[Offer Sheet] Hurricanes offer sheet Jesperi Kotkaniemi

[J-P]

4 hours ago, Viper007 said:

I understand what you're trying to say.  But the problem is if a player is "closer" to earning that 6.1 Mill, the team probably has already planned for this cap hit, therefore the offer sheet being matched fairly easily.  Carolina did the only thing possible to get KK away from Montreal.  They had to overpay for the 1 year to get his rights, in a way that Montreal had trouble deciding whether to keep him or not.  If they kept him, they 1) screw their internal salary structure. 2) most likely have to trade somebody away to make cap space.  In the end I think Montreal did the right thing, but they'll be worse in the future for it.

Totally agree, and also the value of this transaction lies in the contract extension. If MTL could have extended KK for 2-3 mil I think they would have found a way to match as that's a win in the long term.

 

Feels like KK is a much better match with CAR though and that there's an agreement in place for how the extension will look that KK was not willing to consider with MTL. Interesting though if KK gets +50 points playing with Aho, I suppose there's not a set amount for the extension but rather thresholds based on performance.

[hammertime]

21 hours ago, CanucksJay said:

I kind of like what Petterson said about wanting to be on a perrenial contender. 

 

That means he won't sign an offersheet from a crappy team that offers him lots of money and the good teams don't have the capspace... 

 

Are there any playoff teams with capspace to sign Petterson? 

 

I feel like we are the best trending team that has the cap space

Things are looking up in Detroit. I doubt Stevie would do it but theoretically he could offer more than we could pay. And he did just build that other team that is pretty good.

[RWMc1]

8 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

What I was trying to imply was, why not offersheet a guy worth the contract you are handing out. I was using Petey as an example because he is vulnerable for an offersheet and if Carolina made a little room, they could put us in a very tough spot to match. Of course we would end up doing whatever it takes to match the offersheet, but it will screw us in cap room and there will be casualties. Why over pay? Instead of paying a 2.5mil player 6.1mil to try and help you win (especially when Carolina’s window to win is open) why not pay 6mil or 5mil or 8mil for a 6, 5 or 8mil player.

They could have 1 really good player or 2 decent players for 6.1mil instead of 1 alright player for 6.1m and a $20 signing bonus lol.

Carolina tried to trade for Kockamamie before the offersheet indicating that they saw something in him that they liked. Maybe they believe that he will elevate above "alright" in the right circumstance.

 

I wonder what they offered Montreal in their trade offer?

[qwijibo]

1 minute ago, RWMc1 said:

Carolina tried to trade for Kockamamie before the offersheet indicating that they saw something in him that they liked. Maybe they believe that he will elevate above "alright" in the right circumstance.

 

I wonder what they offered Montreal in their trade offer?

According to Bergevin the offersheet compensation was better than what was offered in trade 

[RWMc1]

1 minute ago, qwijibo said:

According to Bergevin the offersheet compensation was better than what was offered in trade 

I wonder if the terms of the trade offer will ever come out. I kind of hope so just to compare the two.

[knucklehead91]

On 9/8/2021 at 9:31 AM, N7Nucks said:

Kotkaniemi is 21 and has massive upside, they likely believe in his potential. People act like he's a 28 year old 3rd liner. Besides, another part of the contract that is important to note is it's an overpayment but only for one year. You think Petey is accepting a 1 year deal even at an overpayment? Probably not. Would anyone offersheet him at 10+mil for a 1 year deal? Again probably not cause that's 4 first round picks you're gambling.

Personally I do not see massive upside to Kotkaniemi. I see a guy whos stuck/lost between 2nd line potential and 3rd line reality and unfortunately he is not a 3rd line player. He should be more of a top 6. But I do not see it. He has been given more opportunity than Virtanen was ever given and Kotkaniemi just isnt  producing. Granted he IS only 21 and there is time for him to turn it around. but I see some concerns with him. I’ll do a little breakdown of him later tonight when Im off work and just give you my perspective.

 

Also, Petey potentially accepting a 1 year deal overpayment? 100% possible and not for the money. Carolina is a contender and has a good young core and has a chance to win for a few years, the exact type of environment Pettersson said he wants to be part of. A winning team and a team that always has a chance.
Do I think he see’s Vancouver as a team that fits that mold? Yes. 
Vancouver is an up and coming team, young and has a pretty lengthy window to win considering how young our core is and how many stabs we can take at winning a cup from here on out with Petey, Hughes, Demko, Horvat, Boeser, Hoglander, Garland, Rathbone, Juolevi and Podzkolzin making up the core. We have a solid young team that has a few learning lessons ahead and need a bit more experience to really take over the league. But we are not far off at all imho. 
 

Also, if you were a contending team and could afford to offersheet Pettersson at 10.5mil for 1 year, would you pass up that opportunity to solidify yourself as a clear cut cup contender? you wouldnt go for it? Especially with a relatively young core as a contending team, you’d have his RFA rights and could re-sign him for slightly less and have another shot at it for another 2-3 years possibly and those 4 1sts would be borderline 2nd round picks if you are finishing in the top year in and year out. Not to mention IF it goes to complete sh*t in that 1 year, guess what Pettersson isnt locked up long term and can possibly get moved out of there. However I dont think that Pettersson is that type of person to pull that kinda crap.

 

Like I said, I was using Pettersson as an example of maybe paying closer to the value of the played rather than overpayement. 
2.5mil player for 6.1 on a contender instead of 2 3mil players or 1 6mil player. Coulda gone the free agency route and grabbed Saad for 4.5m

[Bure_Pavel]

3 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

Personally I do not see massive upside to Kotkaniemi. I see a guy whos stuck/lost between 2nd line potential and 3rd line reality and unfortunately he is not a 3rd line player. He should be more of a top 6. But I do not see it. He has been given more opportunity than Virtanen was ever given and Kotkaniemi just isnt  producing. Granted he IS only 21 and there is time for him to turn it around. but I see some concerns with him. I’ll do a little breakdown of him later tonight when Im off work and just give you my perspective.

 

Also, Petey potentially accepting a 1 year deal overpayment? 100% possible and not for the money. Carolina is a contender and has a good young core and has a chance to win for a few years, the exact type of environment Pettersson said he wants to be part of. A winning team and a team that always has a chance.
Do I think he see’s Vancouver as a team that fits that mold? Yes. 
Vancouver is an up and coming team, young and has a pretty lengthy window to win considering how young our core is and how many stabs we can take at winning a cup from here on out with Petey, Hughes, Demko, Horvat, Boeser, Hoglander, Garland, Rathbone, Juolevi and Podzkolzin making up the core. We have a solid young team that has a few learning lessons ahead and need a bit more experience to really take over the league. But we are not far off at all imho. 
 

Also, if you were a contending team and could afford to offersheet Pettersson at 10.5mil for 1 year, would you pass up that opportunity to solidify yourself as a clear cut cup contender? you wouldnt go for it? Especially with a relatively young core as a contending team, you’d have his RFA rights and could re-sign him for slightly less and have another shot at it for another 2-3 years possibly and those 4 1sts would be borderline 2nd round picks if you are finishing in the top year in and year out. Not to mention IF it goes to complete sh*t in that 1 year, guess what Pettersson isnt locked up long term and can possibly get moved out of there. However I dont think that Pettersson is that type of person to pull that kinda crap.

 

Like I said, I was using Pettersson as an example of maybe paying closer to the value of the played rather than overpayement. 
2.5mil player for 6.1 on a contender instead of 2 3mil players or 1 6mil player. Coulda gone the free agency route and grabbed Saad for 4.5m

Definitely has great upside, just turned 21 and had 8 playoff points in 19 games last season. 4 goals in 10 games in the playoffs before as well. Montreal mismanaged Kotkaniemi and he will flourish in Carolina, his floor is a second line center with good size.  

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Definitely has great upside, just turned 21 and had 8 playoff points in 19 games last season. 4 goals in 10 games in the playoffs before as well. Montreal mismanaged Kotkaniemi and he will flourish in Carolina, his floor is a second line center with good size.  

yup.  The Canes pretty much stole a third overall pick.  

During the draft would pick 25 + 55 get the 3rd overall?  Not even close, right?  Complete steal by the Canes.  

[qwijibo]

2 hours ago, Alflives said:

yup.  The Canes pretty much stole a third overall pick.  

During the draft would pick 25 + 55 get the 3rd overall?  Not even close, right?  Complete steal by the Canes.  

Lol. I’m pretty sure you were calling him a bustaroo when he was a Hab. Now that he’s a hurricane you apparently think he’s an all star and captain material.
 

He’s a good young player with upside. But he’s struggled the last 2 years. He doesn’t have the value of a 3rd overall pick anymore. Just like Juolevi doesn’t have the value of a 5th overall.  He may very well thrive in Carolina. I hope he does. But he’s not remotely worth $6.1m and Bergevin did the right thing walking away. 

Edited September 9, 2021 by qwijibo

[knucklehead91]

27 minutes ago, Alflives said:

yup.  The Canes pretty much stole a third overall pick.  

During the draft would pick 25 + 55 get the 3rd overall?  Not even close, right?  Complete steal by the Canes.  

 Considering Kotkaniemi was generally ranked in the teens for the most part and he only jumped into the top 5 due to a WJC Performance, i’d say he was drafted at 3rd overall based on a single performance rather than a particular skill set/package.

https://www.tsn.ca/kc-1.1115400
https://thehockeywriters.com/2018-nhl-draft-final-consensus-rankings/

 

I wouldnt call him a complete steal right now. Maybe in a couple years if he can turn into this “massive upsided” player. But right now his upside is not looking like a 1st line player. Nor a strong 2nd line player.

1) he is weak on faceoffs up to this point

2) he has been given 60%+ offensive opportunities in all situations and has very little contribution

3) his offensive point shares were .3 this season and .2 the previous.

4) with 106 mins of PP time this season his power play unit produced 7 goals.

5) he is used HEAVILY offensively and is not producing. He was given so many opportunities to produce and was not living up to the expectations.

In 171GP he has 62points… which is pretty much 30 points a season.
 

Granted he is 21 and there is room to grow and improve, but up to this point there doesnt seem to be a ton of progress being made each season. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

[knucklehead91]

2 hours ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Definitely has great upside, just turned 21 and had 8 playoff points in 19 games last season. 4 goals in 10 games in the playoffs before as well. Montreal mismanaged Kotkaniemi and he will flourish in Carolina, his floor is a second line center with good size.  

Okay so define his upside and name a comparable player that you believe Kotkaniemi has the potential to turn into and how was Kotkaniemi mishandled? 

[Bure_Pavel]

17 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

Okay so define his upside and name a comparable player that you believe Kotkaniemi has the potential to turn into and how was Kotkaniemi mishandled? 

Id say a finnish Mark Scheifele is probably his ceiling, he was rushed to the NHL at 18 years old though and not put in a position to succeed. His development has seemed to stalled after his first NHL season. 

[qwijibo]

9 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Id say a finnish Mark Scheifele is probably his ceiling, he was rushed to the NHL at 18 years old though and not put in a position to succeed. His development has seemed to stalled after his first NHL season. 

He suffered a knee injury in his sophomore season and finished  the year in the minors regaining his confidence. Last season he played very sheltered minutes snd was given ample power play time that he didn’t convert on.  I do think the injury threw him off track development wise, but I don’t think I he’s been mishandled in any way.  He just turned 21. He has plenty of time to hit his ceiling, just because he hadn’t yet doesn’t mean Montreal screwed up his development 

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

59 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

Okay so define his upside and name a comparable player that you believe Kotkaniemi has the potential to turn into and how was Kotkaniemi mishandled? 

Well he plays with a ton of range, has good hockey IQ, borderline top-6 skills (at least for now), and a booming shot. Yes, there IS upside there. I think it was bullish of the Canes to offer him 6 mil+, but that doesn't take away from the fact that he will develop into a top-6/9 centre with two-way acumen that should at least be a 45-50 point player every season. Maybe Kesler is a nice comparable here. Yes, I know their styles are different (Kesler brought more of the snarl and agitation (amongst other things)), but Kesler didn't necessarily set the league on fire well before he turned into the player he did. Funny enough, he also signed an offersheet. This comparison is based on development trajectory and the fact that they are/were both indisputable top-9, two-way centres who are more than capable goal scorers. 

 

As far as him getting 'mishandled' goes (which I think may be a reach in some respects), the Habs didn't even start Caufield in the playoffs which says something. Sure, he could have gotten more rope in Montreal, but teams handle their players differently, and I don't even think Kotkaniemi was treated too unfairly. I think Kotkaniemi would have been able to manage in Montreal had he stayed, but I think that Carolina will be a better fit for him playing with other skilled two-way forwards like Aho, Necas, and Svechnikov - all of whom are surefire top-6 players. I like what Carolina did here, and even though they paid big money to sign Kotkaniemi, I think he's under less pressure to have to cement himself immediately as a top-flight centre. With the way things were shaping up in Montreal, he would have had to immediately fill the 2C role, and that could have very well set him up for failure. Now he'll be more sheltered on a team like Carolina in the same way that a guy like Podkolzin will be with us (both will likely start on the 3rd line). In fact, Kotkaniemi will likely start on the wing. Kotkaniemi, like Podkolzin, is expected to be a core piece), but both guys can be brought along slowly while they hone their crafts and just play their games. Both play on teams who are rising at very high trajectories, and both are being put into positions where they can evolve organically with their respective teams. I know one is getting paid 6+ while the other is on their entry-level deal, but both players have been drafted a year apart from the other and are big, skilled forwards with a refined two-way game, etc. Kotkaniemi is more set up for success as a Hurricane than he was as a Hab. Again, I can't stress enough that the price the Canes paid for him is a high one (right now), but to acquire a player like him that will grow nicely with this Canes' core, is either by trading a king's ransom to acquire him or to draft him 3rd overall.

Edited September 9, 2021 by Herberts Vasiljevs

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

.

Edited September 9, 2021 by Herberts Vasiljevs

[knucklehead91]

12 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Id say a finnish Mark Scheifele is probably his ceiling, he was rushed to the NHL at 18 years old though and not put in a position to succeed. His development has seemed to stalled after his first NHL season. 

1) Scheifele has consistently improved each year since his first season. His point totals have increased almost every single season. His goals have consistently climbed and now sit around 28-35 per season. Do you honestly see Kotkaniemi producing 30 goals consistently in the NHL?

2) Mark Scheifele > Kotkaniemi in every way shape and form and at the same point in their careers.

Scheifele has a nastiness to him, where as Kotkaniemi is more of a pest.

 

Kotkaniemi was 3rd overall…. 
Centres that were drafted between 3rd and 5th

Between ‘99-2017

Pettersson

D. Strome

Draisaitl

Bennett

Lindholm (Monahan was 6th)

Galchenyuk

R. Strome

Johansen

Duchene

Schenn

Turris

Toews

Backstrom

H. Sedin

 

At the end of Kotkaniemi’s career, how many of those guys careers will Kotkaniemi surpass?

 

I’d say his ceiling is closer to Turris or Ryan Strome than Scheifele. And he’d be fortunate to even be a Turris type of player. His season stats are similar to Turris’s first few years and he is utilized similar to Turris

I dont see him ever turning into a Scheifele type player imho

 

 

[Bure_Pavel]

47 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

He suffered a knee injury in his sophomore season and finished  the year in the minors regaining his confidence. Last season he played very sheltered minutes snd was given ample power play time that he didn’t convert on.  I do think the injury threw him off track development wise, but I don’t think I he’s been mishandled in any way.  He just turned 21. He has plenty of time to hit his ceiling, just because he hadn’t yet doesn’t mean Montreal screwed up his development 

The injury certainly played a part but I dont think he was happy with his deployment and is one of the reasons he signed the offer sheet.  

[Bure_Pavel]

3 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

1) Scheifele has consistently improved each year since his first season. His point totals have increased almost every single season. His goals have consistently climbed and now sit around 28-35 per season. Do you honestly see Kotkaniemi producing 30 goals consistently in the NHL?

2) Mark Scheifele > Kotkaniemi in every way shape and form and at the same point in their careers.

Scheifele has a nastiness to him, where as Kotkaniemi is more of a pest.

 

Kotkaniemi was 3rd overall…. 
Centres that were drafted between 3rd and 5th

Between ‘99-2017

Pettersson

D. Strome

Draisaitl

Bennett

Lindholm (Monahan was 6th)

Galchenyuk

R. Strome

Johansen

Duchene

Schenn

Turris

Toews

Backstrom

H. Sedin

 

At the end of Kotkaniemi’s career, how many of those guys careers will Kotkaniemi surpass?

 

I’d say his ceiling is closer to Turris or Ryan Strome than Scheifele. And he’d be fortunate to even be a Turris type of player. His season stats are similar to Turris’s first few years and he is utilized similar to Turris

I dont see him ever turning into a Scheifele type player imho

 

 

Probably Johansen is the closest on this list to Kotkaniemi. Johansen and Scheifele both broke out in the 4-5 year after being drafted, which is very common for an NHL center. Montreal better hope Kotkaniemi doesnt do the same.     

[knucklehead91]

55 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Probably Johansen is the closest on this list to Kotkaniemi. Johansen and Scheifele both broke out in the 4-5 year after being drafted, which is very common for an NHL center. Montreal better hope Kotkaniemi doesnt do the same.     

Johansen has been a beast in the circle since his 2nd year and hes pretty damn good in his own zone. JK hasnt taken control of the face-off dot and he is quite weak in his own zone. He has time to develop, but Johansen rapidly improved and made an impact on the PP whereas JK hasnt been very effective on the PP. Kotkaniemi is on a slow progression, similar to Turris. 

[Bure_Pavel]

4 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

Johansen has been a beast in the circle since his 2nd year and hes pretty damn good in his own zone. JK hasnt taken control of the face-off dot and he is quite weak in his own zone. He has time to develop, but Johansen rapidly improved and made an impact on the PP whereas JK hasnt been very effective on the PP. Kotkaniemi is on a slow progression, similar to Turris. 

Even if he becomes a bigger more defensively responsible Turris, its a big win for Carolina. Turris was an effective player up to 2017-18, just lacked the size and tenacity to be an elite center in the NHL. Turris in his 4th year after the draft scored at a 0.59 pts/game pace or 48 points in an 82 game season.