process to boot.

[danaimo]

24 minutes ago, Provost said:

Took a while to digest this.

 

I think it was a bad trade for a few reasons.

 

- Almost all the risk is on our end.  If everything goes perfectly for us and this ends up a 20th or later pick next year, Tampa is still happy with the trade and we can say it was fair.  If we gave up a lottery pick, then no one can argue it was a good trade.

 

- it looks like with a 1st round pick, a 3rd round pick, and $12+ million in cap space we are going to end up with J.T. Miller and Myers.  You would have a hard time convincing me that there weren’t a large number of deals/signings out there in combination that net us better players at both positions.  Does a 1st and 3rd get you any of Ristolainen, Hamilton, Pesce, etc?  Does it get you Gusev and Colin Miller... still leaving you $5+ million in cap space to recoup a 1st round pick by eating a salary like Marleau?  Could you trade the 1st and 3rd for Gusev and Colin Miller, and then sign Anders Lee (a much better forward than J.T.).  Could you eat Marleau’s salary for a 1st, and then swap that, our 1st, and a 3rd for Provorov who is still not signed?  There are many combinations that net us out better.

-  JB has now put himself in a bad leverage spot with Myers.  There are few top 4 D available and everyone on the planet knows we need one of them badly, especially because we don’t dare go into the season with the same D and increase the risk of our first is worth more to Tampa.

 

None of this has anything to do with whether Jay Miller is a good player or fit.  He is certainly an upgrade.  Realistically though, we don’t know if he will be a winger on our top line or our 3rd line centre.  He could have been buried behind depth in Tampa and just needs the chance to become a consistent 25 goal, 50+ point guy.  Then again, maybe they only reason his point totals are as good as they were in Tampa is that he only ever had to face the opposition’s 3rd pairing D, because they had a lot bigger things to worry about than him.

 

Worst case, we gave up a top lottery pick plus a sweetener for a slight upgrade in Sutter.  Best case, we paid full retail value on an average top 6 player.

Let me allay your concerns

We receive a veteran player with years of NHL experience, a proven track record of success.  TAM get a pick.  No one knows who they pick, whether that pick turns out to be an NHLer or a complete bust.  Who is carrying the risk?  Certainly not Vancouver.

 

Your second paragraph goes on to describe various scenarios whereby the Canucks acquire free agents.  What has this got to do with the trade for Miller?  You observations may or may not be valid, but they have no relevance to the Miller trade.

 

This trade has no relevance to JB leverage to acquire Myers.  Myers will be a free agent so there is no opportunity cost by trading away the 1st round pick

 

Your worst case scenario being that the Canucks gave up a lottery pick.  That hasn't happened and probably won't happen.  Even if TAM get a lottery pick, they are still carrying the risk and we may still end up with the better player.

 

Rental value?  Miller has 4 years remaining on his deal.  Teams pay less for rentals because they don't have the burden of term.  

I think you, like many others have over stated the value of a first round draft pick and have undervalued  a known quantity.  The average point total for a player drafted in the first round is 18pt per year.  18.  People remember the elite players but conveniently forget the kids that don't establish themselves in the NHL.  It is Tampa that are carrying all the risk.

[theo5789]

13 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

 

You did not seriously say that?  Not only do we have Bo, Boeser, and Petey which despite mass injuries had us to within weeks of the playoffs, but now adding Hughes and Miller and about to get new RDs?  Did you not watch any games last year, or have any idea what the roster looks like?

Our team was lights out impressive to start the year, but that was due to EP's hot start and a healthy lineup. We ran into a string of injuries that put us behind the 8 ball, but we rallied when Markstrom found a new level to his game. Should Markstrom continue his progression and remains consistent (and have a decent backup in Demko to give Marky some time off while still having good goaltending) plus add some health back into the lineup (with Miller being excellent center insurance) and if we sign a guy to take on some of Tanev's hard minutes and having Hughes take some of the offensive pressure off of Edler, there is absolutely no reason this team shouldn't at least make the playoffs.

[aGENT]

29 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

You said if the team regresses or doesn't improve. Thats obvious.

 

But what could cause that to be the case? (is what im asking) To me those issues are already apparent. 

 

What im getting at here, is just saying "then there bigger problems" isnt justification, its just pointing out the obvious.

 

Theres nothing wrong with liking the trade. I like the move in that were getting a great player, but there is some risk involved that cant just be ignored or brushed aside either.

 

 

 

Most trades involve some risk.

[danaimo]

11 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Most trades involve some risk.

Agreed, Most trades carry risk.  Being too afraid to make trades guarantees mediocrity. Pick your poison.

[Analyst82]

59 minutes ago, Kanukfanatic said:

You don't think Horvat would be in Tampa's top 6 forward lineup?

 

 

Please explain more:

 

 

Their top 2 centers are Stamkos and point. There is no way horvat replaces point who had 92 points. There is not enough sample size for me to decide if he will cut it on the wing. 

 

Again, nothing against horvat but he has not reached his ceiling yet and when he does, we will have a different conversation. 

[Alflives]

Just now, danaimo said:

Agreed, Most trades carry risk.  Being too afraid to make trades guarantees mediocrity. Pick your poison.

Draft choices are risk too, if you want to be a Cup team.  Look at Detroit picking Seider at 6 OA.  We want our players to dare to be great.  I think we should expect the GM to do the same.  

[Provost]

28 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

The fact that everyone "knows" that we are in desperate need for a top 4 dman is what will make teams demand a far higher price than a 1st and 3rd for even a marginal top 4 dman. 

Except you are entirely missing the entire point.

 

If we were negotiating a trade for a D during the seedy weekend, we aren’t over a barrel because there are several

available and we have the ability to say no thanks and move on to free agency.  That is entirely different than having used our biggest trade chip already and only having 2-3 UFA D who fill out needs.  

 

I have done done a lot of high level negotiating, and there is a concept called a BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement).  Essentially, you do a lot of work ahead of time to put yourself in a position where you aren’t as desperate, and know when waking away is better than signing a bad deal.  In this case, Benning has a terrible BATNA... going into next season with the same D core AND having already played his hand showing that we need to add and go for it so our pick to Tampa isn’t a disaster.

 

If he had been negotiating with a bunch of teams on the weekend, he has a much better walk away BATNA back up plan of moving on to free agency and Myers.

[Alflives]

Just now, Analyst82 said:

Their top 2 centers are Stamkos and point. There is no way horvat replaces point who had 92 points. There is not enough sample size for me to decide if he will cut it on the wing. 

 

Again, nothing against horvat but he has not reached his ceiling yet and when he does, we will have a different conversation. 

Bo would play the most minutes of any center on that team.  Call him whatever.  Bo would PK, play 5 on 5 against toughest match-ups, and second unit PP.  Likely Stamkos would play wing.  

[Gaudette Celly]

2 hours ago, Fanuck said:

He's in a really good situation coming here - going from first to worst notwithstanding of course - he could really have an impact here if he chooses to. 

From the first-round-exit team to the worst-lotto-results team.

 

 

[Gaudette Celly]

4 hours ago, DeltaSwede said:

Alright, I'll admit it, I'm being lazy now but looking through 130 pages to find what I'm looking for is a bit rich for me right now.

In essence:

JT Miller now <<<<< future Mystery Box, which has a 17% chance of something as good as a JT Miller

[appleboy]

Sutter was supposed to be a foundational player.

Guddy was going to solve our defense.

We didn't lose draft picks with LE but he was promoted as a perennial 30 goal scorer.

We have also seen some minor deals for players who were supposed to solve some of the teams issues. We got a total of 12 goals between Beagle and Rousell. 6 mil

You can't blame fans for questioning whether Miller will be worth a first round pick. If he comes in here and gets 30 points will we be happy?

Gagner was signed for two years to fix the power play. How did that go.

Was it Jimbo that gave us Pizza?

Zotto was also a real beauty.  LOL

 

So what have I missed?

 

 

 

[The Lock]

It's funny really. Most media and sources I've heard and read outside of Vancouver are actually saying it's a good trade for Vancouver. The only people who are getting upset at this are the fans who have no faith in this team it seems.

 

I might take a break from the forum though. I can only read so much hate from people who aren't even being realistic about what that 1st entails before going mental. lol

[Gaudette Celly]

1 hour ago, Provost said:

Worst case, we gave up a top lottery pick plus a sweetener for a slight upgrade in Sutter.

[Provost]

24 minutes ago, danaimo said:

Let me allay your concerns

We receive a veteran player with years of NHL experience, a proven track record of success.  TAM get a pick.  No one knows who they pick, whether that pick turns out to be an NHLer or a complete bust.  Who is carrying the risk?  Certainly not Vancouver.

 

Your second paragraph goes on to describe various scenarios whereby the Canucks acquire free agents.  What has this got to do with the trade for Miller?  You observations may or may not be valid, but they have no relevance to the Miller trade.

 

This trade has no relevance to JB leverage to acquire Myers.  Myers will be a free agent so there is no opportunity cost by trading away the 1st round pick

 

Your worst case scenario being that the Canucks gave up a lottery pick.  That hasn't happened and probably won't happen.  Even if TAM get a lottery pick, they are still carrying the risk and we may still end up with the better player.

 

Rental value?  Miller has 4 years remaining on his deal.  Teams pay less for rentals because they don't have the burden of term.  

I think you, like many others have over stated the value of a first round draft pick and have undervalued  a known quantity.  The average point total for a player drafted in the first round is 18pt per year.  18.  People remember the elite players but conveniently forget the kids that don't establish themselves in the NHL.  It is Tampa that are carrying all the risk.

The. If point you are entirely ignoring, even though you are typing it is that 1st round picks ARE overvalued.  GMs value them very highly... so you should be able to extract a lot of value for one... 

 

We didn’t and the big consensus from pundits outside both markets is that Tampa got great value for a move that they had to make.

 

You can’t just choose to take the trade in isolation and not consider the full picture and the opportunity cost of not being able to make another move because the asset has now been traded away.  If you can get player A for an asset, or a better player B for that same asset, you are suggesting that is entirely irrelevant.

 

The other thing you can’t take in isolation is the situation.  Tampa was risking not being able to sign Point, or even having him offer sheeted.  This trade removed that issue from them entirely.  You suggest Tampa is taking all the risk, and that couldn’t be further from the truth.  Tampa removed a crap ton of risk in freeing up the cap space, and return at all for that is gravy and not a risk at all. 

[Provost]

2 minutes ago, Hutton Wink said:

 

Read slower and maybe move your lips and it will help you with your comprehension.

 

... you are welcome for the free tip.  Hope it helps you going forward.

[Kanukfanatic]

10 minutes ago, Analyst82 said:

Their top 2 centers are Stamkos and point. There is no way horvat replaces point who had 92 points. There is not enough sample size for me to decide if he will cut it on the wing. 

 

Again, nothing against horvat but he has not reached his ceiling yet and when he does, we will have a different conversation. 

It is clear Horvat would be Tampa's 4th best forward and he would play in the top 6 without a doubt.

 

JT Miller will be our 4th best forward and he is a centre, so he will play wing just like Horvat would in Tampa.

 

Saying otherwise is disingenuous and just plain wrong. It makes no sense why anyone would even say it.