[Offer Sheet] Hurricanes offer sheet Jesperi Kotkaniemi

[qwijibo]

1 hour ago, Bure_Pavel said:

The injury certainly played a part but I dont think he was happy with his deployment and is one of the reasons he signed the offer sheet.  

He signed the offersheet because it was close to 3x what Montreal was offering 

[knucklehead91]

2 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Even if he becomes a bigger more defensively responsible Turris, its a big win for Carolina. Turris was an effective player up to 2017-18, just lacked the size and tenacity to be an elite center in the NHL. Turris in his 4th year after the draft scored at a 0.59 pts/game pace or 48 points in an 82 game season. 

But would you call that massive upside? Or a letdown for a 3rd overall pick. If Turris is his ceiling… what is his floor? Its kind of a scary thought that, Kotkaniemi’s peak projection or comparable I should say is Kyle Turris, IF he can reach his potential. No doubt Turris was a decent NHLer.. but hes the kinda guy you can find in the 2nd round or 3rd round.

[knucklehead91]

1 hour ago, Bure_Pavel said:

The injury certainly played a part but I dont think he was happy with his deployment and is one of the reasons he signed the offer sheet.  

His deployment was tons of offensive opportunity. Maybe a few more minutes of TOI… but he never really earned it. Regardless he was getting 14 mins average and lots of PP time.

[JM_]

44 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

His deployment was tons of offensive opportunity. Maybe a few more minutes of TOI… but he never really earned it. Regardless he was getting 14 mins average and lots of PP time.

tons? doesn't seem too out of balance to me for a top 6: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&playerid=8480829&sit=5v5&stype=2

 

Played decently defensively too. 

 

Maybe his low ice time was more of a coaching problem. 

[knucklehead91]

5 hours ago, Bure_Pavel said:

2 hours ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Id say a finnish Mark Scheifele is probably his ceiling, he was rushed to the NHL at 18 years old though and not put in a position to succeed. His development has seemed to stalled after his first NHL season. 

Definitely has great upside, just turned 21 and had 8 playoff points in 19 games last season. 4 goals in 10 games in the playoffs before as well. Montreal mismanaged Kotkaniemi and he will flourish in Carolina, his floor is a second line center with good size.  

Okay so the other thing I’d like to add to this is, how many years do you allow room for stalled development? And how much of that is on the player and their will/drive to succeed, versus being mishandled? Bo Horvat for example was a very weak skater in his first year. He came back the following season and he was also kinda just thrown into the NHL, he turned his weakness into a weapon in an offseason. His skating is one of his best attributes. Hes extremely powerful, so bloody strong on his feet. Kotkaniemi is entering his 4th season and in his last 2 seasons, there has been a fall off from his rookie season. He hasnt built on it or made improvements.

Why would a team, surrender draft picks, for a mishandled, stalled development, unimproved player? Why pay draft picks for a broken project that might take a few years to develop, who will be closing in on UFA years, when you could take your 1st round draft pick and have a fairly successful chance at drafting a player of Kotkaniemi’s projection. You could draft and develop a guy in your own system and handle him from the beginning until the end. Instead of taking on someones mishandled and derailed development project? Idk I just dont think it was a great move at this point in time, but only time will tell.

[Alflives]

6 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

Okay so the other thing I’d like to add to this is, how many years do you allow room for stalled development? And how much of that is on the player and their will/drive to succeed, versus being mishandled? Bo Horvat for example was a very weak skater in his first year. He came back the following season and he was also kinda just thrown into the NHL, he turned his weakness into a weapon in an offseason. His skating is one of his best attributes. Hes extremely powerful, so bloody strong on his feet. Kotkaniemi is entering his 4th season and in his last 2 seasons, there has been a fall off from his rookie season. He hasnt built on it or made improvements.

Why would a team, surrender draft picks, for a mishandled, stalled development, unimproved player? Why pay draft picks for a broken project that might take a few years to develop, who will be closing in on UFA years, when you could take your 1st round draft pick and have a fairly successful chance at drafting a player of Kotkaniemi’s projection. You could draft and develop a guy in your own system and handle him from the beginning until the end. Instead of taking on someones mishandled and derailed development project? Idk I just dont think it was a great move at this point in time, but only time will tell.

Habs will be giving up their isn first (likely about 12OA) in the Dvorak deal.  They will get the Cane’s first (likely about 24) as Compensation for JK.  They have little to no chance getting a JK level player (top six centre) with that pick.  Bergerclown got worked this summer.  He’s an embarrassment to the club, and the league.  

[knucklehead91]

27 minutes ago, JM_ said:

tons? doesn't seem too out of balance to me for a top 6: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&playerid=8480829&sit=5v5&stype=2

 

Played decently defensively too. 

 

Maybe his low ice time was more of a coaching problem. 

When a guy gets 60%+ of offensive zone starts, that is plenty of opportunity. Then to add to his zone starts he was gifted PP time and lots of it and he has done little to earn that PP time and proved nothing on the PP

 

First season: 

oZS 68.1% in all situations

oZS 61.9% at even strength

oZS 62.8% 5v5 close

oZS 65.5% 5v5 tied

 

PP 152.5 mins his PP unit only produced 9 goals

 

His CORSI was 60.5% in all situations. When you look at his zone starts 68.1% in all situations his line is losing possession. They dont drive possession. His CORSI should be closer or higher than his oZS if he is truly an effective player. They get an opportunity to start in the oppositions end, yet the puck is coming back the other way and possession is swaying in favour of opposition. Sure he is at 60% CORSI, but considering he spends most of his starts in the other zone, an 8% spread between zone starts and CORSI is a bad sign. And his short time in the NHL has continued that trend. His 2nd season was nearly a 10% difference in zone starts and CORSI…. Last season was a closer gap with a 4% difference. Which is improvement, so I will give him kudos there. But when you get into his zone starts its consistently at 60%. He logged 106 mins of PP time and his PP unit produced 7 goals. He has been given 14 mins of TOI because that is all he has shown he is worth with all the zone starts in his favour to show some offence and all the PP time he gets and yet he consistently fails to produce or improve the lines chances of capitalizing.

 

 

 

[Alflives]

Habs have had their worst off season ever.  Their clown of a GM needs to be out of the league permanently.  

[JM_]

31 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

When a guy gets 60%+ of offensive zone starts, that is plenty of opportunity. Then to add to his zone starts he was gifted PP time and lots of it and he has done little to earn that PP time and proved nothing on the PP

 

First season: 

oZS 68.1% in all situations

oZS 61.9% at even strength

oZS 62.8% 5v5 close

oZS 65.5% 5v5 tied

 

PP 152.5 mins his PP unit only produced 9 goals

 

His CORSI was 60.5% in all situations. When you look at his zone starts 68.1% in all situations his line is losing possession. They dont drive possession. His CORSI should be closer or higher than his oZS if he is truly an effective player. They get an opportunity to start in the oppositions end, yet the puck is coming back the other way and possession is swaying in favour of opposition. Sure he is at 60% CORSI, but considering he spends most of his starts in the other zone, an 8% spread between zone starts and CORSI is a bad sign. And his short time in the NHL has continued that trend. His 2nd season was nearly a 10% difference in zone starts and CORSI…. Last season was a closer gap with a 4% difference. Which is improvement, so I will give him kudos there. But when you get into his zone starts its consistently at 60%. He logged 106 mins of PP time and his PP unit produced 7 goals. He has been given 14 mins of TOI because that is all he has shown he is worth with all the zone starts in his favour to show some offence and all the PP time he gets and yet he consistently fails to produce or improve the lines chances of capitalizing.

 

 

 

OK well lets look at corsi then, and what his line mates were: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=MTL&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-01-13&td=2021-05-19&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8480829&p2=8470621&p3=8476981&p4=8475726&p5=0

 

He spent most of his time on lines with Perry, Toffoli and Anderson. Anderson and Perry without JK were terrible on CF. It also looks like Toffoli was helping out Andersons numbers a lot away form JK.

 

I don't see where your idea is supported when you look at how JK does with and without his main line mates. He's not the anchor on any of his lines. 

 

[Gawdzukes]

4 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

1) Scheifele has consistently improved each year since his first season. His point totals have increased almost every single season. His goals have consistently climbed and now sit around 28-35 per season. Do you honestly see Kotkaniemi producing 30 goals consistently in the NHL?

2) Mark Scheifele > Kotkaniemi in every way shape and form and at the same point in their careers.

Scheifele has a nastiness to him, where as Kotkaniemi is more of a pest.

 

Kotkaniemi was 3rd overall…. 
Centres that were drafted between 3rd and 5th

Between ‘99-2017

Pettersson

D. Strome

Draisaitl

Bennett

Lindholm (Monahan was 6th)

Galchenyuk

R. Strome

Johansen

Duchene

Schenn

Turris

Toews

Backstrom

H. Sedin

 

At the end of Kotkaniemi’s career, how many of those guys careers will Kotkaniemi surpass?

 

I’d say his ceiling is closer to Turris or Ryan Strome than Scheifele. And he’d be fortunate to even be a Turris type of player. His season stats are similar to Turris’s first few years and he is utilized similar to Turris

I dont see him ever turning into a Scheifele type player imho

 

 

Agreed 100%. That's a horrible take on Scheifle @Bure_Pavel

[knucklehead91]

2 hours ago, JM_ said:

OK well lets look at corsi then, and what his line mates were:https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=MTL&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-01-13&td=2021-05-19&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8480829&p2=8470621&p3=8476981&p4=8475726&p5=0

 

He spent most of his time on lines with Perry, Toffoli and Anderson. Anderson and Perry without JK were terrible on CF. It also looks like Toffoli was helping out Andersons numbers a lot away form JK.

 

I don't see where your idea is supported when you look at how JK does with and without his main line mates. He's not the anchor on any of his lines. 

 

 

Perry's avg TOI was 13:44

Anderson's avg TOI was 16:25

Toffoli's avg TOI was 17:31

Kotkaniemi's avg TOI was 14:48

 

Typically guys playing less than 15 minutes are 3rd line players. Kotkaniemi had plenty of chances to succeed and he did not take advantage of the opportunities. He failed to produce. Like you said, he was paired with guys like Toffoli, Anderson, Perry as well as Drouin.... Yet he only produced 5 goals and thats with a 60%+ oZS and nearly 2 mins of PP time per game.

https://www.rotowire.com/hockey/player.php?id=5696

 

Okay so looking at your link, if anything it indicates that Toffoli is the driving catalyst for possession for the most part. Kotkaniemi doesn't seem to drive possession in any of the combinations, he is never the common denominator. And like you said, Anderson and Perry's CORSI was quite bad without Kotkaniemi...... And without Toffoli, so it's not that they are missing JK, maybe its TT that is the reason their CORSI drops. Its such a mess of numbers and variations that it doesn't give a clear picture. Like I've said before, CORSI on its own isn't a justifiable stat to look at. You need to factor in zone starts. 58% CORSI and a 71% oZS = losing possession. He is a Centre.... He should have a good 200ft game and be helping drive possession, he is involved east+west north+south, yet no one seems to benefit from him. 

 

JK without Toffoli or Perry had a 50% CORSI..... with Toffoli his CORSI jumps to 60% I'd say Toffoli is driving the Possession. 

 

If you look at those CORSI numbers... They are all over the map with each combination for the most part, the only consistent CORSI boosting player is Toffoli.

 

Also... Just to note, Montreal's on ice sv% in the playoffs

Kotkaniemi .858oiSV% with JK on the ice in the playoffs.... So defensively he was kind of an absolute tragedy.

Tofu was .894oiSV%

Anderson .916oiSV%

Perry .909oiSV%

 

 

 

 

 

[iinatcc]

12 hours ago, Alflives said:

Habs have had their worst off season ever.  Their clown of a GM needs to be out of the league permanently.  

To be fair Bergavin probably made the right decision on the Kotkaniemi situation. Even if Kotkaniemi ends being a top 6 player his contract would have screwed up the salary cap structure of the team. For all we know next season Suzuki's camp would have asked 8 or 9 million if he Habs matched. 

 

From what I am hearing from the Habs media though is that they don't really see Kotkaniemi as a top 6 center anyways so Dvorak is actually an upgrade from Kotkaniemi in that spot. That said the counter argument is that the Habs should have just resigned Danault in the first place. 

 

But overall this was seen by the Habs media and fans a the "right" decision by Bergavin. 

 

 

 

 

[knucklehead91]

@Alflives@JM_@Bure_Pavel

Alright let me put it this way. 
Would you offersheet Kotkaniemi and surrender a 1st and 3rd to bring him to Vancouver? How would you feel if Benning made that move? You’d all probably lose your mind over it.

 

The majority of the fan base would first look at his pathetic goal totals and freak out, then they would see the 6.1mil and go ballistic and when they find out the details of giving up a 1st and 3rd, they would burn the city down.

[JM_]

8 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

 

Perry's avg TOI was 13:44

Anderson's avg TOI was 16:25

Toffoli's avg TOI was 17:31

Kotkaniemi's avg TOI was 14:48

 

Typically guys playing less than 15 minutes are 3rd line players. Kotkaniemi had plenty of chances to succeed and he did not take advantage of the opportunities. He failed to produce. Like you said, he was paired with guys like Toffoli, Anderson, Perry as well as Drouin.... Yet he only produced 5 goals and thats with a 60%+ oZS and nearly 2 mins of PP time per game.

https://www.rotowire.com/hockey/player.php?id=5696

 

Okay so looking at your link, if anything it indicates that Toffoli is the driving catalyst for possession for the most part. Kotkaniemi doesn't seem to drive possession in any of the combinations, he is never the common denominator. And like you said, Anderson and Perry's CORSI was quite bad without Kotkaniemi...... And without Toffoli, so it's not that they are missing JK, maybe its TT that is the reason their CORSI drops. Its such a mess of numbers and variations that it doesn't give a clear picture. Like I've said before, CORSI on its own isn't a justifiable stat to look at. You need to factor in zone starts. 58% CORSI and a 71% oZS = losing possession. He is a Centre.... He should have a good 200ft game and be helping drive possession, he is involved east+west north+south, yet no one seems to benefit from him. 

 

JK without Toffoli or Perry had a 50% CORSI..... with Toffoli his CORSI jumps to 60% I'd say Toffoli is driving the Possession. 

 

If you look at those CORSI numbers... They are all over the map with each combination for the most part, the only consistent CORSI boosting player is Toffoli.

 

Also... Just to note, Montreal's on ice sv% in the playoffs

Kotkaniemi .858oiSV% with JK on the ice in the playoffs.... So defensively he was kind of an absolute tragedy.

Tofu was .894oiSV%

Anderson .916oiSV%

Perry .909oiSV%

 

 

 

 

 

I think what the line combo data shows us is its pretty complex. For sure Toffoli was the driver a lot of the time. I don't think the numbers show JK was ineffective tho. Don't forget, Montreal also plays a low scoring style of game. 

 

Is JK Petey? nope. But whatever analysis Carolina has done they're pretty convinced his skill set fits in. So maybe JK is worth the #3 oa sport on their team, with their system, and not to what Montreal is trying to do. 

 

Edited September 10, 2021 by JM_

[JM_]

15 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

@Alflives@JM_@Bure_Pavel

Alright let me put it this way. 
Would you offersheet Kotkaniemi and surrender a 1st and 3rd to bring him to Vancouver? How would you feel if Benning made that move? You’d all probably lose your mind over it.

 

The majority of the fan base would first look at his pathetic goal totals and freak out, then they would see the 6.1mil and go ballistic and when they find out the details of giving up a 1st and 3rd, they would burn the city down.

I wouldn't, no. I would for a RHD tho. 

Edited September 10, 2021 by JM_

[Alflives]

34 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

@Alflives@JM_@Bure_Pavel

Alright let me put it this way. 
Would you offersheet Kotkaniemi and surrender a 1st and 3rd to bring him to Vancouver? How would you feel if Benning made that move? You’d all probably lose your mind over it.

 

The majority of the fan base would first look at his pathetic goal totals and freak out, then they would see the 6.1mil and go ballistic and when they find out the details of giving up a 1st and 3rd, they would burn the city down.

I hate the Habs.  Not as much as I hate the Leafs, but it's close.  It makes me happy to  see them have an embarrassingly bad summer (worst in their franchise's history).  Allowing JK to get stolen was the icing on the fun!!!  

[BPA]

From the Carolinas perspective, would their 1st and 3rd be better than what JK is right now?  Thus they probably think JK is the better bet than the picks they gave up.

 

MTL probably didn't want to lose JK but that cap hit is bad for any internal cap structure.   Also they probably want room for Suzuki's deal next year.  

[Bure_Pavel]

17 hours ago, knucklehead91 said:

But would you call that massive upside? Or a letdown for a 3rd overall pick. If Turris is his ceiling… what is his floor? Its kind of a scary thought that, Kotkaniemi’s peak projection or comparable I should say is Kyle Turris, IF he can reach his potential. No doubt Turris was a decent NHLer.. but hes the kinda guy you can find in the 2nd round or 3rd round.

I dont believe Turris is his ceiling, like I said proabably more in the mold of Johansen or Scheifele is his ceiling as he just turned 21.

 

1 hour ago, knucklehead91 said:

@Alflives@JM_@Bure_Pavel

Alright let me put it this way. 
Would you offersheet Kotkaniemi and surrender a 1st and 3rd to bring him to Vancouver? How would you feel if Benning made that move? You’d all probably lose your mind over it.

 

The majority of the fan base would first look at his pathetic goal totals and freak out, then they would see the 6.1mil and go ballistic and when they find out the details of giving up a 1st and 3rd, they would burn the city down.

I would have loved it, even better if you are a contender. Very low cost to acquire a 3rd overall pick three years from his draft year. I think he pots 20 goals and 45 points next year. 

[Bure_Pavel]

14 hours ago, Gawdzukes said:

Agreed 100%. That's a horrible take on Scheifle @Bure_Pavel

Scheifele wasn't always the dominate player he is today. It took some time to develop him. 

 

 Montréal Canadiens     NHL    56    5   15   20    12     -1    pts/game   0.36

 Winnipeg Jets               NHL    63  13  21   34     14       9    pts/game    0.54

 

Scheifele is clearly the better player at the same points in there careers, but I also think they did way better with his development. Jesperi should have spent one more year in Europe or the AHL.  

Edited September 10, 2021 by Bure_Pavel

[knucklehead91]

11 minutes ago, JM_ said:

I think what the line combo data shows us is its pretty complex. For sure Toffoli was the driver a lot of the time. I don't think the numbers show JK was ineffective tho. Don't forget, Montreal also plays a low scoring style of game. 

 

Is JK Petey? nope. But whatever analysis Carolina has done they're pretty convinced his skill set fits in. So maybe JK is worth the #3 oa sport on their team, with their system, and not to what Montreal is trying to do. 

 

Yea its definitely complex to break it all down. Not saying that JK hurt possession numbers, but he certainly didnt improve CORSI. So its not like he was a effective positively or negatively. He’s kinda just there.
Montreal’s low scoring game was middle of the league with 158goals with a 2.82GF/GP almost 3 goals per game is pretty decent considering the highest gp/g was Colorado with 3.52. 
Carolina had only scored 17 more goals than the Canadiens…. Kotkaniemi‘s 5 goals isnt going to be noticed at all…. Im sure he will hit 10-15 goals this season, but I just dont see him making a massive impact. He is going to be buried behind Aho and Staal