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strange stat about canucks

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first time poster.... i do alot of quantitative work on different sports.


one thing i have really noticed about canucks games this season is that game scores do not correspond to shooting differentials at all.


if the canucks outshoot the opponents by more than 7 shots, they are 4-8 win/loss...


if the opponent outshoots canucks by more than 7 goals, the canucks are 15-7


the 7 shots is somewhat data-mined but it doesn't make a huge difference.......... seems like many canucks games have either great or terrible goaltending from at least one of the teams.


also, if you take the cumulative season-long shot differential for the canucks the trend is really really bad. 

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8 minutes ago, coastal.view said:

quality of shots make a difference

there are stats that account for shot quality

I think @coastal.view has it right. The factor you're missing is the quality of shots. My experience tells me that sometimes when a team peppers the opposing netminder with low quality shots, all it does is get the netminder warmed up and feeling confident. Because goaltending is so heavily mental compared to other positions, I think that can be huge.

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Here is my theory:


Canucks have a good record when they score first or have a lead early on in the game. They were many games where the Canucks win as an offensive outburst of 3-4 goals in a period and open up a 2-4 goal lead very early in the game. Hence the team trailing gets desperate and throws a lot of shot on net. Canucks plays a system where they delibrately allow shots from perimeters. Hence, we get outshot but we still win.


Games we outshot opposition is exact opposite. We outshot them because we are down.

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You must remember also, as mentioned above, Quality of shots.

Any shot from any distance that is intended to go in, and not hit a post is deemed a shot.
This includes any type of shots from the opposition end, be it icing or clearing attempts.
A 200 foot shot has a miniscule percentage chance to go in.

If you analysed that data with scoring chances included, then we'd see some real info.

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Team gives up too many shots too often. And from the games I watch they’re quite often grade A chances. Marky has been playing Vezina level hockey pretty much all season. Thankfully Toffoli is a good two way guy. Imagine the little things Eriksson brings with the actual talent of Boeser. He’ll help out in all 3 zones.

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19 hours ago, 24K PureCool said:

Markstrom loves his shots. He plays way better when bombarded with shots.


Feels like one of those goalie that kind of zone out when not busy. 

This (Focus) has been his biggest area of improvement but I agree. 

Could also explain the number of times he has let in a goal on the first shot. 

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