[Offer Sheet] Hurricanes offer sheet Jesperi Kotkaniemi

[knucklehead91]

20 hours ago, Alflives said:

The Canes basically stole the Hab’s best defensive (and hardest to play against) young centre.  The 6 million is pretty much a signing bonus for the coming longer term contract.  I see JK extending with the Canes at 4x4.  So add in the six and that’s 22 mil over five years.  

 

Best defensive young centre???? Uhhhh… dude he wasnt used defensively at all.

63% oZS in all situations. He was given a ton of offensive chances and produced 5 goals. 106 mins of PP time this past season and how many PP points? 0G 4apples…. 4 bloody points with 106 mins on the PP.

[Losing With Pride]

1 hour ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

That makes a lot more sense.

 

Even in a complete “tear down” rebuild, you don’t move a 23 year old with #1D potential (if Chychrun isn’t already playing at that level or very close to it) who’s signed to a very good deal for another 4 years.

 

Draft picks are nice and all, but Chychrun is already the type of player that you hope to secure with a high first round pick. And it often takes a couple shots before you actually hit the target on that kind of player (certainly our own experience in the same draft year can attest to this).

Anyone know why he fell so far in the 2016 draft?

 

Hindsight is 20/20 but I'm sure we would all be happier if we had Chychrun instead of OJ

[BigTramFan]

2 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

Why not reach for the stars? Pettersson>Kotkaniemi in every single way shape and form.
Why offersheet a 3mil player for 6M+ 

When you could offersheet a 8-9M player for 8M? Its a 2mil difference in cap for a 5mil+ Difference in quality. 

You’d think if you had 6mil in cap space to offersheet a guy, you’d make a little extra room and go for the better player if you are actually interested in offersheeting a player and its not out of revenge. At least if I was a GM and in that position I would look at Pettersson and see if there are other options before settling on Kotkaniemi. 
The tweets and all that crap that followed the offersheet clearly show they are trolling MTL and the Bergervan. Why else would they toss in the laughable $20 signing bonus and make a stink of it online and refer to the MTL offersheet on Aho? It was a troll job, Montreal started a war, Carolina poured gas on an open fire and its going to come back Carolina’s way again in the future if the Bergervan is in the league, be it in Montreal or elsewhere. He’s going to try and give Carolina another F U.

I think it comes down to whether you think you will be successful in making the offer sheet. What is the point in even offering if you haven't got a good chance of being successful?

 

KK was offered $6.1m when he is probably worth more like $2.5 on a bridge deal. And Montreal had less than $6.1m in cap space. You have a good chance of success.

 

If EP was offered $8m when he is probably worth around $8m and VAN has $16m+ in cap space. There's no way you're succeeding. VAN will match and you just pissed them off now.

 

Reaching for the stars would be offering EP $10.5m on a 1 year contract. At least VAN would stop and think about the 4 1st round picks before matching it.

[knucklehead91]

1 minute ago, BigTramFan said:

I think it comes down to whether you think you will be successful in making the offer sheet. What is the point in even offering if you haven't got a good chance of being successful?

 

KK was offered $6.1m when he is probably worth more like $2.5 on a bridge deal. And Montreal had less than $6.1m in cap space. You have a good chance of success.

 

If EP was offered $8m when he is probably worth around $8m and VAN has $16m+ in cap space. There's no way you're succeeding. VAN will match and you just pissed them off now.

 

Reaching for the stars would be offering EP $10.5m on a 1 year contract. At least VAN would stop and think about the 4 1st round picks before matching it.

Right, but thats kinda the point im trying to make. Why not make a little bit more room and reach for the stars…

Why pay 6mil for a 2.5mil player… when you could spend say 10mil and get a player that is actually at that value of the cap hit. 
Carolina is a team that is a contender imho. Would you not agree? If so, who gives Carolina a better chance at a cup. JK or EP? Make the room and go all in. Dont do some slap d*ck operation and overpay some 2.5mil player 6mil to come and “help you win” for an extra 3-4mil you could have Pettersson instead of “5 goal never been on pace to score 15 Kotkaniemi”

 

Move Trochek out, dont spend 6.1mil on JK and offersheet a legit talent like EP for 9-10mil and go all in. 

[BigTramFan]

5 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

Right, but thats kinda the point im trying to make. Why not make a little bit more room and reach for the stars…

Why pay 6mil for a 2.5mil player… when you could spend say 10mil and get a player that is actually at that value of the cap hit. 
Carolina is a team that is a contender imho. Would you not agree? If so, who gives Carolina a better chance at a cup. JK or EP? Make the room and go all in. Dont do some slap d*ck operation and overpay some 2.5mil player 6mil to come and “help you win” for an extra 3-4mil you could have Pettersson instead of “5 goal never been on pace to score 15 Kotkaniemi”

 

Move Trochek out, dont spend 6.1mil on JK and offersheet a legit talent like EP for 9-10mil and go all in. 

Because VAN still match that offer when it is from CAR. The four 1st's (if CAR offered EP over $10.3m) compensation to VAN would be late round picks and not worth it. So although VAN would think about it for a sec, then they would match.

Edited September 7, 2021 by BigTramFan

[c00kies]

1 hour ago, Losing With Pride said:

Anyone know why he fell so far in the 2016 draft?

 

Hindsight is 20/20 but I'm sure we would all be happier if we had Chychrun instead of OJ

I forget why, but I remember "come undone for Chychrun" was a thing earlier in that season. I know it's hindsight, but he would have been a gem 

[knucklehead91]

15 minutes ago, BigTramFan said:

Because VAN still match that offer when it is from CAR. The four 1st's (if CAR offered EP over $10.3m) compensation to VAN would be late round picks and not worth it. So although VAN would think about it for a sec, then they would match.

Yea fair enough.

[knucklehead91]

42 minutes ago, BigTramFan said:

Because VAN still match that offer when it is from CAR. The four 1st's (if CAR offered EP over $10.3m) compensation to VAN would be late round picks and not worth it. So although VAN would think about it for a sec, then they would match.

I guess what I am trying to get at with using Pettersson as an example is, why not offersheet a guy who is close to the dollar value you are handing out. Like im sure there is an option this year or next year where a player will be eligible for an offersheet of say 5mil who is a 4-5 mil player. Like why not put your cap to good use and utilize the value of a player versus the cap hit. A 2.5 mil player being paid 3.6mil over and above is like a wasted roster spot, you could get 2 legit 3 mil players instead of 1 for the price of 2. 

[Diamonds]

2 hours ago, Losing With Pride said:

Anyone know why he fell so far in the 2016 draft?

 

Hindsight is 20/20 but I'm sure we would all be happier if we had Chychrun instead of OJ

If I remember correctly, after he got snubbed by Team Canada for the World Juniors people started to question if the reason he was good in junior was because he physically developed early and that his upside might not be that high.

 

Also, he got overshadowed by his two competitors for top defenseman in the draft. Sergachev was named most outstanding defenseman in the OHL and Juolevi dominated the World Juniors where he was named to the WJC All-Star Team.

[JM_]

4 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

Why not reach for the stars? Pettersson>Kotkaniemi in every single way shape and form.
Why offersheet a 3mil player for 6M+ 

When you could offersheet a 8-9M player for 8M? Its a 2mil difference in cap for a 5mil+ Difference in quality. 

You’d think if you had 6mil in cap space to offersheet a guy, you’d make a little extra room and go for the better player if you are actually interested in offersheeting a player and its not out of revenge. At least if I was a GM and in that position I would look at Pettersson and see if there are other options before settling on Kotkaniemi. 
The tweets and all that crap that followed the offersheet clearly show they are trolling MTL and the Bergervan. Why else would they toss in the laughable $20 signing bonus and make a stink of it online and refer to the MTL offersheet on Aho? It was a troll job, Montreal started a war, Carolina poured gas on an open fire and its going to come back Carolina’s way again in the future if the Bergervan is in the league, be it in Montreal or elsewhere. He’s going to try and give Carolina another F U.

you're paying for development time too. JK's 1st 3 years all come at MTLs time and expense. So thats worth something. There's also a really good book on the kid to make a decision on as well, so thats also worth something. 

 

1st round picks are nice, but its not the same thing as evaluating a potential top 6 prospect. The chances of JK being successful in Carolina are much higher than an unknown late 1st rounder. 

[Quint]

There is a reason this is the first successful offer sheet since 2007. The way you make it work is if you overpay for a player who is on a team in cap trouble. If you make a slight overpayment you are not going to succeed because the other team will match. Then all you have accomplished is making an enemy intent on serving you an icy cold dish of revenge. Just ask Montreal!!

[CanucksJay]

6 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

Because VAN still match that offer when it is from CAR. The four 1st's (if CAR offered EP over $10.3m) compensation to VAN would be late round picks and not worth it. So although VAN would think about it for a sec, then they would match.

I kind of like what Petterson said about wanting to be on a perrenial contender. 

 

That means he won't sign an offersheet from a crappy team that offers him lots of money and the good teams don't have the capspace... 

 

Are there any playoff teams with capspace to sign Petterson? 

 

I feel like we are the best trending team that has the cap space

[BigTramFan]

17 minutes ago, CanucksJay said:

I kind of like what Petterson said about wanting to be on a perrenial contender. 

 

That means he won't sign an offersheet from a crappy team that offers him lots of money and the good teams don't have the capspace... 

 

Are there any playoff teams with capspace to sign Petterson? 

 

I feel like we are the best trending team that has the cap space

Here's why I don't think EP will get taken away from VAN via an offer sheet:

 

Firstly, I think JB would match any offer that is below $10.276m. The compensation picks and the AAV are not worth VAN losing EP for.

 

However if a team offers above $10.276m then it is four 1st round picks compensation.

 

If the offer came from a contender, then JB matches because losing EP is not worth 4 late round picks.

 

If the offer comes from a bottom-feeder team, then presumably EP would not accept the offer in the first place (he wants to contend).

 

That just leaves a few teams that maybe could become contenders by adding EP and have enough cap space to offer $10.3m+. As far as I can see, those teams are the Wild, Predators, Kraken (with Gourde on LTIR). The Wild are obviously focused on resigning Kaprizov with their remaining cap space. I can't see EP taking a risk with Seattle, as they could be quite good or utterly terrible (too risky). The Preds are a bit of a dark horse. Hopefully EP sees them as a declining team now, but playing with Forsberg and Ekholm might interest him as a Swede.

 

All of the above assumptions don't include a contender moving out some big contracts to make space for EP and then offer sheet him, but that's a risky move for a contender as an offer sheet usually isn't successful.

[knucklehead91]

1 hour ago, BigTramFan said:

Here's why I don't think EP will get taken away from VAN via an offer sheet:

 

Firstly, I think JB would match any offer that is below $10.276m. The compensation picks and the AAV are not worth VAN losing EP for.

 

However if a team offers above $10.276m then it is four 1st round picks compensation.

 

If the offer came from a contender, then JB matches because losing EP is not worth 4 late round picks.

 

If the offer comes from a bottom-feeder team, then presumably EP would not accept the offer in the first place (he wants to contend).

 

That just leaves a few teams that maybe could become contenders by adding EP and have enough cap space to offer $10.3m+. As far as I can see, those teams are the Wild, Predators, Kraken (with Gourde on LTIR). The Wild are obviously focused on resigning Kaprizov with their remaining cap space. I can't see EP taking a risk with Seattle, as they could be quite good or utterly terrible (too risky). The Preds are a bit of a dark horse. Hopefully EP sees them as a declining team now, but playing with Forsberg and Ekholm might interest him as a Swede.

 

All of the above assumptions don't include a contender moving out some big contracts to make space for EP and then offer sheet him, but that's a risky move for a contender as an offer sheet usually isn't successful.

Well said.

[JeremyCuddles]

14 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

Why not reach for the stars? Pettersson>Kotkaniemi in every single way shape and form.
Why offersheet a 3mil player for 6M+ 

When you could offersheet a 8-9M player for 8M? Its a 2mil difference in cap for a 5mil+ Difference in quality. 

You’d think if you had 6mil in cap space to offersheet a guy, you’d make a little extra room and go for the better player if you are actually interested in offersheeting a player and its not out of revenge. At least if I was a GM and in that position I would look at Pettersson and see if there are other options before settling on Kotkaniemi. 
The tweets and all that crap that followed the offersheet clearly show they are trolling MTL and the Bergervan. Why else would they toss in the laughable $20 signing bonus and make a stink of it online and refer to the MTL offersheet on Aho? It was a troll job, Montreal started a war, Carolina poured gas on an open fire and its going to come back Carolina’s way again in the future if the Bergervan is in the league, be it in Montreal or elsewhere. He’s going to try and give Carolina another F U.

Cause we'd easily match a 8mil offersheet. If you're gonna burn a bridge with a team at least do so in a way that actually gets you the player you want. Lol. That's what they did to Montreal, it was a overpayment cause it had to be. An overpayment on Petey is 10-11mil. It actually puts us in a spot where we need to decide if it's worth it to match. But they couldn't afford to overpay Petey that much, hence why they overpaid Kotkaniemi.

[CanucksJay]

11 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

Here's why I don't think EP will get taken away from VAN via an offer sheet:

 

Firstly, I think JB would match any offer that is below $10.276m. The compensation picks and the AAV are not worth VAN losing EP for.

 

However if a team offers above $10.276m then it is four 1st round picks compensation.

 

If the offer came from a contender, then JB matches because losing EP is not worth 4 late round picks.

 

If the offer comes from a bottom-feeder team, then presumably EP would not accept the offer in the first place (he wants to contend).

 

That just leaves a few teams that maybe could become contenders by adding EP and have enough cap space to offer $10.3m+. As far as I can see, those teams are the Wild, Predators, Kraken (with Gourde on LTIR). The Wild are obviously focused on resigning Kaprizov with their remaining cap space. I can't see EP taking a risk with Seattle, as they could be quite good or utterly terrible (too risky). The Preds are a bit of a dark horse. Hopefully EP sees them as a declining team now, but playing with Forsberg and Ekholm might interest him as a Swede.

 

All of the above assumptions don't include a contender moving out some big contracts to make space for EP and then offer sheet him, but that's a risky move for a contender as an offer sheet usually isn't successful.

That's exactly it. Great points. 

I don't see a contender or up and coming team moving bodies to create capspace for offersheets. If they are trending up, why rock the boat for an uncertainty where Van matches and now they have a gaping 10m+ hole in bodies they traded? 

And Petterson won't sign with a bottom feeder... 

Not sure why contract is taking so long then. 

Essentially Hughes and Petterson need to figure out how to divy up the pie. 

It should be easier with the same agent. 

My guess is, they want to hit UFA as soon as possible if it's a fair deal or want a premium if they don't hit UFA on their next contract or want a premium if they sign a long term deal. 

[knucklehead91]

7 hours ago, N7Nucks said:

Cause we'd easily match a 8mil offersheet. If you're gonna burn a bridge with a team at least do so in a way that actually gets you the player you want. Lol. That's what they did to Montreal, it was a overpayment cause it had to be. An overpayment on Petey is 10-11mil. It actually puts us in a spot where we need to decide if it's worth it to match. But they couldn't afford to overpay Petey that much, hence why they overpaid Kotkaniemi.

What I was trying to imply was, why not offersheet a guy worth the contract you are handing out. I was using Petey as an example because he is vulnerable for an offersheet and if Carolina made a little room, they could put us in a very tough spot to match. Of course we would end up doing whatever it takes to match the offersheet, but it will screw us in cap room and there will be casualties. Why over pay? Instead of paying a 2.5mil player 6.1mil to try and help you win (especially when Carolina’s window to win is open) why not pay 6mil or 5mil or 8mil for a 6, 5 or 8mil player.

They could have 1 really good player or 2 decent players for 6.1mil instead of 1 alright player for 6.1m and a $20 signing bonus lol.

[Bure_Pavel]

Canes bent Montreal over the barrel on this one, A former third overall pick who just turned 21 for a later first and a third is great value. Jesperi looked really good in his 18 year old rookie year, if he gets things back on track Montreal will be kicking themselves for not matching but didnt really have a choice due to cap.

[JeremyCuddles]

59 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

What I was trying to imply was, why not offersheet a guy worth the contract you are handing out. I was using Petey as an example because he is vulnerable for an offersheet and if Carolina made a little room, they could put us in a very tough spot to match. Of course we would end up doing whatever it takes to match the offersheet, but it will screw us in cap room and there will be casualties. Why over pay? Instead of paying a 2.5mil player 6.1mil to try and help you win (especially when Carolina’s window to win is open) why not pay 6mil or 5mil or 8mil for a 6, 5 or 8mil player.

They could have 1 really good player or 2 decent players for 6.1mil instead of 1 alright player for 6.1m and a $20 signing bonus lol.

Kotkaniemi is 21 and has massive upside, they likely believe in his potential. People act like he's a 28 year old 3rd liner. Besides, another part of the contract that is important to note is it's an overpayment but only for one year. You think Petey is accepting a 1 year deal even at an overpayment? Probably not. Would anyone offersheet him at 10+mil for a 1 year deal? Again probably not cause that's 4 first round picks you're gambling.

[Viper007]

1 hour ago, knucklehead91 said:

What I was trying to imply was, why not offersheet a guy worth the contract you are handing out. I was using Petey as an example because he is vulnerable for an offersheet and if Carolina made a little room, they could put us in a very tough spot to match. Of course we would end up doing whatever it takes to match the offersheet, but it will screw us in cap room and there will be casualties. Why over pay? Instead of paying a 2.5mil player 6.1mil to try and help you win (especially when Carolina’s window to win is open) why not pay 6mil or 5mil or 8mil for a 6, 5 or 8mil player.

They could have 1 really good player or 2 decent players for 6.1mil instead of 1 alright player for 6.1m and a $20 signing bonus lol.

I understand what you're trying to say.  But the problem is if a player is "closer" to earning that 6.1 Mill, the team probably has already planned for this cap hit, therefore the offer sheet being matched fairly easily.  Carolina did the only thing possible to get KK away from Montreal.  They had to overpay for the 1 year to get his rights, in a way that Montreal had trouble deciding whether to keep him or not.  If they kept him, they 1) screw their internal salary structure. 2) most likely have to trade somebody away to make cap space.  In the end I think Montreal did the right thing, but they'll be worse in the future for it.