Myers The 6million dollar man 2.0

[Provost]

Just now, Alain Vigneault said:

How can anybody actually rate Myers at 6M with a straight face?

 

If he was making 2M or under, sure.  But 6M?  Lmfao hard pass.

 

Benning brigade back at it with their hooliganism. 

That is probably pushing it... but Myers at $4.5 most teams take.  Myers at $6 million most teams pass... even teams really hard up for D improvements.

Most folks don't even believe he will be taken in expansion.

[4petesake]

10 minutes ago, Alain Vigneault said:

"But..but..the UFA market!!!!"

Say what you like about the UFA market. Here is your 2018 Canucks defence.

Alex Biega

Guillaume Brisebois

Michael Del Zotto

Alexander Edler

Erik Gudbranson

Quinn Hughes

Ben Hutton

Derrick Pouliot

Brogan Rafferty

Ashton Sautner

Luke Schenn

Troy Stecher

Christopher Tanev

Josh Teves

Here is the list of UFA signings. Barring trades, this is your option to improve the defence. You might go a different way in 2021, fair enough I might too, with hindsight. Just because some of us don’t see this as a huge mistake at the time it was made does not make us apologists. Would I like to have Myers 1-1.5 cheaper? Who wouldn’t.
 

There was no breakdown of RD or LD so I’ll leave that up to others if they’re interested.

 

 

Tyler Myers	D	29	UFA	WPG	VAN	5	$30,000,000	$6,000,000
Anton Stralman	D	33	UFA	TBL	FLA	3	$16,500,000	$5,500,000
Jake Gardiner	D	29	UFA	TOR	CAR	4	$16,200,000	$4,050,000
Ben Chiarot	D	28	UFA	WPG	MTL	3	$10,500,000	$3,500,000
Patrik Nemeth	D	27	UFA	COL	DET	2	$6,000,000	$3,000,000
Jordie Benn	D	32	UFA	MTL	VAN	2	$4,000,000	$2,000,000
Ron Hainsey	D	38	UFA	TOR	OTT	1	$3,500,000	$3,500,000
Andrej Sekera	D	33	UFA	EDM	DAL	1	$2,000,000	$2,000,000
Kevin Shattenkirk	D	30	UFA	NYR	TBL	1	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Ben Hutton	D	26	UFA	VAN	LAK	1	$1,500,000	$1,500,000
Tommy Cross	D	30	UFA	CBJ	FLA	2	$1,450,000	$725,000
Ethan Prow	D	26	UFA	PIT	FLA	2	$1,450,000	$725,000
Aaron Ness	D	29	UFA	WAS	AZ	2	$1,450,000	$725,000
Dan Renouf	D	25	UFA	CAR	COL	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
Matt Tennyson	D	29	UFA	BUF	NJD	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
Nate Prosser	D	33	UFA	MIN	PHI	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
Luke Witkowski	D	29	UFA	DET	TBL	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
Tyler Wotherspoon	D	26	UFA	STL	PHI	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
Chris Bigras	D	24	UFA	NYR	PHI	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
David Warsofsky	D	29	UFA	COL	PIT	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
Zach Bogosian	D	29	UFA	BUF	TBL	1	$1,300,000	$1,300,000
Nathan Beaulieu	D	26	UFA	WPG	WPG	1	$1,000,000	$1,000,000
Tim Heed	D	28	UFA	SJS	SJS	1	$960,000	$960,000
Oscar Fantenberg	D	27	UFA	CGY	VAN	1	$850,000	$850,000
Dalton Prout	D	29	UFA	CGY	SJS	1	$800,000	$800,000
Michael Del Zotto	D	29	UFA	STL	ANA	1	$750,000	$750,000
Andy Welinski	D	26	UFA	ANA	PHI	1	$750,000	$750,000
Joakim Ryan	D	26	UFA	SJS	LAK	1	$725,000	$725,000
Joe Morrow	D	26	UFA	WPG	NJD	1	$700,000	$700,000
Alex Petrovic	D	27	UFA	EDM	BOS	1	$700,000	$700,000
Michael Stone	D	29	UFA	CGY	CGY	1	$700,000	$700,000
Deryk Engelland	D	37	UFA	VGK	VGK	1	$700,000	$700,000
Chris Wideman	D	29	UFA	PIT	ANA	1	$700,000	$700,000
Alex Lintuniemi	D	24	UFA	LAK	CAR	1	$700,000	$700,000
Anthony Bitetto	D	29	UFA	MIN	WPG	1	$700,000	$700,000
Jaycob Megna	D	26	UFA	ANA	VGK	1	$700,000	$700,000
John Gilmour	D	26	UFA	NYR	BUF	1	$700,000	$700,000
Luke Schenn	D	29	UFA	VAN	TBL	1	$700,000	$700,000
Brett Lernout	D	24	UFA	MTL	VGK	1	$700,000	$700,000
Jake Dotchin	D	25	UFA	ANA	STL	1	$700,000	$700,000
Brandon Davidson	D	28	UFA	CHI	CGY	1	$700,000	$700,000
Derrick Pouliot	D	25	UFA	VAN	STL	1	$700,000	$700,000
Kevin Gravel	D	27	UFA	EDM	TOR	1	$700,000	$700,000
Reece Scarlett	D	26	UFA	DAL	DAL	1	$700,000	$700,000
Cameron Schilling	D	30	UFA	WPG	WPG	1	$700,000	$700,000
Dakota Mermis	D	25	UFA	AZ	NJD	1	$700,000	$700,000

Sent from my iPad

[knucklehead91]

59 minutes ago, Provost said:

High danger chances do account for those things.   On ice save % is simply not a good indicator for how well a certain D is “helping the goalie see the pucks”. Which is what you claimed.  
 

Now you are changing your argument to say that high danger chances don’t represent things because player X is not the only one on the ice.  Guess what... the same applies for on ice save %.  Except even more so... that stat is worse because it also gets mixed up with a goalie’s ability.  High danger chances remove the goalie from the equation, unlike on ice save %.

High danger chances are are a fairly steady and repeatable stat for defenceless, which means that it is how they play regardless of what partners they have and what goalie is behind them.

Myers has been above 10 high danger chances per 60 basically his entire career over 3 teams and with many different partners and goalies. 

That is just not a good defensive player.

There were a couple exceptions, and those were like 2016 when he only played 11 games so the sample isn’t big enough for that.

 

On ice save % is in fact just a lucky stat that is entirely dependent on a lot more variables than one specific player on the ice.  Go look up “worst stats in the NHL” and you will see most analytics experts say it is one of the worst.  It isn’t even a good stat for goalies, never mind removing it a step further and using it to show the effectiveness of a defence man.

 

Every argument you are making for it (seeing shots, etc) are literally why expected goals or high danger chances is actually the better stat, because it actually counts shot quality.  It counts for if it is in the paint vs. from the blue line... it accounts for if it is a rebound, etc.  It corrects for basically everything a defenceman can actually impact with his defensive play.

 

Sorry, Myers just isn’t good defensively... at least nowhere near his contract level.  When he was signed here, basically every hockey pundit told people to be ready for that.  He also isn’t good enough offensively to make up for that.  He is above average offensively, but not nearly enough to be paid as a top pairing D like he currently is.

 

He is a #4D being paid like a #2.

 

If (when) he is exposed in expansion, he probably isn’t taken because of his contract.

 

Myers 2nd on the team for DPS with 1.5, Scmhidt is first with 1.6

Myers is 2nd on D (6th on the team) for OPS with 1.0

Hughes is 1st (3rd on the team) with 2.2 OPS. Boeser is 1st with 3.3.

Hughes(1st among D) 2.8 PS to Myers(2nd among D) 2.4 for PS

oiSV% + E+/-  + oiGA+ oiGF + zone starts = players deployment and effectiveness.

 Myers has the best oiSV% From the group of players mentioned earlier, lets just compare Myers from a struggling team, to Hedman on a top team.

 

Myers                 Hedman

dZs 55.1                  38.8

oiGF 27                    36

oiGA 31                    24    

oiSV 91.8                 91.6
E+/- -0.9                 -3.8    

(E+/- = difference of xGF and xGA)

xGF 13.4                 11.1

xGA 14.3                 14.9

 

Myers has more dzone starts which is an indication he is trusted and utilized on the defensive side of the ice, which puts him at a higher potential of high danger chances, goals etc. Although he has been on the ice for 7 more goals against than Hedman (who has 4 less GP) Hedman has a lower xGF and a higher xGA giving him a worse E+/- of -3.8 yet Hedman is a +15 meaning his goalie as bailing his ass out time and time again. 
 

Myers main deployment is on the Defensive side, yet his xGF is higher than that of Hedman who is primarily deployed in the Ozone.

 

Defense is not about possession, its about defending without the puck, and as seen by a combination of stats, Myers is actually more effective than you think.

[Provost]

25 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

Myers 2nd on the team for DPS with 1.5, Scmhidt is first with 1.6

Myers is 2nd on D (6th on the team) for OPS with 1.0

Hughes is 1st (3rd on the team) with 2.2 OPS. Boeser is 1st with 3.3.

Hughes(1st among D) 2.8 PS to Myers(2nd among D) 2.4 for PS

oiSV% + E+/-  + oiGA+ oiGF + zone starts = players deployment and effectiveness.

 Myers has the best oiSV% From the group of players mentioned earlier, lets just compare Myers from a struggling team, to Hedman on a top team.

 

Myers                 Hedman

dZs 55.1                  38.8

oiGF 27                    36

oiGA 31                    24    

oiSV 91.8                 91.6
E+/- -0.9                 -3.8    

(E+/- = difference of xGF and xGA)

xGF 13.4                 11.1

xGA 14.3                 14.9

 

Myers has more dzone starts which is an indication he is trusted and utilized on the defensive side of the ice, which puts him at a higher potential of high danger chances, goals etc. Although he has been on the ice for 7 more goals against than Hedman (who has 4 less GP) Hedman has a lower xGF and a higher xGA giving him a worse E+/- of -3.8 yet Hedman is a +15 meaning his goalie as bailing his ass out time and time again. 
 

Myers main deployment is on the Defensive side, yet his xGF is higher than that of Hedman who is primarily deployed in the Ozone.

 

Defense is not about possession, its about defending without the puck, and as seen by a combination of stats, Myers is actually more effective than you think.

Myers has exactly 10 more 5v5 defensive zone starts over the entire season than Hedman.  That is just over 0.25 shifts per game.

 

More defensive starts also doesn’t equal more high danger chances.  I already showed you that isn’t true.

 

Despite only having 0.27 more shifts per game in the offensive zone.  Myers has 12.46 high danger chances against per 60 minutes.

 

Hedman has 9.33

 

Also, getting slightly more defensive starts doesn’t actually mean you are better at them.

 

Suggesting Myers is anywhere in the stratosphere as Hedman is honestly ludicrous 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Provost

[knucklehead91]

13 minutes ago, Provost said:

Myers has exactly 10 more 5v5 defensive zone starts over the entire season than Hedman.  That is just over 0.25 shifts per game.

 

More defensive starts also doesn’t equal more high danger chances.  I already showed you that isn’t true.

 

Despite only having 0.27 more shifts per game in the offensive zone.  Myers has 12.46 high danger chances against per 60 minutes.

 

Hedman has 9.33

 

Also, getting slightly more defensive starts doesn’t actually mean you are better at them.

 

Suggesting Myers is anywhere in the stratosphere as Hedman is honestly ludicrous 

 

 

 

 

Stats dont lie. If zone starts and oiSV% were such terrible stats, they wouldnt bother tracking it. It would mean and show nothing, but those stats go hand in hand with other advanced stats. Zone starts wether its 10 more or 20 more, are an indication as to where that player is seen as most effective and most trusted. Zone starts indicate where the player will be playing most of the game, on the fly increases opportunities to get into the zone they are designated for. 

 

Lets clear something up, oZs and dZs are a stat tracked where there is a face-off. 

IF a faceoff is lost in the o-zone, the defending team has possession but does not have control of the zone, they are under pressure from forecheckers. The Dzone has to move the puck out with control via passing or skating. They must avoid turnovers from pressure by forecheckers, not lose the battle in the corner or on the sidewall, find an outlet pass to move north and avoid a pinching D. 

If the faceoff is lost in the Dzone, you do not have possession, or control. Ozone controls the puck and you must defend. Hence why DZS and OZS are indeed an important thing to note when you see who is sent out for zone starts.

 

Answer me as to why on 5v5 Myers has higher xGF and lower xGA giving him a better E+/-  than Hedman who is on a power house. Myers starts more of his shifts under pressure, produces higher xGF and has lower xGA than Hedman who is primarily used in the ozone. 

[Timråfan]

2 hours ago, Devron44 said:

I 100% blame Loui Eriksson. Always will. 
 

A guy that use to be a really good hockey player both sides of the ice. Another example of JB maybe spending a million too much and a year too long. But we got nothing other then “well he’s good defensively” since day 1. That’s 100% on Loui Eriksson. 30 freaking goals, seasons with 70 points! 
 

Yeah that’s all on LE

 Nope, it’s been told that Loui is a type of player that no coach in the Canucks used him for. 
so if Green doesn’t use him as he was used before the blame is either on Green or wich coach he had here or Benning that got the wrong player to his coach. 
As Xerau often point out, you don’t try to force a cube into a round hole. 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

I have to wonder about the accuracy of the expected goals stats from hockey-reference.com (I’m assuming those are the ones being used)?

 

According to what’s been posted here:

 

Myers: 13.4 xGF, 14.3 xGA, -0.9 E+/-

 

Hedman: 11.1 xGF, 14.9 xGA, -3.8 E+/-

 

But when I look at other stats websites:

 

naturalstattrick.com (5v5):

 

Myers: 23.38 xGF, 30.38 xGA, 43.49 xGF%

Hedman: 22.29 xGF, 20.5 xGA, 52.08 xGF%

 

naturalstattrick.com (5v5 score and venue adjusted):

 

Myers: 22.98 xGF, 30.97 xGA, 42.60 xGF%

Hedman: 22.7 xGF, 20 xGA, 53.16 xGF%

 

evolving-hockey.com (5v5)

 

Myers: 23.66 xGF, 32.71 xGA, 41.97 xGF%

Hedman: 24.06 xGF, 21.19 xGA, 53.17 xGF%

 

evolving-hockey.com (5v5 score and venue adjusted):

Myers: 23.46 xGF, 33.23 xGA, 41.38 xGF%
Hedman: 24.41 xGF, 20.87 xGA, 53.91 xGF%

 

And even the raw counts (GF/GA) from NHL.com:

 

Myers: 26 On-ice EV GF, 34 On-ice EV GA

Hedman: 37 On-ice EV GF, 23 On-ice EV GA

 

(Worth noting that EV stats include empty net situations, and TBL leads the league by scoring 11 EN goals, of which I’m sure Hedman was on-ice for quite a few. Could probably also say the reverse, when it comes to Myers and his EV GA.)

 

Those xG numbers from hockey-reference.com just look so wonky, compared to everything else I’ve looked at.

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

[aGENT]

2 hours ago, Provost said:

Well you can put a bunch of qualifiers on it to try to make an argument... but he is one of the top paid D in the league, paid as a #1D as it stands right now.  Period.

RFA are paid market rate compared with UFAs... that has been true for years now.  There is no discount on 2nd and 3rd contracts.  As a matter of fact, the market has paid younger RFAs MORE due to upside vs. UFA veterans who have comparatively better numbers.  Show some evidence that isn't true to support your assertion.

There are qualifiers the other way if we want to just invent things to change what actual objective reality in terms of salaries and dollars means.

Since 2018, out of ALL free agent D signings... there have ONLY been FOUR who have been signed to higher cap hits than Myers... that includes RFA and UFA.  

Pietrangelo ($8.8 million), Krug ($6.5 million), Trouba ($8 million), Provorov ($6.75 million).

Each one of those guys is miles better than Myers.

Where are all the $11-12 million guys that have been signed in the same market conditions as Myers was? Show me the market that is giving D that kind of money.  There are only two guys over $10 million in the entire league.... only 4 guys $9 million or more.  Only 17 guys making $7 million or more.... 62 top pairing D and only 17 are making in the $7-12 million range you say they are worth.  That just doesn't add up man.  They aren't being signed to those dollars.  Period.  It isn't true.

A lot of NHL D have been signed in the last three years (hundreds?)... but not one got more than $8.8 million.  There are a bunch of guys who got signed for lower money in those years, under the same market conditions than Myers who are playing top pairing minutes.

Of those four, you were buying more prime years of young guys Provorov, Trouba... whereas with Myers you are paying extra term for years in his mid 30's when players are expected to decline, so his contract looks even worse.  Those two were RFAs and were amongst the highest paid D in recent years, entirely counter to your argument that RFAs and UFAs are "apples and oranges".  UFA players who were superior to Myers got paid less.

This coming season, Hughes who is a franchise elite #1D and not even in his prime will likely struggle to get a bridge deal with a seven at the start of it... in no universe is he going to get $11-12 million.

You can take a guy who wasn't even a free agent and was just extended in Josi.  Just over $9 million for an elite top pairing D.  Another top pairing D in Petry got extended for $6.25 million.  Anyone who argues either of these guys aren't top pairing D is out to lunch.
 

My only 'qualifier' is actually comparing UFA's to UFA's. That's literally it. 

 

Sure there's a few bargain guys like Petry here and there but in your very own post, most of the guys that are better, AKA actual first pair D, are making largely between $7-9m with a few really high end guys like Karlsson, Doughty etc making $10+.

 

IE: actual first pair, UFA, guys make more than Myers. Period. Therefore, he's not paid 'first pair' dollars. Period.

 

And you're completely wrong about RFA D pay rates. There's a reason a guy like Provorov is only $6.75m. and it's his RFA contract status.

Edited March 27, 2021 by aGENT

[Provost]

39 minutes ago, aGENT said:

My only 'qualifier' is actually comparing UFA's to UFA's. That's literally it. 

 

Sure there's a few bargain guys like Petry here and there but in your very own post, most of the guys that are better, AKA actual first pair D, are making largely between $7-9m with a few really high end guys like Karlsson, Doughty etc making $10+.

 

Sorry man.... 17 defencemen in the entire league make $7 million or more.  So I did not say most guys who are better are making over $7 million.  
 

62 top pairing D... only 17 of them making what you say top pairing D make.  That means most of them (45) are making less.  Most of them are UFA eligible age, and have had a kick at free agency or decided to sign contracts which used up UFA years.

 

You have yet to show all the guys who are signing for those dollars you say they are worth.... certainly not more than a couple of outliers.

 

From all the “actual” signings, top pairing D seem to be in a 5.25-8 million range over the last few years and the top #1 elite guys in the $8-9 million range.  That is literally every single signing so far regardless of status.

 

You can’t say that Provorov was underpaid because he was an RFA... when he was literally one of the highest paid D, UFA or otherwise in recent years.  There is no evidence to support that at all.

 

 

 

[aGENT]

12 minutes ago, Provost said:

Sorry man.... 17 defencemen in the entire league make $7 million or more.  So I did not say most guys who are better are making over $7 million.  
 

62 top pairing D... only 17 of them making what you say top pairing D make.  That means most of them (45) are making less.  Most of them are UFA eligible age, and have had a kick at free agency or decided to sign contracts which used up UFA years.

 

You have yet to show all the guys who are signing for those dollars you say they are worth.... certainly not more than a couple of outliers.

 

From all the “actual” signings, top pairing D seem to be in a 5.25-8 million range over the last few years and the top #1 elite guys in the $8-9 million range.  That is literally every single signing so far regardless of status.

 

You can’t say that Provorov was underpaid because he was an RFA... when he was literally one of the highest paid D, UFA or otherwise in recent years.  There is no evidence to support that at all.

 

 

 

Literally just about any top pair D signed in the last 5'ish years, aka current market rates. News flash, yeah that's not going to be a big number of guys. That doesn't make it less true. The current market value of UFA aged, top pair D is $7m plus. Period.

 

And yes Provorov 'only' makes $6.75 because it was an RFA deal. As a UFA, he's looking at probably closer to Pietrangelo's deal.

Edited March 27, 2021 by aGENT

[Devron]

1 hour ago, Timråfan said:

 Nope, it’s been told that Loui is a type of player that no coach in the Canucks used him for. 
so if Green doesn’t use him as he was used before the blame is either on Green or wich coach he had here or Benning that got the wrong player to his coach. 
As Xerau often point out, you don’t try to force a cube into a round hole. 

I’ve never seen someone lose their offensive touch faster the LE did. Has nothing to do with coaching. He had plenty of opportunity to show us what he’s got. Literally played in the top 6 his first 2 years here. Accomplished nothing. His time in Vancouver had just been flat out unacceptable 

[Josepho]

4 hours ago, 4petesake said:

Say what you like about the UFA market. Here is your 2018 Canucks defence.

Alex Biega

Guillaume Brisebois

Michael Del Zotto

Alexander Edler

Erik Gudbranson

Quinn Hughes

Ben Hutton

Derrick Pouliot

Brogan Rafferty

Ashton Sautner

Luke Schenn

Troy Stecher

Christopher Tanev

Josh Teves

Here is the list of UFA signings. Barring trades, this is your option to improve the defence. You might go a different way in 2021, fair enough I might too, with hindsight. Just because some of us don’t see this as a huge mistake at the time it was made does not make us apologists. Would I like to have Myers 1-1.5 cheaper? Who wouldn’t.
 

There was no breakdown of RD or LD so I’ll leave that up to others if they’re interested.

 

 

Tyler Myers	D	29	UFA	WPG	VAN	5	$30,000,000	$6,000,000
Anton Stralman	D	33	UFA	TBL	FLA	3	$16,500,000	$5,500,000
Jake Gardiner	D	29	UFA	TOR	CAR	4	$16,200,000	$4,050,000
Ben Chiarot	D	28	UFA	WPG	MTL	3	$10,500,000	$3,500,000
Patrik Nemeth	D	27	UFA	COL	DET	2	$6,000,000	$3,000,000
Jordie Benn	D	32	UFA	MTL	VAN	2	$4,000,000	$2,000,000
Ron Hainsey	D	38	UFA	TOR	OTT	1	$3,500,000	$3,500,000
Andrej Sekera	D	33	UFA	EDM	DAL	1	$2,000,000	$2,000,000
Kevin Shattenkirk	D	30	UFA	NYR	TBL	1	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Ben Hutton	D	26	UFA	VAN	LAK	1	$1,500,000	$1,500,000
Tommy Cross	D	30	UFA	CBJ	FLA	2	$1,450,000	$725,000
Ethan Prow	D	26	UFA	PIT	FLA	2	$1,450,000	$725,000
Aaron Ness	D	29	UFA	WAS	AZ	2	$1,450,000	$725,000
Dan Renouf	D	25	UFA	CAR	COL	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
Matt Tennyson	D	29	UFA	BUF	NJD	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
Nate Prosser	D	33	UFA	MIN	PHI	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
Luke Witkowski	D	29	UFA	DET	TBL	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
Tyler Wotherspoon	D	26	UFA	STL	PHI	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
Chris Bigras	D	24	UFA	NYR	PHI	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
David Warsofsky	D	29	UFA	COL	PIT	2	$1,400,000	$700,000
Zach Bogosian	D	29	UFA	BUF	TBL	1	$1,300,000	$1,300,000
Nathan Beaulieu	D	26	UFA	WPG	WPG	1	$1,000,000	$1,000,000
Tim Heed	D	28	UFA	SJS	SJS	1	$960,000	$960,000
Oscar Fantenberg	D	27	UFA	CGY	VAN	1	$850,000	$850,000
Dalton Prout	D	29	UFA	CGY	SJS	1	$800,000	$800,000
Michael Del Zotto	D	29	UFA	STL	ANA	1	$750,000	$750,000
Andy Welinski	D	26	UFA	ANA	PHI	1	$750,000	$750,000
Joakim Ryan	D	26	UFA	SJS	LAK	1	$725,000	$725,000
Joe Morrow	D	26	UFA	WPG	NJD	1	$700,000	$700,000
Alex Petrovic	D	27	UFA	EDM	BOS	1	$700,000	$700,000
Michael Stone	D	29	UFA	CGY	CGY	1	$700,000	$700,000
Deryk Engelland	D	37	UFA	VGK	VGK	1	$700,000	$700,000
Chris Wideman	D	29	UFA	PIT	ANA	1	$700,000	$700,000
Alex Lintuniemi	D	24	UFA	LAK	CAR	1	$700,000	$700,000
Anthony Bitetto	D	29	UFA	MIN	WPG	1	$700,000	$700,000
Jaycob Megna	D	26	UFA	ANA	VGK	1	$700,000	$700,000
John Gilmour	D	26	UFA	NYR	BUF	1	$700,000	$700,000
Luke Schenn	D	29	UFA	VAN	TBL	1	$700,000	$700,000
Brett Lernout	D	24	UFA	MTL	VGK	1	$700,000	$700,000
Jake Dotchin	D	25	UFA	ANA	STL	1	$700,000	$700,000
Brandon Davidson	D	28	UFA	CHI	CGY	1	$700,000	$700,000
Derrick Pouliot	D	25	UFA	VAN	STL	1	$700,000	$700,000
Kevin Gravel	D	27	UFA	EDM	TOR	1	$700,000	$700,000
Reece Scarlett	D	26	UFA	DAL	DAL	1	$700,000	$700,000
Cameron Schilling	D	30	UFA	WPG	WPG	1	$700,000	$700,000
Dakota Mermis	D	25	UFA	AZ	NJD	1	$700,000	$700,000

 

Sent from my iPad

The fact that the 2018 Canucks defence looked like that is Benning's fault. You shouldn't put yourself in a position where you absolutely have to overpay (the term is the bigger problem than the AAV here) free agents.  This Myers contract was just a selfish desperate attempt from Benning to save his job because he was too terrible at it to find any other defenceman.

 

Hell, we would've been better off keeping Biega and throwing that 5mil difference elsewhere.

 

If you've managed your assets properly (i.e. not trading away McCann/2nd for Gudbranson, not constantly giving up picks for Vey/Pouliot types, maybe accumulating assets through trading for other team's bad assets like Carolina), you can afford to make a move for a defenceman through trade, or you could've prepared for this in advance.

 

Nick Jensen was available at a reasonable price at the deadline, and signed a very cheap extension -- he's been crushing it in very hard minutes for Washington. That would've been miles better. Winnipeg let Myers walk despite losing two other RD that offseason and being a very unpopular place to play. Cheveldayoff stayed patient and later acquired, then cheaply extended Demelo. Even dating back to the expansion draft, teams like Washington/Anaheim likely would've sold Schmidt/Theodore to us, but we were focused on protecting losers like Gudbranson and Granlund.

Edited March 27, 2021 by Josepho

[Timråfan]

1 hour ago, Devron44 said:

I’ve never seen someone lose their offensive touch faster the LE did. Has nothing to do with coaching. He had plenty of opportunity to show us what he’s got. Literally played in the top 6 his first 2 years here. Accomplished nothing. His time in Vancouver had just been flat out unacceptable 

Again, fans here that saw Loui play in other teams claimed what I said. If so it is the coach that don’t understand what makes a player tick. 

[Timråfan]

13 minutes ago, Josepho said:

The fact that the 2018 Canucks defence looked like that is Benning's fault. You shouldn't put yourself in a position where you absolutely have to overpay (the term is the bigger problem than the AAV here) free agents.  This Myers contract was just a selfish desperate attempt from Benning to save his job because he was too terrible at it to find any other defenceman.

 

Hell, we would've been better off keeping Biega and throwing that 5mil difference elsewhere.

 

If you've managed your assets properly (i.e. not trading away McCann/2nd for Gudbranson, not constantly giving up picks for Vey/Pouliot types, maybe accumulating assets through trading for other team's bad assets like Carolina), you can afford to make a move for a defenceman through trade, or you could've prepared for this in advance.

 

Nick Jensen was available at a reasonable price at the deadline, and signed a very cheap extension -- he's been crushing it in very hard minutes for Washington. That would've been miles better. Winnipeg let Myers walk despite losing two other RD that offseason and being a very unpopular place to play. Cheveldayoff stayed patient and later acquired, then cheaply extended Demelo. Even dating back to the expansion draft, teams like Washington/Anaheim likely would've sold Schmidt/Theodore to us, but we were focused on protecting losers like Gudbranson and Granlund.

And take in the youngsters and let they get some experiance instead. Brisebois, Rafferty, Chatfield, Woo, Juolevi was injured, the rest could have got much more games at top level so Benning would gave known when the Real window opens in season 22/23 wich of the young ones that is worth it. 
So what if we had lost much more games. It just ment better picks at drafting. 
A win win situation Benning threw away. 

[MikeyD]

1 hour ago, Devron44 said:

I’ve never seen someone lose their offensive touch faster the LE did. Has nothing to do with coaching. He had plenty of opportunity to show us what he’s got. Literally played in the top 6 his first 2 years here. Accomplished nothing. His time in Vancouver had just been flat out unacceptable 

That's because he was playing with elite talent that played into his skills. Never has been a rush guy, never has been a great playmaker. The guy stands in front of the net and gets dirty goals. Marchand and Bergeron elevated his play just like many players who played with the Sedins had their games elevated. Problem was is that people actually bought into the Louie hype. 

[Provost]

2 hours ago, aGENT said:

Literally just about any top pair D signed in the last 5'ish years, aka current market rates. News flash, yeah that's not going to be a big number of guys. That doesn't make it less true. The current market value of UFA aged, top pair D is $7m plus. Period.

 

And yes Provorov 'only' makes $6.75 because it was an RFA deal. As a UFA, he's looking at probably closer to Pietrangelo's deal.

Do the work then and do up a list of all the UFA eligible D signed in the last 5 years to show that all the top ones are over $7 million.  You keep saying it is true and provide nothing to back it up.  Your entire points seems to be "well it hasn't really happened because there are two few players that fit my criteria to show it, but if it did happen... then that is absolutely what the players would be worth. Period."

From the list I am looking at, that just doesn't fly.  Just looking at the very top end elite Norris vote recipients, and they are in the $7-9 million range (not $11-12 million).

There are only two guys in the entire league who signed above $10 million and they have two of the top worst value contracts in the NHL according to every list (Karlsson and Doughty), they are still very good D, just not worth their cap hit.

Josi $9.059 3rd highest paid D in the league (signed right after winning the Norris)
Brent Burns $8 million (right after getting 3rd in Norris voting... and just before winning the Norris)
Carlson $8 million (regular top 5 in Norris votes, and Norris winner)

Pietrangelo $8.8 million (right off of 4th place in Norris voting)
Hedman $7.875 million (Norris winner and regular top 5 vote recipient)

The above represent the absolute ceiling of the market as they are all top 5 D in the entire league as of when they signed.  You work your way down the rest of the UFA D signings for more than Myers in the last 5 years and you drop under $7 million REALLY fast.

Ekman Larson $8 million (also listed as one of the worst contracts in the league

Vlasic $7 million (also on most of the worst contracts in the league lists)
Spurgeon $7.575 million high end top pairing guy
Seabrook $6.875 million
Mcdonagh $6.75 million
Giordano $6.75 million
Faulk $6.5 million
Fowler $6.5 million
Krug $6.5 million
Yandle $6.35 million
Ellis $6.25 million

Work your way down to #62 and I can assure you it drops well below $7 million.... it is well down into the low $5 million range, far below Myers.  Your cut off is also really arbitrary as it assume that players who are RFAs are signing away all their UFA years at a big discount which just doesn't fly.  It assumes agents and players are stupid and are undervaluing their players by signing long term deals that don't just take them to UFA status to cash in.

So in a full 6 years of UFA D signings (including Josi who is extended for next year), from what I can see only 10 guys have signed in your $7 million plus range.  That is amazing that there have been probably 100+ top pairing D in that span (it isn't the same 62 guys for 5 years straight) and so few meet your contract threshold for valuation.

Edited March 28, 2021 by Provost

[kloubek]

Myers is alright. He just isn't particularly *good* at anything other than tying up guys on the boards. He has decent defense and obviously a great reach. The things he DOES bring we don't currently have a replacement for, and we need that.

 

Thing is, we DO still have the rights to Tryamkin, who would provide most of the same benefits on the ice, better hitting and intimidation, and at maybe... a third (?) the cost.

 

As it sits though, Myers' is hardly at the top of my list of contracts I wish we could make disappear. And who knows - if we are lucky, Seattle makes it a moot point.

[oldnews]

3 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

I have to wonder about the accuracy of the expected goals stats from hockey-reference.com (I’m assuming those are the ones being used)?

 

21 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

“Tell me you don’t understand zonestarts, without telling me you don’t understand zonestarts.”  
 

OK, let’s get something straight: Myers does not start the majority of his shifts in the defensive zone.

 

At 5v5, maybe 10% of his shifts start in the defensive zone.

 

Myers’ 5v5 shifts this season:

 

Offensive zone starts: 63

Neutral zone starts: 122

Defensive zone starts: 73

On the fly starts: 460

Total: 718

 

So, percentage of shifts Myers starts in the defensive zone = 73/718 = 10.17%
 

(Pretty close to my 10% guess at the top.)

 

Zonestarts are **REALLY** not understood well on CDC.

 

 

Part of the problem in this thread is that Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick calculate zone starts differently.

 

Neither is "correct" or "wrong".

 

What you refer to as zone starts - (I'm assuming you are referencing Natural Stat trick in your original response - you haven't sourced your numbers but it's pretty clear) - they are actually the divided metric that NST uses.

You left out one of their two defensive zone calculations

 

For Natural Stat Trick, 'zone starts' refer to shift starts.

 

Natural Stat Trick:

"Def. Zone Starts - Number of shifts for the player that started with an defensive zone faceoff.

Def. Zone Faceoffs - Number of faceoffs in the defensive zone for which the player was on the ice."

 

You refer to Myers as having 73 ozone starts on the season.

However, NST also reference Myers as having 191 defensive zone faceoffs.

 

Really - they should/could clean up their language - to reflect defensive zone shift starts - as opposed to 'zone starts' which can easily be considered to mean the larger metric.

 

HockeyReference - refers to "zone starts" as the larger metric - not simply "shift starts" - but zone stoppages/starts.

 

Let's look at HockeyReference for a moment.. who do not separate the 'starts' into shift starts/ and defensive zone faceoffs.   The separation can be useful (imo to a lesser extent) - but still a metric worth separating - however the language of 'analytics' gets muddied by the fact zone starts refer to what are actually different metrics in the end.

 

I'm not going to calculate every game this season, but I'm going to work back over the games this month / March - to illustrate.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/VAN/2021_games.html

The first numbers are all situations, the last is dzone starts at 5 on 5.

 

March 24 vs Jets = 10 ozone, 11 dzone / 47.6% ozone / 7 dzone at es/5 on 5.

March 22 vs Jets = 8 ozone, 6 dzone / 57.1% / 5 dzone at es

March 20 vs Habs = 3 ozone, 7 dzone / 30% / 7 dzone at es

March 19 vs Habs = 5 ozone, 11 dzone, 31.3% / 5 dzone at es

March 17 vs Sens = 1 ozone, 12 dzone, 7.7% / 7 dzone at es

March 15 vs Sens = 11 ozone, 10 dzone, 52.4% / 4 dzone at es

March 13 vs Oilers = 8 ozone, 5 dzone, 61.5% / 2 dzone at es.

March 10 vs Habes = 2 ozone, 15 dzone, 11.8% / 10 dzone at es

March 8 vs Habs = 4 ozone, 6 dzone, 40% / 4 dzone at es

March 6 vs Leafs = 7 ozone, 5 dzone, 58.3% / 4 dzone at es

March 4 vs Leafs = 0 ozone, 17 dzone, 0% / 9 dzone at es

March 2 vs Jets = 5 ozone, 14 dzone, 26.3% / 11 dzone starts at es

March 1 vs Jets = 5 ozone, 11 dzone, 31.3% / 6 dzone at es.

 

13 games = 81 defensive zone 'starts' at even strength / 5 on 5.   Obviously not limited to shift starts - but faceoffs overall - zone 'starts' after stoppages.

Which is more than 6 defensive zone faceoffs/'starts' per game.

130 all situations  = 10 defensive zone faceoffs after stoppages per game.  Quite significant actually, when a player might get 20 to 25 shifts a night.

 

So - there is not a 'right' or 'wrong' way of referring to zone starts - but there are different metrics - and it makes a significant difference which you are referring to

 

Using Natural Stat Tricks numbers.

159 ozone faceoffs where he was on the ice 5 on 5.

188 neutral zone

191 dzone.

538 starts after stoppages - in descending order from dzone, to neutral to ozone. 

 

On the fly shift starts = 460.  Obviously all 460 are shift starts

 

On the fly starts, however - can't be broken down more meaningfully into the offensive/defensive territorial implication of those shifts.  What the zone 'starts'/faceoffs actually give you - are the general intention of a coaches' deployment - what they do when they are able to 'control' deployment (ie it's entirely possible that a very similar 'deployment' intention emerges if the 'on the fly' starts were able to be broken down further).   And where 'possession'/shot differential metrics are concerned, defensive zone faceoffs - particularly when the gap between ozone and dzone increases, is conversely a more significant / valuable metric than you are suggesting - and impacts metrics like corsi to an 'expected' degree.  Not quite as limited in weight as suggested when relying on the NST shift start metric - and certainly not meaningless, whatsoever (not your claim, but others attempt to take it that far, and that is a negative value claim).   The reality is that a small percentage of the larger faceoffs/'starts' would follow an icing - ie a compulsory defensive zone start - one that the coach does not have a choice - where they are not making a deployment/matchup etc decision - otherwise both metrics allow a person to glean both a coaches' general intention, and the degree to which their 'expected' 'possession'/shot differential metrics would be effected (the more limited 'shift starts' arguably underplays the impact by a factor of about 3X).

 

Myers - whose deployment is relatively close to neutral - marginally weighted to the dzone - is arguably not as 'effected' as players like Beagle and Motte, etc would be.

Offensive zone faceoffs - perhaps that should be the OP's 'descriptor' as opposed to 'zone starts' to avoid the confusion - or folks like yourself who use NST might specify that you mean shift starts - the "starts" part is ambiguous - as opposed to 'zone starts' = easy to see how it would generate confusion/disagreement.

 

Myers ozone faceoffs is 45.43% via NST - whereas more strictly shutdown players like Beagle and Motte are at 25.31% and 27.59% respectively.  Myers - who gets 44.99% offensive zone 'starts' (by the Hockey Reference metric) - has, imo, a relatively 'expected' corsi of 45.6%  (not 'bad' outcomes) - fairly 'neutral' if 'adjusted'.

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2021 by oldnews

[Devron]

1 hour ago, MikeyD said:

That's because he was playing with elite talent that played into his skills. Never has been a rush guy, never has been a great playmaker. The guy stands in front of the net and gets dirty goals. Marchand and Bergeron elevated his play just like many players who played with the Sedins had their games elevated. Problem was is that people actually bought into the Louie hype. 

I was one of those guys hyped about him haha. I actually really liked him on Dallas the most. Problem is it didn’t even work with the Sedins even though it was a known fit internationally. Sedins were still 50-60 point guys and LE could hardly muster 25 points. Seemed to shy from dirty areas since he became a Canuck. I don’t believe the coaching was an issue. If anything he had more leash then what was fair to other players based on his contract. He simply immediately declined, lost ALL confidence, packed it in or all of the above 

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, Provost said:

Do the work then and do up a list of all the UFA eligible D signed in the last 5 years to show that all the top ones are over $7 million.  You keep saying it is true and provide nothing to back it up.  Your entire points seems to be "well it hasn't really happened because there are two few players that fit my criteria to show it, but if it did happen... then that is absolutely what the players would be worth. Period."

From the list I am looking at, that just doesn't fly.  Just looking at the very top end elite Norris vote recipients, and they are in the $7-9 million range (not $11-12 million).

There are only two guys in the entire league who signed above $10 million and they have two of the top worst value contracts in the NHL according to every list (Karlsson and Doughty), they are still very good D, just not worth their cap hit.

Josi $9.059 3rd highest paid D in the league (signed right after winning the Norris)
Brent Burns $8 million (right after getting 3rd in Norris voting... and just before winning the Norris)
Carlson $8 million (regular top 5 in Norris votes, and Norris winner)

Pietrangelo $8.8 million (right off of 4th place in Norris voting)
Hedman $7.875 million (Norris winner and regular top 5 vote recipient)

The above represent the absolute ceiling of the market as they are all top 5 D in the entire league as of when they signed.  You work your way down the rest of the UFA D signings for more than Myers in the last 5 years and you drop under $7 million REALLY fast.

Ekman Larson $8 million (also listed as one of the worst contracts in the league

Vlasic $7 million (also on most of the worst contracts in the league lists)
Spurgeon $7.575 million high end top pairing guy
Seabrook $6.875 million
Mcdonagh $6.75 million
Giordano $6.75 million
Faulk $6.5 million
Fowler $6.5 million
Krug $6.5 million
Yandle $6.35 million
Ellis $6.25 million

Work your way down to #62 and I can assure you it drops well below $7 million.... it is well down into the low $5 million range, far below Myers.  Your cut off is also really arbitrary as it assume that players who are RFAs are signing away all their UFA years at a big discount which just doesn't fly.  It assumes agents and players are stupid and are undervaluing their players by signing long term deals that don't just take them to UFA status to cash in.

So in a full 6 years of UFA D signings (including Josi who is extended for next year), from what I can see only 10 guys have signed in your $7 million plus range.  That is amazing that there have been probably 100+ top pairing D in that span (it isn't the same 62 guys for 5 years straight) and so few meet your contract threshold for valuation.

You've literally already posted a bunch of them. They're all pretty much North of $7m.

 

It's really not that complicated.

Edited March 28, 2021 by aGENT